GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[Denizen]

Obama just provided authority to begin budget cuts and that will slow the US economy and eventually weaken USD, so GBP was first in the race to the bottom and now it's USD's turn, in the meantime I suspect the Thai government will do its part by taking on too much external debt and that will ultimately help the GBP ex-rate cause - just the way it looks to me at present.

UK GDP growth rate is still negative whereas USA's is positive. GBP is more likely to head South.

[Denizen]

It always surprises me the number of cars on Thailand's roads. With a new car costing what about 3 years salary for the average thai. It's like people in the UK all driving around in top of the range Mercs.

Top Mercedes price in UK is:

S 65 AMG L £165,085.00

UK median wage after tax is around GBP 22,000 which is about 8 years earnings. They would have to stop eating, live rough and go naked for eight years.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Denizen

[yoshiwara]

It always surprises me the number of cars on Thailand's roads. With a new car costing what about 3 years salary for the average thai. It's like people in the UK all driving around in top of the range Mercs.

Top Mercedes price in UK is:

S 65 AMG L £165,085.00

UK median wage after tax is around GBP 22,000 which is about 8 years earnings. They would have to stop eating, live rough and go naked for eight years.

2/3.

[thenervoussurgeon]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many

"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to

1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in

1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the

backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.

Taken From the Naam book of facts

[Naam]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many

"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to

1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in

1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the

backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.

Taken From the Naam book of facts

information from a couple of Thai-Chinese developers whom i know personally since many years. none of them is nervous, they keep on building, selling ~60% and renting out ~40%; both obviously without any problems.

[Naam]

It always surprises me the number of cars on Thailand's roads. With a new car costing what about 3 years salary for the average thai. It's like people in the UK all driving around in top of the range Mercs.

the average Thai who earns 8-12k Baht/month does not own a new car.

[Denizen]

It always surprises me the number of cars on Thailand's roads. With a new car costing what about 3 years salary for the average thai. It's like people in the UK all driving around in top of the range Mercs.

the average Thai who earns 8-12k Baht/month does not own a new car.

Thank God and Allah for that!

[fletchsmile]

I've heard this from expats friends who've lived in Thailand for 30 years. The bankers have now come to LOS and SE Asia after gouging the West and . . . same as it ever was . . . credit boom, bust and plunder.

The bankers were here far before your expats friends. HSBC and StanChart arrived late 19th century. Around 120 years ago. HSBC being the first.

Take it from one who's wandered middle earth before them

[Denizen]

I've heard this from expats friends who've lived in Thailand for 30 years. The bankers have now come to LOS and SE Asia after gouging the West and . . . same as it ever was . . . credit boom, bust and plunder.

The bankers were here far before your expats friends. HSBC and StanChart arrived late 19th century. Around 120 years ago. HSBC being the first.

Take it from one who's wandered middle earth before them

The recent arrivals are the investment advisers who want to relieve farangs of some of the burden of their wealth.

[smedly]

It always surprises me the number of cars on Thailand's roads. With a new car costing what about 3 years salary for the average thai. It's like people in the UK all driving around in top of the range Mercs.

the average Thai who earns 8-12k Baht/month does not own a new car.

Thank God and Allah for that!

That may have been true until the first car scheme started and the "free" 100kbaht after a year and the loans covered by the government if default were to occur - like the Rice scheme it is doomed to failure it's just taking longer to happen

[fletchsmile]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many "good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to 1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in 1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the backs of the banks in Thailand.

That many people, including posters on TV, have no idea of the numbers is probably true.

That commercial banks "simply aren't required to write them off" is false. Thai accounting standards, International Accounting standards, and the BOT require loans to be either written off or provided against to the extent not recoverable. To understand where the debt from 1997 in the system, is I'd suggest reading about the role of the FIDF, and brushing up on Thai and international accounting standards as well as BOT regulations.

Commercial Thai bank balance sheets are in pretty healthy shape, compared to where they were back in 1997 as well as compared to many Western Banks.

Edited March 3, 2013 by fletchsmile

[Denizen]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many "good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to 1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in 1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the backs of the banks in Thailand.

That many people, including posters on TV, have no idea of the numbers is probably true.

That commercial banks simply aren't required to write them off is false. Thai accounting standards, International Accounting standards, and the BOT require loans to be either written off or provided against to the extent not recoverable. To understand where the debt from 1997 in the system, is I'd suggest reading about how the role of the FIDF, and brushing up on Thai and international accounting standards as well as BOT regulations.

Commercial Thai bank balance sheets are in pretty healthy shape, compared to where they were back in 1997 as well as Western Banks.

Very true. If Thai banks were in bad shape they would have suffered during the economic meltdown of 2008-9 like a number of UK and USA banks did.

[chiang mai]

An article supporting the notion that the falls may have been overdone (yes I know, the DM again):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2287005/The-great-euro-stampede-Do-really-need-rush-Britons-flocking-buy-currency-fears-plunging-pound-prove-wrong.html

but should probably be read in the context of this article re. QE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9904916/Quantitative-easing-MPC-to-reject-calls-for-more-money-printing.html

The combination of the two seems to support no further falls, for now!

Edited March 3, 2013 by chiang mai

[fletchsmile]

An article supporting the notion that the falls may have been overdone (yes I know, the DM again):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2287005/The-great-euro-stampede-Do-really-need-rush-Britons-flocking-buy-currency-fears-plunging-pound-prove-wrong.html

but should probably be read in the context of this article re. QE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9904916/Quantitative-easing-MPC-to-reject-calls-for-more-money-printing.html

The combination of the two seems to support no further falls, for now!

Short term:

I'd agree there's a reasonable chance the falls may be overdone, as the speed of decline was faster than expected. From here it could go either way, in contrast to the start of the thread where downwards looked more likely. I see a range of about 43.2 to 46.2

The DM article is written more from a western currencies perspective, so need to be careful when interpreting it for Thailand. That said, given GBP/THB is effectively GBPUSD x USDTHB and USDTHB seems to have stabilised for now (no guarantee that will continue and is an extra risk factor), it's not without use

Longer term:

I think the following quote is most open to mis-interpretaion if using this article in a Thai GBPTHB perspective

But Cook believes that despite these fears, sterling is under- valued. ‘Over the long term, currencies return to a parity with one another reflecting their purchasing power.

While UK, US and Europe may be in similar boats to a large extent, with similar problems and similar long term growth rates, they may indeed return to purchasing power parity. On the other hand in a Thai context , Thailand's purchasing power is continually increasing vs the west. Thailand's growth rate is superior, and policy changes like increases in the minimum wage mean we're not talking of a return to an original point that was "correct" a couple of months or even couple of years back. Thailand's PPP will continue to improve. So longer term THB will continue its trend of strengthening vs GBP

Edited March 3, 2013 by fletchsmile

[thenervoussurgeon]

Thailand is corrupt and never transparent. We have no idea how many

"good loans" the banks have as collateral going all the way back to

1997. They simply aren't required to write them off. Condos built in

1997 sit empty while empty new ones go up all around. This is all on the

backs of the banks in Thailand.

you are not informed "neversure". the lion share of construction is not financed

by banks but was always paid for by "black" money. it's the ideal way to launder

Baht which escaped the Thai taxman.

Taken From the Naam book of facts

information from a couple of Thai-Chinese developers whom i know personally since many years. none of them is nervous, they keep on building, selling ~60% and renting out ~40%; both obviously without any problems.

Sorry i Apologise

Taken from the Naam book of two developer friends he knows.

[smedly]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

[chiang mai]

An article supporting the notion that the falls may have been overdone (yes I know, the DM again):

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2287005/The-great-euro-stampede-Do-really-need-rush-Britons-flocking-buy-currency-fears-plunging-pound-prove-wrong.html

but should probably be read in the context of this article re. QE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9904916/Quantitative-easing-MPC-to-reject-calls-for-more-money-printing.html

The combination of the two seems to support no further falls, for now!

Short term:

I'd agree there's a reasonable chance the falls may be overdone, as the speed of decline was faster than expected. From here it could go either way, in contrast to the start of the thread where downwards looked more likely. I see a range of about 43.2 to 46.2

The DM article is written more from a western currencies perspective, so need to be careful when interpreting it for Thailand. That said, given GBP/THB is effectively GBPUSD x USDTHB and USDTHB seems to have stabilised for now (no guarantee that will continue and is an extra risk factor), it's not without use

Longer term:

I think the following quote is most open to mis-interpretaion if using this article in a Thai GBPTHB perspective

>But Cook believes that despite these fears, sterling is under- valued. ‘Over the long term, currencies return to a parity with one another reflecting their purchasing power.

While UK, US and Europe may be in similar boats to a large extent, with similar problems and similar long term growth rates, they may indeed return to purchasing power parity. On the other hand in a Thai context , Thailand's purchasing power is continually increasing vs the west. Thailand's growth rate is superior, and policy changes like increases in the minimum wage mean we're not talking of a return to an original point that was "correct" a couple of months or even couple of years back. Thailand's PPP will continue to improve. So longer term THB will continue its trend of strengthening vs GBP

Yes, I mostly agree with what you've written. The wild card for me however is the continued strength of the Thai economy in terms of how the country is managed, whilst the Thai economy is on a winning streak at present, fiscal management here is not mature and there's plenty of scope for derailment. And we're already starting to see the take on of external debt and a country that it emulating the West of fifteen/twenty years, that all makes me very nervous.

[exeter]

Does anyone have the address of the Thai "Ministry of Truth"?

[Denizen]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

[Denizen]

Does anyone have the address of the Thai "Ministry of Truth"?

Yes the address is lodged with the British Ministry of Funny Walks.

[Thailand1977]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

[draftvader]

A man down the pub told me....

(sorry, had to be the first....this thread is just going that way now)

Out of curiosity where are you from Denizen?

[Denizen]

A man down the pub told me....

(sorry, had to be the first....this thread is just going that way now)

Out of curiosity where are you from Denizen?

Long ago was from Australia but also have other nationality.

[Denizen]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

Are you joyfully long on GBP?

[draftvader]

A man down the pub told me....

(sorry, had to be the first....this thread is just going that way now)

Out of curiosity where are you from Denizen?

Long ago was from Australia but also have other nationality.

Thank you for answering that question. Why does the THB/GBP rate bother you so much? AUD is looking nice.

[Denizen]

A man down the pub told me....

(sorry, had to be the first....this thread is just going that way now)

Out of curiosity where are you from Denizen?

Long ago was from Australia but also have other nationality.

Thank you for answering that question. Why does the THB/GBP rate bother you so much? AUD is looking nice.

I am long on Thai Baht. Thai Baht strength against any currency interests me.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Denizen

[Thailand1977]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

Are you joyfully long on GBP?

Answer the question, come on you claim to be a financial genius yet you write the most retarded comment i have ever seen on Thai visa.

Being as i live in England i am as long as you want.

[mccw]

An exceeding long man ^

[smedly]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

I've got to ask the question and you can all rate it as a 1-10 scale 10 being the most risk

how many here feel that holding baht is what you would do with your life savings right now

the answer pretty much closes this thread if replies are honest

mine is 11 - which means - are you kidding

[Chivas]

I'm long on the thai baht - what exactly does that mean

Means he has "bought" the Baht to rise against a cross currency...........