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Analysis: Beginning Of The End Of Thaksin?


george

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IMHO, "JARUWAN (Iron Lady) MAINTAKA"?. She's educated, experienced, The king likes her honesty and you not going to find anyone more honest.

She went after corruptions in Thailand with a vengence and not fearful of Toxin's repercussioned as well. Thats the kind of person you need to make a better Thailand

She gets my vote. :o

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The Nation newspaper gained my great admiration back in 1992 when they unflinchingly covered the tragedy of Suchinda's short-lived military dictatorship that resulted in the Black May massacres. HM the King saved Thailand by calling Suchinda on the carpet before him, along with Chamlong. HM talked sense into Suchinda in private rather more forcefully that day than he just did publically to Thaksin. Suchinda resigned and Anand was brought in to hold the government together.

Thankfully, His Majesty, Anand and The Nation are all still with us in this latest test of Thai democracy. Those of us who have been loyal fans of The Nation, over the 13 years since Suchinda was forced to leave, will I hope, join me in the editors' latest political optimism. The Nation's editorials, opinion essays and letters have been, for me at least, a daily source of hope, information and inspiration. Since Thaksin's advent and subsequent strangulation of the media, including Bangkok Post, The Nation seems now to be the only uncensored mass media source of news and information left in Thailand.

The Nation's analysis quoted above is incredibly hopeful--almost too good to be true. I really, really want to believe that Thaksin's imminent demise is possible. Thailand desperately needs a force for democracy like Abhisit. Surely there is someone who will stand up for honesty, the moral tenets of Buddhism, the 1997 constitution, and the rule of law. Surely not everyone in Thailand is out only to enrich himself, family, business and friends--at the expense of the rest of us. Other posters have warned about being careful what one wishes for. True enough. Even Thaksin's kleptocracy is probably preferable to a military dictatorship like in Burma, or even under Suchinda. Still, I would be happy to give life after Thaksin a go. My only problem with The Nation's optimism is historical precedent. Dictators of any kind find it really hard to let go and, given half a chance, tend to hang on for dear life; for example, Stalin (31 years), Suharto (31 years), Lee Kuan Yew (31 years), Mao Zedong (27 years), Mahathir Mohammed (22 years), Ne Win (26 years) and now Than Shwe (13 years and counting) in poor Burma, Hun Sen (20 years and counting). I could of course go on, but 'nuff said. Let's hope Thaksin does not follow in their footsteps, but I'll believe his political end when I see it.

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Abhisit Vejjajiva, Leader of the Democrat Party and next PM?

After graduating from Eton College, he enrolled at Oxford University, where he graduated with a Bachelor’s degree (first class honours) in philosophy, politics and economics and a Master’s degree in economics. He also received his Bachelor’s degree in law from Ramkamhaeng University, Thailand. After graduation, he taught economics at Thammasat University and Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He started his career in politics in 1992 as a Democrat MP for Bangkok. He was reelected to the same seat in 1995 and 1996. In the elections of 2001 and 2005, he was returned to parliament as a Party List MP for the Democrat Party. Throughout his political career, he has served as Democrat Party spokesman, Government spokesman, Deputy-Secretary to the Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Chairman of the House Education Affairs Committee and Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office. Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva is married to dentist Pimpen Sakuntabhai. They have two children.

Since February 2005, he has been serving as leader of the opposition Democrat Party.

Educated and honest. Go for him. :o

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...Dictators of any kind find it really hard to let go and, given half a chance, tend to hang on for dear life;  for example, Stalin (31 years),  Suharto (31 years), Lee Kuan Yew (31 years), Mao Zedong (27 years), Mahathir Mohammed (22 years), Ne Win (26 years)  and now Than Shwe (13 years and counting) in poor Burma, Hun Sen (20 years and counting). 

thalien8, I agree with what you wrote except I don't think its fair to lump Harry Lee in with these undeniable gangsters.

He never butchered his own people nor did he rob them blind and impoverish them. Quite the opposite, he lifted S'pore from nothing to first-world status in two generations.

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How about this one?

On tv last evening, the Nation news were mentioning that the insurgents that have "apparently" surrendered a few days ago may be getting paid to do it...  :o

yes indeed... and more

A legislator from Thailand’s leading opposition party accused the government Tuesday of luring southern Muslims to “re-education“ camps with a false offer of a free trip to Bangkok.
he's also got his plate full with charges against his sister:
A newspaper columnist told a court yesterday businessman Latthapol Kesakothin showed him evidence of paying a Bt25-million bribe to businesswoman Yaowaret Shinawatra, younger sister of the PM. “Latthapol showed me the records of bank transactions and an agreement in which Yaowaret demanded Bt25 million in exchange for her lobbying for the car-park contract,” Amporn Pimpipat said from the stand.

and his hand-picked Interior Minister:

The opposition yesterday called for the establishment of an independent inquiry to investigate Interior Minister ACM Kongsak Wanthana following corruption allegations involving a deal to purchase a fleet of Russian fighter jets.

“The allegations are serious and the alleged commissions involved are enormously high, at 3.5 billion baht. Since the issue has received extensive press coverage and hence aroused a great deal of public interest, an independent inquiry should be set up to get down to the bottom of this matter,” Democrat party deputy leader Alongkorn Pollabutr told ThaiDay last night.

and questions over his kids being #1 and #4 in the wealthiest stockholders list:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=53874&hl=

He's always kept busy with so many scandals that always seem to be going on at once...

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The Nation quoted Senate Speaker Suchon Chaleekrua as saying the Khunying Jaruwan case will be resolved as a New Year present for Thais, presumably that means she gets her job back. But how much time is left for her term? Not a lot.

A prominent political professor recently said the Thai constitution is like a grand house, finely built but with baboons living in it.

As recent columnists have remarked, you can have the finest constitution in the world but if a sufficient number of people are determined to abuse it then there's little hope, as now.

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There is no alternative to Thaksin, that's the problem. I don't mind his public policies, I just don't like his personality. He is the only guy who can make things happen. I hope he stays in power.

The other Democrat rookie doesn't make it for me. Lamb to be sacrificed ? too young.

Yeah, and the Germans once thought there was no alternative to Hitler either. After all, didn't he "make things happen"?

Thaksin's apologists always argue "sure, he's an authoritarian, but he 'gets things done', delievers results." But even this is a myth. Who remembers the PM's promise to solve the southern troubles in three months? And his pledge when he was Deputy PM in 1995 to solve Bangkok's traffic problems in six months??? He's had 5 years as PM, and Bangkok's traffic is as miserable as ever. Not a single track has been laid for a new mass transit project since he came to power (the subway that opened last year was started by a previous government). 10 new routes to open by 2009? Dream on. The project has been constantly delayed and rewritten to please vested interests.

And you call Thaksin "the only guy who can make things happen"?

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There is no alternative to Thaksin, that's the problem. I don't mind his public policies, I just don't like his personality. He is the only guy who can make things happen. I hope he stays in power.

The other Democrat rookie doesn't make it for me. Lamb to be sacrificed ? too young.

Yeah, and the Germans once thought there was no alternative to Hitler either. After all, didn't he "make things happen"?

Thaksin's apologists always argue "sure, he's an authoritarian, but he 'gets things done', delievers results." But even this is a myth. Who remembers the PM's promise to solve the southern troubles in three months? And his pledge when he was Deputy PM in 1995 to solve Bangkok's traffic problems in six months??? He's had 5 years as PM, and Bangkok's traffic is as miserable as ever. Not a single track has been laid for a new mass transit project since he came to power (the subway that opened last year was started by a previous government). 10 new routes to open by 2009? Dream on. The project has been constantly delayed and rewritten to please vested interests.

And you call Thaksin "the only guy who can make things happen"?

"tettyan" may be a newbie, but he's absolutely dead right with his comments!

There can be no real defence of Toxin, he's in it for as much as he can get out of it. He has no shame. That's the bottom line. Thailand is heading for major financial problems over the next few years and he's to blame. Lies, deception, corruption, exaggeration, intimidation,confrontation. The list goes on. And so does he...................for now. But things are slowly starting to unwind or as the Brits say,"Things are going pear shaped"

After the dressing down he received on Dec 5th, he was humbled but not crippled and the next year will be his undoing. Hopefully..

The middle classes in Bangkok have finally started to stir after being kick started by Sondhi and his agenda and hopefully the upcountry people will come to realise that the promise of a cow in every barn and a mobile phone in every pot will not make them happy.

This government has shown no leadership in the ASEAN group when it comes to dealing with the pariahs in Burma, that has been left up to Malaysia and the Philippines. Why? Because a certain politician and his family empire stand to gain an awful lot from providing satellite and telecoms technology to the goons under Than Shwe. Plus, if Burma ever opens up, you can kiss the Thai tourism industry goodbye within 5 years.

None of his "Wars on............" have been won under his "leadership. The drug war was merely the wipeout of the lower and middlemen, the south is still boiling, poverty is still a major problem, education is still inferior, pollution has been increasing,corruption is still rife, traffic in Bangkok now is worse than 5 years ago and the once vibrant nightlife is staggering from ill conceived ideas re closing times and alcohol consumption..

Meanwhile in parliament "A Few :D Good :D Men" are wondering how much time they have left to plunder the people's coffers before Jaruvan comes back and catches them with dirty hands.

I have lived and worked in Thailand for only 5 years but I love the country, the people, the way of life and I care enough to believe that there has to be an end to this orgy of greed ,and soon.

The Thai people deserve better and hopefully in the coming months and years they will get a better deal. They deserve more than what they have at the moment that's for sure.As for leadership, so far the only face IMHO with any credibilty is Abhisit Vejjajiva's. :o

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OVERDRIVE: From grass-roots politics to Thailand Grand Sale

Is Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra putting Thailand up for sale? It really looks like it. On Wednesday, more than 100 ambassadors, diplomats and international-agency heads went shopping at Government House. Thaksin looked very comfortable in his role of salesman. He appealed to his foreign guests to take a look at all the key sectors of Thailand, from mass transit systems, water resources and education to defence, which he announced were to be opened up to foreign investors.

It was his biggest showcase ever for the Bt1.7 trillion in planned mega-projects, which have become the hallmark of his new policy to prop up the Thai economy and which have completely replaced his grass-roots populist policies.

Several of the diplomats who attended the prime minister’s road show raised their eyebrows over Thaksin’s sales pitch. Never before had a leader of a country pledged to open up all the key sectors of country in this fashion to foreigners without having to consult his domestic constituents. It seems that Thaksin feels his bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs) are not moving fast enough to open up Thailand.

After he made his presentation on the Thailand Grand Sale, he did not take any questions from the floor. The ambassadors, diplomats and other guests were led to another room within Government House to see what deals were available in the sectors they were interested in. All the Cabinet ministers were there, as well as other top Thai policymakers. Officials from key ministries manned booths detailing what was up for grabs. A handful of senior military officers welcomed foreign guests at the Defence Ministry’s booth with information packages. Chaturon Chaisang, the education minister, guarded his ministry’s booth. Pongsak Ruktapongpisal, the transport minister, and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, the agriculture minister, were also on hand at their booths to welcome the foreign guests with brochures.

The scene looked like one of the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s travel marts, in which the tourism agency brings together hotel tour operators to meet with foreign buyers. But the Thailand Grand Sale was a step above that, done at a national level, involving all the key ministries and agencies of Thailand.

The ambassadors, diplomats and international-agency heads that picked up the information packages are now expected to put data related to the Thailand Grand Sale on their websites so that private-sector companies in their home countries can do their homework and prepare to take a piece of the action.

Does Thaksin know what he is doing? As you might recall, when Thaksin first came to office in 2001, he campaigned on a platform centred on nationalism. At that time, the country was still suffering a hangover from the 1997 economic crisis. He denounced the Democrat government for selling Thai assets to foreigners at cheap prices. He vowed that he would never sell off Thailand. He pledged to revive the Thai economy by making easy credit available to people at the grass-roots level. Then he embarked on a dual-track policy, hoping to balance domestic demand and exports. In the process, he lifted the economy out of the doldrums by spending money like crazy on populist programmes and forcing state-owned banks to finance all his pet projects.

Thaksinomics is running out of steam. All the domestic-led policies have failed to become the backbone of an economic recovery. The grass-roots populist policies have not worked and have saddled rural folks with debt. The structural reform necessary to lay the foundation for future growth never got off the ground. Instead, the Thaksin government has become addicted to big spending. This has led to corruption scandals like there is no tomorrow.

So what is his real motivation for the Thailand Grand Sale? First, it could be a ploy to delay the construction of the Bt550-billion-worth of mass transit system projects slated for Bangkok. The government is quickly running out of cash. The Bank of Thailand has warned that the hasty implementation of the mega-projects might further accentuate the country’s deficits. Knowing that it would never be able to invest in the mass transit system next year, the government has delayed its bidding until the middle of next year. Who knows what’s happening to the money that’s supposed to be spent on mass transit projects?

Second, by asking the foreign investors to submit their investment proposals, the Thaksin government hopes it might get all the information it needs about the mega-projects. Then it can squeeze out the best deal with the bidder it has in mind. Past practices of this government show that it likes to deal with only one big bidder for a lump sum, instead of spreading deals among several bidders. For instance, the Laem Chabang Deep-Sea Port deal was awarded to Hutchison Whampoa; the duty-free shops deal was awarded to King Power.

Third, the Thaksin government still wants to protect the telecom industry, particularly the 3G business. We didn’t see the Thaksin government opening up the telecom sector at the Thailand Grand Sale. You already know why that was the case. Finally, in opening up Thailand, the Thaksin government realises that it can no longer depend on domestic demand or the populist policies to drive economic growth. It really needs foreign money to prop up the Thai economy again.

From grass-roots policies to the Thailand Grand Sale, you have to admire our leader for making the best out of situations he gets himself into, without thinking of Thailand’s future.

Source: The Nation - December 16, 2005

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EDITORIAL: You get what you vote for

Source: The Nation - December 16, 2005

Much of the Thai electorate now concludes that the gamble it took in the last election isn’t really paying off. Less than a year into his second term as prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra finds himself struggling for political survival.

Faced with growing discontent, which has for now turned the mostly urban, educated middle class against him, the once-tenacious and supremely confident prime minister has switched into defensive mode. The crisis of confidence centres around the widely held perception or realisation that Thaksin’s leadership is exacting an unacceptably high cost from society in the forms of large-scale corruption and shrinking civil liberties. No Thai government in recent memory has treated people with greater disrespect.

The majority of the electorate, comprising mostly rural and urban poor, as well as the cross-section of the population that has been persuaded by populist policies, voted for Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party in the last general election. In a way, people deserve the kind of government they put in office.

In other words, people must have weighed the costs and benefits of granting the Thaksin administration another mandate to rule, knowing full well from their experience of the prime minister’s first term what these costs entailed. In exchange for promises of prosperity, the prime minister demands unquestioned obedience.

That explained why Thaksin managed to purge all government critics from the airwaves of broadcast media, all of them controlled by the government, and tamed most of the print media outlets through intimidation and coercion, without so much as attracting broad-based public resistance.

It cannot be denied that Thais in general have been willing participants in this politics of trade-offs. It is as if they were telling themselves that corruption and erosion of civil liberties are the cost that we paid to have decisive leadership that would bring the prosperity that Thaksin claimed to represent.

But many people did not expect the Thaksin administration to break all the rules, to engage in alleged wholesale corruption. Thaksin’s alleged worst offence can be summed up as nothing short of undermining the Constitution, the country’s highest law, which he vowed to defend in his oath of office.

The outbreak of public discontent spearheaded by an unlikely pro-democracy advocate, media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, indicated that a lot of people who were once lured by Thaksin’s numerous promises, including populist policies or favourite treatment, have woken up disenchanted. While the stirring of a politically powerful middle class unhappy with the government should not be underestimated, any real change in the Thaksin administration will likely come from within the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party.

The party, despite its overwhelming majority in the House of Representatives, has a serious structural flaw owing to the fact that it comprises several rival factions. The party’s meteoric rise, made possible by a series of mergers and acquisitions of other political parties, means that it was and remains a patchwork of loosely connected groups of politicians with diverse and conflicting interests. The glue that holds these politicians together is the benefits that they expect to gain from associating themselves with the once hugely popular Thaksin, who continues to wield virtually limitless power of patronage.

Each faction, which is a fiefdom unto itself, is given a quota of Cabinet posts, parliamentary committee seats and so on, to be distributed among its members. What they do with those political positions is to advance their largely selfish interests under the cloak of service to the public good. When all is well and good, his fractious Thai Rak Thai Party can be expected to maintain a semblance of unity and to comply with every whim and desire of Thaksin as long as his popularity remains unchallenged. But this is no ordinary time and Thaksin’s popularity is taking a heavy beating and threatening to nosedive.

Factions within the Thai Rak Thai Party are now reacting in an unpredictable manner. Such is the anguish of a man who succeeded in achieving top political office in such a slapdash fashion. It is some kind of poetic justice that the doctor should taste his own medicine.

The question facing Thaksin’s beleaguered leadership is: will factions within his Thai Rak Thai Party, or indeed his admirers and the general Thai public, for that matter, stay bought?

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RIVAL PARTIES HEAD OPPOSITE WAYS: Democrats focused on Isaan, Thai Rak Thai on Bangkok

With political tension looming in the Kingdom, the ruling party and main opposition party will be making “decisive” moves when they hold political conventions this weekend. The difference, however, is that the Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats are heading towards opposite destinations and goals. The TRT has shifted its assembly venue south from Chiang Mai –Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s home province – to Bangkok, where it holds 32 of the 37 constituencies.

The ruling party is struggling to survive a series of political crises and regain the popularity it enjoyed in its first four-year term.

The Democrats, on the other hand, will be heading to Udon Thani province in the Northeast – the region dubbed the party's “weakest link” as it won just two of the 137 constituencies there in the February 6 election.

For the Democrats, this is a golden opportunity to sway the loyalty of voters in the ruling party’s biggest stronghold.

Although leading TRT members have denied that the sudden change of the venue has anything to do with the plunging popularity of the government and Thaksin himself, it comes at a time of falling confidence in the government among Bangkok voters. Significantly, the premier asked all 375 TRT MPs to join the party’s rallies to be held in all the capital’s constituencies.

The capital is home to the influential middle class – a symbol of the government’s legitimacy to rule the country – and the TRT hopes to win their hearts again with “new convincing promises”.

While TRT bigwigs scramble to restore the party’s “legitimacy”, Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has little to be concerned about thanks to maverick media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul’s disclosures of alleged irregularities involving Thaksin’s family and cronies.

Although Sondhi has never praised his long-time opponents the Democrats during his talk shows criticising the government, he has done enough for the Thailand’s oldest political party.

What the Democrats will do is follow up on Sondhi’s efforts and convince voters that the TRT has no legitimacy to rule the country. They have already begun with a series of graft allegations against the government along Sondhi’s lines. What will assist their foray into the Northeast, however, is the government’s rift with two local groups – supporters of revered monk Luangta Maha Bua over the appointment of an acting supreme patriarch, and teacher associations opposed to transferring authority over schools to local administrative agencies.

These two issues have dragged the TRT’s popularity in northeastern constituencies to a new low and several MPs from the region have expressed concern about the situation in interviews to the press.

This weekend will be crucial for both the Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats. It remains to be seen which party will make the most of it.

Source: The Nation Editorial - December 16, 2005

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May Khunying Jaruwan return to her rightful place as Auditor of the Realm. As I recall, she was kicked out of office, against HM the King's wishes, just when she was making some real inroads against the huge corruption scams in the new airport's construction. She was doing her job too well. Some of the scammers felt themselves to actually be in danger of being discovered and (horror of horrors) punished. Oh nooooo, this could not happen!!! She seems to still be ready, willing and quite able to carry out Toxin's false pledge to stop corruption, even without receipts.

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I tend to think Toxin's support level in the last election was somewhat illusory.

He was handed a gift with the tsunami enabling him to pose as a strong, independent hero and tons of free television coverage showcasing his act (sound familiar, anyone?).

Opposition parties didn't have much chance against that.

Now its a year later and the tsunami is history and he isn't bathed in his heroic aura anymore.

Kind of like waking up in the morning to find she isn't the stunner you thought she was in the gogo. :o

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Fellow Toxin haters, who else would you nominate to constitute a 3 part Axis of Evil? My own choice:

Toxin + Attila the Hun (Sen) + Son of a Bush

Unfortunately I'm a US national, live in Thailand and work in Cambodia, so I'm 3 for 3 and can't watch the news without feeling nauseated.....

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Fellow Toxin haters, who else would you nominate to constitute a 3 part Axis of Evil? My own choice:

Toxin + Attila the Hun (Sen) + Son of a Bush

Unfortunately I'm a US national, live in Thailand and work in Cambodia, so I'm 3 for 3 and can't watch the news without feeling nauseated.....

If you really want to go all the way with being nauseated and throwing up, listen to the 7 o clock evening news/propaganda on Metropolis 107FM, according to them, we live in a perfect world. :o

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Fellow Toxin haters, who else would you nominate to constitute a 3 part Axis of Evil? My own choice:

Toxin + Attila the Hun (Sen) + Son of a Bush

Unfortunately I'm a US national, live in Thailand and work in Cambodia, so I'm 3 for 3 and can't watch the news without feeling nauseated.....

You forgot Berlusconi :o but that's still about right :D

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Fellow Toxin haters, who else would you nominate to constitute a 3 part Axis of Evil? My own choice:

Toxin + Attila the Hun (Sen) + Son of a Bush

Unfortunately I'm a US national, live in Thailand and work in Cambodia, so I'm 3 for 3 and can't watch the news without feeling nauseated.....

You forgot Berlusconi :o but that's still about right :D

That Mugabe feller should be in this team picture as well. Then again, most of central Africa has been wallowing in it for so long now, it's hard to single any one of them out.

Kim Jong-Il anyone? I know, he's on Shrub's list too, but c'mon, there's plenty of evil for everybody right here.

jb

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Shrub is just a clueless dupe.

Dickless (5D) Cheney is your man.

A snake oil salesman and an arm dealer. How better could it be ?

Cheney is the Sith Lord

Shrub is only a young Apprentice

True...but there's that arrogant pride the Son of a Bush (AKA Shrub) takes in his cluelessness....Cheney at least slinks about and largely operates from beneath the rocks as an evil snake should.Plus, there is the unending agony of the fact that millions of people actually VOTED for the Shrub

:o

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Lets keep Bush out of the toxin thread.

Its so oooooo boring

Shrub is just a clueless dupe.

Dickless (5D) Cheney is your man.

A snake oil salesman and an arm dealer. How better could it be ?

Cheney is the Sith Lord

Shrub is only a young Apprentice

True...but there's that arrogant pride the Son of a Bush (AKA Shrub) takes in his cluelessness....Cheney at least slinks about and largely operates from beneath the rocks as an evil snake should.Plus, there is the unending agony of the fact that millions of people actually VOTED for the Shrub

:o

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The description under the title of this topic talks about a 'quick' downfall for Thaksin....so how quick will it be....its been a couple three weeks now....will we be dabating about his 'quick' downfall in 3 months?...6 months?...1 year?....5 years?....

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The description under the title of this topic talks about a 'quick' downfall for Thaksin....so how quick will it be....its been a couple three weeks now....will we be dabating about his 'quick' downfall in 3 months?...6 months?...1 year?....5 years?....

Should be around the time that his term ends. And then the whingers will have a new fellow to blame for their own insecurities and life's failures.

:o

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