BURNING ISSUE

Bangkok poll is critical for the govt and Thaksin

Avudh Panananda

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The March 3 vote will be a litmus test on whether fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will come home or end up in permanent exile.

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Bangkok voters are going to cast their ballots to elect their next governor and their voice will, in turn, send a subtle message on Thaksin's fate.

At Thaksin's intervention, the Pheu Thai bigwigs put their differences aside to rally behind their gubernatorial candidate, Pongsapat Pongcharoen.

In a month of campaigning, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has been very active in swaying votes for Pongsapat as if she were waging a proxy war to fly the Pheu Thai flag in the capital.

She knows her brother Thaksin has a personal stake in the race.

Opposition Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is campaigning hard for the re-election of his fellow Democrat MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, even though the two rarely speak to each other.

As we enter the final two weeks of the race, the Democrats have been mobilising all resources to convince voters that a Pongsapat victory would be tantamount to condoning Thaksin and the political violence that engulfed the capital in 2010.

In other words, the Democrats' campaign strategy, led by Abhisit and Sukhumbhand, has been designed to achieve victory by playing up the sentiment against Thaksin.

Should Sukhumbhand claim victory, the underlying meaning will be that Bangkok residents still hold Thaksin in contempt.

Under this scenario, the central government will face an uphill battle fought under the pretext of amnesty and reconciliation to bring Thaksin home.

Thaksin, Yingluck and their three strategists, Somchai Wongsawat, Phumtham Wechayachai and Suranand Vejjajiva, are fully aware how important the voice of the urban middle class is.

Nationally, Pheu Thai can grab power with or without the Bangkok voters. But it can cling to power only if it remains in good graces with the urban residents.

Yingluck is putting her utmost efforts into securing Pongsapat's victory because she knows the sentiment in the capital is key to the fate of her brother.

Regardless of his victory or defeat, Pongsapat is the proxy used by Thaksin and Yingluck to chart the next move.

Should Pongsapat win, Pheu Thai will heave a sign of relief that Thaksin could and would definitely come home without having to serve his two years in jail. By the same token, the red shirts would enjoy full and unconditional amnesty.

A Democrat defeat would mean the loss of momentum to organise anti-government, anti-Thaksin protests.

Somchai, Phumtham and Suranand have already mapped out plans hinged on varying scenarios.

A clear win for Pongsapat would mean the green light for Pheu Thai to fulfil its agendas for reconciliation, amnesty and rewriting the Constitution.

Somchai is the designated man to push for the new charter once his five-year political ban ends in December.

Chart Thai Pattana Party chief adviser Banharn Silapa-archa will see the end of his ban that same month. And he is poised to lead the reconciliation crusade facilitating Thaksin's homecoming.

In the case of a narrow win or loss for Pongsapat, Pheu Thai would still push for its three agendas, but at a cautious pace.

Under no circumstances will the ruling party put Yingluck's leadership at risk. Each move would be undertaken only after there were no threat of street protests spiralling out of control.

Should Pongsapat suffer a big defeat, Thaksin and Yingluck would have to come up with a new way to appease the urban middle class.

A misjudgement of the sentiment in the capital could spell permanent exile for Thaksin.

-- The Nation 2013-02-19

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Chalerm's accusation! Surely there's no one left on this planet who beliieves anything Chalerm says? The latest video showed him swaying on the streets of Hong Kong. That ear condition causing him to lose balance just won't go away.

And he's still bitter because his boy failed to get elected in the last election.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Do you make this up as you go along, or just wait for instructions from Dubai?

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Do you make this up as you go along, or just wait for instructions from Dubai?

No, all comes from the polls and parliament records.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Giving weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament and taking exit polls serious...

I don't think you are making a strong point.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

And by the same token all exit polls showed the Dems were clear winners in Issan as well.

Your a 'teacher' so here's your lesson for today - Ignore whatever Chalerm says it's highly likely to be a load of old tosh. Lesson over

Edited February 19, 201313 yr by jonclark

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

And by the same token all exit polls showed the Dems were clear winners in Issan as well.

Your a 'teacher' so here's your lesson for today - Ignore whatever Chalerm says it's highly likely to be a load of old tosh. Lesson over

Are you sure? Thai Visa tells me that all Isaan folk are "uneducated oiks" who decended on Bangkok to burn it down and overthrow Abhisit. Are you suggesting that these same folk would be voting Democrat?

Edited February 19, 201313 yr by PREM-R

As we enter the final two weeks of the race, the Democrats have been mobilising all resources to convince voters that a Pongsapat victory would be tantamount to condoning Thaksin and the political violence that engulfed the capital in 2010.

In other words, the Democrats' campaign strategy, led by Abhisit and Sukhumbhand, has been designed to achieve victory by playing up the sentiment against Thaksin.

Well that seems to have backfired spectacularly. A similar last gasp campaign rally held at Rachaprasong, June 2011 had a similar effect. They never learn.

According to the survey, Mr Pongsapat holds a distinct 16.7 point lead over Mr Sukhumbhand, following the Democrat Party's campaign on Red Shirt movement violence, but the public seems to prefer a peaceful atmosphere.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/620327-pongsapat-widens-lead-against-sukhumbhand-in-bangkok-governors-election/#entry6129004

Edited February 19, 201313 yr by muttley

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

You been on holiday.

You certainly pick the winners to side with. Do you also have a problem with your ears requiring massive doses of ear medicine. We know that is one of his problems. He suffers from lack of reality unless he learns it from Dubai.

Perhaps you misunderstood the exit polls that said PT were the winners. The polls you looked at were PT paid enough to win.

If PTP win it will mean the democrats have conducted yet another woeful campaign, learnt no lessons from their election defeat, and have totally missed the fact that people will actually vote for PTP because Yingluck is popular.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

dam_n, you talk some crap. Those same voting irregularities applied equally to the PT campaign.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Those vote counting irregularities are based apon a biased polls that were manipulated by the PTP, as has been clearly indicated.

Edited February 19, 201313 yr by waza

If PTP win it will mean the democrats have conducted yet another woeful campaign, learnt no lessons from their election defeat, and have totally missed the fact that people will actually vote for PTP because Yingluck is popular.

Yingluck is popular with the PTP die hards and Suranand Vejjajiva is working hard to make her popular with the mainstream voter. However she hasnt reached the approval ratings of Abihist during his tenure.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Those vote counting irregularities are based apon a biased polls that were manipulated by the PTP, as has been clearly indicated.

Where? I must have missed that. Care to enlighten me,waza?

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

1. Please share some details to explain your statement.

2. If it was true, how come they didn't rally and go into destruction mode? Or at least demand a recount, or demand that the electoral commission investigate?

If PTP win it will mean the democrats have conducted yet another woeful campaign, learnt no lessons from their election defeat, and have totally missed the fact that people will actually vote for PTP because Yingluck is popular.

Yingluck is popular with the PTP die hards and Suranand Vejjajiva is working hard to make her popular with the mainstream voter. However she hasnt reached the approval ratings of Abihist during his tenure.

waza you sure know how to break the hearts of the Yingluck lovers.

Bangkok voters are going to cast their ballots to elect their next governor and their voice will, in turn, send a subtle message on Thaksin's fate.

Utter nonsense.

They will vote based on either:

- Party affiliation

- Past results/future policies

The Dems don't have much to shout about in terms of results. Bangkok is still a dirty sh**hole.

The winning or losing of this has very little to do with Thaksin. The Nation is becoming rather tiresome in bringing him into everything.

Go Thaksin, GO! Oh wait...

Bangkok Poll Is Critical For The Govt The Amart And Thaksin Abhisit

The NAtion's candidate is getting a beating. The democrats are even losing BKK and suddenly Thaksin is mentioned. If it starts raining tomorrow and the country is drowning it is Thaksin's fault. If there is political unrest the Nation comes up with Thaksin. If a airplane lands on Chiangrai airport it is Thaksin and if Thailand is hit tomorrow by a meteor the Nation will come up with Thaksin too. Just as that other English language newspaper by the way. Two worthless papers biased towards the people, as they are all propped up with old money from the establishment that kept Thailand for too long in the dark ages.

Given the high stakes I wonder how irregular the voting might be in BKK this time.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

Chalerm's accusation! Surely there's no one left on this planet who beliieves anything Chalerm says? The latest video showed him swaying on the streets of Hong Kong. That ear condition causing him to lose balance just won't go away.

And he's still bitter because his boy failed to get elected in the last election.

At least you can believe him when, as DPM in charge of security in the South, he says he has never been there.

A Democrat defeat would certainly give more weight to Chalerm's accusation in parliament of vote counting irregularities in Bangkok during the 2011 general election. All of the exit polls in 2011 showed PT were the clear winners in Bangkok.

If somebody took a PTP bribe and voted otherwise, what would they tell the exit pollster?

The Democrats self destruct urge and Sukhumbhand's selfishness in this election is breath taking. The Democrats should have found someone who can talk to Sukhumbhand to persuade him not to run again a long time ago and he, himself, should have been prepared to accept that he has had his shot at the job with unexciting results as far as Bkk people are concerned, and now it's time to step down gracefully. Instead, he has insisted on standing again, despite his spectacular lack of charisma and aloof patrician attitude and the Dems were unable to do anything about it because he threatened to run as an independent, guaranteeing failure to himself and the party. As it is, the Dems support is already split by Seripisut going for the extreme right wing nationalist head banger Chinese voters in alliance with the PAD.

The election was the Dems to lose and it now looks like there are going to do just that.

Edited February 19, 201313 yr by Arkady

The Democrats self destruct urge and Sukhumbhand's selfishness in this election is breath taking. The Democrats should have found someone who can talk to Sukhumbhand to persuade him not to run again a long time ago and he, himself, should have been prepared to accept that he has had his shot at the job with unexciting results as far as Bkk people are concerned, and now it's time to step down gracefully. Instead, he has insisted on standing again, despite his spectacular lack of charisma and aloof patrician attitude and the Dems were unable to do anything about it because he threatened to run as an independent, guaranteeing failure to himself and the party. As it is, the Dems support is already split by Seripisut going for the extreme right wing nationalist head banger Chinese voters in alliance with the PAD.

The election was the Dems to lose and it now looks like there are going to do just that.

Interesting and I forgive you for any past opinions I have disagreed with in view of your priceless and wonderfully accurate summary of Seripsut's supporters.Sukhumband may not set the world on fire but on anecdotal evidence I think he retains much support among the middle class.Will that be enough? I'm not sure but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he won out in the end.Politics tends to be surprisingly. tribalWeren't opinion polls at the last election predicting a very poor Democrat performance in Bangkok whereas in the event they did quite well?

Some might say your comments about Sukhumband might equally apply to Abhisit, but that's another subject...

The Democrats self destruct urge and Sukhumbhand's selfishness in this election is breath taking. The Democrats should have found someone who can talk to Sukhumbhand to persuade him not to run again a long time ago and he, himself, should have been prepared to accept that he has had his shot at the job with unexciting results as far as Bkk people are concerned, and now it's time to step down gracefully. Instead, he has insisted on standing again, despite his spectacular lack of charisma and aloof patrician attitude and the Dems were unable to do anything about it because he threatened to run as an independent, guaranteeing failure to himself and the party. As it is, the Dems support is already split by Seripisut going for the extreme right wing nationalist head banger Chinese voters in alliance with the PAD.

The election was the Dems to lose and it now looks like there are going to do just that.

Interesting and I forgive you for any past opinions I have disagreed with in view of your priceless and wonderfully accurate summary of Seripsut's supporters.Sukhumband may not set the world on fire but on anecdotal evidence I think he retains much support among the middle class.Will that be enough? I'm not sure but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he won out in the end.Politics tends to be surprisingly. tribalWeren't opinion polls at the last election predicting a very poor Democrat performance in Bangkok whereas in the event they did quite well?

Some might say your comments about Sukhumband might equally apply to Abhisit, but that's another subject...

Interesting and I forgive you for any past opinions I have disagreed with

YOU forgive him because YOU have disagreed with his opinions......whhaooaw. YOU must be very special.

Edited February 19, 201313 yr by Nickymaster