GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[NeverToReturn]

The poster has a valid point, the UK spin machine has been running at full tilt for several months in an attempt to change hearts and minds, because of that it's become difficult to know what to believe in the press. On the UK property market for example, there's around five positive spin articles each week yet when the Land Registry report is published at the end of each month it bears no relationship to the published stories (yes I know the LR report is behind by two months). So I think there is agreat deal of sceptism out there about press releases, headlines often bear no relationship to the details and even the smallest win is often made out to be a major victory yet the UK fundamentals seem not to have changed for the better, hmm he says to himself!.

You don't even live in the UK so how would you know.. If you actually lived there then you would see an upturn.. Stop looking at figures it means nothing.. Why is the pound so strong then if nothing is happening back in blighty.. It's up 15% in the last 3/4 months

Just look at the rising figures of public and private debt, and then compare them to pretty much any nation in the world (inc. Greece), i like the phrase coined last week that its an "Alice in Wongaland" economy, i.e. one growing purely on borrowing and spending, then the government and its mouthpieces in the MSM telling us all how wonderful things are. I feel like im living in Orwell's 1984 with the "Ministry of Truth" printing any lies they want and us proles lapping it up.

The only reason the deficit fell last year is because the government took the interest of 35 million from QE, yet we are told the deficit is down by 40% and most people in Britain believe this to mean that the debt is down when anyone who takes a minute to figure things out knows otherwise.

Everyday in the press they are telling us all how the housing market is rising and in full flow, yet on the other hand Gideon offers buyers a 20% state backed handout to buy overpriced accommodation when interest rates can only go one way, if housing is doing so well and is a healthy market then why the need for government intervention.

Today i wake up and see Jamie Oliver is saying that the Brits are lazy, East European immigrants are great and that his restaurants would close without them. This may be the case as we all know "other people are usually lazy,not us though" but what he is too out of touch to realise is that (MANY) of the low paid workers at his restaurants are on an array of tax payers handouts including child tax credits, housing benefit, working tax credit, child benefit, council tax benefit, free child care and free healthcare and education to enable them to work for a cheap enough price. And as low paid service sector jobs are why our economy is allegedly growing i fail to see how its sustainable. Besides an economy is there to serve its people we have an economy based on cheap labour to serve the few, this publicity seeker is just one of the lucky winners.

I don't know when the bubble will burst they've managed to keep the plates spinning since 2008, but i do know that all bubbles burst eventually.

Edited August 28, 2013 by NeverToReturn

[transam]

Read today that migrants in the UK without UK citizenship/passport are to be given the vote on stuff.

[chiang mai]

Without spending all day looking...

Out of interest what is the historical baht/£ average for the last 15+ years?

Found this graph/table for the last 10 - 58.85.

Does 60 also sound about right since 1997?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=THB&view=10Y

http://www.ozforex.com.au/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/historical-exchange-rates

RAZZ

I would guess that where you're trying to get to with that is a better understanding of what the fair value exchange rate should be? If anyone knows how to calculate the Trade Weighted Value then that would be the place to start I would imgaine.In 2004 when GBP/THB was running at around 75, it was understood by most folks that GBP was overvalued on a TWI basis by about 106% (if I recall correctly). It would be interesting to see what those weighting figures look like today but it's beyond my skills today I'm afraid.

[Naam]

Read today that migrants in the UK without UK citizenship/passport are to be given the vote on stuff.

that's justified if they can pass a test fine tuning 3 SU carburettors on an old 4.2L Jaguar engine

[nong38]

Read today that migrants in the UK without UK citizenship/passport are to be given the vote on stuff.

that's justified if they can pass a test fine tuning 3 SU carburettors on an old 4.2L Jaguar engine

With twin exhaust I presume? A potato for each

[nong38]

The whole world seems to run on debt, lookily for governments nobody calls the debts in, but then they can just print more money, if I do that out the back they throw me in the chokey! Now look at the EPL clubs spending money like its going out of style, every year they spend more on players and how the wages are covered takes some working out but it goes on year after year, a bubble waiting to burst, like the clubs in the lower leagues who do go to the wall.

While interest rates are kept low the governments borrow, like us, ( well not like me)hoping that the rates dont go up an scupper their plans which it wont because they control the interest rates which is why low rates are here for a long time.

The fall of the baht is good news for exporters and us ans no doubt the BOT governor will claim all the credit for it as he did basking in the pride of Thailand's wonderfully high rate in the spring. Well lets make the most of this 49-50bts rate for as long as well can.

[mccw]

""""The number of jobless households in the UK has dropped to 17.1% in the three months to June, according the the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Households with at least one person aged 16-64 out of work was down from 17.9% in the same period last year.

It is the lowest percentage since comparable records began in 1996 and brings the total number of workless households to 3.5m.""""

-sky news

This is the almost 1 fith of lazy British benifits culture scum bags. "Whiners" as Oliver puts it- did you ever see that Gordon Ramsey show where he takes a bunch of them to try and train up? L- shows the kind exactly; east Europeans on the other hand are motivated and hard working. Its true, anyone in business can see this. This is a cultural change that needs to take place. Too soft on the unemployed makes them lazy ; finally a government is trying to combat the rotten "culture"that labour cultivated, but it a struggle against the bleeding hearts in the press, liberals, labour. How many pounds need printing to pay for all these "benefits" will ultimately be long term overwhelming determinant of how much value the £ can keep.

[mommysboy]

It occurs to me that all economies seem to inefficient and largely unproductive, it just seems that economies of scale drags them through, thus it really serves no purpose to highlight all the negative parts and so make a case why UK, Thailand, or Inner Mongolia is so bad.

I don't know if the old rules of thumb apply any more, but a 20% decline in a stock market used to be called a crash and generally heralded a recession. Remember markets aren't looking at yesterday, or now but rather tomorrow and onwards.

The dilemma for Thailand is that it is (was) hamstrung by its own strength. It would have been much better if it was in with the rest of the loonies sitting at 80% public debt, as it now has a very difficult choice, maintain a stable baht and boost exports which are the life blood, or devalue and suddenly basic commodities go higher for a population already on the edge.

It could have gone full steam ahead on planned stimulus, but the 2 trillion baht investment looks to be something of a myth. Same old story chronic under investment.

[chiang mai]

It could have gone full steam ahead on planned stimulus, but the 2 trillion baht investment looks to be something of a myth. Same old story chronic under investment.

Nail, head!

Same is true of the UK unfortunately.

[chiang mai]

""""The number of jobless households in the UK has dropped to 17.1% in the three months to June, according the the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Households with at least one person aged 16-64 out of work was down from 17.9% in the same period last year.

It is the lowest percentage since comparable records began in 1996 and brings the total number of workless households to 3.5m.""""

-sky news

This is the almost 1 fith of lazy British benifits culture scum bags. "Whiners" as Oliver puts it- did you ever see that Gordon Ramsey show where he takes a bunch of them to try and train up? L- shows the kind exactly; east Europeans on the other hand are motivated and hard working. Its true, anyone in business can see this. This is a cultural change that needs to take place. Too soft on the unemployed makes them lazy ; finally a government is trying to combat the rotten "culture"that labour cultivated, but it a struggle against the bleeding hearts in the press, liberals, labour. How many pounds need printing to pay for all these "benefits" will ultimately be long term overwhelming determinant of how much value the £ can keep.

Finally calling people chav's then boasting about watching Gordon Ramseys reality TV is an oxymoron.

Sorry mccw but I thought that was very funny.

[chiang mai]

The big question of the day is whether the current value of the Baht is costing BOT any of its foriegn currency reserves and if so, how much - for sure there's some manic swings in its value intra day compared to more "normal" times.

[Naam]

The big question of the day is whether the current value of the Baht is costing BOT any of its foriegn currency reserves and if so, how much - for sure there's some manic swings in its value intra day compared to more "normal" times.

there's no reason whatsoever that a weakening of the Baht is relevant for the reserves without intervention. and from all indications there's no intervention at all, the Baht is weakening vs. USD like most of the Asian and emerging market currencies.

by the way, my personal opinion is that the BoT doesn't like the sudden weakening and would rather have a stronger Baht.

caveat: opinions are like the proverbial body orifice of which we all (most of us) have one.

[chiang mai]

An interesting article here talks about mortgage controls about to implemented in the US, aimed at preventing a reoccurence of sub-prime and protecting the banks, almost the exact opposite of what's happening in the UK with Fannie Mae UK:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-proposal-aims-to-avoid-market-meltdown-2013-08-28

Given that what happens in the US typically gets adopted in the UK later, this doesn't bode well for Canute Carney or the future of the Pound.

Edited August 29, 2013 by chiang mai

[AnotherOneAmerican]

The big question of the day is whether the current value of the Baht is costing BOT any of its foriegn currency reserves and if so, how much - for sure there's some manic swings in its value intra day compared to more "normal" times.

There will be loads of automated 'buys' at 50, needs about 3 days at 50 for the computers to stop causing those big swings.

[chiang mai]

This should be positive for the £ , not getting dragged in to a potentially long and messy/ expensive conflict funded on borrowed/ printed money.

I agree it should but then there's the safe haven (of the Pound) not needed aspect. And since USD is strengthening that seems to magnify the disparity between GBP and USD and bring forward the chances of more QE in the UK - just thinking aloud here rather than concluding anything definite, it's probably easier to become a professional weather forecaster.

[Naam]

The big question of the day is whether the current value of the Baht is costing BOT any of its foriegn currency reserves and if so, how much - for sure there's some manic swings in its value intra day compared to more "normal" times.

There will be loads of automated 'buys' at 50, needs about 3 days at 50 for the computers to stop causing those big swings.

who or what will be "50"?

[Upnotover]

The big question of the day is whether the current value of the Baht is costing BOT any of its foriegn currency reserves and if so, how much - for sure there's some manic swings in its value intra day compared to more "normal" times.

There will be loads of automated 'buys' at 50, needs about 3 days at 50 for the computers to stop causing those big swings.

who or what will be "50"?

That's a joke right?

[chiang mai]

The big question of the day is whether the current value of the Baht is costing BOT any of its foriegn currency reserves and if so, how much - for sure there's some manic swings in its value intra day compared to more "normal" times.

There will be loads of automated 'buys' at 50, needs about 3 days at 50 for the computers to stop causing those big swings.

who or what will be "50"?

That's a joke right?

Nope, the 52 week high is 50.19 and we haven't got close to it in the past couple of weeks, it's currently 49.79 and heading South from what I can see.

[yoshiwara]

Nope, the 52 week high is 50.19 and we haven't got close to it in the past couple of weeks, it's currently 49.79 and heading South from what I can see.

We're not always sure which end of the telescope you are looking into.

[chiang mai]

Nope, the 52 week high is 50.19 and we haven't got close to it in the past couple of weeks, it's currently 49.79 and heading South from what I can see.

We're not always sure which end of the telescope you are looking into.

"We", should that not be "I"!

You should consider adding some input value to your posts Yosh., the oriential wiseman/mystique line doesn't swim very well any more, even if that input is only a factual correction of posts made by others. We mortals can debate such things and are always happy to be proven wrong, with fact - any form of linkage that helps educate us all, or even a counter argument that you can substantiate in some way, any or all of those things will be welcomed.

But as things stand currently, you run the risk of being seen as the sniping drive by hit man who is only able to cast a slur on the observations or opinions of others, one who adds no value to the debate and that does your credibility no good at all, it just brings you one one step closer to the ignore button.

[mccw]

This should be positive for the £ , not getting dragged in to a potentially long and messy/ expensive conflict funded on borrowed/ printed money.

I agree it should but then there's the safe haven (of the Pound) not needed aspect. And since USD is strengthening that seems to magnify the disparity between GBP and USD and bring forward the chances of more QE in the UK - just thinking aloud here rather than concluding anything definite, it's probably easier to become a professional weather forecaster.

The Americans have said they'll go ahead and bomb who ever they like with or with out UK backing. If US and say France blast in then gbp would be the western safe haven not involved so putting it perhapse as the safest of the safe haven currencies.

(Thinking out loud also)

Where does war money come from? The billions for Iraq and Afganistan? Printed. So the "taper" takes the printing press away from MBSecurities a bit maybe but it goes in to MIComplex instead.

In the UK I think war is accounted for off the books so to speak; same in USA? Maybe a way to expand money printing/ supply with out need for congressional approval? The issue is looming soon isn't it. Like "extraordinary measures" , accounting tricks, of past, the timing fits to reason.

[mommysboy]

Thailand no doubt can survive the downturn economically as discussed due to its sound finances.

But I think there will be much unrest and political upheaval, it's already boiling up now!

Not just a statistical or academic argument, equally important social factors at play.

[chiang mai]

You are right of course and it's something that most of us can't measure accurately, although we can take some comfort from the fact that historically these upsets have been limited in their impact and they typically don't impact the financial markets.

[wooloomooloo]

Thailand no doubt can survive the downturn economically as discussed due to its sound finances.

Have you thought this statement through, thoroughly?

[chiang mai]

Thailand no doubt can survive the downturn economically as discussed due to its sound finances.

Have you thought this statement through, thoroughly?

I know from this thread that he has, question is, have you?

[breadbin]

Now I have all my cash out of Thailand 68/70 in - 43.5 out) I hope we see the THB - GBP climb each week. Selfish maybe but that's life.

Good luck

[nong38]

The news on the UK economy is getting better slowly so with a rate approaching 50 will it soon pass through this magic figure? I guess we all hope so, but the boiling pot of the middle east just keps coming back to throw jokers in the pot, oil is rising as a result and that affects just about everything up from 100$ to 117$ a barrel since June, if only it were as simple as the the UK economy and the Thai economy at the moment I would say that the UK seems to be ahead, better figures and news whilst Thailand is technically in a recession.

[yoshiwara]

Now I have all my cash out of Thailand 68/70 in - 43.5 out) I hope we see the THB - GBP climb each week. Selfish maybe but that's life.

Good luck

And that is exactly how one makes the issue meaningful. Good call.

[nong38]

Now I have all my cash out of Thailand 68/70 in - 43.5 out) I hope we see the THB - GBP climb each week. Selfish maybe but that's life.

Good luck

And that is exactly how one makes the issue meaningful. Good call.

You have been lucky and done well, not many people win at both ends of the range, most are happy to make a bit, ok a bit more than a bit. It does not happen to often. When the crisis started I dumped a lot PDQ into a 4 year bond at 6.27% soon the rates tumbled, I did well but after the 4 years the best I could get was 2.35%, nice stories but not of any value to todays levels or to do with the GBP rate to the Thai BT!

At present its seems to be hovering between 49.4 to 49.8, 50 seems to be a barrier to far although I hope not, but, it a heck of a lot better than the 43.5 earlier this year.

[mccw]

Another structal issue with the pound everybody seems to have forgotten about is the health of the banks. Capital reserves are low and even the tiny increases asked for are struggled to achieve and taking task at every turn saying increased capital means decreased lending and the economy can only grow with increased lending/ debt it seems. Genes the government putting up 20% of all property purchase value interest free loans on for 5years for first time buyers; + funding for lending. Does anybody know where this money is coming from? Budget or its created money like a bank would? The economy goes in cycles; it seems now we could be starting a bit upwards trend; but sooner or later things go down. When they do these questions are important when thinking currency etc:

1) are the banks in a healthy state compared to 08?

2) is the government better or worse prepared to absorb further bailouts.

3) given we know what has come so far is it enevitable the solutions will be more of the same ie bail outs, printing/ QE; if so then can expect a similar 30% drop again if not worse- if answers to 1 and 2 is negative.