GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

I agree Claudius and, although exports may gain a bit, I think ultimately it will be bad for the economy since most activity is consumer spending lead. When wages aren't close to keeping up with inflation of essentials then obviously there is less left over for discretionary purchases. So rather than a weak pound boosting the economy it will likely drag it down.

[chiang mai]

Just two words, thirty five (plus or minus 10%)

[AnotherOneAmerican]

Just two words, thirty five (plus or minus 10%)

Date please.

[chiang mai]

Just two words, thirty five (plus or minus 10%)

Date please.

In your dreams, you're not my type.

[mccw]

Exchange rates come in pairs.

If the UK is down the toilet it's currency will fall against a country which is not having problems.

Anyone who attempts to diss a currency without comparing it to the proposed alternative currency is not really knowledgeable.

Now tell us in what way you think Thailand is doing better or facing less problems than the UK?

Thailand currently has much better gdp growth and less government debt; also its banks have higher capital ratios and haven't needed bailing out so the government is not so exposed to potential further down turns. They could opt to fold and write off debts of a failing bank rather than take on a black whole of unknown proportions. Not saying that's the way to go or will go but its leave options where UK is unfortunately now committed to the too big to fail as stock holders/ part owners.

Thailand has also demonstrated willingness to defend a short falling bht but done precious little to stop the rises of the past 5+ years. Could be they know that a rampant inflation or big jump in essentials for average worker would cause political / social problems; so they are choosing price stability and stronger currency while attempting to legislate to bring up wages to keep up with the unavoidable inflation brought of by macro supply side issues ie oil and gas imports, fertiliser and feed etc.

[mccw]

In other news I see the guardian newspapers latest poll has Tories up 7% to be neck and neck with Labour on 36% of the popular vote if elections were called tomorrow. Its a way off yet but worth thinking about the currency implications I think. Labour although they talk of fiscal responsibility I think its in thier nature to want to spend. It wouldn't take long to let carney off the inflation target leash and print n spend, print n spend and print n spend some more. If they win the next election I can see the pound being half the value what it is to day and the lower to middle classes in ruins; as such probably a collapse in the property market to boot due to lack of buyers and the in affordability of mortgages / debts even with low rates due to the rise of other essentials eating up too much of income to afford the debt payments on top.

If Tories win then the slide might not be so bad but the tradjectory is still a weaker pound. I expect a slip to low 40s on the next wave of QE and the after a conservative win and further QE a new range of around 35-40.

[chiang mai]

It will take a global solution on debt to resolve the UK economic problems, I have in mind debt forgiveness although I can't begin to imagine how that might work. In the meantime the inflation beast is going to run rampant and nobody seems to care, 2% or 3%, BOE letter or not each month, it doesn't really mean anything anymore, a bit like telling an unruly eleven year old that he'll get detention if he sets fire to the school again. But I'm doubtful about more QE, I don't think they'll go there because it runs the risk of early interest rate rises and wage inflation at some point.

[mccw]

Update for anyone who was interested in the co-op bank saga:

""""Depositors with the Co-Operative's struggling banking arm have withdrawn hundreds of millions of pounds since the scale of its problems began to emerge in the spring, Sky News understands.

Corporate and retail customers of the Co-Op Bank have contributed to net withdrawals totalling more than £500m - out of an overall deposit base of almost £37bn at the end of 2012 - in recent months.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, a spokesman for the Co-Op's banking arm said: "Customer deposit retention levels remain within expected parameters and we continue to recruit new retail depositors, reflecting the underlying loyalty to our brand.

"The bank remains focused on delivering its capital plan."

News of the withdrawals - which amount to roughly 2% of the lender's deposit base, a smaller number than had been anticipated by banking experts - come as the Co-Op Group prepares a restructuring that will result in bondholders being forced to swallow significant losses on their investments.

Sources close to the Co-Op Bank and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), the arm of the Bank of England which monitors risks in the financial system, said they were "comfortable" with the deposits profile of the business.

Co-Op depositors' savings are protected - as they are at all UK-regulated banks - up to an £85,000 limit by a Government guarantee.

A substantial proportion of the withdrawals at the Co-Op Bank are understood to have been made by so-called matrix funds, which are obliged under their terms of operation to pull their deposits from lenders which have their credit ratings downgraded to junk status.

Some local authorities are also understood to be among the depositors which have diverted their money elsewhere.

The Co-Op Bank's rating was downgraded five notches in May following its withdrawal from a deal to acquire 632 branches from Lloyds Banking Group.

A heavyweight new management team, led by former HSBC executive Niall Booker, was parachuted into the Co-Op's banking arm, and was tasked with devising a restructuring plan aimed at filling a £1.5bn capital hole identified by the PRA.

That plan involves the Co-Op Group injecting £1bn of new capital, while bondholders will swap their existing debt for new debt and a chunk of shares in a new company that will be listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Bondholders angered by the proposed terms have vowed to fight for a better deal, but would be likely to see their investments wiped out if they voted to block it in the autumn. Under that scenario, the PRA would probably take control of the Co-Op Bank under a new resolution programme.

The Times reported on Tuesday that hundreds of jobs were likely to be axed at the Co-Op Bank as part of the restructuring, with Mr Booker expected to focus on retail lending under a revised strategy.

The plans will be outlined in the prospectus for the bank's stock market listing later this year.

""""

-from sky news

This is telling the detail with out the correct headlines. Not wanting to start a panick no doubt.

In the detail it says "bondholders will swap their existing debt for new debt and a chunk of shares in a new company that will be listed on the London Stock Exchange." The Co-Op is not allowed this ownership structure by its very nature. So it seems this will be a complete closing of the Co-Op bank as it is now and then a new bank opened, on completely different terms, under the brand Co-Op. The old Co-Op will have basically defaulted and closed.

At least they made the bond holders eat the loss rather than use the tax payers to make sure everybody got paid again.

[mccw]

Another bit of a case where the devils in the detail; end of a long boring story about nation wides new compliance officer coming from the FCA (financial conduct authority (taken over from FSA)), but it goes on to quote:

"Nationwide has previously indicated its intention to issue Core Capital Deferred Shares (CCDS)," it said in a statement last week.

"This new capital instrument is designed for mutual building societies and will enable Nationwide to raise common equity tier one capital to supplement retained earnings and to diversify its capital base.

"It remains the Society’s intention to establish and access this form of capital during the current or next financial year. Any such capital issuance remains at the discretion of the Nationwide Board and will have the effect of enhancing the ratios and timetable set out above."

Nationwide stressed its commitment to remaining a mutually-owned building society and serving its 15 million members "including [through] ongoing support of the housing market through the provision of mortgages and at the same time diversifying and strengthening its capital base".

Creaking of a larger problem in the system? One mutual defaulting closing down and re-opening and then this from another - except this one is one of the biggest mortgage lenders in the country; choosing some slippery "deferred shares mechanism" when it is a mutual surely shares are not allowed to be issued, and even if deferring then surely that means they are creating at a later date no? So a reformation like the co-op? Or is it a bond by another name? Share implies its not though; maybe a share that can not be traded? Hmm all sounds a bit dodgey to me

[mccw]

The above extract was from sky news app btw

[yoshiwara]

Exchange rates come in pairs.

If the UK is down the toilet it's currency will fall against a country which is not having problems.

Anyone who attempts to diss a currency without comparing it to the proposed alternative currency is not really knowledgeable.

Now tell us in what way you think Thailand is doing better or facing less problems than the UK?

Thailand facing 5% loss in GDP due to rice scams.

Thailand trying to procure huge loans to be wasted on more scams.

Several Thai banks insolvent (including the government bank).

Manufacturing shut down due to last years flooding, this years flooding imminent.

Consumer debt out of control.

Huge housing bubble.

Government led by a puppet controlled by a criminal.

Civil war looming.

Military coups every 5 years.

Now try to convince everyone to transfer all their assets to Thailand before the UK currency fails?

Yes I agree. Exchange rates come in pairs and I am not sure I want to hold either in substantial amounts. Both look vulnerable. So this year 'worthless' dollars has been an alternative.

[chiang mai]

The BOE MPC minutes for the July meeting, 7-0 against further QE.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2013/mpc1307.pdf

[mccw]

Extract from sky news

""Unemployment is 72,000 lower than a year ago, with a jobless rate of 7.8%.

Youth unemployment fell by 20,000 to 959,000, giving a jobless rate for 16 to 24-year-olds of 20.9%.""

[diggledunc]

The BOE MPC minutes for the July meeting, 7-0 against further QE.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2013/mpc1307.pdf

Oops sorry but perhaps they played Fergie time. It was actually 9-0 according to the BBC. One bit of good news for us I think even if next month could be different.

[yoshiwara]

It will take a global solution on debt to resolve the UK economic problems, I have in mind debt forgiveness although I can't begin to imagine how that might work. In the meantime the inflation beast is going to run rampant and nobody seems to care, 2% or 3%, BOE letter or not each month, it doesn't really mean anything anymore, a bit like telling an unruly eleven year old that he'll get detention if he sets fire to the school again. But I'm doubtful about more QE, I don't think they'll go there because it runs the risk of early interest rate rises and wage inflation at some point.

The issue is to consider what positions you can or will take with your assets and how you might split them between sterling or baht-based holdings. It is at that point that one's speculations about the future take on a real and concrete perspective.

[NeverSure]

Exchange rates come in pairs.

If the UK is down the toilet it's currency will fall against a country which is not having problems.

Anyone who attempts to diss a currency without comparing it to the proposed alternative currency is not really knowledgeable.

Now tell us in what way you think Thailand is doing better or facing less problems than the UK?

Thailand facing 5% loss in GDP due to rice scams.

Thailand trying to procure huge loans to be wasted on more scams.

Several Thai banks insolvent (including the government bank).

Manufacturing shut down due to last years flooding, this years flooding imminent.

Consumer debt out of control.

Huge housing bubble.

Government led by a puppet controlled by a criminal.

Civil war looming.

Military coups every 5 years.

Now try to convince everyone to transfer all their assets to Thailand before the UK currency fails?

Yes I agree. Exchange rates come in pairs and I am not sure I want to hold either in substantial amounts. Both look vulnerable. So this year 'worthless' dollars has been an alternative.

5 Reasons Not to Bet Against America's $15.7 Trillion Economy

Link

"Unlike crisis-ravaged Europe and credit-addicted China, the U.S. has at least five key characteristics that support its $15.7 trillion economy: record profits, leading innovation, resurgent energy production, stabilizing housing and banking markets and relatively favorable demographics."

- more -

[chiang mai]

It will take a global solution on debt to resolve the UK economic problems, I have in mind debt forgiveness although I can't begin to imagine how that might work. In the meantime the inflation beast is going to run rampant and nobody seems to care, 2% or 3%, BOE letter or not each month, it doesn't really mean anything anymore, a bit like telling an unruly eleven year old that he'll get detention if he sets fire to the school again. But I'm doubtful about more QE, I don't think they'll go there because it runs the risk of early interest rate rises and wage inflation at some point.

The issue is to consider what positions you can or will take with your assets and how you might split them between sterling or baht-based holdings. It is at that point that one's speculations about the future take on a real and concrete perspective.

I remain 50/50, GBP/THB. that was concrete enough when I took that decision and it remains so today.

[yoshiwara]

It will take a global solution on debt to resolve the UK economic problems, I have in mind debt forgiveness although I can't begin to imagine how that might work. In the meantime the inflation beast is going to run rampant and nobody seems to care, 2% or 3%, BOE letter or not each month, it doesn't really mean anything anymore, a bit like telling an unruly eleven year old that he'll get detention if he sets fire to the school again. But I'm doubtful about more QE, I don't think they'll go there because it runs the risk of early interest rate rises and wage inflation at some point.

The issue is to consider what positions you can or will take with your assets and how you might split them between sterling or baht-based holdings. It is at that point that one's speculations about the future take on a real and concrete perspective.

I remain 50/50, GBP/THB. that was concrete enough when I took that decision and it remains so today.

So my question is, if you have an increasingly negative outlook for the pound, why do you continue to hold 50% in sterling?

[chiang mai]

It will take a global solution on debt to resolve the UK economic problems, I have in mind debt forgiveness although I can't begin to imagine how that might work. In the meantime the inflation beast is going to run rampant and nobody seems to care, 2% or 3%, BOE letter or not each month, it doesn't really mean anything anymore, a bit like telling an unruly eleven year old that he'll get detention if he sets fire to the school again. But I'm doubtful about more QE, I don't think they'll go there because it runs the risk of early interest rate rises and wage inflation at some point.

The issue is to consider what positions you can or will take with your assets and how you might split them between sterling or baht-based holdings. It is at that point that one's speculations about the future take on a real and concrete perspective.

I remain 50/50, GBP/THB. that was concrete enough when I took that decision and it remains so today.

So my question is, if you have an increasingly negative outlook for the pound, why do you continue to hold 50% in sterling?

Because the 50% of my holdings that is in THB will cover all my financial needs for at least the next ten years hence my GBP holdings are surplus funds for investment or simply just to hold. Within those ten years I expect GBP to strengthen and interest rates to increase thus the value of my GBP holdings will increase long before they are actually needed. Leaving my cash assets split between the two currencies is a preferable scenario to converting them into THB or indeed into any other currency since I am only ever likely to need either THB or GBP from this point on.

[yoshiwara]

Because the 50% of my holdings that is in THB will cover all my financial needs for at least the next ten years hence my GBP holdings are surplus funds for investment or simply just to hold. Within those ten years I expect GBP to strengthen and interest rates to increase thus the value of my GBP holdings will increase long before they are actually needed. Leaving my cash assets split between the two currencies is a preferable scenario to converting them into THB or indeed into any other currency since I am only ever likely to need either THB or GBP from this point on.

You appear to both have said that the UK economy has a poor outlook and that sterling will strengthen against the baht presumably. So that would assume that you would be holding a higher percentage than 50% in GBP in anticipation of that strengthening. Also even if you intend to only be bouncing backwards and forwards between UK and Thailand, an equally negative outlook on both countries and their currencies does not automatically imply a spilt in currency between the two. A high inflation rate in both countries for example still catches you and so a third currency might be an option. Of course dependent on how much money is in play but an issue nonetheless.

[mccw]

A third currency like gold

[yoshiwara]

A third currency like gold

which unfortunately lost ~25% this last 12 months so not such a good idea...................

[mccw]

What currency would you recommend then?

If your talking against bht then dollar and pound both lost more than 30% since peak.

What risks are we hedging against? Bht and pound crashes? Brought on by what? And then what is not subject to those same risks?

[mccw]

""""The Business Secretary has stoked up tension with the Bank of England by comparing its policymakers to the Taliban over restrictions imposed on banks.

Vince Cable believes that the BoE's demands that banks must boost the levels of capital they hold to protect against future financial shocks is deterring small business lending and holding back recovery.

Mr Cable told the Financial Times: "One of the anxieties in the business community is that the so-called 'capital Taliban' in the Bank of England are imposing restrictions which at this delicate stage of recovery actually make it more difficult for companies to operate and expand."

Mr Cable has expressed similar views before, but the strong language of his latest intervention comes less than a month into the tenure of new Bank governor Mark Carney.

It remains to be seen whether his remarks will persuade policymakers to soften their stance or simply harden their resolve.

Chancellor George Osborne was reported to share Mr Cable's views.

One Treasury official told the FT that it was hoped that Mr Carney would rein in the "jihadist" tendency in Threadneedle Street against the banks.

The BoE's new Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has ordered Britain's five biggest lenders to raise £13.4bn to plug a £27.1bn gap in their finances.

Nationwide, Britain's biggest building society, was reportedly left with a £1bn hole, with its chief executive Graham Beale describing the BoE's leverage ratio measurement as "crude".

Two weeks ago it announced that it had been able to meet the PRA's demand for it to strengthen its leverage ratio - a key measure of financial strength - to 3% from 2%, without raising extra funds from investors.""""

- sky news app.

Vincent cable sounds like he's off his rocker.

And the BoE's maths sounds like it needs a bit of brushing up n all: £13billion odd new capital to fill a £27billion hole? Hmmmmm

Raising the shakey 2% up to a whopping rock solid 3%! Problem solved; great, we can all relax; haha. Compared to Thailand banks claimed 8 or was it 16% capital ratios now? Sounds like a picture of health and stability.

[chiang mai]

What currency would you recommend then?

If your talking against bht then dollar and pound both lost more than 30% since peak.

What risks are we hedging against? Bht and pound crashes? Brought on by what? And then what is not subject to those same risks?

For Yosh:

bump.

[yoshiwara]

What currency would you recommend then?

If your talking against bht then dollar and pound both lost more than 30% since peak.

What risks are we hedging against? Bht and pound crashes? Brought on by what? And then what is not subject to those same risks?

For Yosh:

bump.

USD (I have switched over the last year to HKD rather than GBP to change to baht) and expect to continue doing so the next year.

Problem with holding cash in either though is little or no income and conversion rates so need to choose one's moment.

[chiang mai]

What currency would you recommend then?

If your talking against bht then dollar and pound both lost more than 30% since peak.

What risks are we hedging against? Bht and pound crashes? Brought on by what? And then what is not subject to those same risks?

For Yosh:

bump.

USD (I have switched over the last year to HKD rather than GBP to change to baht) and expect to continue doing so the next year.

Problem with holding cash in either though is little or no income and conversion rates so need to choose one's moment.

Thanks, I suspected that might be your answer and I agree that it's all in the timing.

[mccw]

"""The Bank of England has ordered Britain's major lenders to make new disclosures about their financial health in the coming weeks, stoking criticisms by Vince Cable of the central bank's 'Taliban' instincts.

Sky News understands that the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), the new wing of the BoE responsible for maintaining the stability of the banking system, has written to the major UK banks in recent days demanding that they reveal previously-undisclosed details of their capital and leverage positions in their forthcoming half-year results.

The demand has prompted concern from some lenders which are worried about the impact of such comprehensive public information disclosure at a time when the banking system continues to demonstrate signs of fragility.""""

- Sky News

So the banks don't want to show what a state they are in; that in itself is more worrying than if they just released some dressed up figure slightly under expectations. If they're scared to even have a crack at a Story for fear of repercussions then the truth must be truly dire

[Bluemoon66]

So the banks don't want to show what a state they are in; that in itself is more worrying than if they just released some dressed up figure slightly under expectations.

You mean like the BOT?

[chiang mai]

So the banks don't want to show what a state they are in; that in itself is more worrying than if they just released some dressed up figure slightly under expectations.

You mean like the BOT?

Not exactly, here read this, there'll be a test later:

http://www.bot.or.th/English/AboutBOT/FinancialReports/Weekly/Pages/Weekly2013.aspx