GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[Ticker2000]

Really interested on others thoughts on - and from Flounce if not cut and pasted - on the credit scenario here.

From one who uses leverage here for biz and previously/still in the Uk it seems like the banks are starting and maybe well down the road of ruining the lives of 100,000s of households. Brokers and mid level bank employees manufacturing data to make sure loan/mortgages/credit card/corporate finance sale through etc.

The difference from today and 16 years ago (they did then too) was that now they are doing it for the ill informed mass.

Just concerned and watching very carefully...

[mccw]

They are stopping printing money in the UK (increasing money supply!!) . Factor into your arguments this with near term reference. Nobody here is at present.  US will follow whether in 3, 6, , 12 months. It will happen in the short and not mid term.

 

When they all cease we are back increasingly to a standard end and post recession game.

 

At which point the powers that be will let rampant inflation occur at the cost of Jo Bloggs as they have always down in the hope to inflate debt away. They will not use interest rates in a timely fashion to curb inflation as it never serves political motives. Read Read Read..

 

All there in the history books if you want to cut and paste again - you know who!!

Although the £365billion QE was announced a while back it is still being dispersed which is why the market rate on UK gov debt remains so low. I expect they will have little choice but to commence another round of QE at some point to keep rates down and the whole system solvent - this is not factored in to any of "your" (TVers or markets) calculations. The existing QE is already factored in hence the 20-30% drop of sterling around/ just after the announcement. Not doing another round of QE doesn't remove the new money from the system does it? So its not a reason for a move back up by 20 or 30%. But the reintroduction of significant QE would increase supply and make it drop; a course of non action would be flat subject to the constant amount in circulation of speculative flows.

----- disclaimer- ofcourse I can be wrong about everything- these are just personal theorising a and should not be taken as statements of fact or investment advice:)--------- (often I hold multiple conflicting opinions on the same subject even and it comes down to a plump on a view of probabilities)

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[mccw]

Btw I largely agree with you ticker that the real cost of living inflation will accelerate as this goes on. Indeed I think it has been already and the stats are made to hide it. Utilities rising by double digits every year for example; the cost of essentials masked by the inclusion of discredit art goods.

What I am worried about is a dissintergration 5-10years down the line where disposable incomes are so eroded that what is a service based economy can no longer go on extending and pretending. Hopefully they must start some real nation building policies by then or a proper nightmare will unfold. Around the time the interest free period of "help to buy" scheme arrives maybe.

But a part of me still believes in England as one of the oldest and most stable market economies the world; still the 6th biggest economy in the world; still the place where the wealthy chose as a safe haven; so my another theory goes - that Great Britain will pull through it all and be a good income producing place for my property investments for generations to come (despite all my negativity, research and chat here, which is largely the worst case scenario sides of my brain talking)

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[mccw]

As I was saying :

""""

Citizens Advice chief executive Gillian Guy said: "Price hikes of 36% over the last three years, coupled with poor customer service, has compounded the lack of trust in energy firms as households struggle to afford to have a warm home."

"""""

From sky news app

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[bartender100]

Baht to Pound has hit 51 today, not seen that for a long time

[Naam]

Baht to Pound has hit 51 today, not seen that for a long time

the highest Thai bank TT rate i see is 50.795 (a three year GBPTHB high).

[RAZZELL]

But a part of me still believes in England as one of the oldest and most stable market economies the world; still the 6th biggest economy in the world; still the place where the wealthy chose as a safe haven; so my another theory goes - that Great Britain will pull through it all and be a good income producing place for my property investments for generations to come (despite all my negativity, research and chat here, which is largely the worst case scenario sides of my brain talking)

And that is one of the reasons why the pound remains strong (ish)...despite all the terrible economic indicators.

You cant take the "human element" out of currency traders.

The UK is a "safe" place to invest because as a nation it still has the rule of law.

RAZZ

[Naam]

the negative views of mccw and chiang mai seem to exert a positive influence on GBPTHB. i therefore suggest that Brits living in Thailand encourage their fellow countrymen to be even more aggressive. perhaps then we see the 51 soon?

[Naam]

Btw I largely agree with you ticker that the real cost of living inflation will accelerate as this goes on. Indeed I think it has been already and the stats are made to hide it. Utilities rising by double digits every year for example; the cost of essentials masked by the inclusion of discredit art goods.

What I am worried about is a dissintergration 5-10years down the line where disposable incomes are so eroded that what is a service based economy can no longer go on extending and pretending. Hopefully they must start some real nation building policies by then or a proper nightmare will unfold. Around the time the interest free period of "help to buy" scheme arrives maybe.

But a part of me still believes in England as one of the oldest and most stable market economies the world; still the 6th biggest economy in the world; still the place where the wealthy chose as a safe haven; so my another theory goes - that Great Britain will pull through it all and be a good income producing place for my property investments for generations to come (despite all my negativity, research and chat here, which is largely the worst case scenario sides of my brain talking)

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

still the place where the wealthy chose as a safe haven...

the reason why the wealthy chose and still choose UK is not because of "safe haven" but because billionaires (Mittal, Russian Oligarchs, al-Fayed et al) are living in UK virtually tax free.

[chiang mai]

the negative views of mccw and chiang mai seem to exert a positive influence on GBPTHB. i therefore suggest that Brits living in Thailand encourage their fellow countrymen to be even more aggressive. perhaps then we see the 51 soon?

Those interested in more probable reasons for a strengthening THB might also look towards the current political troubles in Bangkok and a weakened USD, neither of which will last forever.

[bartender100]

Baht to Pound has hit 51 today, not seen that for a long time

the highest Thai bank TT rate i see is 50.795 (a three year GBPTHB high).

I usually refer to XE Currency convertor, its the first time I have seen it hit B51 to Pound today for ages maybe more than 3 years

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/

[chiang mai]

Sites such as XE and Oanda typically show the midpoint by default, you can't actually exchange GBP for THB at that rate. To get an accurate idea of the current rate, try looking at SCB Thailand or similar, that'll give you a true exchange rate, alternatively try this site (adjust the setting at the top of the page first):

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[bartender100]

Sites such as XE and Oanda typically show the midpoint by default, you can't actually exchange GBP for THB at that rate. To get an accurate idea of the current rate, try looking at SCB Thailand or similar, that'll give you a true exchange rate, alternatively try this site (adjust the setting at the top of the page first):

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Agreed, but if its the first time showing on there, then the bank rate will follow later this week

[Naam]

Sites such as XE and Oanda typically show the midpoint by default, you can't actually exchange GBP for THB at that rate. To get an accurate idea of the current rate, try looking at SCB Thailand or similar, that'll give you a true exchange rate, alternatively try this site (adjust the setting at the top of the page first):

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Agreed, but if its the first time showing on there, then the bank rate will follow later this week

no it does not "follow" and Chiang Mai's explanation is correct. every currency has a bid and an ask rate. sites like xe.com show a calculated midrate which does not tally with the rate a bank pays for Pounds. the midrate is only used for guidance.

[i claudius]

yesterday using my metro bank card at an aeon machine in Pattaya i got 50.84 baht for one pound.

[Huayrat]

They are stopping printing money in the UK (increasing money supply!!) . Factor into your arguments this with near term reference. Nobody here is at present. US will follow whether in 3, 6, , 12 months. It will happen in the short and not mid term.

When they all cease we are back increasingly to a standard end and post recession game.

At which point the powers that be will let rampant inflation occur at the cost of Jo Bloggs as they have always down in the hope to inflate debt away. They will not use interest rates in a timely fashion to curb inflation as it never serves political motives. Read Read Read..

All there in the history books if you want to cut and paste again - you know who!!

Although the £365billion QE was announced a while back it is still being dispersed which is why the market rate on UK gov debt remains so low. I expect they will have little choice but to commence another round of QE at some point to keep rates down and the whole system solvent - this is not factored in to any of "your" (TVers or markets) calculations. The existing QE is already factored in hence the 20-30% drop of sterling around/ just after the announcement. Not doing another round of QE doesn't remove the new money from the system does it? So its not a reason for a move back up by 20 or 30%. But the reintroduction of significant QE would increase supply and make it drop; a course of non action would be flat subject to the constant amount in circulation of speculative flows.

----- disclaimer- ofcourse I can be wrong about everything- these are just personal theorising a and should not be taken as statements of fact or investment advice:)--------- (often I hold multiple conflicting opinions on the same subject even and it comes down to a plump on a view of probabilities)

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Wrong.. They want interest rates to go up and they will soon.. So there will be no more QE..

[Huayrat]

the negative views of mccw and chiang mai seem to exert a positive influence on GBPTHB. i therefore suggest that Brits living in Thailand encourage their fellow countrymen to be even more aggressive. perhaps then we see the 51 soon?

Those interested in more probable reasons for a strengthening THB might also look towards the current political troubles in Bangkok and a weakened USD, neither of which will last forever.

You where told about the political problems here months ago and that it would effect the Thai Baht but you ignored the advice of people.. Council Tax rises can't have come in yet hey..

[bartender100]

Sites such as XE and Oanda typically show the midpoint by default, you can't actually exchange GBP for THB at that rate. To get an accurate idea of the current rate, try looking at SCB Thailand or similar, that'll give you a true exchange rate, alternatively try this site (adjust the setting at the top of the page first):

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Agreed, but if its the first time showing on there, then the bank rate will follow later this week

no it does not "follow" and Chiang Mai's explanation is correct. every currency has a bid and an ask rate. sites like xe.com show a calculated midrate which does not tally with the rate a bank pays for Pounds. the midrate is only used for guidance.

B51 Thurs or Friday for sure on the currency exchanges, your missing my point, its never been 51 before till today on EX, bank rates will follow. they always do

[Ticker2000]

Offered 50.95 by broker in UK Yesterday. Negotiated.

If you had cash you could get 50.90 to 50.95 for 50's at one point at superrich all afternoon yesterday.

[Ticker2000]

QE on its way out, Asia stalling, Thailand economy stalling, political instability here, western economies rebounding, safer and better investments elsewhere - no brainer really.

I do still not believe that most of the removal of US QE has been priced in - some for sure but not all. The market know is going to happen and it will near term so will over the nest 3-6 months continue to adjust

Its been my line of argument for a while. Let hope I am correct for my sakes!!!

[Ticker2000]

Baht Falls to 2-Month Low on Political, Growth Risks; Bonds Drop

By Yumi Teso - Nov 20, 2013 2:44 PM GMT+0700

Thailand’s baht fell by the most in more than a week amid concern political unrest will further slow the economy. Ten-year sovereign bonds dropped for a third day.

The currency touched a two-month low as the Constitutional Court ruled against the government’s attempt to establish a fully elected Senate that would have resulted in the disbanding of the ruling party, according to a live broadcast on the TPBS TV channel. Supporters and opponents of the government are holding separate demonstrations in Bangkok today. The economy grew 2.7 percent last quarter, slowing from 2.9 percent in the previous three months that was the weakest since the first quarter of 2012, official data showed Nov. 18.

“The political situation in Thailand remains uncertain and the economic outlook is weak,” said Tohru Nishihama, an economist covering emerging markets at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc. in Tokyo. “The baht will probably continue to see some downward pressure for a while.”

The baht fell 0.3 percent, the biggest loss since Nov. 11, to 31.68 per dollar as of 2:36 p.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 31.74 earlier, the weakest level since Sept. 18.

One-month implied volatility, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, declined two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 5.94 percent.

Thailand’s government cut its 2013 expansion forecast on Nov. 18 to 3 percent from a range of 3.8 percent to 4.3 percent projected in August. It also said it expected no export growth this year, compared with 5 percent in 2012.

The yield on the 3.625 percent sovereign bonds due June 2023 increased four basis points to a two-month high of 4.13 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Edited November 20, 2013 by Ticker2000

[chiang mai]

You where told about the political problems here months ago and that it would effect the Thai Baht but you ignored the advice of people..

Months ago it was a possible risk, today it's a risk, you do understand the meaning of the word "probable", don't you!

[chiang mai]

I was trying to work out what the likely impact on the exchange rate is, if any, of the civil unrest in Bangkok currently so I looked at 2010 and the foreign currency reserves, consider this a straw man:

In 2010 when the army was out in force and over 90 people were killed and several thousands were injured, the impact on THB was minimal. The currency fell slightly against USD during the early part of 2010 as the troubles brewed but largely remained flat throughout the conflict. It is thought that BOT intervened in the currency markets during May 2010 in order to maintain THB value , by June 2010 the reserves spent on that exercise had been almost been totally recouped – the following table of foreign currency reserves (USD) tells the story:

Feb 2010 – 141.8 bill

Mar 2010 – 144.1 bill

April 2010 – 147.6 bill.

May 2010 – 143.5 bill

June 2010 – 146.8 bill

July 2010 – 151.5 bill

Today the civil unrest in Bangkok looks somewhat like a repeat of 2010 although we cannot be certain, the situation may escalate or it may peter out and all be over very quickly, it is very early days in that respect – I guesstimate that we are probably at an equivalent point in the proceedings equal to around March 2010.

Today the BOT reserves stand at 172.0 bill, up only 2.0 bill on June but down 7 bill. on February. However, during that same period the USD/THB exchange rate has moved from 29.79 to 31.09 hence it's costing more Baht to buy fewer dollars, exports have also been muted in recent months, both of which may account for the slower accumulation in foreign currency holdings.

I don't know enough about what else the reserves may have been spent on, it does seem however that BOT was probably not supporting the Baht prior to June 2013 when the larger fall in the reserves took place since that period was mostly uneventful with the exception of the rice pledging scheme fiasco. If all of that is correct then hardly any of the current Baht depreciation results from political unrest and the majority results from movements in USD. In going forward we can probably expect a similar scenario to 2010 whereby the exchange rate remains unaffected although BOT may intervene if conditions deteriorate.

[Naam]

Sites such as XE and Oanda typically show the midpoint by default, you can't actually exchange GBP for THB at that rate. To get an accurate idea of the current rate, try looking at SCB Thailand or similar, that'll give you a true exchange rate, alternatively try this site (adjust the setting at the top of the page first):

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Agreed, but if its the first time showing on there, then the bank rate will follow later this week

no it does not "follow" and Chiang Mai's explanation is correct. every currency has a bid and an ask rate. sites like xe.com show a calculated midrate which does not tally with the rate a bank pays for Pounds. the midrate is only used for guidance.

B51 Thurs or Friday for sure on the currency exchanges, your missing my point, its never been 51 before till today on EX, bank rates will follow. they always do

your are missing my point that there's no such thing like "following rates".

[Ticker2000]

I was trying to work out what the likely impact on the exchange rate is, if any, of the civil unrest in Bangkok currently so I looked at 2010 and the foreign currency reserves, consider this a straw man:

In 2010 when the army was out in force and over 90 people were killed and several thousands were injured, the impact on THB was minimal. The currency fell slightly against USD during the early part of 2010 as the troubles brewed but largely remained flat throughout the conflict. It is thought that BOT intervened in the currency markets during May 2010 in order to maintain THB value , by June 2010 the reserves spent on that exercise had been almost been totally recouped – the following table of foreign currency reserves (USD) tells the story:

Feb 2010 – 141.8 bill

Mar 2010 – 144.1 bill

April 2010 – 147.6 bill.

May 2010 – 143.5 bill

June 2010 – 146.8 bill

July 2010 – 151.5 bill

Today the civil unrest in Bangkok looks somewhat like a repeat of 2010 although we cannot be certain, the situation may escalate or it may peter out and all be over very quickly, it is very early days in that respect – I guesstimate that we are probably at an equivalent point in the proceedings equal to around March 2010.

Today the BOT reserves stand at 172.0 bill, up only 2.0 bill on June but down 7 bill. on February. However, during that same period the USD/THB exchange rate has moved from 29.79 to 31.09 hence it's costing more Baht to buy fewer dollars, exports have also been muted in recent months, both of which may account for the slower accumulation in foreign currency holdings.

I don't know enough about what else the reserves may have been spent on, it does seem however that BOT was probably not supporting the Baht prior to June 2013 when the larger fall in the reserves took place since that period was mostly uneventful with the exception of the rice pledging scheme fiasco. If all of that is correct then hardly any of the current Baht depreciation results from political unrest and the majority results from movements in USD. In going forward we can probably expect a similar scenario to 2010 whereby the exchange rate remains unaffected although BOT may intervene if conditions deteriorate.

There are a other factors at play here which were non existent in 2010. It is far more potent mix.

How it opens today will tell a lot. 51 would be quite an important breach technically.

[chiang mai]

There are no support or resistance levels on GBP/THB so why do you think breaching 51 is technically important?

[mccw]

They are stopping printing money in the UK (increasing money supply!!) . Factor into your arguments this with near term reference. Nobody here is at present.  US will follow whether in 3, 6, , 12 months. It will happen in the short and not mid term.

 

When they all cease we are back increasingly to a standard end and post recession game.

 

At which point the powers that be will let rampant inflation occur at the cost of Jo Bloggs as they have always down in the hope to inflate debt away. They will not use interest rates in a timely fashion to curb inflation as it never serves political motives. Read Read Read..

 

All there in the history books if you want to cut and paste again - you know who!!

Although the £365billion QE was announced a while back it is still being dispersed which is why the market rate on UK gov debt remains so low. I expect they will have little choice but to commence another round of QE at some point to keep rates down and the whole system solvent - this is not factored in to any of "your" (TVers or markets) calculations. The existing QE is already factored in hence the 20-30% drop of sterling around/ just after the announcement. Not doing another round of QE doesn't remove the new money from the system does it? So its not a reason for a move back up by 20 or 30%. But the reintroduction of significant QE would increase supply and make it drop; a course of non action would be flat subject to the constant amount in circulation of speculative flows.

----- disclaimer- ofcourse I can be wrong about everything- these are just personal theorising a and should not be taken as statements of fact or investment advice:)--------- (often I hold multiple conflicting opinions on the same subject even and it comes down to a plump on a view of probabilities)

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Wrong.. They want interest rates to go up and they will soon.. So there will be no more QE..

Wrong maybe your opinion on my view of future rates movement; but right now it is only right to say "they" do not want rates up or the BoE would have put them up themselves already. If you think "they" want higher rates going forward / "soon" would you explain why that is what they desire/ how it will help the economy/ deficit, etc?

And- What do you mean "so there will be no more QE"? Are you suggesting a rise in rates would negate the need for QE?

Come come, prove you aren't just full of patriotic bluster with no brain or understanding enough to debate on the actual technicalities.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[chiang mai]

One of course has to query who "they", who would want such a thing, are, little fairies down the end of the garden perchance!

[mccw]

I share CMs view on minimal bht impact as most likely probability regards the Bangkok/ Thai political situation. I was here during the coup in 06 and nothing much happened really, the economy keeps trundling along, and that a full military take over; right now we are a long way off that. Maybe if the PT break their words again and force through the amnesty then we have another coup, maybe a bit of blood on the streets even, but the country and economy will carry on. Its only a very small number who are brainwashed enough to due for Thaksin; most Thais just want to get on with life and will accept, even welcome the military installing stability.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[chiang mai]

QE on its way out, Asia stalling, Thailand economy stalling, political instability here, western economies rebounding, safer and better investments elsewhere - no brainer really.

I do still not believe that most of the removal of US QE has been priced in - some for sure but not all. The market know is going to happen and it will near term so will over the nest 3-6 months continue to adjust

Its been my line of argument for a while. Let hope I am correct for my sakes!!!

Let me correct your post, for the sake of accuracy and because I think it is a brainer:

US Fed's QE may be on the way out, when that will happen remains as unclear as ever.

Thailand's economy is slowing but GDP still remains about 3% above that of most Western countries.

Political instability, an everyday feature of Thailand rears it's head again, it's unlikely this will have an impact on the currency although it may well cause a temporary drop in GDP.

Safer investment opportunities exist elsewhere although not in many places where the returns can easily be free of tax. Europe may have opportunities although since rates there are likely to turn negative it may well be that at least some of the money that would ordinarily have been invested there will now be looking perhaps East for a new investment home.

Only time will tell the degree to which the removal of QE has been priced in, other countries in the region appear far more exposed than Thailand in this respect hence it is not a foregone conclusion that the Thai economy will suffer as a result.

There, I think that's a more accurate and unbiased reflection of where we are.