The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed.

[poanoi]

I actually saw a nice room for 3000 on soi kopai,

but agree on the idea its false economy when you start going out to gogo instead of staying home

[metisdead]

Off topic racist rant has been removed as well as a reply.

[arthurwasright]

Denizen, I don't find it particularly 'enlightening' that the other two sectors employ more people than manufacturing : Ford and others wouldn't build highly automated factories if they still had to employ half the province just to get cars out the door ...

Those '21st century' factories are actually in Thailand's favour - without that level of investment, what would stop the corporations moving their production to Vietnam or Bangladesh simply to take advantage of cheaper labour costs ? That is exactly what some of the Chinese companies are doing - abandoning their own labour force in favor of other countries. Interesting times ahead.

Yep....pretty soon we'll all be able to make our own tat

[elliss]

cutting your cloth to suit .

adjust your lifestiles, any tips or advice would be appreciated .

i now do much more walking arund the lakes,

sadly without my dog , mans best friend is in the freezer ,the burgers are quite tasty .

i have a new hobby , polishing apples [plastic ones ]

there are so many things to do , to keep your hands out of your pockets ,

ahh , fond memories.

i would rather be poor in thailand [moody P rating ], than have a triple PPP rating in the uk.

Edited February 28, 2013 by elliss

[Denizen]

cutting your cloth to suit .

adjust your lifestiles, any tips or advice would be appreciated .

i now do much more walking arund the lakes,

sadly without my dog , mans best friend is in the freezer ,the burgers are quite tasty .

i have a new hobby , polishing apples [plastic ones ]

there are so many things to do , to keep your hands out of your pockets ,

ahh , fond memories.

i would rather be poor in thailand [moody P rating ], than have a triple PPP rating in the uk.

The poor have too much competition in UK.

Are plastic apples tasty? Are they cheaper than the genuine article?

Edited February 28, 2013 by Denizen

[SamGio]

This thread as so many others here on TV has taken on a life of its own. Even when dedicating all spare time during a work day I am still exhausted reading all the great insights here...... Keep up the great insights such as freezing your dog or polizing...

Whatever apple you want

[ableguy]

All we have to do is wait for debt level of the government to rise too rapidly ( as it is ) and the baht will lose ground as sure as eggs are eggs, no need to panic.

[Denizen]

All we have to do is wait for debt level of the government to rise too rapidly ( as it is ) and the baht will lose ground as sure as eggs are eggs, no need to panic.

Please sir, can I have some more?

Are you going to pass your advice to your grandchildren so that hope passes to future generations?

[TommoPhysicist]

Speculating on the relative exchange rates for curriencies issued by two banana republics needs a crystal ball, not a financial expert.

[MAJIC]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Some people consider that this has been a deliberate policy - either way, expect more of the same i.e. stronger Baht and declining exchange rates in the future!

I'm expecting a rapidly declining Baht in the near future.

Civil war is usually bad for the exchange rate.

Thailand seems to be the exception to normal rules of finance,if civil war happens it would probably create a massive economic boom!

[bangkokrick]

Denizen, I don't find it particularly 'enlightening' that the other two sectors employ more people than manufacturing : Ford and others wouldn't build highly automated factories if they still had to employ half the province just to get cars out the door ...

Those '21st century' factories are actually in Thailand's favour - without that level of investment, what would stop the corporations moving their production to Vietnam or Bangladesh simply to take advantage of cheaper labour costs ? That is exactly what some of the Chinese companies are doing - abandoning their own labour force in favor of other countries. Interesting times ahead.

The Chinese are abandoning their labour force because many of the labour intensive industries can not get labour. Seems unbelievable when the population is around 1.4 billion, but this is the case.

[Denizen]

Denizen, I don't find it particularly 'enlightening' that the other two sectors employ more people than manufacturing : Ford and others wouldn't build highly automated factories if they still had to employ half the province just to get cars out the door ...

Those '21st century' factories are actually in Thailand's favour - without that level of investment, what would stop the corporations moving their production to Vietnam or Bangladesh simply to take advantage of cheaper labour costs ? That is exactly what some of the Chinese companies are doing - abandoning their own labour force in favor of other countries. Interesting times ahead.

The Chinese are abandoning their labour force because many of the labour intensive industries can not get labour. Seems unbelievable when the population is around 1.4 billion, but this is the case.

There are British expats in Bangkok who could be interested in earning a bob or two. Market inefficiency has prevented the problem and solution being matched.

[Denizen]

This thread as so many others here on TV has taken on a life of its own. Even when dedicating all spare time during a work day I am still exhausted reading all the great insights here...... Keep up the great insights such as freezing your dog or polizing...

Whatever apple you want

If we use more pictures and less words will this relieve your exhaustion?

[griffinz]

_{Great Britain has its problems.but it will get better,i live in rayong work in aberdeen plenty of money im living the dream.built my house great wife,and 4 year old daughter great stuff}

[MrWorldwide]

Of course 'the West' will bounce back, but will it ever be the same as the heady days of the 90s / early noughties ? A better question might be 'should it ever be the same ?'. Deep down, I suspect that many of us knew it was too good to last - and it didn't - but the collusion between government ministers, banks and developers in countries like Ireland was nothing short of criminal.

I don't know what Japan's economy is doing atm, but they have been held up as an example of 'economic stagnation' for well over a decade, yet remain a very rich country. Ironically, along with Taiwan, it's a rich country which now has to stand and watch China buy influence all over SE Asia and the Pacific (obviously Thailand stands to benefit from that investment). Its not just the 'poor' countries - there are pitched battles being waged right here in Oz over the sale of large tracts of agricultural and mining land to the Chinese, complete with allegations of official corruption. And you thought that only happened in Thailand, right ? Money talks, sadly, and we have our own set of scumbags in high places. Kind of makes my preaching about Ireland seem a tad hollow.

Interesting times ahead.

[metisdead]

Off topic nonsense posts have been removed as well as the replies.

[carmine]

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand’s Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

This would seem to make sense, that the strengthening baht would spell doom for western tourism. Yet, as you say, even though most western currencies have lost substantial value (the dollar alone has dropped over 25% within the last 6 to 7 years), tourism continues to churn along at a good clip. This boggles my mind as we know the western economies are largely in the toilet. Australia is doing well, but they only account for a small number of total western tourism. So what's going on? I would guess many westerners still believe Thai tourism to be a good value. I'd imagine the trend will continue.

But I do agree that long term expats on a fixed budget will be hit hard. So what's the future for that market? Mass exodus to Cambodia or perhaps Myanmar? I don't think the Thai government will be overly concerned about that demographic, especially since more well-heeled westerners will probably come in to replace them. Certainly a topic worth speculating about, but no definitive answers for sure.

Its the bucket loads of russian and chinese tourists that are propping up the tourist industry here. and they have money to spend. Western european tourist is being hit hard for obvious reasons. Even the europeans that do still travel here don't spend anything like they used to.

With regards to existing expats, i think they will continue leaving in droves for the reasons stated. Its just the way of the world. There are also many, myself included, that have been waiting in vain for their currency of origin to start to strengthen against the baht and that looks a very forlorn hope. The result of this being the likes of myself being unfortunately forced to find a country where my money is worth more because theres no way i'm exchanging a sizeable sum at 45 baht to the pound.

I have no complaints because i had at one time every oppotunity to change the whole lot up at 80 to the pound and i wouldn't now be giving any economy the slightest show of interest. I have a relatively successful business here so i have no urgency to leave but when the day comes when i want to stop earning baht i'll have to review. Ces't la vie!!

[agogohome]

The GBP to Baht exchange rate was 36-37 for more than 20 years (25 to US$). All it's doing now is heading back where it was before the financial crash of 97.

[agogohome]

All we have to do is wait for debt level of the government to rise too rapidly ( as it is ) and the baht will lose ground as sure as eggs are eggs, no need to panic.

You're joking of course, arn't you? Debt? What debt, the Thai Government have so much spare cash they hardly know what to do with it. Loans from other countries are already being paid back early.

[Denizen]

All we have to do is wait for debt level of the government to rise too rapidly ( as it is ) and the baht will lose ground as sure as eggs are eggs, no need to panic.

You're joking of course, arn't you? Debt? What debt, the Thai Government have so much spare cash they hardly know what to do with it. Loans from other countries are already being paid back early.

Looks to me like Thai government debt is trending down. Maybe ableguy can get his hopes passed onto the descendants of his great grandchildren.

The 2010 increase was probably caused by the red shirt insurrection.

Edited March 1, 2013 by Denizen

[Jimi007]

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

I think I responded to your post way back. But I just looked at a chart. If you think it's at a ten year high, look here:

[lookingeast]

>Much gloom and doom ahead for a large number of farangs here.

Simple answer:

If the Euro goes South (beyond 30THB) I will go West.

I still have a safe house there, question of not burning my bridges, no need to attend university to be that smart.

Bye bye Thailand (had excellent 11 years so far, but still bye bye )

Just keep thinking positive: And think about how much money you are now saving on heating while you stay in Thailand.

And spending on air-con...

[homeownership]

All we have to do is wait for debt level of the government to rise too rapidly ( as it is ) and the baht will lose ground as sure as eggs are eggs, no need to panic.

You're joking of course, arn't you? Debt? What debt, the Thai Government have so much spare cash they hardly know what to do with it. Loans from other countries are already being paid back early.

Looks to me like Thai government debt is trending down. Maybe ableguy can get his hopes passed onto the descendants of his great grandchildren.

The 2010 increase was probably caused by the red shirt insurrection.

Since when do you measure a countries economic viability by its debt.

No you measure it by it ability to repay the debt and that is being inflated away since 2010 showing a decline in debt ratios but also putting up prices.

What is the next step that every government will do in this case.

DEVALUE DEVALUE DEVALUE THE BHAT !!!!

[MrWorldwide]

Speculators will decide the fate of the baht. Comforting thought, isnt it ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market#Market_participants

The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank.^[63] Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse, and in more recent times in Asia.

[chiangmaikelly]

Speculators will decide the fate of the baht. Comforting thought, isnt it ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market#Market_participants

The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank.^[63] Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 European Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse, and in more recent times in Asia.

Like Switzerland eh?

Edited March 2, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[MrWorldwide]

Dont know about Swizerland, but it would seem that my copy-and-paste skills are failing me, Meant to grab this gem :

Hedge funds as speculators

About 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

[chiangmaikelly]

Dont know about Swizerland, but it would seem that my copy-and-paste skills are failing me, Meant to grab this gem :

Hedge funds as speculators

About 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

Switzerland beat the speculators, I know because I was one who got beat. So never say never as the combined resources of the market did not overwhelm the Swiss.

[dec]

fallen below 45 now and i thought i got a bad deal at 47 last month ....this along with dire interest rates makes a pretty depressing scenario... guys on a pension must really be feeling the pinch especially if they moved here 5-6 years ago when the rate was a heady 65-70

[kennedy]

If you guys keep it up, there will be a rash of Brit balcony jumpers. If they have a balcony to jump off. I guess they can run out in front of a bus.