Violent Response Suggests Peace Deal Was Too Hasty

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL
Violent response suggests peace deal was too hasty
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Senior govt officials should have known the insurgents are split into many groups

It didn't take long before the insurgents on the ground in the far South responded to the recent so-called historic breakthrough deal between the Thai government and the self-proclaimed leaders of Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C) aimed at setting up a peace process.

Within 24 hours of the signing ceremony Narathiwat was rocked by two bombs. One of the bombs went off within a safety perimeter dubbed a green zone.

The first bomb went off at around 5am on March 1. About 5kg of explosives were hidden in a motorcycle parked near the main market in Muang municipality. Six people were injured and one vehicle and six motorcycles were damaged.

The grey Honda Dream motorcycle that carried the explosives was reportedly stolen on December 1 last year. Military ordnance personnel said later that the bomb was detonated by a digital wristwatch instead of a mobile phone that is regularly used, as this motorcycle was parked behind a military vehicle operating a mobile-phone signal jamming device.

The second bomb went off around noon, when 50kg of explosives packed in a green Isuzu pickup parked in front of the command post of the provincial police force blew up.

There were no casualties but nearby shophouses and a car were damaged. The green Isuzu pickup was not on a five-car watch list and was different from two other vehicles which the authorities had issued a warning about earlier.

The following day on Saturday, a motorbike bomb killed two Paramilitary Rangers and critically wounded three others as they were driving through Yala. Locals also talked about a gunfight early in the day near the New Market community.

Senior government officials were hard pressed to explain these incidents. But no matter how hard they tried, they did not have the gumption to admit that the recent so-called breakthrough may have been hastily carried out - or not a breakthrough at all.

It was hastily carried out because the government did not have a buy-in from the military, while all the intelligence agencies could not agree on how cutting a deal with Hasan Thoyib could affect the course of violence on the ground.

Senior government figures should have known that there is no unity among the separatist movements and that any demands these so-called leaders may want to make would first need to be verified to show that they have command-and-control over what is occurring on the ground.

Just as important is the fact that there is no unity on the Thai side, especially between the government and the army.

Moreover, it is a bit ironic for a group of old men to claim to represent a people - the Malay Muslims of Thailand's Deep South - and yet, nobody seems to know them.

This begs the question as to why the government and the National Security Council (NSC) went ahead and signed this deal with Hasan Thoyib. Perhaps political needs outweighed national security.

Some political and security insiders billed the deal as a big leap of faith. But, the problem is the ongoing violence makes this leap of faith look more like a hoax.

Nobody said peace with the Malay rebels would be easy. But to suffer retaliatory acts like this from the get-go, and the intensity behind them, suggests that Bangkok may have been duped into an agreement that they can't go back on.

But, it's not too late to expand the course that Thailand has taken by opening up to other separatist movements, including other factions within the BRN-Coordinate movement.

Make no mistake - peace proposals are a good thing. And Bangkok did the right thing by endorsing the idea of talking to the separatists. However, they should have asked for verification that the people they were talking to had the needed credentials and a capacity to deliver.

-- The Nation 2013-03-03

[473geo]

Perhaps there are some "insurgents" who do not enjoy the idea of becoming unemployed!!

Edited March 3, 2013 by 473geo

[reiltin]

The Wadah group consists principally of Muslim MPs with it's core members lawyers and teachers.They have little sway among insurgents.Thaksin and Chalerm hooked this cabal in for the headlines.Peace is harder won than war(ask the yanks).in this case outside assistance is needed to broker a deal.The southern Thais deserve more.

[Thai at Heart]

Went r shouldn't they have signed with one faction. No one said they represented the whole problem, but its a start.

[chainarong]

Not surprised, the peace deal most probably introduced another six splinter groups , all vying for control, all with an agenda, no one can be trusted, simple as that.

[Buchholz]

It didn't take long before the insurgents on the ground in the far South responded to the recent so-called historic breakthrough deal between the Thai government and the self-proclaimed leaders

.

Seems that Thaksin (ver. 4.0) is having the same issues that the farcical Thaksin (ver. 2.0) effort did five years ago.

Credibility, lack of including more than one faction, believability, sincerity, and very noticeably, a quick resumption of violence.

Southern Insurgents Announce Ceasefire

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/200628-southern-insurgents-announce-ceasefire/

.

July 17, 2008

Yala - One soldier was severely injured when patrol unit was ambushed by insurgents shortly after a group claiming to be their leaders announced a truce on TV.

The shooting occurred at 2:30 pm on Krong Penang - Bannang Sata Road in Ruemu village in Tambon Krong Penang of Krong Penang district.

The unit was patrolling the road on a pick-up truck when au unknown number of insurgents opened fire at them.

A group claiming to be leaders of underground insurgent groups in southern border provinces went on Channel 5 at noon to announce that all insurgents would abandon armed fighting now.

http://www.movethailand.com/news-thailand-soldiers-ambushed-in-yala-despite-truce-announcement-en-1327.html

July 18, 2008

Shooting in the restive South continued Friday, a day after three Muslim men claiming to be leaders of separatist insurgent groups in the far South announced a ceasefire in a video screened on Channel 5.

The victim, identified as Somporn Kaewmanee, 27, was shot in the morning when he was working in a rubber plantation in Yala province

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/200628-southern-insurgents-announce-ceasefire/page-4#entry2094060

Edited March 3, 2013 by Buchholz

[MaxLee]

Well if you as a politician SHOW sooooooooo OBVIOUSLY that you sign a so called peace deal "don't these people have in mind, that several militants of the South are gonna see it, and get all fired up to cause more trouble....

Yingluck: "Dear people of Thailand, I met the Malaysian Prime minister, I signed a peace deal with him, and I have it all on picture for your visual reference, to make it look like that we care,... my work is done, I go shopping, bye, bye ...

Southern Militants: "Yeah, fine, we watched enough TV news, let's kick some more a$$$$$$$$$$$$ big time....!!!!!!!!"

Edited March 3, 2013 by MaxLee

[OZEMADE]

It didn't take long before the insurgents on the ground in the far South responded to the recent so-called historic breakthrough deal between the Thai government and the self-proclaimed leaders

.

Seems that Thaksin (ver. 4.0) is having the same issues that the farcical Thaksin (ver. 2.0) effort did five years ago.

Credibility, lack of including more than one faction, believability, sincerity, and very noticeably, a quick resumption of violence.

Southern Insurgents Announce Ceasefire

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/200628-southern-insurgents-announce-ceasefire/

.

J

uly 17, 2008

Yala - One soldier was severely injured when patrol unit was ambushed by insurgents shortly after a group claiming to be their leaders announced a truce on TV.

The shooting occurred at 2:30 pm on Krong Penang - Bannang Sata Road in Ruemu village in Tambon Krong Penang of Krong Penang district.

The unit was patrolling the road on a pick-up truck when au unknown number of insurgents opened fire at them.

A group claiming to be leaders of underground insurgent groups in southern border provinces went on Channel 5 at noon to announce that all insurgents would abandon armed fighting now.

http://www.movethailand.com/news-thailand-soldiers-ambushed-in-yala-despite-truce-announcement-en-1327.html

July 18, 2008

Shooting in the restive South continued Friday, a day after three Muslim men claiming to be leaders of separatist insurgent groups in the far South announced a ceasefire in a video screened on Channel 5.

The victim, identified as Somporn Kaewmanee, 27, was shot in the morning when he was working in a rubber plantation in Yala province

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/200628-southern-insurgents-announce-ceasefire/page-4#entry2094060

When the deal of peace was signed by ONE insurgent party, that party stated then that this would not necessarily stop the other factions from attacking areas in the south. The deal was with ONE mob not all and thats a start.

[noitom]

The most dangerous man in the world is the man who has nothing to lose. Until Thais figure out what exactly the southern muslim insurgents/rebels/terrorists hope to achieve , what they have to lose, and how "they" see the picture, and address this in a rational way, any efforts that Thais make to slap together an "agreement" will have no sticking power.

Actually, this bogus agreement merely illustrates the lack of understanding of the insurgent case that Thais have in their striking a "deal" with Hasan Thoyib and that it would "unify" the insurgents. Publicizing it the way that the Thais did only serves to make the men with nothing to lose more and more dangerous.

[Buchholz]

The other paper is a bit more forthright this morning in calling the supposed peace deal a "sham".

.

[slapout]

With recent statements by the present government officials, as to their plans, proposals for peace, their experience, background, etc being so diverce as well as their intentions, history of lack of problem solving, why would anyone expect more than another photo/press release grandstand for the public.

Until someone in authority from all sides of this dog fight can meet with an arbitrator, agreeable to all parties, MOU's are worthless. When one of the two sides admit to defeat, or the probability of same, you have a stand off.which can continue for decades. At present, it looks like neither side has a real advantage to force the other to come to the peace table, with real intent of finding a peaceful solution.

[Locationthailand]

The PTP press release and Chalerms claims to have it happening is gradually becoming the longest suicide note in political history. If the terrorists factions are acting independently, then one party hiving off the list is a start but this is all going to take a lot of time. Politicians all (bar none) have ulterior motives. This need someone neutral with recognisable ethics whom the Islamists can trust.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Locationthailand

[OzMick]

The most dangerous man in the world is the man who has nothing to lose. Until Thais figure out what exactly the southern muslim insurgents/rebels/terrorists hope to achieve , what they have to lose, and how "they" see the picture, and address this in a rational way, any efforts that Thais make to slap together an "agreement" will have no sticking power.

Actually, this bogus agreement merely illustrates the lack of understanding of the insurgent case that Thais have in their striking a "deal" with Hasan Thoyib and that it would "unify" the insurgents. Publicizing it the way that the Thais did only serves to make the men with nothing to lose more and more dangerous.

I think it was Gen. Schwarzkopf who said that those willing to die do so just as easily as those who aren't - and he had experience helping them. Suicide attacks are a lethal weapon, but often over-rated. Ask Tojo.

Edited March 3, 2013 by OzMick

[Roadman]

It would sickeninng if it was not so sad...yet more Shinwatra / Pheu Thai bull crap. Add to the coalition including Yingluck and Pheu Thai to fight corruption, the equally bull crap garbage of dealing to everything in Thailand in six months grabs, the we will deal to drugs being the first to mind, let alone the tablets to all, the rice deals, the list goes on....and now we have solved peace in the south thanks to the Dubai criminal, and welcome back to the real world today Yingluck. Thai's wouldn't even notice when they are getting it shoved up them. It just another every day thai soap opera...one for Thailand, one for the Shinwatra's and one for the Shinwatra' mafia families in control...Yingluck may be a beautiful soap opera lead player but a Prime Minister and politican let alone bussiness woman she sucks big time. But then most thai's are to corrupt to notice. And the poor old Isaan Khwai still misses the hind tit and is happy with the <deleted>.

[bigbamboo]

Amateurs.

[HeavyDrinker]

There is a lot of ill-informed claptrap here.

The "Peace Process" in Northern Ireland is still an ongoing process some 18 years on. There will always be factions which will kick against the pricks, if you pardon the phrase.

What is needed here is patience and not the imbecile media in this country writing the whole deal off because of one incident and in turn prompting the sort of drivel which is being posted here.

There are a LOT of people on both sides working hard to find a solution to the troubles in the South.

Will they ever find a solution? Probably not, however, what they may find in a peaceful impasse which is a sight better than the slaughter we see daily on our TV screens.

[JohnPrewett]

Thai government could give the Muzlims the lower 1/3 of the nation,.... and it would not satisfy the real Islamist. It would just embolden them.

[khunken]

There is a lot of ill-informed claptrap here.

The "Peace Process" in Northern Ireland is still an ongoing process some 18 years on. There will always be factions which will kick against the pricks, if you pardon the phrase.

What is needed here is patience and not the imbecile media in this country writing the whole deal off because of one incident and in turn prompting the sort of drivel which is being posted here.

There are a LOT of people on both sides working hard to find a solution to the troubles in the South.

Will they ever find a solution? Probably not, however, what they may find in a peaceful impasse which is a sight better than the slaughter we see daily on our TV screens.

The insurgency in the south cannot be compared to the N Ireland peace process. There was basically one group of fighters with a political wing in N I, so it was much easier to find the right people to make an agreement with.

Here it's not the imbecile media that's at fault - it's an imbecile fugitive who cause the insurgency to get out of hand. There are a number of groups in the south with agendas that often don't agree. Yes, there are people working hard to find a solution, but PR stunts do not help, particularly involving the main instigator. Add the Chalerm factor into the mix & he's likely to make things worse not better.

The government is totally avoiding some of the major factors that would certainly help. The Krue Be & Tak Bae murders for starters. Some form of autonomy for the south for the main course & Thaksin out of the issue for afters.

[Richard Banks]

Peacefull Muzlims I see

[OZEMADE]

If you want to read a bit of how it all began, where it is today and how all Thai Prime Ministers have been trying to deal with it, check out the link below.

The South Thailand Insurgency is an ethnic separatist insurgency taking place in Southern Thailand, predominantly in the Malay Pattani
region, made up of the four southernmost provinces of Thailand. In Thailand it is known simply as Unrest in southern Thailand (Thai:ความไม่สงบในชายแดนภาคใต้ของประเทศไทย). Violence has increasingly been spilling over into other provinces. Although
separatist violence has occurred for decades in the region, the campaign escalated in 2004.^[4]

In July 2005, Thaksin Shinawatra, then Prime Minister of Thailand, assumed wide-ranging emergency powers to deal with the insurgency. In September 2006, Army Commander Sonthi Boonyaratkalin was granted an extraordinary increase in executive powers to combat the unrest.^[5] Soon afterwards, on 19 September 2006, Sonthi and a military junta ousted Thaksin in a coup.Despite conciliatory gestures from the junta, the insurgency continued and intensified. The death toll, 1,400 at the time of the coup, increased to 2,579 by mid-September 2007.^[6]

Despite little progress in curbing the violence, the junta declared that security was improving and that peace would come to the region by 2008.^[7]The death toll surpassed 3,000 in March 2008.^[8]During the Democrat-led government of Abhisit Vejjajiva, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya noted a "sense of optimism" and said that he was confident of bringing peace in to the region within 2010.^[9]
By the end of 2010, insurgency-related violence had increased, confounding the government's optimism.^[10]
Finally in March 2011, the government conceded that violence was increasing and could not be solved in a few months.^[11]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Thailand_insurgency

[reiltin]

No one mans responsible.No one man can fix it.Let's hope for a better future for the southern Thais-they deserve it.

[OZEMADE]

The other paper is a bit more forthright this morning in calling the supposed peace deal a "sham".

.

The only one winging about the peace talks down south and has a negative attitude is Abhisit Vejjajiva. He reckons that any deal won’tstop the violence. At least Yingluck and Thaksin got the programme up and running, a lot more than Abhisit did when he was PM.

Even the Army Chief Prayuth Chanocha was a bit sceptical of the first signing of the peace treaty with one party, but he at least iswilling to see how it pans out.

Edited March 3, 2013 by OZEMADE

[Buchholz]

Thai government could give the Muzlims the lower 1/3 of the nation,.... and it would not satisfy the real Islamist. It would just embolden them.

How do you think they should you deal with the Muzlims [sic], John?

.

[Buchholz]

.

The other paper is a bit more forthright this morning in calling the supposed peace deal a "sham".

.

The only one winging about the peace talks down south and has a negative attitude is Abhisit Vejjajiva.

.

Rather than whinging, it's a pragmatic and realist opinion that is shared by many, including the other paper as mentioned, that very valid doubts exist.

The healthy skepticism is due in no small part to the precedent set by an earlier Thaksin-run administration that claimed a peace deal was set and that calm would prevail. It did... for about two hours.

.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Buchholz

[OZEMADE]

.

The other paper is a bit more forthright this morning in calling the supposed peace deal a "sham".

.

The only one winging about the peace talks down south and has a negative attitude is Abhisit Vejjajiva.

.

Rather than whinging, it's a pragmatic and realist opinion that is shared by many, including the other paper as mentioned, that very valid doubts exist.

The healthy skepticism is due in no small part to the precedent set by an earlier Thaksin-run administration that claimed a peace deal was set and that calm would prevail. It did... for about two hours.

.

The other paper was only quoting what was stated, it was not their opinion. If you think striking up peace talks is negatived, then you put yourself in the same boat as Abhisit.

As far as the earlier Gov you mention, things were just as bad before he came into power.

[justathought]

It is clear that the people in the South do not trust the Thai government. The Thai army and police that run the South, would any reader here trust them?

But nevertheless, I for one am glad to see some efforts made. Long feuds like this will take genuine and determined efforts to bring to peace.

[Buchholz]

.

The other paper is a bit more forthright this morning in calling the supposed peace deal a "sham".

.

The only one winging about the peace talks down south and has a negative attitude is Abhisit Vejjajiva.

.

Rather than whinging, it's a pragmatic and realist opinion that is shared by many, including the other paper as mentioned, that very valid doubts exist.

The healthy skepticism is due in no small part to the precedent set by an earlier Thaksin-run administration that claimed a peace deal was set and that calm would prevail. It did... for about two hours.

.

The other paper was only quoting what was stated, it was not their opinion. If you think striking up peace talks is negatived, then you put yourself in the same boat as Abhisit.

As far as the earlier Gov you mention, things were just as bad before he came into power.

I'm all for peace deals if they are not splintered and quickly shown to be meaningless.

The earlier government I was referring to was Samak and yes, things were bad before him when Thaksin greatly exacerbated a long-standing, but before him low-key, problem.

Interesting that the same Southern scamster involved with Samak's bogus peace deal could well again be involved with the latest Yingluck deal.

.

[HeavyDrinker]

Bucky, you have to look a lot further back than Samak....

[Buchholz]

Bucky, you have to look a lot further back than Samak....

.

Yes, I do if regarding the overall issues, however, if the focus is on the extreme violence aspect, that is of a much more recent time frame, as exemplified by the often-quoted passage, cited again in a previous post.

.

Although separatist violence has occurred for decades in the region, the campaign escalated in 2004.

. Edited March 3, 2013 by Buchholz

[MikeOboe57]

Well maybe they should have refrained from sticking the Thaksin name tag on the treaty. But PTP needed to portray the "Real PM" as wise elder statesman who selflessly volunteered to help his beloved home country, so they needed this charade right before the Bangkok election,.<br /><br />When you pick the least influential "resistance" group, headed by people who are more concerned with prostate surgery than protest and insurgency, the resulting "peace treaty" is not worth the paper it is written on.<br /><br />