Reshuffle Could Make April A Hot Time, Politically

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL

Reshuffle could make April a hot time, politically

The Nation

Moves by new minister could affect Army deputy, Prayuth's ally Dapong

It has been a few months of uneasy calm between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the military. The political temperature has managed to keep from rising after the recent Cabinet reshuffle, but, in the eyes of keen watchers, barely just. Whether things will suddenly boil up remains to be seen, but in a few weeks' time, the name of General Dapong Rattanasuwan will likely become a focus of new attention. There are a few reasons for that, but chief among them is the fact that the upcoming mid-year military reshuffle could make or break his stride toward the Army's top post.

Dapong is currently deputy Army commander-in-chief. The reshuffle that is due in April could either cement a stepping stone that would take him to the summit of his Army career, or it could take him out of such an orbit. The man who will give the answer to that, or so it seems, is new Defence Minister Air Chief Marshal Sukampol Suwannathat. He, Dapong, and Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha are expected to dominate headline news as April approaches. This is said with a foregone conclusion, though, that one Thaksin Shinawatra will be pulling some strings behind the scenes.

Like Gen Prayuth, Dapong is not a popular figure among the red shirts, as well as the ruling Pheu Thai Party. Prayuth still has two years left before his retirement, and kicking him upstairs now will not be easy. This is why Dapong, a close ally of Prayuth, has become a subject of intense speculation. Removing Dapong from a key Army position and putting him somewhere else could be like killing two birds with one stone. Without Dapong as a lynchpin for his clout, Prayuth would be weakened. And if Dapong is regarded as a possible future threat, he would be kept at bay, at least for a while.

The mid-year reshuffle, therefore, could clear the air over why the Yingluck government needed a new defence minister when there was apparently no crisis that warranted such a change. Sukampol's predecessor Yuthasak Sasiprapha seemed to be on good terms with military leaders. For any other government, that should be a good sign. Apparently, that's not the case with the Yingluck administration.

Analysts say that former defence minister Yuthasak may have become too cordial with current military leaders to cross them over key transfers. Certainly, as far as this government is concerned, "cordial" doesn't ensure stability. If the government's objective is to transform the military into a back-up of its political power, significant changes are needed. Sukampol, it is said, may be the man more suited to that kind of an agenda.

As of now, Sukampol and Prayuth are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, exchanging nice greetings laden with cryptic words through the media. Sukampol said both of them were "straight talkers", a tribute that should make it easier for them to understand each other. Sukampol claimed he valued blunt honesty more than sweet but insincere talk. Prayuth, meanwhile, described Sukampol as a brother. Brothers don't hurt each other, the Army chief said.

Whether they are "brothers", or "friends", or soon-to-be adversaries, the month of April is not far off. We shall soon see if the current niceties constitute the calm before a storm. While Thailand requires soul-searching on political and military powers, on how to "democratise" the armed forces and on where to draw the line in the "democratisation" process, it is doubtful the country is immune to another major showdown now.

Even in "peace time", every military reshuffle tends to be accompanied by political tension. And there is no indication whatsoever that the one coming in April will be an exception. In addition to that, nobody is certain if society has become more flexible or more fragile when it comes to absorbing shocks of big magnitude.

-- The Nation 2012-01-29