GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

Interesting how

the media talk has quite suddenly moved from propaganda and joy at the housing market recovery

To that of doom, debt bombs and train wrecks

Conspiracy theory (3) ie globalist agenda to subjugate and impoverish the western world ..... Part two - take 1 signs of just beginning

Haha (?)

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[mccw]

We all know the media are controlled by the globalist string pullers of course

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[Ticker2000]

Can some one please post something that is relevant.

[Ticker2000]

Or vaguely interesting from......

[smedly]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

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I knew about the first part but not the second, any idea why, on the surface it seems like an odd move?

they are using every possible means to cool the property market apart from raising interest rates - and interest rate rise would increase the strength of sterling and that is not what they want right now - In my opinion

Oh and from an earlier post I made about this government having no money and telling lies through their teeth and the 2 trillion baht loan - my gut feel seems to be correct

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/685255-thai-govt-urgently-selling-rice-to-fill-state-coffers/

Edited November 29, 2013 by smedly

[Mark79]

I think CM and MCCW's posts have always been relevant to the topic of GBP/THB and fairly interesting. Yes, they are pound negative, which is against my personal views...or better phrased my personal hopes given that I still hold quite a few bob in sterling:)

I have been following this thread since the start on and off, but rarely comment as I have just been taking all the info in weather it be GBP positive or negative.

When I first came to Thailand in 2001 I was receiving mid 60's to the pound, which then rose to mid 70's, and then slumped to the lows of just below 44 earlier this year. Using FXtop.com which gives mid market rates the GBP/THB averages 51.7 over the last 30 years, 57.2 over the last 20 years, and 59.2 over the last 10 years. Rock bottom for the pound was around 1986 when the GBP dropped to 27.3 to the pound (which was when the USD was pegged to the Baht and almost reached 1:1 to the GBP) You would get 60+ average if you take it back from present day to when the baht was floated.

With all that in mind, although I would love to see the dizzy hights of 70+ to the pound again I think mid 50's is quite a good rate for the GBP. That is just my personal views following mathematical averages though, anything could happen in the future! I would think another 97 style crash is on the cards for Thailand going by "history repeats itself" and all that, but I don't think it is due quite yet. Thats my tuppence worth anyway

[chiang mai]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

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I knew about the first part but not the second, any idea why, on the surface it seems like an odd move?

they are using every possible means to cool the property market apart from raising interest rates - and interest rate rise would increase the strength of sterling and that is not what they want right now - In my opinion

In the context of the GBP exchange rate:

Have you considered what will happen if the market doesn't cool and then goes pop at some point?

And have you considered what will happen when rates are increased?

[chiang mai]

I think CM and MCCW's posts have always been relevant to the topic of GBP/THB and fairly interesting. Yes, they are pound negative, which is against my personal views...or better phrased my personal hopes given that I still hold quite a few bob in sterling:)

I have been following this thread since the start on and off, but rarely comment as I have just been taking all the info in weather it be GBP positive or negative.

When I first came to Thailand in 2001 I was receiving mid 60's to the pound, which then rose to mid 70's, and then slumped to the lows of just below 44 earlier this year. Using FXtop.com which gives mid market rates the GBP/THB averages 51.7 over the last 30 years, 57.2 over the last 20 years, and 59.2 over the last 10 years. Rock bottom for the pound was around 1986 when the GBP dropped to 27.3 to the pound (which was when the USD was pegged to the Baht and almost reached 1:1 to the GBP) You would get 60+ average if you take it back from present day to when the baht was floated.

With all that in mind, although I would love to see the dizzy hights of 70+ to the pound again I think mid 50's is quite a good rate for the GBP. That is just my personal views following mathematical averages though, anything could happen in the future! I would think another 97 style crash is on the cards for Thailand going by "history repeats itself" and all that, but I don't think it is due quite yet. Thats my tuppence worth anyway

I agree with the earlier comments that it doesn't make sense to try and average the exchange rate of any period, the results are meaningless. The hard peg to USD is a part of the problem, the crash was another, if any period makes sense it might be the past five years although that was the subject of QE hence it's misleading once again.

[FiftyTwo]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

It's to create a nation of wage slaves.

When you have a house and a large debt, you have few choices in life apart from, work, work, work.

A nation of renters, that can change address easily at a moments notice are far harder to control, police and tax.

Edited November 30, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[mccw]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

It's to create a nation of wage slaves.

When you have a house and a large debt, you have few choices in life apart from, work, work, work.

A nation of renters, that can change address easily at a moments notice are far harder to control, police and tax.

Did you take a look at that "make me a German" bbc documentary? A full half the population are life long renters and average debts 30k rather than the UKs 50. Makes for a more stable economy and housing market apparently; but not sure the Germans are any less "controlled, policed or taxed". I rather term the bankers as parasites than slave drivers; people choose/ not forced to take out the loans; also debt is very useful sometimes, I couldn't have grown my business with out it for example, but the rates they charge and the right of private bankers to issue the money out of thin air and get rich off that is not the best way to run things in my view. The state could own the banks and profit off the proceeds and use that money to circle back in to the economy building infrastructure and providing services and such rather than enriching a tiny elite.

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[mccw]

Carney says basically - Homeowners must find a way to pay their mortgages if interest rates rise because they will not be guaranteed a helping hand, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

According to sky news app. See media for full chat.

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[wooloomooloo]

Carney says basically - Homeowners must find a way to pay their mortgages if interest rates rise because they will not be guaranteed a helping hand, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

Maybe homeowners can ask their parents' advice as to how they coped in the '80s at up to 17%.

[crumpled]

...and Bangkok Bank closes at a healthy [for me] 51.76 to 1 GBP.

And you are being robbed!! (not meant nastily, of course, as I know you are a lot happier with the FX rate, as am I).

I check the mastercard FX rates online (I use Mastercard for my money in Thailand) and see they are over 52 Baht to the £ for Thurs & Fri. Comparing that to the low rates in the summer, that is very good news for the likes of us. An extra 6000 Baht p.m. on each £1000. For some, that is the rent paid for on a condo or a house on the 'dark side - in Pattaya'.

Some friends in Thailand on their UK pension are breathing a huge sigh of relief at the extra amount of beers they can afford

Looking at all the serious banter here between some members I feel they forget that some of us are not really into the nuts and bolts and sometimes bickering of how it all comes about. We are happy at the current FX rates.

I'll raise an extra beer or two next month with my extra Baht - £ rates

[Naam]

Carney says basically - Homeowners must find a way to pay their mortgages if interest rates rise because they will not be guaranteed a helping hand, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.

Maybe homeowners can ask their parents' advice as to how they coped in the '80s at up to 17%.

[Naam]

In case nobody noticed; it is reported that BoE has with drawn the "funding for lending" in regards to the mortgage part of it, to "cool the housing market".

I was quite surprised by this.

At the same time the government is widening and ramping up the help to buy scheme / 20% gov backed mortgages.

It's to create a nation of wage slaves.

When you have a house and a large debt, you have few choices in life apart from, work, work, work.

A nation of renters, that can change address easily at a moments notice are far harder to control, police and tax.

Did you take a look at that "make me a German" bbc documentary? A full half the population are life long renters and average debts 30k rather than the UKs 50. Makes for a more stable economy and housing market apparently; but not sure the Germans are any less "controlled, policed or taxed". I rather term the bankers as parasites than slave drivers; people choose/ not forced to take out the loans; also debt is very useful sometimes, I couldn't have grown my business with out it for example, but the rates they charge and the right of private bankers to issue the money out of thin air and get rich off that is not the best way to run things in my view. The state could own the banks and profit off the proceeds and use that money to circle back in to the economy building infrastructure and providing services and such rather than enriching a tiny elite.

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what profits would state owned banks make?

[wooloomooloo]

And you are being robbed!! (not meant nastily, of course, as I know you are a lot happier with the FX rate, as am I).

I changed up a few hundred pounds cash yesterday morning [last of the big spenders] at opening rate of 51.64 at Bangkok Bank and informed my wife that the f/x rate had, again, increased after lunch. She replied 'aren't you slight disappointed, darling?', and I replied 'no, darling, not for 24 baht'.

[mccw]

52.6 this morning

http://www.bangkokbank.com/bangkokbank/webservices/rates/pages/fx_rates.aspx

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[Paangjang]

A million dollar Baht queastion, but ill ask anyway... How high do you guys think it will reach or will be allowed to reach, ฿55?

I dont have much but i've got a few thousand pounds i may transfer whilst the bahts weak. Then perhaps buy gold before the baht weakens anymore. Golds still attractive at less than ฿19k per ฿...

Edited December 2, 2013 by Paangjang

[Huayrat]

I hope it keeps going higher but I'd take 52 every week of the year.. Just transferred my pension of 2100 pounds and got 110 thousand baht.. Happy days

[mccw]

I hope it keeps going higher but I'd take 52 every week of the year.. Just transferred my pension of 2100 pounds and got 110 thousand baht.. Happy days

Very up beat report from the biz insider app, quoting a Markit report, part of which is here:

""UK economic numbers continue to stun in how good they are.

The latest example is the PMI manufacturing report, which just came out today.

The headline number spiked from 56.4 to 58.5, roundly beating expectations.""""

(That's a 19year high apparently)

They are also loving the housing boom and Carney.

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[Ticker2000]

Deleted post as was posted more than once.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Ticker2000

[Ticker2000]

Deleted post as was posted more than once.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Ticker2000

[Ticker2000]

Well it was spiralling out of control at open - more than .5 a THB from close on Friday. A significant move. Then given that nothing has really changed re the back drop it started to pair it losses. As reuters speculates it looks like the CB may have intervened again.

At the moment it seem to me that it is a battle between the CB and markets. Does the CB have the clout/willingness to combat the market forces for a prolonged period. I doubt it.

Still feeling greedy to 55. If it gets there I will start hedging.

If QE looms it head again 60 in a flash. I will move anything left anywhere near that point.

Past that would be equal to the economy collapsing, all out civil war in BKK and US starting tapering all in conjunction - all unlikely in the near term and all in conjunction near impossible.

Read Reuters - its very informative but nobody posts about it here.

It also often refer to the market view on resistant points technically - this is more for Naam and the person that has me on ignore!!

[mccw]

Ticker

When you say 60 in event of QE- you mean thai QE? (Never heard of such on the cards. Surely not 60 if UK QE, since that would weaken the pound not the bht. If QE in UK I'd put the rate at more like around 40.

I agree on your other two points. But would add if / when the politics in bkk settles down then the bht weakens dissipates and things get back to around 48-50 ish.

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[Ticker2000]

53 is massive (covert into $ if you need to CM). It bounced off today for whatever reason. Just like 51 to 53 was huge. If it manages past 53 you are at 55 quickly. Not as certain as I was at 51. CB and BKK main things to watch. From what i am reading the observers think it is a distinct possibility. I am still feeling greedy but less so

Edited December 2, 2013 by Ticker2000

[Ticker2000]

Ticker

When you say 60 in event of QE- you mean thai QE? (Never heard of such on the cards. Surely not 60 if UK QE, since that would weaken the pound not the bht. If QE in UK I'd put the rate at more like around 40.

I agree on your other two points. But would add if / when the politics in bkk settles down then the bht weakens dissipates and things get back to around 48-50 ish.

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No just if the topic of US tapering appears press wise again in conjunction with other things at play. Unlikely to actualise in the very short term (actual tapering) given the info we here have access to. But it will happen and you might find that the markets are pricing in the remainder of US tapering more prematurely (now) than if there was no domestic instability. You are all aware on this board that I thought the markets had not fully priced in US tapering yet.

Think of the domestic instability and the ongoing/increasing worries about the Thai economy as a new bridge in terms of big players minds. Fund manager/bank/hot money etc...

Ie. Why wait for the inevitable US tapering - lets just get on an adjust our positions re Thailand as if the tapering is already in action - given the never ending real and present problems It is what I would do.....

Wipe Thailand off the slate for now.....

Edited December 2, 2013 by Ticker2000

[mccw]

Ticker

When you say 60 in event of QE- you mean thai QE? (Never heard of such on the cards. Surely not 60 if UK QE, since that would weaken the pound not the bht. If QE in UK I'd put the rate at more like around 40.

I agree on your other two points. But would add if / when the politics in bkk settles down then the bht weakens dissipates and things get back to around 48-50 ish.

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No just if the topic of US tapering appears press wise again in conjunction with other things at play. Unlikely to actualise in the very short term (actual tapering) given the info  we here have access to. But it will happen and you might find that the markets are pricing in the remainder of  US tapering prematurely (now) than if there was no domestic stability.

 

Think of the domestic instability and the ongoing/increasing worries about the Thai economy as a new bridge in terms of big players minds. 

 

Ie. Why wait for the inevitable tapering - lets just get on an adjust our positions re Thailand as if the tapering is already in action. It is what I would do.....

 

Wipe Thailand off the slate for now..... 

If there was a real recovery/ uptick in demand from the west then this would boost the Thai economy / producer countries. So after this taper rotation out- the next logical flow would be back to Asia again. Profit taking both ways of vourse. Like tides will return, but where the highs and lows are? Around 55 maybe this time then back to 48ish next time. Talking over next couple or so years years here.

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[mccw]

Also if west stumbles then flows back to Asia even sooner. Further increases to QE then bigger the swing.

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[Ticker2000]

I like you think that 55 would be max near term given all - and that is only if 53 is breached (technically) - which will take a big push - as I said feeling less greedy at present.

May start hedging sooner than 55. However the opening at .5 plus of a THB up on Friday seemed market driven and the pull back did not seem that way which leads me to think it was CB interference. If the marks wants it to break 53 it will if not it will not (no matter how the CB interferes - if indeed it is at all) - at least not if there is not another great shift in the macro env from Thailand perspective.

Whats is coming out new wise USA wise soon? as this will bear - have not checked..

All on this board that are really interested on the markets thoughts need to add reuters to the daily searches of Baht....

Edited December 2, 2013 by Ticker2000

[mccw]

I also updated my views that the UK policy is wanting a weaker pound by a few % as they had previously talked about. However looking at the politics now all about the cost of living and energy bills I think its possible/ likely the gov will be happy around this dollar mark and given the good stats I quoted from the pmi they could well consider that things on that side are doing fine as they are. Keep things on an even keep for now n wait and see how things going.

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