Anti-thaksin Rally Sunday March 5 - The Final Show

thedude · March 8, 2006

There's been very little news on capital market reaction to anti-Taksin protests, that's why no one could reply to that question about baht strength. Overall, it seems, investors realise that there's very little chance of the situation escalating into bloodshed or mass arrests, like in Philipines, so they don't worry too much in the short term.
One thing is clear - Thailand is far more mature country now than it was twenty years ago, and far ahead of bedlam that the Philipines is now.

i haven't been watching the baht, but i understand the thai baht is pretty insignificant within the currency market and baht movement is usually related to yen movements and generally in line with regional currencies, external factors. internally, bank credit conditions remain strong and so is the reserve situation. it doesn't appear to be panic stations yet. investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude for new investments, which is not that same as waiting to pull out funds. unless of course thailand's credit ratings get downgraded due to political risk. the BOT meanwhile continues to pull the brakes on inflation, so it seems even the central bank is not unduly alarmed, for now. or perhaps they are just putting on a brave front.

having said that, a bloomberg report (reproduced below) has starting to put thailand in the same basket as philippines and other countries where politics remain volatile. something that concerns me. its always a danger that foreign investors don't have the time or inclination to really work out the subtleties of this market vs others, political turmoil is political turmoil, and it serves to undermine investor confidence and ultimately limit growth of this market going forward.

Asian Politics Trump Economics, Deal Wild Cards: William Pesek

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Anyone mulling the outlook for Asia can disregard the pile of data published by governments. Forget analysts' predictions. Ignore stock prices and bond yields. More luck will be had looking out the window.

It's there, on the streets below, where observers are getting more accurate indications that all is not well in the region. The thousands taking to the streets of Manila and Bangkok are reminding leaders and investors that Asia's rapid growth is masking cracks in economies and political systems.

Far from being just domestic stories, events in the Philippines and Thailand are reminders of how geopolitics in Asia are trumping economics, and will continue to do just that.

In the Philippines, for example, serially embattled President Gloria Arroyo declared a state of emergency on Feb. 24, saying a group of military officials and civilians planned to oust her. Reporters rushed to call debt-rating companies to see if they planned a change in the country's credit rating. So far, no downgrades seem afoot, but stay tuned.

In Thailand, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was forced to dissolve parliament and announce a snap election for April 2. Amid rising calls for his resignation, Thaksin, who has displayed authoritarian tendencies at times, is under pressure to make political and constitutional changes and avoid a national crisis.

Politics Eclipse GDP

What makes both episodes so troubling is that until recently, the Philippines and Thailand were thought to be on the right track, albeit to varying degrees. What's more, the predicaments of both leaders offer reminders that concerns about the cronyism and corruption of Asia's past haven't gone away.

After Thailand's rebound from the 1997 Asian crisis, leaders throughout the region talked about emulating Thaksin's economic and political models. His overwhelming victory in last year's elections only strengthened the 56-year-old's grip on power.

Opponents attacking Thaksin over media freedom, ministerial ethics, education reforms, planned sales of shares in public utilities, and the handling of Muslim unrest got little traction.

That was until a business deal last month shone a spotlight on one of Asia's richest men, one who also runs the region's eighth-biggest economy. Thaksin's family sold a stake in Bangkok- based telecommunications company Shin Corp. to Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte, netting a tax-free $1.9 billion.

Asia's Berlusconi

Suddenly, those arguing for years that Thaksin, a self-made, larger-than-life billionaire, was Asia's answer to Silvio Berlusconi had lots of company. Berlusconi is a tycoon who leveraged his business success to become prime minister of Italy. Thaksin, like Berlusconi, has been accused of using public office to advance his private interests.

Arroyo's problems are more about legitimacy. Even before charges of bid-rigging in last year's election, Arroyo, 58, faced questions about whether she's the rightful occupant of the nation's top office. She came to power in 2001 after the impeachment of actor-turned-politician Joseph Estrada. He still claims to be president.

After barely winning last year's contest, Arroyo was tripped up by telephone recordings in which she allegedly conspired with election officials to tilt the vote her way. On top of that were allegations of her husband's and son's involvement in illegal gambling.

Arroyo's Debt Woes

After the coup rumors and Arroyo's actions, the Philippines rejected all bids for Treasury bills at yesterday's auction as investors demanded higher yields. ``The market has been spooked by these events,'' National Treasurer Omar Cruz said.

The moral of both stories, of course, is that creating credible government policies, reducing corruption and strengthening the legal system are works in progress. They are also a reminder that investors in Asia need to keep a wary eye on political events.

When you consider the biggest surprises in Asian markets in recent years, most came from politics, not gross domestic product, inflation or stock prices. Expect more of the same as the year unfolds.

For example, markets were shocked in May 2004, when a pro- market Indian government was tossed from power, even as GDP growth was strong. Poor voters who didn't feel they were part of the nation's boom favored new leaders. It was a cautionary tale for many Asian politicians.

Geopolitical Minefield

In China, the number of protests involving more than 100 people rose to 87,000 last year from 74,000 in 2004, according to the government. (The number is probably much higher.) Investors may be surprised at how much trouble anger over pollution, water shortages, stingy welfare programs and the growing gap between rich and poor causes the Communist Party this year.

Tensions between Taiwan and China are another wild card. So is the high price of crude oil, especially if events in the Middle East worsen. And never rule out North Korea as a source of instability in markets.

Finally, China, Japan and Korea are barely on speaking terms because of disagreements over World War II. That doesn't help alleviate the risks associated with high commodity prices, avian influenza, terrorism and disputes over energy-rich islands. Also, Japan will have a new leader after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi steps down in September.

Asia's booming economies are high on investors' lists of favored destinations. Political turmoil is a bigger risk than many seem to realize. It may help to pay more attention to the buzz on Asia's streets than to statistics.

To contact the writer of this column:

William Pesek Jr. in Tokyo at [email protected]

ColPyat · March 8, 2006

having said that, a bloomberg report (reproduced below) has starting to put thailand in the same basket as philippines and other countries where politics remain volatile. something that concerns me. its always a danger that foreign investors don't have the time or inclination to really work out the subtleties of this market vs others, political turmoil is political turmoil, and it serves to undermine investor confidence and ultimately limit growth of this market going forward.

Finally a report that somehow points in the right direction.

The last years i was rather baffled by the positive outlook of investors towards Asia, especially Thailand and China. It is nice to read that an analyst has the balls to accept that Asia is not just made up of rosy statistics, but that social and political factors are at least as important to see in order to get a more complete picture.

IMHO there was no "rebound" from the '97 crises, only a temporary containment of the damage without leaders having done much to solve the underlying social inequalities that led to the financial crises. What we here in Thailand experience right now is nothing but a delayed continuation of the crises. And there will be far more to come in the future before these countries start maturing.

Jai Dee · March 8, 2006

Gen. Surayut urges every party to consider the benefits of the country

Privy Councilor Surayuth Chulanond(สุรยุทธ จุลานนท์) has warned every party to think of Thailand’s benefits as he is concerned about the current political mire. He said the tension can be eased if a discussion will be held.

Gen. Surayuth talked about the current political conflicts. He said all parties are adults and they should consider resolving their conflicts. He said all the parties should come forward and conduct a discussion in order to end this political crisis.

Gen. Surayuth also had the headlights of his vehicle on as a sign of reconciliation as suggested by Royal Thai Police Spokesperson Achirawit Suphannaphaysat (อชิรวิทย์ สุพรรณเภสัช).

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 08 March 2006

lung · March 8, 2006

Protesters rally at AIS head office

Some 30 protesters deployed by the People's Alliance for Democracy rallied at the head office of Advanced Info Service Wednesday afternoon and destroyed some SIM cards of the mobile phone operators.

The group turned up at Shinawatra 3 Building at 3 pm. Some 30 policemen were deployed to keep law and order.

The building houses the head office of AIS and iTV, both are subsidiaries of Shin Corp, which has been taken over by Temasek Holdings of Singapore.

The protesters were led by Saree Ongsomwang, secretary-general of the Foundation for Consumers.

Saree read an open letter that the PAD would launch campaigns for the people to boycott goods and services under Shin Corp group until Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would agree to resign.

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source=the NATION 8.3.2006

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britmaveric · March 8, 2006

Protesters rally at AIS head office

Some 30 protesters deployed by the People's Alliance for Democracy rallied at the head office of Advanced Info Service Wednesday afternoon and destroyed some SIM cards of the mobile phone operators.

The group turned up at Shinawatra 3 Building at 3 pm. Some 30 policemen were deployed to keep law and order.

The building houses the head office of AIS and iTV, both are subsidiaries of Shin Corp, which has been taken over by Temasek Holdings of Singapore.

The protesters were led by Saree Ongsomwang, secretary-general of the Foundation for Consumers.

Saree read an open letter that the PAD would launch campaigns for the people to boycott goods and services under Shin Corp group until Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would agree to resign.

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source=the NATION 8.3.2006

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Only 30?

jdinasia · March 8, 2006

From the Phuket Gazette

PHUKET CITY: More than 10,000 people attended a Democrat Party rally held at Saphan Hin on Sunday as part of the party’s “Southern Mobile Tour”.

Many held up signs protesting against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s perceived heavy-handed political and financial tactics. “We don’t want to be Thaksin’s washing powder!” read one. Another stated, “We don’t want to be Thaksin’s shoes!” while a third announced, “Phuket people are anti-Thaksin! We want our country back!”

The Democrats held the rally to explain to voters why the party had decided to boycott the snap parliamentary elections, due April 2, and also to explain why they felt it was wrong for PM Thaksin to have dissolved Parliament.

Suthep Tueksuban, Secretary of the Democrat Party, first to speak at the rally, said that PM Thaksin had accused the Democrat Party of being alone in opposing him. But, K. Suthep pointed out, many other factions were against the idea of PM Thaksin remaining in power. The PM was driving the country to ruin, he added.

He said that the Democrats had decided to boycott the election because they did not want to be part of PM Thaksin’s “…plan to cover up for himself and his mistakes”.

“Do not think that because the Democrat Party is not taking part in the election that we are not there for the public. We are still your representatives in the fight against the Thaksin regime and in the struggle to return true democracy to Thailand,” he said.

“If there is still is an election on April 2, I would like to ask Phuket people to put a cross in the last box [in the ballot papers], the one that says, ‘I don’t want to vote for anybody’. And we will see how many Thai people don’t want Thaksin to be Prime Minister anymore,” he said.

Sathit Wongnongtei, a member of the Democrat Party Managing Committee, claimed that PM Thaksin always looked down on Thai people and did not give them credit for being able to think for themselves.

Other speakers were Dr Trirong Su######ee and Dr Surin Pitsuwan, both deputy leaders of the party. They, too, urged locals to struggle against the Thaksin regime.

Abhisit Vejjajiva, Chairman of the Democrats, did not attend the rally.

sriracha john · March 8, 2006

I'd be very interested in the source of this "anonymous" information...

The statements are not only anonymous but libelous as well. I wonder who else may ask the same question? Seems to differ greatly from the Wikipedia account.

which differs greatly from Thaksin's own version of his biography in 1998.......

his version is as outlandish as the Walter Mitty's CIA version...

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Laborers threaten to join Tuesday's rally if government does not agree to payrise demand

The network of labor Unions for Democracy plans to demonstrate to demand a pay raise, insisting that they will join the major rally on March 14 if the government fails to respond.

President of the Network, Somyos Prueksakasemsuk (สมยศ พฤกษาเกษมสุข) said yesterday that about 1,000 members will gather at the Democracy monument before marching to meet Labor Minister Somsak Tepsutin (สมศักดิ์ เทพสุทิน), asking Mr. Somsak about the minimum wage increase to 200 baht per day. In addition, the network will demand that the government cancel the Labor Protection Act drafted by the government, as the Act does not meet the Network’s wishes. The government will also be asked to consider the draft proposed by the group.

In addition, the group said that if the meeting of the Central Wage Committee on March 9 does not yield satisfactory results, the group will join the rally organized by the People’s Alliance for Democracy on March 14, to pressure the prime minister to resign.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 08 March 2006

At least we have one group that honestly admits why they want the PM out - for their own personal gain.

They are just following the fearless leader's own philosophy for self-enrichment.

They problably feel they should be rewarded for being such staunch advocates of his own policy.

============================================================

Nearly 100 firms face boycott in drive to oust Thai PM

BANGKOK (AFP) - Thai protesters threatened to boycott nearly 100 companies and products linked to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, racheting up the pressure for him to resign.

The boycott list includes several top international brands, such as Toyota, Heineken, Nescafe and Seven-Eleven.

"We will see to it that Thai people don't drink Nescafe coffee or buy goods at Seven-Eleven convenience stores," said Parnthep Puurpongpan, a spokesman for the anti-Thaksin coalition that has led weekly protests in Bangkok.

The boycott would begin Thursday if Singapore state-linked investment firm Temasek completes its purchase of Shin Corp, the telecom giant founded by Thaksin, Parnthep said.

The list includes dozens of companies with links to Thaksin's business empire, to his party or to Temasek.

"A boycott is the general right of the Thai public to protest against Shin Corp's sale to Temasek," Parnthep said.

The People's Alliance for Democracy released a list of nearly 100 boycott targets, including Thailand's largest mobile phone operator, two international airlines and two banks.

Among Shin Corp's companies are Thailand's biggest mobile phone operator Advance Info Service (AIS), discount carrier Air Asia, Internet provider CS Lox Info, and iTV television station.

Temasek's varied interests include banks DBS, Thai Danu Bank and UOB, the Hard Rock Cafe franchise, Tiger Beer and Heineken, and Singapore Airlines.

Billionaire Thaksin counts many top businessmen among his party's members and supporters, including people with ties to Toyota, Nescafe and Seven-Eleven -- putting all those firms on the protesters' list as well.

The latest threat from the protesters came as they ready for their next major rally Monday night, to be followed early Tuesday by a march on Government House during Thaksin's cabinet meeting.

The head of the Senate foreign affairs committee, Kraisak Choonhavan, also wrote to Singaporean leaders Wednesday, saying the protests could damage relations and urging them to "clarify" allegations of wrongdoing in the Shin Corp sale.

The Securities and Exchange Commission late Wednesday denied allegations it had altered or withheld documents related to its investigation of the Shin Corp sale.

"The allegation is aimed to discredit the SEC even though we have done everything with transparency," assistant secretary general Prasong Vinaiphat said in a statement.

The protesters got a major boost this week when the nation's biggest union vowed to mobilize 100,000 workers to join them.

Unions representing Thailand's 42 state enterprises are set to meet Thursday on whether to join the protest, but divisions have begun to emerge. A group of railway workers said they want to remain neutral in the political crisis.

Adding to the pressure on Thaksin, the army chief warned that the ongoing political upheaval could unsettle revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

"The King may be upset because he knows that we are having these problems in the country," General Sonthi Boonyaratglin said.

"It's time for (all Thais) to help each other to end this situation."

Scores of prominent politicians and academics have petitioned the 78-year-old king -- who this year celebrates the 60th anniversary of his coronation -- to appoint an interim prime minister as a way out of the crisis.

Thaksin has dissolved parliament and called snap elections for April 2 in hopes of ending the crisis, but opposition parties are boycotting the polls, casting doubt on the vote's legitimacy.

The premier spent Wednesday campaigning in eastern Thailand to urge voters to cast ballots but some 200 protesters blocked him in the town of Sakaew.

The protesters waved placards and shouted "Thaksin, get out!" as he arrived for a meeting with local officials.

About 200 supporters also demonstrated, but police kept the rival groups apart and cleared the way for Thaksin to enter.

03/08/2006 08:08

Edited March 8, 2006 by sriracha john

sriracha john · March 8, 2006

bulmercke · March 8, 2006

TAKEOVER DOUBTS

Price of Shin stocks plunge - The Nation -

Investors fear Temasek tender offer for PM's family conglomerate may collapse; shares down 8%, Bt5 below tender offer

The price of Shin Corp stocks collapsed yesterday, a day before the tender offer linked to Temasek Holdings' controversial takeover is due to be completed.

Shin shares fell to Bt44 - a far cry from the public tender price of Bt49.25 - on investors' nervousness about uncertainty over the outcome of the deal.

The Shin Corp price plunged to Bt42 before rebounding to Bt44, a sharp fall of 8 per cent from its close on Tuesday. The SET index also tumbled by almost 2 per cent yesterday to end at 723.86 over growing concern about the political turmoil.

Kiatnakin Securities' assistant vice president Wiriya Lappromrat-tana blamed the sharp fall in stock prices on investors' mounting concern over local protesters' demand for Temasek - Singapore's state investment agency - to pull out of the Shin deal.

"Although tomorrow [Thursday] is the last day for the tender offer, those who have yet to proceed with the tender-offer process, which would take more than one day, rushed to unload the Shin Corp shares on panic selling. They are also concerned about the uncertainty of the deal," she said.

Local activist groups that are part of the People's Alliance for Democracy have called on the Singapore government to halt the Temasek takeover - or face a boycott of Shin products and services. They have condemned the deal as a sell-off of state assets by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his family.

A group of about 20 protesters, led by Prathin Vekhawatayanont, rallied yesterday in front of the Singapore Embassy amid tight security from police, calling for Temasek to pull out of the deal.

And today Somsak Kosaisuk, a key member of the People's Alliance for Democracy, will head to the Singapore Embassy to get an official response from the Singapore government. They then plan to stage a protest in front of the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Saree Ongsomwang, secretary-general of the Foundation for Consumers' Protection, said yesterday: "We expect to get a response from the Singapore ambassador on the Shin Corp deal tomorrow. We hope that we'll get their cooperation because we have informed them that the businesses of Shin Corp do not belong to the prime minister's family but are also public assets of Thailand.

"If Singapore fails to respond to our request, we will go ahead and boycott all services or products of any businesses in which Singaporean companies own more than 25 per cent of the stocks."

Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings, controlled by Temasek Holdings, are due to complete their joint public tender for all shares of Shin Corp today in Thailand's largest takeover deal ever, which values Shin Corp at about Bt150 billion.

The cheques for the tender will be handed out on Tuesday. However, rallies calling for Thaksin to resign have had a spill-over effect on the Shin Corp deal, causing panic among retail investors that the takeover might fall through.

"I'm quite stressed now since I'm not sure whether Temasek will cancel the tender offer or not after all the anti-Thaksin rallies and a threat of a boycott of all Shin Corp services," said one retail investor, who holds a chunk of the Shin stocks. She did not want to be named.

"I always make a wish that nothing happens until the close of a tender offer. I know some people may think I'm quite selfish, but what would they do if they were in my situation? My friends have advised me to keep cool because I cannot do anything," she added.

"To be fair, if the protesters ask Temasek to drop the deal, they should also ask Temasek to cancel the deal with the Shinawatra and Damapong families. However, I'm not sure whether Temasek has this agreement or not. Otherwise, only minor shareholders will feel the pain," she said.

Saree, of the Foundation for Consumers' Protection, led a group of 30 protesters calling for a boycott in a protest staged outside the Shinawatra 3 Building, where Advanced Info Service, ITV and the Thai Rak Thai Party have their offices. The group read out a statement calling for Thaksin to resign unconditionally because of his abuse of power. They vowed to boycott all Shin Corp's related services - from AIS, SC Asset, CS Loxinfo, Capital OK and SC Matchbox to Howcome Entertainment.

The group also applied pressure on the Charoen Pokphand Group, Suriya Jungrungreankit's Summit Group, the Mahakitsiri Group, the Maleenont Group and Dr Surapong Suebwonglee - to withdraw their support of the prime minister - or it would campaign for a boycott of their businesses.

Saree broke an AIS mobile-phone sim card as a symbolic protest. Her group plans to hand out 100,000 copies of a manual about the boycott of products and services related to or owned by people who support Thaksin. The manual will be distributed nationwide today if Singapore fails to quit the Shin deal.

Finance Reporters

The Nation

sriracha john · March 8, 2006

Shocking news #1...

Thai Rak Thai would legalise businessmen-ministers

(TNA) – The constitution should be amended to allow the prime minister and other cabinet members to hold shares while in office, according to ruling Thai Rak Thai party deputy leader Bhokin Bhalakula.

The former House of Representatives speaker said the party was now drafting a constitutional amendment to this end.

Mr Bhokin argued that the prohibition on share ownership was so "unfair" it had forced caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to transfer his Shin Corp stocks to his children.

A scandal over the recent tax-free sale of those shares has fuelled popular opposition to the prime minister and led to growing calls for him to step down.

Mr Bhokin said under the proposed amendment, politicians would be allowed to hold stocks without the need to transfer them to family members or to anyone else.

The deputy TRT leader said a constitutional amendment body would oversee the process. It was proposed to include of representatives of various independent agencies, university academics, judges and former members of the now defunct Constitution Drafting Committee.

It remains to be seen if MPs and senators would also sit on the new constitutional review panel, Mr. Bhokin said.

Shocking news #2

Under other suggested constitutional changes, the Election Commission could be stripped of its power to warn or disqualify candidates accused of election rigging or vote-buying because such decisions may instead be made by an Election Court.

The basis of Election Commission decisions may also be changed, with a switch to a simple majority of votes among the five members of the polling agency, instead of the unanimous vote currently required, Mr. Bhokin added.

penzman · March 8, 2006

sriracha john · March 8, 2006

In the run-up to the supposedly "fair" election on April 2nd, some serious hanky panky is going on. It's precisely what I expected once TRT figured out that the boycott is an effective tool to nullify this supposedly fair election and the way they can get around it:

Thaikorn Polsuwan, coordinator of Isaan's Struggle for the Country's Independence, said yesterday he has evidence that a large party gave money to candidates of small parties to run in constituencies where its candidate running alone may not get the minimum 20 per cent of eligible votes required to be elected.

In constituencies that are contested, the winners just need to beat their opponents, and don't need to get 20 per cent of the eligible votes.

Thaikorn said his group sent two people acting as MP candidates to a meeting at the Kanmani Hotel on Pradiphat Road in Bangkok. Representatives of the "large party" (love this typical Thai style) gave each person in attendance Bt20,000 on the spot and said they would pay Bt100,000 after they apply to be candidates.

Two senior provincial EC officials helped the large party by falsifying the applications of the candidates so they could qualify, such as their academic records, party membership terms, legal domicile and voting history, he said.

"This election collusion took place from March 4-7 in every province across the country, especially in the South where the large party was concerned that it may fail to get 20 per cent of eligible votes

in constituencies that it fields candidates without competition,'' Thaikorn said.

He said he planned to file a complaint with the Election Commission. And if the parties were proven guilty, they could be subject to dissolution.

In Nakhon Si Thammarat, 40 candidates from small parties showed up to register at the same time, making it look like they were part of the plan, he said.

The EC should check the registration of the small parties to see if each has the signatures of its leader to indicate when the candidates became members of the party, he said.

The People's Network for Elections (PNET) also said small political parties were offered financial support to field MP candidates in constituencies where the large party may not get enough support.

Prapot Srithet, chairman of PNET's lower northern region, said the election watchdog has received complaints that leaders of small parties were offered Bt1 million in some constituencies where voters are expected to abstain. Although PNET has decided against formally taking part in monitoring the snap election, it has been observing the situation.

Pichet Phanwichatkul led other members of the Democrat Party executive board to file a complaint with the Election Commission against some MP candidates of small parties. The Democrats said the candidates were not actually party members but had documents to certify that they belonged to the party for more than 90 days.

He found it strange that many candidates of Thai Chuay Thai Party had applied to become party members on the same day, May 10 of last year. He urged the EC to investigate if they had faked their documents.

Pichet said the large party was struggling to find people to run against its candidates. "They unknowingly contacted even Democrats, saying you don't need to worry about paperwork as they would handle it for you. We don't want to see this new Parliament turn into a joke,'' he said.

Prapot also questioned if Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's pledge to a local leader that the government would boost funding for the SML project from Bt200,000 to Bt250,00 for each village was a violation of the election law.

Thaksin was on the campaign trail in the East, where he inspected implementation of an SML (Small, Medium and Large) village fund project in Nakhon Nayok.

- TN

09/03/06

lung · March 8, 2006

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source -the nation 9.3.2006

ANALYSIS

March 14: a big day for many reasons

Thaksin has been resorting to all kinds of delaying tactics to hang on to his premiership, albeit in a caretaker role, probably to make sure that the Shin Corp takeover does not collapse.

All eyes are now focused on April 2, as people bet on whether the snap election will be held or not. But before that, March 14 is another watershed date to watch out for.

On that day, shareholders of Shin Corp, who have expressed a commitment to sell their stocks through a public tender offer, will get their cheques from Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings, both subsidiaries of Temasek Holdings of Singapore.

One financial source has said that Temasek received an assurance from Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra that he would see through the public tender for 100 per cent of Shin Corp stocks.

This is probably a key reason why Thaksin has been resorting to all kinds of delaying tactics to hang on to his premiership, albeit in a caretaker role - to make sure that the Shin Corp takeover does not collapse.

Today is the last day of the tender offer for Shin stocks (Bt49.25 a share), which has been going on since March 2. In the tender document, Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings have made it clear that they have the right to alter the terms of the tender offer if there are any unexpected events that adversely affect the status or the assets of Shin Corp. The deadline for this clause is 4.30pm, after which Cedar Holdings and Aspen Holdings will not be able to alter the tender-offer terms.

Investors, however, have been quite nervous over the Shin Corp deal, given the shaky status of the caretaker prime minister and the growing anti-Singapore sentiment in Thailand. Activists attached to the People's Alliance for Democracy, campaigning for the unconditional resignation of Thaksin, have already submitted letters to the Singapore Embassy calling for Temasek to pull out of the Shin Corp deal. They have threatened to rally for a boycott of Shin Corp services and other businesses owned by Singaporean firms if Temasek insists on going ahead with the takeover.

Shin Corp stocks have collapsed to Bt44, a far cry from the tender offer price of Bt49.25, reflecting investors' nervousness as to whe-ther the tender offer will succeed.

Sondhi Limthongkul, a key member of the People's Alliance for Democracy, has also set March 14 as the day when anti-PM protesters will march all the way from Sanam Luang to confront the prime minister at Government House. There, he and his coalition partners will submit a letter to the prime minister, applying further pressure on him to resign from politics unconditionally.

Sondhi must have also sensed the critical timing of March 14, when Thaksin no longer has any obligations to Temasek over the Shin Corp tender offer. Yet Sondhi got it slightly wrong when he said that Thaksin had refused to step down from office because his family wanted to wait until it received full payment of Bt73.3 billion from Temasek for the sale of its 49-per-cent stake.

There are two parts of the Shin Corp deal. First, Temasek bought 1.4 billion shares, or 49 per cent, from the Shinawatra and Damapong families for Bt73.3 billion. The transactions of this buyout were conducted on January 23 through six brokers. Full money has been paid out to the Shinawatra and Damapong families, who have deposited the cash at Siam Commercial Bank, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank, Thai Military Bank and others.

The head of one financial institution said nobody - except the Shinawatra family and Temasek - really knows whether there is any buyback agreement between the Shinawatra family and Temasek in the event of unpredictable events that could pose a significantly adverse threat to the status or assets of Shin. But, the source said, the Shinawatra family would prefer to hold on to the cash and a buyback was virtually unthinkable.

The second part of the Temasek's buyout is a mandatory tender offer for the remaining 51 per cent of Shin from other shareholders. Temasek could have to dish out another US$1.8 billion (Bt70.6 billion) for the remaining shares. This part of the takeover closes today, with payment due to be made on Tuesday (March 14).

If the tender offer ends well by March 14, then Thaksin will no longer have any obligation to remain in office amid mounting pressure for him to resign. He can't weather the political storm ahead without backing off because the country is enduring a political crisis of enormous magnitude with a bitter divide among the populace and various institutions.

The country's three most powerful private sector organisations - the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Bankers' Association and the Board of Trade of Thailand - have failed so far to issue a clear joint position about the current political paralysis. Their views will carry significant weight in determining the outcome of the crisis, but they have preferred to take a wait-and-see attitude, not wanting to exacerbate Thaksin's predicament.

Earlier, Board of Trade chairman Pramon Sutheevong said the three private-sector organisations would convene and come up with their joint position on March 14. This is no coincidence because the private sector organisations must also realise the importance of this date.

But yesterday the three private sector organisations had an abrupt change of mind. FTI vice chairman Somphong Tancharoenphol said the three organisations would postpone its meeting on Tuesday due to the uncertain political situation.

There is a possibility that Thaksin will be advised by his team to step down from office by March 14 too, so that the political deadlock is resolved, paving the way for national reconciliation. But whether Thaksin will listen to this advice or not remains to be seen. So far he has proved to be very recalcitrant. And Thai politics now is as unpredictable as ever.

Thanong Khanthong

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TAKEOVER DOUBTS

Price of Shin stocks plunge