Domestic Politics Mars Bilateral Ties With The US

[geriatrickid]

We really didn't do much for Pattaya. This was Pattaya when I was there as a soldier.

If you have more photos, you should post them somewhere as this one was interesting. (especially the naughty ones )

[swillowbee]

The article cites that "It is undisputed that the scheme made China feel uneasy" ... if Thailand surrendered to Chinese pressure from sharing in a US scientific meteorlogical research project that would materially benefit the nation, then I cannot resist asking ... so, Thailand? ... who's yo' daddy now?

[hellodolly]

There are some unanswered questions on this:

1) The planes planned to be used on this mission are converted spy planes. The media show pictures of a very large 4-engined plane but we are told that there is not enough room on board for a Thai observer. Why?

2) The Nasa chap in charge of the mission said that equipment had already been transported here. This was denied by our government in the wake of the outcry. Did somebody 'mis-speak' or was this just a plain old lie?

3) Who planted the rumor that the quid pro quo for permission to use U-Tapao was a US visa for Thaksin? Was it Yingluck, or was it someone from the Democrat camp seeking to make a cheap political gain?

4) Why do we only hear about the temporary weather mission in the media now? What happened to the permanent loss of sovereignty from the 'humanitarian' mission...this appears to have faded into the background? Is this an intentional fading so that we have a big hue and cry about the weather mission and then parliament then approves the permanent US base?

5) Why is U-Tapao so essential to the mission....planes are moveable things...why can't they take off from some other airport, and fly to the Asian cloud? Is it that the long runway is essential to getting the spy-planes into the air?

I'm not someone who usually makes predictions but here is one....this is a spying on China mission by the US military using NASA as a front...as such, the request will be resurrected by the US in the not too distant future, and it will become a permanent fixture on Thai soil.

Although US gets intelligence from satellites, drones and etc., why does US need Thailand air base to launch these old hunk if junk outdated "spy planes" to surreptitiously spy on China?

Cannot they accomplish same launching from US airbases in Japan, Phillipines or other locations if China is the target? I just do not understand the logistical or tactical advantage of this Thailand base over other current bases for purposes of spying on China or why we would use outdated very old technology from Thailand when we gave some super high tech stuff for millitary intelligence.

Well I agree with you there is no need of a base in Thailand for spying on China if that is what it is all about. They already have permission in other countries for the use of air ports. Not that sure if it really makes that big of a difference to NASA if they have to go to another country for meteorological reasons. But Thailand shot them selves in the foot by denying the use for a hub for disasters.

And it is all due to politicians who really don't care but think they can get some political advantage out of it. Is the Guillotine legal here in Thailand? if it was I am-sure this bunch of clowns would use it on them self's if they thought they could gain from it

[americaninbangkok]

personally I don't buy the weather study reason for using the airport. There is more than enough technology around to do that. It looked me as a foot in the door kind of thing.

The US military already has a small military property and permanent presence in bangkok called JUSTMAG.

"JUSMAGTHAI has primary responsibility, or otherwise directly supports, a variety of missions. These include a robust Joint Combined bilateral Exercise Program (averaging over 40 exercises a year), one of the largest International Military Education and Training programs in the world, Humanitarian Demining, and Counterdrug missions. Although JUSMAGTHAI coordinates with many U.S. Government organizations in the U.S. Embassy, JUSMAGTHAI is not physically located in the embassy and is not a part of the U.S. Defense Attache's Office. JUSMAGTHAI is located in a Royal Thai Supreme Command military compound of six 3-story buildings located approximately two kilometers from the U.S. Embassy."

Yep, sounds sinister!

[Nisa]

Wikileaks: Excerpts from USA Cable regarding Utapao

http://cablegatesear...d=05BANGKOK2280

Utapao represents the most strategically significant location in Thailand, and one of considerable importance regionally.

The aftermath of OUA and increased interest in further development of Utapao as a Cooperative Security Location (CSL) requires careful consideration of how to best advance our own interests while fully acknowledging legitimate partner nation sovereignty and commercialization issues.

Mid Term

: Develop the largely unused portion of Utapao east of the main runway for use as a U.S. lodgment point supporting small deployments of U.S. personnel and equipment, such as might be expected during an exercise.

Long Term

: Expand development of the east side, to include exploring the possibility of leasing existing warehouse structures in order to support larger contingency deployments of U.S. TDY personnel, and to formalize U.S. presence on a long-term basis

This option does not envision the construction of large, permanent structures that would advertise the U.S. presence.

Although the Royal Thai Government (RTG) is aware of the general U.S. interest in the CSL concept globally, it is important to note that there are no formal agreements with any level of the RTG regarding the establishment of CSLs in Thailand. The access that we currently enjoy is solely the result of our traditional alliance and military-to-military partnership that has been sustained over many years.

Edited July 1, 2012 by Nisa

[tzthib]

This seems to me to be a shift towards China, which is odd since the US is the MUCH larger trading partner. Why are the Thais choosing China at this time, and put almost 1/5 of their economy at risk? It seems like the ones running this show are morons also.

That used to be true but not anymore, China is the much larger trading partner now. Total trade with China last year was US$65 billion vs $35 billion with the US. Largest export destination for Thailand now is China, then Japan, then the US. Largest import is Japan, then China and the US is only in 4th place.

Checked the Ministry of Commerce site, and exports to China are higher. I apolize for the error. Exports to China are growing, yet imports are growing at a quicker pace.

However, Thailand has a 114 billion Bht. trade deficit for the first 5 months of 2012, and the trend is up. Overall trade balance heavily favors the US. It would seem to me that trade with China continues to be a losing proposition. After all, that is 114 billion baht that is subtracted from annual GDP. Since Asia is in the business of exports, it still seems the US should be the valued partner. After looking at the Japanese numbers, it looks as if the US is the only major trading partner with whom Thailand has a positive trade balance. Any damage to US trade would be even more devestating in terms of economic growth here in Thailand.

On a side note, I just looked at the Japan numbers. Thailand got destroyed over the past few years in terms of total trade balance.

[Nisa]

This seems to me to be a shift towards China, which is odd since the US is the MUCH larger trading partner. Why are the Thais choosing China at this time, and put almost 1/5 of their economy at risk? It seems like the ones running this show are morons also.

That used to be true but not anymore, China is the much larger trading partner now. Total trade with China last year was US$65 billion vs $35 billion with the US. Largest export destination for Thailand now is China, then Japan, then the US. Largest import is Japan, then China and the US is only in 4th place.

Checked the Ministry of Commerce site, and exports to China are higher. I apolize for the error. Exports to China are growing, yet imports are growing at a quicker pace.

However, Thailand has a 114 billion Bht. trade deficit for the first 5 months of 2012, and the trend is up. Overall trade balance heavily favors the US. It would seem to me that trade with China continues to be a losing proposition. After all, that is 114 billion baht that is subtracted from annual GDP. Since Asia is in the business of exports, it still seems the US should be the valued partner. After looking at the Japanese numbers, it looks as if the US is the only major trading partner with whom Thailand has a positive trade balance. Any damage to US trade would be even more devestating in terms of economic growth here in Thailand.

On a side note, I just looked at the Japan numbers. Thailand got destroyed over the past few years in terms of total trade balance.

Main export partners (2011 est.)

China 12%,

Japan 10.5%,

U.S. 9.6%,

Hong Kong 7.2%,

Malaysia 5.4%,

Singapore 5%,

Indonesia 4.4%

Main import partners (2011 est.)

Japan 18.5%,

China 13.4%,

UAE 6.3%,

U.S. 5.9%,

Malaysia 5.4%,

South Korea 4%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

[maidu]

Domestic politics, mars, bilateral ties with the US (I put the commas in) when I first read the title, I thought it had to do with Mars.

It should come as no surprise if Thailand's policy is weighted unevenly towards China. Nearly all large businesses in Thailand are owned/run by Chinese-Thais, including the Shinawatres. Thai politics is similarly inclined. I'm more concerned that Thai heavies might lean in favor of China's land grab in the South China Sea. Those tiny islands are six to ten times closer to the other claimants than they are to China.

[Mosha]

If true blood Thais were not so lazy, happens they would rule themselves

[ttelise]

This seems to me to be a shift towards China, which is odd since the US is the MUCH larger trading partner. Why are the Thais choosing China at this time, and put almost 1/5 of their economy at risk? It seems like the ones running this show are morons also.

That used to be true but not anymore, China is the much larger trading partner now. Total trade with China last year was US$65 billion vs $35 billion with the US. Largest export destination for Thailand now is China, then Japan, then the US. Largest import is Japan, then China and the US is only in 4th place.

Checked the Ministry of Commerce site, and exports to China are higher. I apolize for the error. Exports to China are growing, yet imports are growing at a quicker pace.

However, Thailand has a 114 billion Bht. trade deficit for the first 5 months of 2012, and the trend is up. Overall trade balance heavily favors the US. It would seem to me that trade with China continues to be a losing proposition. After all, that is 114 billion baht that is subtracted from annual GDP. Since Asia is in the business of exports, it still seems the US should be the valued partner. After looking at the Japanese numbers, it looks as if the US is the only major trading partner with whom Thailand has a positive trade balance. Any damage to US trade would be even more devestating in terms of economic growth here in Thailand.

On a side note, I just looked at the Japan numbers. Thailand got destroyed over the past few years in terms of total trade balance.

Main export partners (2011 est.)

China 12%,

Japan 10.5%,

U.S. 9.6%,

Hong Kong 7.2%,

Malaysia 5.4%,

Singapore 5%,

Indonesia 4.4%

Main import partners (2011 est.)

Japan 18.5%,

China 13.4%,

UAE 6.3%,

U.S. 5.9%,

Malaysia 5.4%,

South Korea 4%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

Haha, wiki for macro and micro economic info.

I believe Thailand in a catch 22 economically. With US pulling back on them, they will perhaps need to continue to look to China and India to increase imports and balance trade, but Thailand foreign advisors are appareny concerned about reliance on China.

Net effect, is Thai government leaders conceding that China will eventually own Thailand and Thailand will simply become a vassal of China.

Not an enviable position as China's economy will soon slow or implode in my opinion, wife's area of expertise more than mine. Nevertheless, China's GDP will slow drastically as China's economy has been kept artificially elevated by internal spending on huge Ghost cities that no one can afford to occupy. Rare a precious materials such as paladium are being found in other regions such as Mongolia, Russia, South and Central America. China's biggest flaw is it's monetary system which has to be shored up by huge investments in short term foreign debt. When construction slows in China (stop building empty cities) and if Euro destabilizes, China may need to invest even more of it's currency to keep appreciation of its currency in further check.

One could say China owns US also, but in reality, they just own a lot of our debt. We have their currency, like 3 trillion of it. Default for us has effect of raising our short term lending rates which is bad, but China losing 3.2 trillion of it currency could be even worse for them.

Thailand really doesn't have any bargaining power with China and may soon be at mercy of China economy, a position I would not want to be in especially when China owns a huge chunk of all of the bad CMO bonds that are about to imode again here in the US. These do not impact Treasury rates as they are private investments.

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/11816/anxiety-as-china-influences-thailand-s-economy.html

Edited July 2, 2012 by ttelise

[geriatrickid]

As an interesting side note, China is on the verge of running out of arable land. It also faces water shortages.

It is no secret .

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2010-08-27/markets/30051832_1_water-resources-farmland-china-daily

China expands when it needs land and resources. They will do it through purchase, or they will do it through indirect colonialism as is seen in Laos. Thailand looks like a nice spot to colonize. It won't neccesarily be in the mode of Tibet, but more like the African model now used.

The west for all of its sins is a much better trade partner in terms of maintaining of sovereignty.

BTW, exports to the USA are heaviily weighted to the products that provide employment and technology transfer.Chinese exports are not similar.

Edited July 2, 2012 by geriatrickid

[maidu]

Chinese-Thai families which own most of the large businesses in Thailand, won't mind if China gains clout in Thailand. It's almost inevitable. I agree, the African model will work well for China's planned take-over. China is spreading its tentacles in many directions, not least the South China Sea. Thailand is a soft target, as it doesn't discriminate against Chinese infiltration (easily gaining citizenship and business control) - as it discriminates against farang.

[kerryk]

Chinese-Thai families which own most of the large businesses in Thailand, won't mind if China gains clout in Thailand. It's almost inevitable. I agree, the African model will work well for China's planned take-over. China is spreading its tentacles in many directions, not least the South China Sea. Thailand is a soft target, as it doesn't discriminate against Chinese infiltration (easily gaining citizenship and business control) - as it discriminates against farang.

I don't know. Have you thought about Hong Kong?

[LomSak27]

Although US gets intelligence from satellites, drones and etc., why does US need Thailand air base to launch these old hunk if junk outdated "spy planes" to surreptitiously spy on China?

A problem arises if they are not spying but actually caring out research as said, why would you want to bother with the internecine political fighting of conspiracy prone parties in Thailand?

The US needs to cut back on both bilateral trade and research projects until Thailand gets its act together.

Edited July 3, 2012 by LomSak27

[kerryk]

Although US gets intelligence from satellites, drones and etc., why does US need Thailand air base to launch these old hunk if junk outdated "spy planes" to surreptitiously spy on China?

A problem arises if they are not spying but actually caring out research as said, why would you want to bother with the internecine political fighting of conspiracy prone parties in Thailand?

The US needs to cut back on both bilateral trade and research projects until Thailand gets its act together.

The spying is fine. It's been here for years. Ask any of the soldiers at U-Tapao. It is the research stuff that got hung up.

[Thai at Heart]

Chinese-Thai families which own most of the large businesses in Thailand, won't mind if China gains clout in Thailand. It's almost inevitable. I agree, the African model will work well for China's planned take-over. China is spreading its tentacles in many directions, not least the South China Sea. Thailand is a soft target, as it doesn't discriminate against Chinese infiltration (easily gaining citizenship and business control) - as it discriminates against farang.

The Thai Chinese families won't mind it if the Chinese government use their companies to advance their agenda. They won't appreciate it very much if the Chinese government does it themselves.

[Nisa]

Chinese-Thai families which own most of the large businesses in Thailand, won't mind if China gains clout in Thailand. It's almost inevitable. I agree, the African model will work well for China's planned take-over. China is spreading its tentacles in many directions, not least the South China Sea. Thailand is a soft target, as it doesn't discriminate against Chinese infiltration (easily gaining citizenship and business control) - as it discriminates against farang.

The overwhelming vast majority of Thai-Chinese have been here for many generations, don't speak Chinese and don't relate to being anything but a Thai. It would be like believing an American with German ancestry would somehow not care if Germany took over segments of the US ... well almost the same except that Thai-Chinese have been in Thailand a heck of a lot longer than Europeans families in the US.

Edited July 3, 2012 by Nisa

[maidu]

Chinese-Thai families which own most of the large businesses in Thailand, won't mind if China gains clout in Thailand. It's almost inevitable. I agree, the African model will work well for China's planned take-over. China is spreading its tentacles in many directions, not least the South China Sea. Thailand is a soft target, as it doesn't discriminate against Chinese infiltration (easily gaining citizenship and business control) - as it discriminates against farang.

The overwhelming vast majority of Thai-Chinese have been here for many generations, don't speak Chinese and don't relate to being anything but a Thai. It would be like believing an American with German ancestry would somehow not care if Germany took over segments of the US ... well almost the same except that Thai-Chinese have been in Thailand a heck of a lot longer than Europeans families in the US.

Perhaps that's true to some degree. Yet, in my Thai city, I see many, small medium and large businesses run by Chinese-Thai which seem to keep strong ties with China. It's no secret that keeping strong ties for a long time (with family and homeland) is a deep-set Chinese and Asian cultural tradition. Go in to a Chinese owned business in Thailand, and you'll probably hear Chinese spoken, and you'll see Chinese icons/lettering all over. I'm not saying that's wrong, as I favor multi-culturalism.

However, in the perspective of this thread, it may have a bearing. When discussing the ties between the US and Thailand, one cannot discount the big influence of China and Chinese-Thais.

[marinediscoking]

personally I don't buy the weather study reason for using the airport. There is more than enough technology around to do that. It looked me as a foot in the door kind of thing.

The US military already has a small military property and permanent presence in bangkok called JUSTMAG.

"JUSMAGTHAI has primary responsibility, or otherwise directly supports, a variety of missions. These include a robust Joint Combined bilateral Exercise Program (averaging over 40 exercises a year), one of the largest International Military Education and Training programs in the world, Humanitarian Demining, and Counterdrug missions. Although JUSMAGTHAI coordinates with many U.S. Government organizations in the U.S. Embassy, JUSMAGTHAI is not physically located in the embassy and is not a part of the U.S. Defense Attache's Office. JUSMAGTHAI is located in a Royal Thai Supreme Command military compound of six 3-story buildings located approximately two kilometers from the U.S. Embassy."

Yep, sounds sinister!

Not to nit-pick but I got into an argument with a thai who owns property in that area JUSTMAG is on, that it is on Royal Thai Supreme Command military compound property. He was adamant that is was not, even though the sigh on the door says it is.

[Thai at Heart]

This seems to me to be a shift towards China, which is odd since the US is the MUCH larger trading partner. Why are the Thais choosing China at this time, and put almost 1/5 of their economy at risk? It seems like the ones running this show are morons also.

That used to be true but not anymore, China is the much larger trading partner now. Total trade with China last year was US$65 billion vs $35 billion with the US. Largest export destination for Thailand now is China, then Japan, then the US. Largest import is Japan, then China and the US is only in 4th place.

Does invoicing through Hong Kong count as trade with China?

[metisdead]

An off topic post and replies have been removed as well as a troll post.