Friday The 13th Verdict Is Just A Sideshow: Thai Talk

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THAI TALK

Friday the 13th verdict is just a sideshow

Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Whatever verdict the Constitutional Court hands down tomorrow over the Constitution amendment crisis, things will get worse before they get better. And it doesn't really matter which side "wins" because the court's decision won't change anybody's opinion. Most people will continue to hold on to their positions in regard to the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the opposition Democrats.

My predictions won't change anything either, but I don't expect the verdict to shake up the country's political circles. And neither side will be able to claim full victory. But then, technically, the decision won't put any party in the loser's corner either.

The country, however, will end up as the real loser.

That's because, no matter who is judged right or wrong over this argument, over the interpretation of the proposed constitutional amendments, the long-standing conflict will not be resolved. If anything, the confrontation will get worse. Both sides will regroup and mobilise their own supporters for yet another showdown.

The two days of heated testimony by both sides in the presence of the Constitutional Court last week was just a sideshow. The main political battle continues with the reconciliation bill, and the third and final reading of the charter change issue waiting to explode when the next House session reconvenes in August.

The ruling Pheu Thai Party insists that the proposed amendment to Article 291 of the Constitution, to set up a new charter, is legal and appropriate. The opposition claims that this move goes against Article 68, which considers such a move an attempt to "overthrow the current system of democracy under a constitutional monarchy".

If the judges decide in favour of the opposition, the Pheu Thai Party could be disbanded. If the verdict gives the green light to the ruling party, the way is wide open for Pheu Thai's next move to ram through both the charter changes and reconciliation bill - a package seen by critics as benefiting only former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

The Constitutional Court could come down somewhere in the middle. The verdict could send the legislative branch back to the people in the form of a referendum to determine whether the majority thinks the current charter should be rewritten - and how. After all, certain constitutional experts have argued that this particular Constitution was approved by a majority of the people in an earlier referendum. Politicians, they say, should not change the basic elements of the highest law of the land without seeking the opinion of the "owners of the country", who have already put an official stamp of approval on this very important document.

Pheu Thai Party executives have toned down their public statements directed toward the constitutional court, saying they will respect whatever verdict is handed down. But the red shirts, the party's other arm, have made it clear that they will mobilise in the hundreds of thousands to protest on the streets if the court's decision goes against what they think is right.

At least four of the nine judges on the panel don't really want to have anything to do with the task at hand. One, Charan Pakdithanakul, sought and was granted the right to pull out. Three others asked for the same exit option but were turned down. The remaining eight judges have been put under great pressure. They stand accused of being biased no matter how the majority decides.

It gets worse if the judges are split 4-4 in their decision. That would plunge the country in a new constitutional crisis, since there are no legal provisions or precedents to overcome a stalemate.

If it's any consolation, this too shall pass. It is, after all, just a small sideshow. The real raging battle is only in respite. It will resume soon enough. Fasten your seatbelt.

-- The Nation 2012-07-12

[SuneeTH]

Friday the 13th.

Is that another movie premier?