French And Greek Elections Results?

[IMA_FARANG]

Just looking for opinions from those on this forum topic who pay attention to such things....

Do you think...either way...that the latest French and Greek elections results....a Socialist elected in France and an anti austerity party doing quite well in Greece....will affect Euro, Pound, and Dollar baht exchange rates?

Would like opinions on that.

Discuss please.

Edited May 7, 2012 by IMA_FARANG

[MichaelJohn]

Weaker Euro for quite awhile.

Pound may get dragged down.

US$ continue to appreciate.

One view of many!

[rakman]

Possible disintegration of the Euro, Greece being the first domino, followed by (take your pick) Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland? Although, the "must rescue Greece by [pick a date]" scare tactics seem lame now. Full impact of the election and change of economic direction may take some time to fully play out. Too much uncertainty now.

At some point, massive deficit spending will end by default on the loans or no one will buy the loans at any price, or possibly war, certainly more rioting as seen in Greece.

Seems there is a race to bottom for politicians to devalue their countries currency, which in inflationary to the citizenry. The idea is exports become much cheaper, as if "everybody outside the country wants what we produce and it will bolster production" hardly works when everybody is in the same boat.

Thai Baht will float along, but may get help from the Chinese if there are resources they want. As long as there is investment in Thailand, the Baht will be relatively stable, but their neighbors may become more attractive.

Countries with a manufacturing base will start to recover, more jobs created and more people employed. Countries without, it's going to be ugly.

If oil stays over US$110/barrel (Brent), then global recovery will take a long time. If the US Federal Reserve goes for QE3, which is possible if the recovery has stalled, then oil will go over US$130/barrel (Brent), which is a disaster.

[IMA_FARANG]

Updating on this topic .... just saw that the New Democracy party...with the most elected ministers but who does NOT have enougth ministers to form a majority government in Greece just recently announced that a colalition with other parties to form a government is very likely NOT to be possible.

Looks like a long and troubled process of forming a new government in Greece.

The largest group of ministers now is an anti-austerity and get-out-of-the Euro/EuroZone bloc.

I personally expect Greece to abandon the Eurozone and the Euro within the next few months.

My opinion: Greece will default on the bailout loans. There is a deep anger in Greece against the French and German banks.

The U.K. also and British banks.

In Greece the old Euro-Capitalist economics is going to die....and that will include drowning the E.U., the Eurozone, and the Euro in it's wake.

But...we shall have to see what happens.

Edited May 7, 2012 by IMA_FARANG

[Traxster]

Correct me if I'm wrong ( and I'm sure someone will)

but it seems to me that

before the EU was invented one hardly ever heard of countries going down the financial tube.

But lately,it seems that every two or three months another member of the EU announces that it needs X amount of billions of Euros

to keep it from financial disaster.

In the old days you might be able to claim that,'it's a communist plot', but not any more.

Apart from dishing out billions and billions of Euros,there doesn't seem to be any way out of this particular financial hole.

What's happening ??

[fvw53]

In 1946 the US debt was 130 pct of its GDP (after WW II) and in 2011 they reached again this level (after two wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and tax cuts to the super rich)

- in 1946 nobody panicked, on the contrary everybody was optimistic but taxation had to go up to (even in 1953 - 1956 under Republican President Eisenhower they reached temporary the highest taxation of their history with up to 90 pct for the super rich)

Conclusion :

- you have a good economy as long as the people believe the economy is good

- you have a bad economy if people believe the economy is bad

In Greece they reached in 2011 also a public debt which is 130 pct of their GDP but the majority of the people seems to be pessimistic about the future, so....

A good "alternative source of information" is Max Keiser

QUOTE

Keiser is the creator, co-founder and former CEO of HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange, later sold to Cantor Fitzgerald.

Max co-created the Hollywood Stock Exchange with Michael R. Burns,which allows traders to exchange virtual securities such as "MovieStocks", and "StarBonds" and convertible virtual currency, the Hollywood Dollar.

He can know what he talks about...

UNQUOTE

http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-280-max-keiser/

[thaigold]

Vive La France

The French election is proof, written heavily in bas-relief that the proles can withstand abuse for only so long. The capitalist banking system, in symbiosis with Wall Street and London has unleashed the dogs of greed upon the muddled masses though the instrumentality of the World Bank and the IMF. They are soon to reap the rewards of their profligate and predatory lending - in spades.

Many say that capitalism is the most effective system to manage, disperse, and multiply the fruits of man’s labors – but, like a Peterbuilt diesel, or a constant speed propeller; if not regulated they simply blow up with disastrous results.

Unregulated American capitalism created this modern day Hydra, and its teeth have been sown. A punishing price is to be paid by all who drank this get-rich-quick Kool-Aid.

Now pass me that Ayn Rand doobie. I need a hit.

[Pib]

Seems the public in some European nations are saying enough is enough in austerity packages and the politicians who voted for the packages. And in the U.S. there has basically been gridlock for several years in terms of tackling the budget deficit and making any real tax/benefit changes...and with this being election year the gridlock will continue. But IMHO many European nations (many of which have high debts) are in for a very rough time over the coming years and their currencies will depreciate against many other currencies such as the Thai Baht. With the US Dollar being the predominate reserve currency used worldwide it will probably remain in a fairly narrow range against the baht. Yeap, that's what my weegee board just told me, and I expect my crystal ball would have said the same thing but its all fogged-up now days.

[rakman]

In 1946 the US debt was 130 pct of its GDP (after WW II) and in 2011 they reached again this level (after two wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and tax cuts to the super rich)

- in 1946 nobody panicked, on the contrary everybody was optimistic but taxation had to go up to (even in 1953 - 1956 under Republican President Eisenhower they reached temporary the highest taxation of their history with up to 90 pct for the super rich)

Conclusion :

- you have a good economy as long as the people believe the economy is good

- you have a bad economy if people believe the economy is bad

In Greece they reached in 2011 also a public debt which is 130 pct of their GDP but the majority of the people seems to be pessimistic about the future, so....

A good "alternative source of information" is Max Keiser

QUOTE

Keiser is the creator, co-founder and former CEO of HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange, later sold to Cantor Fitzgerald.

Max co-created the Hollywood Stock Exchange with Michael R. Burns,which allows traders to exchange virtual securities such as "MovieStocks", and "StarBonds" and convertible virtual currency, the Hollywood Dollar.

He can know what he talks about...

UNQUOTE

http://rt.com/progra...280-max-keiser/

You forgot the Vietnam war and continued deficit spending for the last 70 years. Plus only since 2007 has the deficit spending hit the near or greater than US$ 1 Trillion mark. Quit blaming the deficit on the "rich". The "rich" pay 37% of the total US Federal Tax. How about the 49% of workers in the US don't pay Income tax and 20% of those get substantial "income" back from the tax man.

The US (as many other countries) deficit problem isn't taxation, it's out of control government spending.

[rakman]

Seems the public in some European nations are saying enough is enough in austerity packages and the politicians who voted for the packages. And in the U.S. there has basically been gridlock for several years in terms of tackling the budget deficit and making any real tax/benefit changes...and with this being election year the gridlock will continue. But IMHO many European nations (many of which have high debts) are in for a very rough time over the coming years and their currencies will depreciate against many other currencies such as the Thai Baht. With the US Dollar being the predominate reserve currency used worldwide it will probably remain in a fairly narrow range against the baht. Yeap, that's what my weegee board just told me, and I expect my crystal ball would have said the same thing but its all fogged-up now days.

From the chart in this article, it would appear that there is little austerity going on, in some cases not even a slowdown in government spending.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/05/08/Earth-to-Media-Its-Not-Austerity-When-Government-Spending-Keeps-Rising?utm_source=e_breitbart_com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Breitbart+News+Round+Up%2C+May+9%2C+2012&utm_campaign=Breitbart+News+Round+Up%2C+May+9%2C+2012&utm_term=More

[rakman]

One has to ask why the rise in neo-NAZI parties in many parts of the globe?

The Golden Dawn party in Greece got 7% of the vote. The German NAZI's killed 10% of the Greeks in WW-II.

Remember, the NAZI is National Socialist not "right-wing" as has been erroneously reported by the media.

How easily people forget.