GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

' but the overwhelming consensus is that UK rates aren't capable of being increased in the short to medium term.'

 

nor in the EU or US  ? so leaving Asia's currencies to rise ...

 

  Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/secular-stagnation-coalmines-bubbles-and-larry-summers/?_r=0

 

 

The writer is half right and half an idiot. Why-dig holes and fill them up again?/ "google glasses for everybody and then throw them away, so what"- why , when the labour, energy and money could go in to something useful like infrastructure, research, clean energy or numerous other decent things.

The west has a philosophic and mental disconnect with what should be common sense.

-----------

You mention US & EU. Same applies I think.

ECB just lowered rates. And there is talk of possible QE too.

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[kingalfred]

Really needs investors to pull out of Thailand.ohh they are,and foreign manufacturers in the country to say bye.Then and only then we may get a decent exchange.Need some real bad internal strife here to get some financial gain and then it seems the thai treasury still says" we are thailand we can do this". furthermore dont change your money to thai baht when there could well be a massive financial bubble burst on the horizon.

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Edited November 17, 2013 by kingalfred

[Ticker2000]

We are in Thailand (at least I am). Thai is acceptable.

Anyway. Read around (research) how developed economies as they pass through the end of recession and for sometime after are reluctant to increase interest rates (through mainly political motives) in a timely fashion as it is easier to inflate debt away.

Its all there on the web - it will happen this way and it will be not be surprising to those that have done their research.

If you live in Thailand and do not understand the Thai language you are blind to all that is happening here. If you live in Thailand and respect your intellect learn asap!!!

[chiang mai]

We are in Thailand (at least I am). Thai is acceptable.

Anyway. Read around (research) how developed economies as they pass through the end of recession and for sometime after are reluctant to increase interest rates (through mainly political motives) in a timely fashion as it is easier to inflate debt away.

Its all there on the web - it will happen this way and it will be not be surprising to those that have done their research.

If you live in Thailand and do not understand the Thai language you are blind to all that is happening here. If you live in Thailand and respect your intellect learn asap!!!

I've lived here full time for the past ten years, the point is, this is an English language forum and Thai language is disallowed, according to forum rules.

Edited November 17, 2013 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Really needs investors to pull out of Thailand.ohh they are,and foreign manufacturers in the country to say bye.Then and only then we may get a decent exchange.Need some real bad internal strife here to get some financial gain and then it seems the thai treasury still says" we are thailand we can do this". furthermore dont change your money to thai baht when there could well be a massive financial bubble burst on the horizon. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

For the sake of the 65 million native people who live here I hope your wishes don't come true, just so that you can get a 20% discount on your holiday fun!

[Naam]

chiang mai

If you live in Thailand and do not understand the Thai language you are blind to all that is happening here. If you live in Thailand and respect your intellect learn asap!!!

please enlighten us what kind of information on Thailand is not available in English except information such as the planned change of garbage collection from tuesdays and fridays to wednesdays and saturdays in Nakhon Nowhere.

[Ticker2000]

The information that is not available in English - have you any idea how ridiculous that sounds.

If anyone thinks that to live in Thailand and not speak/read and write Thai is more beneficial on all fronts that the opposite I am happy to hear why.

More importantly CM please enlighten us with your knew found understanding of the historical lag % increases in developed economies during the exit from and post recessions.

It bears a significant impact on your most recent arguments.

[chiang mai]

The interesting thing about so many of the posters who have, or portend to have, vast knowledge on the subject of economics is that they're great at one liners and taking shots but they are never willing or able to contribute usefully to the subject matter!

[Ticker2000]

The interesting thing about so many of the posters who have, or portend to have, vast knowledge on the subject of economics is that they're great at one liners and taking shots but they are never willing or able to contribute usefully to the subject matter! And

And you call being rude a valuable contribution to the thread!!!

It is quite clear from two separate posts (and as pointed out by another poster) that you have no understanding of the concept that I presented in argument to your thoughts on the future interest movements in the UK. The only reference you made to it was incorrect and subsequently you have skirted the issue as you are out of your depth.

I would read around the area I outlined as it has a real bearing on your thoughts and hopefully return with a structured argument against or maybe in agreement with.

[chiang mai]

The interesting thing about so many of the posters who have, or portend to have, vast knowledge on the subject of economics is that they're great at one liners and taking shots but they are never willing or able to contribute usefully to the subject matter! And

And you call being rude a valuable contribution to the thread!!!

It is quite clear from two separate posts (and as pointed out by another poster) that you have no understanding of the concept that I presented in argument to your thoughts on the future interest movements in the UK. The only reference you made to it was incorrect and subsequently you have skirted the issue as you are out of your depth.

I would read around the area I outlined as it has a real bearing on your thoughts and hopefully return with a structured argument against or maybe in agreement with.

I rest my case!

[Ticker2000]

I think he was referring to inflating away national debts rather than inflation accompanying every recession.

Can you find a chart for that?

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Bbbbbut, inflating away the national debt would require higher rates of interest, some good reasons why not here: http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/06/escaping-debt-crisis

And if anyone wants to go to the trouble of overlaying the following graph, onto the one above, the picture should be more clear.

It think you need to start again by reading the basics of how interests are used to control inflation as you clearly do not understand the basics from what you wrote in this post. MCCW had to correct you again - which you simply ignored again. The ignorant ones are often the rudest - it a form of defence.

The area you need to read up can be found under Monetary Economic Policy in case you did not know where to start.

Let us know if you do not understand anything. I am sure someone will give you a hand...

[chiang mai]

MCCW's correction in post 1770 was of poster called 52:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/612416-gbp-to-thb-exchange-rate/page-71#entry7048907

[mccw]

To be clear- I say "interest rates are a policy tool to control inflation; Not a cause of inflation in themselves", the current policies aims of low rates and QE are aimed squarely at inflating/ printing the debts away, as we have been discussing they are unlikely to be willing or able to do anything else but continue on this course. As has been seen, with the changing of statistical measures, the powers that be would hide the that does occur so that they can continue the policy unabated.

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[FiftyTwo]

GBP/THB highest rate for a year now at 50.85

[Ticker2000]

Post 1757

[Ticker2000]

CM wrote this in post 1758

"inflating away the national debt would require higher rates of interest"

Please explain the mechanics of this as you see them. Just want to check you have grip on the fundamentals.

Or are you going to skirt this question as well. If you do answer please do not copy and paste others graphs/prose. Please explain in your own words.

[Naam]

To be clear- I say "interest rates are a policy tool to control inflation; Not a cause of inflation in themselves", the current policies aims of low rates and QE are aimed squarely at inflating/ printing the debts away, as we have been discussing they are unlikely to be willing or able to do anything else but continue on this course. As has been seen, with the changing of statistical measures, the powers that be would hide the that does occur so that they can continue the policy unabated.

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as we have been discussing...

cough... cough... how exactly do low interest rates and QE "inflate/print" debt away? reveal the secret please!

[chiang mai]

All the "experts" want to do is set tests and exams for everyone else but not offer up explanations or guidance, quite amazing behavior really.

[mccw]

To be clear- I say "interest rates are a policy tool to control inflation; Not a cause of inflation in themselves", the current policies aims of low rates and QE are aimed squarely at inflating/ printing the debts away, as we have been discussing they are unlikely to be willing or able to do anything else but continue on this course. As has been seen, with the changing of statistical measures, the powers that be would hide the that does occur so that they can continue the policy unabated.

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as we have been discussing...

cough... cough... how exactly do low interest rates and QE "inflate/print" debt away? reveal the secret please!

 

 

 

QE in UK is the creation of money which buys UK gov bonds/ guilts keeping rates down; also since old debt is getting paid back and replaced by newly printed money/ debt which the interest paid by gov to BoE is then circled back to the treasury

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-20268679

This is effectively paying off externally held debt with Printed money. "Monetising debt" is a common term you could google if my explanation isn't clear enough.

Inflation on the other hand is less direct but with similar effect by reducing the value of money it leaves the inflation adjusted amount less to be repaid than when the loans were first taken out.

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[Naam]

mccw

This is effectively paying off externally held debt with Printed money. "Monetising debt" is a common term you could google if my explanation isn't clear enough.

your explanation is confusing. i don't know whether i should laugh out loudly or cry bitterly.

no offence meant!

[chiang mai]

And here's my contribution to the homework assignments, all the answers are in there hence a good grounding in the fundamentals can be had for anyone who wishes it. I could have converted it into a nice little hand written piece and claimed it as my own thus impressing teacher but since he's a untested newbie, this is the best he gets:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

Of particular interest is the sixth bullet point under Remedies for Indebtedness, a remedy that historically has increased interest rates!

And er, GBP/THB is at 50.61 via SCB Thailand.

http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/index.jsp

Edited November 19, 2013 by chiang mai

[mccw]

mccw

This is effectively paying off externally held debt with Printed money. "Monetising debt" is a common term you could google if my explanation isn't clear enough.

your explanation is confusing. i don't know whether i should laugh out loudly or cry bitterly.

 

no offence meant!

Maybe the ft can explain it better than me:

""""

When a government spends in excess of its tax revenue it must borrow from the public. The public purchases this debt because it pays an attractive interest rate. If the government has a significant amount of debt outstanding, it may choose to purchase its own debt with newly printed currency. The government has thereby replaced its interest-bearing debt with money, and has thus monetised part of its debt.

""""""

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=monetisation

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[chiang mai]

Personally I thought it was pretty clear and self explanatory the first time around.

[chiang mai]

Here's what Nadeem thinks, 7% inflation and 4.5% base rate by EOY14:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43160.html

[i claudius]

Does anyone think that the pound will go to 55 baht to the pound ? and why.

[Naam]

mccw

This is effectively paying off externally held debt with Printed money. "Monetising debt" is a common term you could google if my explanation isn't clear enough.

your explanation is confusing. i don't know whether i should laugh out loudly or cry bitterly.

no offence meant!

Maybe the ft can explain it better than me:

""""

When a government spends in excess of its tax revenue it must borrow from the public. The public purchases this debt because it pays an attractive interest rate. If the government has a significant amount of debt outstanding, it may choose to purchase its own debt with newly printed currency. The government has thereby replaced its interest-bearing debt with money, and has thus monetised part of its debt.

""""""

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=monetisation

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the FT cannot explain better if one stops copying and pasting to avoid the next sentence which states a very relevant fact, namely...

"Inflation is an unfortunate consequence of debt monetisation."

quantitative easing, as presently practised by several countries, has not and does not cause any inflation because...

-no money is printed which reaches the pockets of the consumer and can be spent to cause inflation.

-the tale that cheap money causes extensive inflation by driving up the price of commodities, e.g. food stuff, has been proven wrong.

i could list another dozen points but that would be a waste of time in an exchange rate thread that focusses primarily on GBPTHB.

summary: no inflation = no monetising of debt. period!

sent from my mobile communicator on modulated unencrypted subspace wave.

[mccw]

 

 

mccw

This is effectively paying off externally held debt with Printed money. "Monetising debt" is a common term you could google if my explanation isn't clear enough.

your explanation is confusing. i don't know whether i should laugh out loudly or cry bitterly.

 

no offence meant!

Maybe the ft can explain it better than me:

""""

When a government spends in excess of its tax revenue it must borrow from the public. The public purchases this debt because it pays an attractive interest rate. If the government has a significant amount of debt outstanding, it may choose to purchase its own debt with newly printed currency. The government has thereby replaced its interest-bearing debt with money, and has thus monetised part of its debt.

""""""

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=monetisation

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

the FT cannot explain better if one stops copying and pasting to avoid the next sentence which states a very relevant fact, namely...

 

"Inflation is an unfortunate consequence of debt monetisation."

 

quantitative easing, as presently practised by several countries, has not and does not cause any inflation because...

 

-no money is printed which reaches the pockets of the consumer and can be spent to cause inflation.

 

-the tale that cheap money causes extensive inflation by driving up the price of commodities, e.g. food stuff, has been proven wrong.

 

 

summary: no inflation = no monetising of debt. period!

 

.

"""summary: no inflation = no monetising of debt. period!"""

Eeeerrrrm sorry, but no, the monetising of debt is as the definition states- the paying off of inert area paying debt with printed money/ debt wich is net zero cost to the government.

A bi-product of monetisation might be inflation. There has been inflation in many asset classes, most notably the stock markets and bond prices, due to this money creation, lower yields and subsequent chase for yield. There has been plenty of inflation. An argument can be made that the consumer inflation hasn't been higher due to the purposeful dampening of demand due to the austerity policies. So a careful balancing act. Inflation in assets where they want it and a manageable cost of living (which incidentally is slowly becoming a political hot potato what with food and especially energy prices rising fast than wages). So the government is really quite skilfully having their cake and eating it.

I think probably there are engineers to this whole thing across the west who realised that unless this policy was taken there simply would not be enough rescourse a to go around and inflation would trees then their power/ game/ stability of whole world. Imagine if the money was actually put in to real growth policies and all west was growing at 10% a year like china, imajime there was no crash in 08/9, by now oil would be at 2-300 dollars, the costs of everything would have exploded. I think we are in a carefully managed stagnation and the powers that be are scared shod things getting out of hand in one way or another, deflation or inflation- the whole QE experiment was a huge gamble and shows total desperation and gravity or what a messy situation we were/ are in. A good degree of luck and blind faith has gotten is this far I think.

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[mccw]

Predictive text messed up the definition part at start of my last post. Just read the original. Its obvious.

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[Ticker2000]

They are stopping printing money in the UK (increasing money supply!!) . Factor into your arguments this with near term reference. Nobody here is at present. US will follow whether in 3, 6, , 12 months. It will happen in the short and not mid term.

When they all cease we are back increasingly to a standard end and post recession game.

At which point the powers that be will let rampant inflation occur at the cost of Jo Bloggs as they have always down in the hope to inflate debt away. They will not use interest rates in a timely fashion to curb inflation as it never serves political motives. Read Read Read..

All there in the history books if you want to cut and paste again - you know who!!

[Ticker2000]

Baht crosses 51 then it may be in real problems again given the back drop - instabilty at home, QE on the way out, West on the up, Thai economy bobbing - list goes on...

Flouncer - give me a treat and write something of insight without cutting and pasting others works - did your lecturers not notice your plagiarism as we do.... or was it a Poly...