GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[smedly]

I think it is safe to say there are two things going on here

The British economy has several challenges that are making the pound weak, we know this because the British government release figures and projections that most of us believe, we also have reasonable confidence that whatever the BOE and the British Government do will mostly be for the good of the country and not focused on individuals - but that's not the whole story

My Opinion only - Below

Thailand is a different animal

First of all the Governor of the BOT has made several statments recently, it would be wrong to think these statements actually came from him - he along with every other official in this country are told exactly what to say whether they agree with it or not - and the current government has already admitted that they tell lies to make things look good, so for me the current state of the banks and the economy in Thailand is an unknown, I can only read between the lines and come to my own conclusions

I also do not think that the Thai government acts for the good of the country - they are focused on their own pockets, so no confidence there. The Thai economy will be directed for the good of a few and not for the many.

Also there is not transparency which makes me believe rather than tell lies about the state of economy they just say nothing

Over the last 6 months or so I've had several posts on TV voicing my concern for government debt and individual debt, it seems now we are starting to see some ripples.

Should the baht be strong right now ? well simple answer no and I don't understand why it's being falsely inflated

Will a strong baht help Thailand ? well again no, Thailand is an exporter, the economy here relies on manufacturing Argriculture and tourism ( the latter I regard as export )

What is happening here is so bad that I almost think there is an interested party that wants to drive Thailand into the ground, I think the people are feeling it but just not quite getting it or seeing it - fancy statements from the government about the economy being strong - every thing is good - Hub this Hub that - when in reality it's falling apart

For me this ship is sinking but nobody will notice until they're up to their necks

Just my opinion of course - and I haven't read over my post so excuse the errors

Edited March 2, 2013 by smedly

[exeter]

After all, look through British history, we haven't always had Oil and Gas.

before Oil and Gas you had the <deleted>

No we had coal

[Naam]

After all, look through British history, we haven't always had Oil and Gas.

before Oil and Gas you had the <deleted>

No we had coal

yep! some of the <deleted> were quite dark.

[Naam]

Should the baht be strong right now ? well simple answer no and I don't understand why it's being falsely inflated.

adding "being" to "falsely inflated" proves that you don't understand market forces. no offence meant!

[smedly]

Should the baht be strong right now ? well simple answer no and I don't understand why it's being falsely inflated.

adding "being" to "falsely inflated" proves that you don't understand market forces. no offence meant!

the word "being" in that context covers every aspect of every lie - untrueth - official inaction - market manipulation - lack of transparency etc etc - not the entities that are taking advantage of the situation and keeping it there

I expect something big to happen soon as a key event just occured, the restriction on outgoing Thai baht has been lifted allowing those with money to buy up foreign currency on the cheap, I expect a reversal very soon

you really think there's no manipulation going on here ?

Dick Turpin wore a mask

[nong38]

I think it is safe to say there are two things going on here

The British economy has several challenges that are making the pound weak, we know this because the British government release figures and projections that most of us believe, we also have reasonable confidence that whatever the BOE and the British Government do will mostly be for the good of the country and not focused on individuals - but that's not the whole story

My Opinion only - Below

Thailand is a different animal

First of all the Governor of the BOT has made several statments recently, it would be wrong to think these statements actually came from him - he along with every other official in this country are told exactly what to say whether they agree with it or not - and the current government has already admitted that they tell lies to make things look good, so for me the current state of the banks and the economy in Thailand is an unknown, I can only read between the lines and come to my own conclusions

I also do not think that the Thai government acts for the good of the country - they are focused on their own pockets, so no confidence there. The Thai economy will be directed for the good of a few and not for the many.

Also there is not transparency which makes me believe rather than tell lies about the state of economy they just say nothing

Over the last 6 months or so I've had several posts on TV voicing my concern for government debt and individual debt, it seems now we are starting to see some ripples.

Should the baht be strong right now ? well simple answer no and I don't understand why it's being falsely inflated

Will a strong baht help Thailand ? well again no, Thailand is an exporter, the economy here relies on manufacturing Argriculture and tourism ( the latter I regard as export )

What is happening here is so bad that I almost think there is an interested party that wants to drive Thailand into the ground, I think the people are feeling it but just not quite getting it or seeing it - fancy statements from the government about the economy being strong - every thing is good - Hub this Hub that - when in reality it's falling apart

For me this ship is sinking but nobody will notice until they're up to their necks

Just my opinion of course - and I haven't read over my post so excuse the errors

I think a lot of what you say is right, not sure the ship is sinking, things seem to bump along and life goes on as if the world beyond Thailand did not exist, strange place this is, nothing seems to affect it. The western markets are in trouble yet Thai growth is going up to 6.5% amazing must have found some big new markets.

There are those who say that the british Empire was built on bluff, if I look big and powerful then I probably am and the Empire lasted almost 2 centuries, well maybe Thailand's economy is built on bluff as well, if they is all is going well it probably is and they will give us the appropriate figures to support their views and who will doubt them?

Meanwhile the exchange rate drops toward 44

[Thailand1977]

Doesn't look like GBP exchange rate has any cause to be upwardly mobile soon. Even the olympics had no noticeable effect.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

The Olympic effect i love that one, i was surprised that a few people running around a track and throwing balls and sticks didn't have the economy booming.

The best ones were yesterday ... the reason manufacturing fell was because we had a cold January, and best of all because of the Chinese New Year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9902000/UK-manufacturing-shrinks-unexpectedly-in-February-triggers-slide-in-the-pound.html

This just confirms the desperate need to sack people from the Ministry of Truth.

[yoshiwara]

I think it is safe to say there are two things going on here

The British economy has several challenges that are making the pound weak, we know this because the British government release figures and projections that most of us believe, we also have reasonable confidence that whatever the BOE and the British Government do will mostly be for the good of the country and not focused on individuals - but that's not the whole story

My Opinion only - Below

Thailand is a different animal

First of all the Governor of the BOT has made several statments recently, it would be wrong to think these statements actually came from him - he along with every other official in this country are told exactly what to say whether they agree with it or not - and the current government has already admitted that they tell lies to make things look good, so for me the current state of the banks and the economy in Thailand is an unknown, I can only read between the lines and come to my own conclusions

I also do not think that the Thai government acts for the good of the country - they are focused on their own pockets, so no confidence there. The Thai economy will be directed for the good of a few and not for the many.

Also there is not transparency which makes me believe rather than tell lies about the state of economy they just say nothing

Over the last 6 months or so I've had several posts on TV voicing my concern for government debt and individual debt, it seems now we are starting to see some ripples.

Should the baht be strong right now ? well simple answer no and I don't understand why it's being falsely inflated

Will a strong baht help Thailand ? well again no, Thailand is an exporter, the economy here relies on manufacturing Argriculture and tourism ( the latter I regard as export )

What is happening here is so bad that I almost think there is an interested party that wants to drive Thailand into the ground, I think the people are feeling it but just not quite getting it or seeing it - fancy statements from the government about the economy being strong - every thing is good - Hub this Hub that - when in reality it's falling apart

For me this ship is sinking but nobody will notice until they're up to their necks

Just my opinion of course - and I haven't read over my post so excuse the errors

I think a lot of what you say is right, not sure the ship is sinking, things seem to bump along and life goes on as if the world beyond Thailand did not exist, strange place this is, nothing seems to affect it. The western markets are in trouble yet Thai growth is going up to 6.5% amazing must have found some big new markets.

There are those who say that the british Empire was built on bluff, if I look big and powerful then I probably am and the Empire lasted almost 2 centuries, well maybe Thailand's economy is built on bluff as well, if they is all is going well it probably is and they will give us the appropriate figures to support their views and who will doubt them?

Meanwhile the exchange rate drops toward 44:whistling:

I think that in the end one's political analysis has to boil down to what one does with one's own position re the holding of Thai baht or Thai investment assets from this point on. The story so far has been to hold Thai assets and the Thai baht.

[Denizen]

Another in the series of this epistle. The British paid a high price for black Wednesday. The UK treasury lost GBP 3.3 billion supporting the GBP while George Soros made GBP 1 billion shorting it. This is market efficiency in action where an investor sees an anomaly and profits from the correction to the anomaly. Note below that the devaluation could have made the British taxpayer a profit GBP 2,4 billion instead of a loss of GBP 3.3 billion..

Black Wednesday

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

In politics and economics, Black Wednesday refers to the events of 16 September 1992 when the British Conservative government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep it above its agreed lower limit. George Soros, the most high profile of the currency market investors, made over GBP£1 billion^[1] profit by short selling sterling.

In 1997 the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion, with the actual cost being £3.3 billion which was revealed in 2005 under the Freedom of Information Act (FoI).^[2]

The trading losses in August and September were estimated at £800 million, but the main loss to taxpayers arose because the devaluation could have made them a profit. The papers show that if the government had maintained $24 billion foreign currency reserves and the pound had fallen by the same amount, the UK would have made a £2.4 billion profit on sterling's devaluation.^{[3][need quotation to verify]} Newspapers also revealed that the Treasury spent £27 billion of reserves in propping up the pound.

[thenervoussurgeon]

yada,yada,yada from the usuall Brit knockers who rub their hands with glee if they think we are down ,well many before you have thought it and look what happened to them .

[Denizen]

Doesn't look like GBP exchange rate has any cause to be upwardly mobile soon. Even the olympics had no noticeable effect.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

The Olympic effect i love that one, i was surprised that a few people running around a track and throwing balls and sticks didn't have the economy booming.

The best ones were yesterday ... the reason manufacturing fell was because we had a cold January, and best of all because of the Chinese New Year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9902000/UK-manufacturing-shrinks-unexpectedly-in-February-triggers-slide-in-the-pound.html

This just confirms the desperate need to sack people from the Ministry of Truth.

The only British Ministry still functioning effectively is the ministry of funny walks.

[Thailand1977]

I am astonished by the amount of uninformed opinion there is on the Thai Baht especially by British farangs. They appear to believe the Thai Baht is rising whereas it is actually the other currencies that are falling. Note the converse of their arguments where the Thai Baht is actually falling against the Australian dollar.

There is a lot of sour grapes and angst from British Farangs who are being adversely affected by the fall of the GBP not the rise of the THB.

The Thai government and the Thai finance ministry have long been acting to try to lower the Baht and several years ago they introduced a law for incoming currency that a portion had to be deposited with the finance ministry. The purpose of this was to discourage capital inflow. It worked too well and affected legitimate investment as well as speculation to the extent the Thai government had to rescind the law.

For British farangs:

1. Please source better financial information
2. Several currencies are falling against the Thai Baht.
3. The Thai government is acting against the upward pressure on the Thai Baht
4. The GBP is in a correction phase that may last years. The bottom has not been reached.
5. If you intended to live in Thailand you should have converted some or all of your GBP to THB. You would be laughing now instead of crying.

The Aussie dollar is hardly the benchmark for what the THB is doing, Australia is a pointless country at the other side of the planet that nobody cares about other then Aussies who like to bore everyone shytless with how great the place is.

I gave you references before with regards to oil and the British economy to disprove you and several other links, but you seemed to ignore them and continue your anti British rant.

Let me spell it out to you,if our people and government didn't borrow and spend more then they could ever pay back without the QE and 0.5% interest rates, Sterling wouldnt be in this mess it has nothing to do with declining oil,despite the fact oil revenue. (that is rising).

Edited March 2, 2013 by Thailand1977

[Huayrat]

I am astonished by the amount of uninformed opinion there is on the Thai Baht especially by British farangs. They appear to believe the Thai Baht is rising whereas it is actually the other currencies that are falling. Note the converse of their arguments where the Thai Baht is actually falling against the Australian dollar.

There is a lot of sour grapes and angst from British Farangs who are being adversely affected by the fall of the GBP not the rise of the THB.

The Thai government and the Thai finance ministry have long been acting to try to lower the Baht and several years ago they introduced a law for incoming currency that a portion had to be deposited with the finance ministry. The purpose of this was to discourage capital inflow. It worked too well and affected legitimate investment as well as speculation to the extent the Thai government had to rescind the law.

For British farangs:

1. Please source better financial information
2. Several currencies are falling against the Thai Baht.
3. The Thai government is acting against the upward pressure on the Thai Baht
4. The GBP is in a correction phase that may last years. The bottom has not been reached.
5. If you intended to live in Thailand you should have converted some or all of your GBP to THB. You would be laughing now instead of crying.

I think you have an obsession with British farangs as thats all you seem to talk about.. maybe something in your childhood caused this..

[thenervoussurgeon]

To all of you who go on about how wonderfull Thai finances are i suggest you google Thai debt bubble and see what the worlds financial institutions feel about what is happening here .

[Denizen]

I am astonished by the amount of uninformed opinion there is on the Thai Baht especially by British farangs. They appear to believe the Thai Baht is rising whereas it is actually the other currencies that are falling. Note the converse of their arguments where the Thai Baht is actually falling against the Australian dollar.

There is a lot of sour grapes and angst from British Farangs who are being adversely affected by the fall of the GBP not the rise of the THB.

The Thai government and the Thai finance ministry have long been acting to try to lower the Baht and several years ago they introduced a law for incoming currency that a portion had to be deposited with the finance ministry. The purpose of this was to discourage capital inflow. It worked too well and affected legitimate investment as well as speculation to the extent the Thai government had to rescind the law.

For British farangs:

1. Please source better financial information
2. Several currencies are falling against the Thai Baht.
3. The Thai government is acting against the upward pressure on the Thai Baht
4. The GBP is in a correction phase that may last years. The bottom has not been reached.
5. If you intended to live in Thailand you should have converted some or all of your GBP to THB. You would be laughing now instead of crying.

I think you have an obsession with British farangs as thats all you seem to talk about.. maybe something in your childhood caused this..

I have an obsession with correcting disinformation and I have good references having profited from the Baht and the Thai economy.

If British farangs had sourced credible financial information instead of bar blather they might now be laughing.

Edited March 2, 2013 by Denizen

[metisdead]

Off topic baiting posts have been removed. Stay on the topic and be civil.

Edit: This topic is about: Gbp To Thb Exchange Rate, it's not about comparisons with other currencies.

A post in which the quoted posts had been altered by altering the font size has been removed as per this forum rule:

30) Do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes, added emoticons, or altered wording.

Edited March 2, 2013 by metisdead

[exeter]

I seem to remember last summer/autumn that a similar thread was pointing to the GBP heading toward 47 but it all turned out alright in the end and went up to 49+ so I guess that there will always be commentary on the rate regardless of what ever the date/time, today though is not a good time and I am 3000bts a month worse off, so, no cartwheels down the aisles until things pick up then with the aid of a zimmer frame

[thenervoussurgeon]

Denizen

what makes you think that people like me havent? most of my friends as well have ample funds here ,but we do not make fun of those that have to live week by week . but we still care about the state of the baht to other currencies ,in the next few years judging by what the financial institutions say ,Thailand is heading down the same road as the west.

[MJP]

Denizen

what makes you think that people like me havent? most of my friends as well have ample funds here ,but we do not make fun of those that have to live week by week . but we still care about the state of the baht to other currencies ,in the next few years judging by what the financial institutions say ,Thailand is heading down the same road as the west.

I've heard this from expats friends who've lived in Thailand for 30 years. The bankers have now come to LOS and SE Asia after gouging the West and . . . same as it ever was . . . credit boom, bust and plunder.

The UK, however, had some nasty data in on Friday which suggests the BoE will do more QE, perhaps as soon as next week according to mainstream UK news media. This will drive GBP to the wall in my opinion.

I still think the outlook is very poor for any fiat currency that's backed by Government promises. The race to the bottom began a while ago.

Edited March 2, 2013 by MJP

[chiang mai]

Obama just provided authority to begin budget cuts and that will slow the US economy and eventually weaken USD, so GBP was first in the race to the bottom and now it's USD's turn, in the meantime I suspect the Thai government will do its part by taking on too much external debt and that will ultimately help the GBP ex-rate cause - just the way it looks to me at present.

[smedly]

I'd like to know what all the MP's will be doing with their millions over the next few weeks but as honest disclosure is none existent in Thailand there's not much chance of that - watch how it unfolds

I honestly believe TS is driving the Thai economy into melt down on purpose, there's no other explanation for the stupidity and lack of transparency from this administration, there have been a few brave soles that have tried to speak up but are very quickly silenced

The pigs haven't finished feeding yet

Edited March 2, 2013 by smedly

[Thailand1977]

Obama just provided authority to begin budget cuts and that will slow the US economy and eventually weaken USD, so GBP was first in the race to the bottom and now it's USD's turn, in the meantime I suspect the Thai government will do its part by taking on too much external debt and that will ultimately help the GBP ex-rate cause - just the way it looks to me at present.

America will be getting that deficit down to 1 trillion dollars then, and still this fool is complaining about spending cuts .... how anyone can be allowed to govern when spending so much more then they're earning is beyond me. And they print more then anyone apart from the Japanese.

Maybe the USD will be targeted when the money men have made enough going for sterling.

[Naam]

Should the baht be strong right now ? well simple answer no and I don't understand why it's being falsely inflated.

adding "being" to "falsely inflated" proves that you don't understand market forces. no offence meant!

the word "being" in that context covers every aspect of every lie - untrueth - official inaction - market manipulation - lack of transparency etc etc - not the entities that are taking advantage of the situation and keeping it there

I expect something big to happen soon as a key event just occured, the restriction on outgoing Thai baht has been lifted allowing those with money to buy up foreign currency on the cheap, I expect a reversal very soon

you really think there's no manipulation going on here ?

Dick Turpin wore a mask

yes Smedley, there is manipulation. the Bank of Thailand is trying hard since several years to keep the Baht from too much strengthening. they have been selling Baht and bought billions of Dollars. Thai Baht is a restricted currency. the restrictions on outgoing Baht (even on offshore Baht!) existed always. conspiracy theories in this respect are ridiculous.

[Naam]

To all of you who go on about how wonderfull Thai finances are i suggest you google Thai debt bubble and see what the worlds financial institutions feel about what is happening here .

to all those who always talk without presenting any facts:

United Kingdom

Public debt: 88.7% of GDP (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $94.54 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Budget deficit: -7.7% of GDP (2012 est.)

Current account balance: -$57.7 billion (2012 est.)

External debt: $9,836 billion

Thailand

Public debt: 47.8% of GDP (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $172.8 billion (31 December 2012 est.)

Budget deficit: -2.4% of GDP (2012 est.)

Current account balance: -$2.44 billion (2012 est.)

External debt: $115.6 billion

source: CIA factbook

[MJP]

To all of you who go on about how wonderfull Thai finances are i suggest you google Thai debt bubble and see what the worlds financial institutions feel about what is happening here .

to all those who always talk without presenting any facts:

United Kingdom

Public debt: 88.7% of GDP (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $94.54 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Budget deficit: -7.7% of GDP (2012 est.)

Current account balance: -$57.7 billion (2012 est.)

External debt: $9,836 billion

Thailand

Public debt: 47.8% of GDP (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $172.8 billion (31 December 2012 est.)

Budget deficit: -2.4% of GDP (2012 est.)

Current account balance: -$2.44 billion (2012 est.)

External debt: $115.6 billion

source: CIA factbook

Crackin'!!!

The disturbing thing is the big retail developments are still going ahead in the UK. I'm just finishing a 15 hectare out of town shopping development in East Anglia and about to break ground on an £800m retail development in London.

It's a very odd economy.

[NeverSure]

To all of you who go on about how wonderfull Thai finances are i suggest you google Thai debt bubble and see what the worlds financial institutions feel about what is happening here .

Oh, but people only have hindsight. The baht has been rising, therefore it will always rise. Thai real estate has been rising therefore it will always rise.

Thailands-credit-bubble.

"The bottom line is that when debt rises far more than income, then trouble lies ahead.

Thailand’s Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong gripes about the lack of investment which the Thai government proposes to bridge, from the same Bloomberg article,

Another legacy of the 1997 crisis is a lack of investment due to concerns over the country’s debt levels, which has led to persistent current-account surpluses, Kittiratt said. Thailand has had a current-account deficit only once since 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…

Over the long term, the government plans to invest in infrastructure to increase imports and reduce pressure on the currency, Kittiratt said. He has proposed spending 2 trillion baht ($67 billion) over seven and a half years on projects such as a railroad network to accelerate investments and put the current account into a deficit.

Given the steepening rate of debt build up, the question is where has all these money been flowing?

A property bubble perhaps?

From the Bangkok Post in October of 2012

The Bank of Thailand is keeping a close watch for any indication of a pending collapse in the housing bubble after prices of housing estate units recently sharply increased, Mathee Supapong, a senior director at BoT, said on Friday.

Housing loans provided by financial institutions were also substantially up and this was a case to concern, said Mr Mathee.

Officials say there has been no bubble. But no one can establish a bubble until after the fact (ex-post). The above only serves as clues to where the economic and social risks lies."

[meatboy]

there's hope for us brits that rely on a good ex.rate,acording to the commerce ministry of thailand inflation slows for the second month,as they are using 2011 as the base instead of 2007 figures,and this is what smedly talked about who do you believe when they say food prices FELL last month.please enlighten me as what food has fallen in price.

they are now using 450 consumer items to measure this up from 417.

they have added fresh food,cooked food,gas for vehicles and this one made me laugh security guard payments,i have told the mrs.expect a drop in the household expenditure.

[NeverSure]

To all of you who go on about how wonderfull Thai finances are i suggest you google Thai debt bubble and see what the worlds financial institutions feel about what is happening here .

to all those who always talk without presenting any facts:

United Kingdom

Public debt: 88.7% of GDP (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $94.54 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Budget deficit: -7.7% of GDP (2012 est.)

Current account balance: -$57.7 billion (2012 est.)

External debt: $9,836 billion

Thailand

Public debt: 47.8% of GDP (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold: $172.8 billion (31 December 2012 est.)

Budget deficit: -2.4% of GDP (2012 est.)

Current account balance: -$2.44 billion (2012 est.)

External debt: $115.6 billion

source: CIA factbook

What this doesn't address, and is of most concern to me, is private debt. Thais are in debt as never before. Banks have made real estate loans which depend on the value of real estate continuing to rise. There is massive speculation which could prove to be a house of cards.

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many "good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to 1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in 1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the backs of the banks in Thailand.

Also, somehow people have the idea that Thailand is growing so fast. I propose that it's debt based, and that it's unsustainable. I also propose that the new minimum wage will slow it way down. There are much lower bidders for labor, and in more industrious places.

As for Thailand's growth, I see a lot of people quoting the untransparent Thailand's claims. But according to the CIA World Factbook:

[chris2004]

It always surprises me the number of cars on Thailand's roads. With a new car costing what about 3 years salary for the average thai. It's like people in the UK all driving around in top of the range Mercs.

[Naam]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many
"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to
1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in
1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the
backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.