Don't Like Thaksin? Tough Luck..

[thaigene2]

SOURCE: FINANCIAL TIMES - LONDON - 11 March 2006

Fissure between urban and rural attitudes towards Thailand's prime minister grows deeper

By Amy Kazmin in Bangkok

Published: March 11 2006 02:00

For a brief moment a political eternity ago, Thailand's dusty, impoverished north-eastern district of Art Samart was the backdrop for an unusual spectacle.

Thaksin Shinawatra, the tycoon-turned-prime minister, chose the remote area as the stage for a "reality show" intended to demonstrate his personal battle against rural poverty.

Under glaring camera lights, the charismatic premier spent five January days strolling through poor villages, talking to people about their woes and goading officials to take action to improve conditions.

For the poorest, he dug out Bt1,000 ($25) notes from his own pocket. Mr Thaksin also tasted traditional dishes, relaxed to the strains of local folk music and slept in a tent. "Backstage: Prime Minister" was broadcast nationally on a pliant cable channel.

Just three days after Mr Thaksin went home, his family sold its controlling stake in Shin Corp, the telecommunications empire he founded, to Singapore's Temasek Holdings for a tax-free Bt73bn profit, triggering an outcry in Bangkok that prompted the premier to call snap elections.

Now, as they watch TV reports of anti-government protests and listen to the speculation about Mr Thaksin's political survival, residents of Art Samart are seething over the storm that has engulfed their adored former guest.

"People here are very stressed and tense," says 71-year-old Jantra Muangketleu, one of a group of senior citizens who ate dinner with Mr Thaksin during his trip. "Thaksin has helped a lot of poor people very much, but people now want to steal his position." Her voice grows louder. "When we watch TV, we really hate those protesters," she says. Stabbing the air repeatedly with a chopping knife, she adds: "We want to harm them."

Her neighbour, Bualom Silaphasingha, 47, is equally agitated. "Why don't those people in Bangkok let him keep working on developing the rural areas?" she says angrily. "There has never been a prime minister before who tries to help people in remote rural areas."

The passions in Art Samart highlight the wide - and potentially dangerous - disconnect that has developed between Bangkok's middle and professional classes and Thailand's rural masses when it comes to perceptions of Mr Thaksin and his leadership.

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a Thammasat University political scientist, warns this chasm holds the potential for conflict, especially if Mr Thaksin - who has so far shown restraint - opts to mobilise his rural supporters to counter Bangkok anti-government demonstrators.

"Never before have we had such a political fissure as this, between the urban areas and the countryside," says Mr Somjaisaid. "There is a possibility of a violent showdown if there is no peaceful solution."

In the Thai capital, many residents feel betrayed by a premier who has failed to live up to his promises to eradicate corruption and to run clean, efficient government without any thought of self-enrichment. Many are bitter over Mr Thaksin's subversion of Thailand's fledgling democratic institutions, including checks and balances intended to keep elected politicians in line.

But in the countryside - where nearly 70 per cent of Thais live - Mr Thaksin remains popular for his bloody 2003 "war on drugs", during which around 2,500 alleged drug pedlars were assassinated. He is also admired for suspending farmers' debts and bringing cheap healthcare, funds for community development and easy personal loans to rural villages across the country.

"I have no idea what those people in Bangkok think," says Kamporn Sindhu, a 44-year-old farmer who had her debts to an agricultural co-operative suspended for three years. "We know they accuse him of being corrupt but for us, the grassroots people, our life is better. He helped us a lot."

The gap in perceptions between town and country has been created partly by tight government controls over the electronic media, the primary source of news and information for most rural dwellers. Until very recently, Thai TV news programmes served as mouthpieces for the premier, while critics who raised questions about conflicts of interests, human rights abuses and other serious issues were denied airtime.

And while Bangkok taxpayers are now up in arms that the Shinawatra family paid no taxes at all on their windfall profits from the Shin Corp sale, many rural villagers are not sure what to believe about the deal, which few understand. Even if he did do wrong, it seems, most rural villagers really do not care.

"I keep hearing, 'shares, shares, shares,' but I don't know what it means," says Ms Kamporn. "People say 'Thaksin sold the country to others'. But from what we see, our country is still the same."

[Cassandra]

SOURCE: FINANCIAL TIMES - LONDON - 11 March 2006

Fissure between urban and rural attitudes towards Thailand's prime minister grows deeper

By Amy Kazmin in Bangkok

Published: March 11 2006 02:00

For a brief moment a political eternity ago, Thailand's dusty, impoverished north-eastern district of Art Samart was the backdrop for an unusual spectacle.

Thaksin Shinawatra, the tycoon-turned-prime minister, chose the remote area as the stage for a "reality show" intended to demonstrate his personal battle against rural poverty.

Under glaring camera lights, the charismatic premier spent five January days strolling through poor villages, talking to people about their woes and goading officials to take action to improve conditions.

For the poorest, he dug out Bt1,000 ($25) notes from his own pocket. Mr Thaksin also tasted traditional dishes, relaxed to the strains of local folk music and slept in a tent. "Backstage: Prime Minister" was broadcast nationally on a pliant cable channel.

Just three days after Mr Thaksin went home, his family sold its controlling stake in Shin Corp, the telecommunications empire he founded, to Singapore's Temasek Holdings for a tax-free Bt73bn profit, triggering an outcry in Bangkok that prompted the premier to call snap elections.

Now, as they watch TV reports of anti-government protests and listen to the speculation about Mr Thaksin's political survival, residents of Art Samart are seething over the storm that has engulfed their adored former guest.

"People here are very stressed and tense," says 71-year-old Jantra Muangketleu, one of a group of senior citizens who ate dinner with Mr Thaksin during his trip. "Thaksin has helped a lot of poor people very much, but people now want to steal his position." Her voice grows louder. "When we watch TV, we really hate those protesters," she says. Stabbing the air repeatedly with a chopping knife, she adds: "We want to harm them."

Her neighbour, Bualom Silaphasingha, 47, is equally agitated. "Why don't those people in Bangkok let him keep working on developing the rural areas?" she says angrily. "There has never been a prime minister before who tries to help people in remote rural areas."

The passions in Art Samart highlight the wide - and potentially dangerous - disconnect that has developed between Bangkok's middle and professional classes and Thailand's rural masses when it comes to perceptions of Mr Thaksin and his leadership.

Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a Thammasat University political scientist, warns this chasm holds the potential for conflict, especially if Mr Thaksin - who has so far shown restraint - opts to mobilise his rural supporters to counter Bangkok anti-government demonstrators.

"Never before have we had such a political fissure as this, between the urban areas and the countryside," says Mr Somjaisaid. "There is a possibility of a violent showdown if there is no peaceful solution."

In the Thai capital, many residents feel betrayed by a premier who has failed to live up to his promises to eradicate corruption and to run clean, efficient government without any thought of self-enrichment. Many are bitter over Mr Thaksin's subversion of Thailand's fledgling democratic institutions, including checks and balances intended to keep elected politicians in line.

But in the countryside - where nearly 70 per cent of Thais live - Mr Thaksin remains popular for his bloody 2003 "war on drugs", during which around 2,500 alleged drug pedlars were assassinated. He is also admired for suspending farmers' debts and bringing cheap healthcare, funds for community development and easy personal loans to rural villages across the country.

"I have no idea what those people in Bangkok think," says Kamporn Sindhu, a 44-year-old farmer who had her debts to an agricultural co-operative suspended for three years. "We know they accuse him of being corrupt but for us, the grassroots people, our life is better. He helped us a lot."

The gap in perceptions between town and country has been created partly by tight government controls over the electronic media, the primary source of news and information for most rural dwellers. Until very recently, Thai TV news programmes served as mouthpieces for the premier, while critics who raised questions about conflicts of interests, human rights abuses and other serious issues were denied airtime.

And while Bangkok taxpayers are now up in arms that the Shinawatra family paid no taxes at all on their windfall profits from the Shin Corp sale, many rural villagers are not sure what to believe about the deal, which few understand. Even if he did do wrong, it seems, most rural villagers really do not care.

"I keep hearing, 'shares, shares, shares,' but I don't know what it means," says Ms Kamporn. "People say 'Thaksin sold the country to others'. But from what we see, our country is still the same."

I happen to know the journalist concerned, Amy Kazmin, is no Thaksin fan either.Yet she manages to capture in her article an important element in Thai thinking that has virtually completely eluded most posters on this forum.The standard of debate on this forum has been disappointingly low and raises questions about its ability to consider serious issues.

[sbk]

Yet she only visits the rural areas where he is popular. Come down south, it is still quite rural and he is reviled down here. Upper South, Lower South. Its all the same. He has done nothing for the people down here and they know it. Even the poorest farmer down here wouldn't vote for him.

[monochaser]

What % of the vote did he get 2 years ago? Fickle voters or what. I have one word to sum up my feelings about the current political situation in Thailand....... YAWN

[Cassandra]

Yet she only visits the rural areas where he is popular. Come down south, it is still quite rural and he is reviled down here. Upper South, Lower South. Its all the same. He has done nothing for the people down here and they know it. Even the poorest farmer down here wouldn't vote for him.

Yes obviously TRT is much less strong in the South where the Democrats are entrenched, although you are quite wrong to suggest there is no support for Thaksin.On the other hand, the FT report undoubtedly reflects the position of most Thais in the countryside although there are of course significant regional variations.It's an awkward fact of life and I don't personally like it.I don't think you are suggesting that the FT correspondent was deliberately rigging the evidence, but anyone who does would be misinformed.My point is that this forum has completely failed in its discussion of the current political crisis to reflect on the implications of Thaksin's support from most Thais.There have been one or two pertinent posts but the general standard has been quite dreadful.I stress this has nothing to do with the fact that different opinions are held:that goes with the territory of politics' rough and tumble.The problem is really the complete lack of an even a half way sophisticated analysis.

[Thaiboxer]

Thakisn would only visit rural villages and eat with poor folks for the sake of his image....it's all a smokescreen. If he really cared about the country he wouldn't run it like a business for his own personal gain.

[Neeranam]

Taksin cares about Thai rural folk - don't make me laugh.

True, many uneducated people upcountry like him, even admire him, but they are gradually changing to see the truth.

"Never before have we had such a political fissure as this, between the urban areas and the countryside," says Mr Somjaisaid. "There is a possibility of a violent showdown if there is no peaceful solution."

Nonsense! Edited March 12, 2006 by Neeranam

[ProfessorFart]

For the poorest, he dug out Bt1,000 ($25) notes from his own pocket.

Sums it all up for me really. I'd love anyone who bunged me B1000 as well!

[Cassandra]

Taksin cares about Thai rural folk - don't make me laugh.

True, many uneducated people upcountry like him, even admire him, but they are gradually changing to see the truth.

"Never before have we had such a political fissure as this, between the urban areas and the countryside," says Mr Somjaisaid. "There is a possibility of a violent showdown if there is no peaceful solution."

Nonsense!

You're almost certainly right that Thaksin's concern for rural folk is simply part of a politician's bag of tricks.But there is no evidence that upcountry voters "are gradually changing to see the truth", pure wish fulfilment I'm afraid.If anything the trend is moving the other way, even in Bangkok, with many beginning to feel very uncomfortable with the opposition's agenda and tactics.I'm not sure why you are so quick to dismiss the possible ramifications of the political fissure: there's no immediate threat of violence but the potential is there, hence Khun Somjaisid's sensible wish for a peaceful solution.

On Professor Fart's point, fair enough but the rural perception is that Thaksin has done far more than bung the odd Bt 1000 note.Under TRT there has been more support for the rural areas than under any other administration.Cynical, self serving and selective I know, but nevertheless in substance true and another awkward reality for the farang ant-Thaksin mob to grapple with.

[Neeranam]

But there is no evidence that upcountry voters "are gradually changing to see the truth", pure wish fulfilment I'm afraid.

I'm afraid that there is some evidence. I live, work and play with upcountry people. I meet hundreds of rural farmers every week through my work. I believe what I see and hear, not what I read in The Financial Times.

[ProfessorFart]

Under TRT there has been more support for the rural areas than under any other administration

Do you have any firm stats to back up this statement Cassandra?

[slackula]

ThaksinAny politician would only visit rural villages and eat with poor folks for the sake of his image....it's all a smokescreen.

Fixed it for ya, Thaiboxer!

His stunts are indistinguishable from the cr@p that goes on during any election, anywhere. When they are on the campaign trail all politicos kiss babies and stage phoney activities for the photo-ops. It's the nature of the game imho and, like him or loathe him, Thaksin plays it rather well.

[phusingpete]

But there is no evidence that upcountry voters "are gradually changing to see the truth", pure wish fulfilment I'm afraid.

I'm afraid that there is some evidence. I live, work and play with upcountry people. I meet hundreds of rural farmers every week through my work. I believe what I see and hear, not what I read in The Financial Times.

I agree that people in the rural area where I am are beginning to see through the Taxin myth,BUT and it is a big but they have seen major improvements in their lives.Since I have lived here(four years now) we have seen the health service develop beyond belief.The area is developing and prospering,new businesses cropping up on a weekly basis.New roads and houses being built, old dirt roads being paved.The volume of new cars grows daily,owned by Thais,no doubt on credit but so it is in the west.The place is changing fast.I do not know if this down to Taxin ,but I do know the villagers are enjoying their new found prosperity(sp)....

[Cassandra]

Under TRT there has been more support for the rural areas than under any other administration

Do you have any firm stats to back up this statement Cassandra?

Professor, no firm stats that I have the resources to provide but the evidence is more than subjective particularly in central plain, North and Isaan.It's basically to do with better access to cheap credit, upgrading of land title, initiatives such as rubber planting,cash and support for village initiatives and projects.I think also Thaksin has played his cards very astutely with the rural poor who now imagine they are taken seriously..Completely insincere perhaps but there is a reality to the support measures which it would be foolish to deny( unless you are the type that knows everything because he works, plays etc with rural folks - the type that doesn't consider for a moment that a highly experienced FT correspondent might have something of value to say)

[Heng]

But there is no evidence that upcountry voters "are gradually changing to see the truth", pure wish fulfilment I'm afraid.

I'm afraid that there is some evidence. I live, work and play with upcountry people. I meet hundreds of rural farmers every week through my work. I believe what I see and hear, not what I read in The Financial Times.

I agree that people in the rural area where I am are beginning to see through the Taxin myth,BUT and it is a big but they have seen major improvements in their lives.Since I have lived here(four years now) we have seen the health service develop beyond belief.The area is developing and prospering,new businesses cropping up on a weekly basis.New roads and houses being built, old dirt roads being paved.The volume of new cars grows daily,owned by Thais,no doubt on credit but so it is in the west.The place is changing fast.I do not know if this down to Taxin ,but I do know the villagers are enjoying their new found prosperity(sp)....

No no no. All those good things are the result of the previous administration's efforts. All the bad things are the result of TRT. Doh! Time for another visa run.

[ColPyat]

Professor, no firm stats that I have the resources to provide but the evidence is more than subjective particularly in central plain, North and Isaan.It's basically to do with better access to cheap credit, upgrading of land title, initiatives such as rubber planting,cash and support for village initiatives and projects.I think also Thaksin has played his cards very astutely with the rural poor who now imagine they are taken seriously..Completely insincere perhaps but there is a reality to the support measures which it would be foolish to deny( unless you are the type that knows everything because he works, plays etc with rural folks - the type that doesn't consider for a moment that a highly experienced FT correspondent might have something of value to say)

Although i agree with most of the article, there is one major mistake in it. At- Samart is not an impoverished village. Compared to many villages it is actually rather well of. It's main problem is debts, mainly generated by Thaksin's policies.

Thaksin is a masterful populist. And unfortunately the opposition, parliamentary and extraparliamentary, has consistently failed to adress the villagers in the north and north east and therefore given a free reign for Thaksin to propagate his own programs unopposed. The upgrading of the land right papers are a normal procedure, independent of Thaksin. His government recently started to take wrongly held land away from the owners, unfortunately though he does not touch land held illegally by the rich and powerful.

A major issue is the change of law concerning sor por kor 401 land, orginally reserved for the poor, which now can be used as collateral for loans. This might sound as a good idea, unfortunately though the implication is lacking any proper planning. Far too high loans are given out, no assistence is given to small scale farmers in how to properly invest these loans. We hold sor por kor 401 land having a selfsufficient organic farm. In the days most loans were given, we were monthly harrased by officials to take up the loan offers exceeding 100 000 baht, on land that is worth on paper only 400 000 baht. There would be no way to pay back that money in the time frame.

You mentioned the rubber scheme, another catastrophy in the making. In our village the rubber scheme has changed the landscape. Problem though is that in many fields the saplings have died already, and in others the trees grow far too slow. In the north, and most areas of the north east there simply is not enough water for economically feasable rubber planting. Furthermore, rubber is a high intensity chemical fertilizer plant. For this over many years money has to be loaned by the farmers. The earliest possible timeframe that one can start tapping rubber is about 7 years.

Rubber is a world market commodity. Thaksin has many times in his radioshow and speaches promised that the rubber price will not go down. This is a lie. The rubber price is highly volatile and depends on demand. At the moment there is high demand from China. Momentarily cash rich China buys more natural products than it can use, and nobody knows how China's economy will look like in a few years time.

The rubber scheme is basically a scheme where government funds are used for easy loans in order to mainly benefit the chemical fertiliser companies, and, if by chance it might work, to benefit mainly the exporters. If it doesn't work, the bill will be paid by the farmers and ultimately by the taxpayer.

Village level TRT activists answer to any question regarding those schemes is not to worry - Thaksin will help.

Well researched alternative farming programs specifically designed for small scale farmers are not promoted by TRT, such as the 'sittakit por pueang' systhem'.

The 30 Baht sythem is basically not a bad idea, i believe though that the democrats had a somewhat similar sythem in the books. The big problem though is that the 30 baht scheme is notoriously underfunded.

Neverthless, it should be rather clear to anyone that the vast majority of the rural population in the north and north east are staunch Thaksin supporters. Who denies that fact is living in dreamland. And who believes that this support has soleley been reached by traditional vote buying should spend more time in some of those villages. The most important thing that the opposition has still failed to counter is that TRT is the only politrical party ever in Thailand that has managed to have a continious presence in those villages. They hold monthly meetings in all those villages, while the opposition parties only come as they ever did, just immediately before election time. This is not enough to sway rural voters away from Thaksin.

The present situation is a complete mess. The protest are still mainly urban based, the opposition has completely failed to adress the rural population. Most speakers on the demonstrations adress only the "sale of the country to foreigners" issue, which is completely irrelevant to the rural voters. The leaders of the demonstartions are somewhat stuck in their strategies in the 70's, completely disregarding the fact that Thaksin's populism has completely changed the political landscape in Thailand. Rural poor are not anymore apathetic towards politics - they are very engaged, and largely pro Thaksin.

The inabililty of both sides to compromise, and their populism targetted at the different sectors of Thai society are creating huge rifts in the anyhow fractured society. This is doing incredible damage to Thailand, both internally, and to Thailand as a country for long term foreign investment.

The calls for the king to solve the situation are highly immature, and show to the whole world how backward Thailand still is. The precedent it sets should be rather clear. It shows to the whole outside world that in a political crises only an aging constitutional monarch has to step in. What after he is gone?

And yes, the longer this goes on the higher the risk for violence. And if that happens Thailand has completely lost out, regardless if Thaksin stays or not.

[thaigene2]

In summary I think the rural folks in the North and in Issarn are well aware that corruption is alive and well in politics, and that business and politics are so closely tied together here that "resistance is futile". If anything, the folks upcountry are getting angry with the middle-class and hi-so Bangkok Thais..because these same rural folks know only too well how those people got rich in the first place in the pre-Thaksin world.

The villagers say corruption has always been there and wasn't inveted by Thaksin (though maybe perfected). IMHO those trying to bring down Thaksin are the disaffected urban middle-class and hi-so families that got rich by having a brother-in-law or cousin in the civil service who was able to send government contracts their way (Guangxi - without trying to get too ethnic about it). Thaksin re-arranged things so that the contracts went to his cronies and big-money corporate buddies. Why do you think the same middle-class complainers made such a fuss when he announced that Thailand would open its doors to foreign companies to build huge infrastructure mega-projects??

Because, his buddies will get the "partner" contracts. Remember, you can't do any kind of business in Thailand without a Thai partner. Ever noticed how almost all of these foreign retail chains are run by Central Group? Why is that?

What is needed is not throwing out Thaksin or demanding another set of constiutional amendments. What is sorely needed is RULE OF LAW applied, TRANSPARENCY implemented, and a judiciary that can be trusted and held accountable for their judgements (at present it's illegal to be critical of rulings).

You can rewrite the constitution as many times as you like. But if the court throws out a challenge raised under some new amendment..what benefit would it have been? A waste of time.

[sriracha john]

The calls for the king

ColPyat... I like your educated and informed posts, but PLEASE REFRAIN from making posts about His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the manner in which you did.

I know this is not the first time it's been brought to your attention as a moderater heavily deleted an earlier post in another thread along this same vein.

Thank you for cooperating...

and please continue to post your normally intelligent and well researched posts while keeping the above modifications in mind...

Thank you.

[ColPyat]

The calls for the king

ColPyat... I like your educated and informed posts, but PLEASE REFRAIN from making posts about His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the manner in which you did.

I know this is not the first time it's been brought to your attention as a moderater heavily deleted an earlier post in another thread along this same vein.

Thank you for cooperating...

and please continue to post your normally intelligent and well researched posts while keeping the above modifications in mind...

Thank you.

Sorry, but the moderated post was moderated because it went a bit too much indepth regarding the theoretical background of the leaders of the demonstration. Which i guess, would be rather important to discuss, but due to the nature of an open internet forum with an enormous amount of troglodytes allowed to post i think it was rather wise to delete.

Name it how you want, but i see it not just as disrespectful to the monarchy, but highly immature that especially the Anti Thaksin side is constantly evocing the King and Royal Power, as if they take for granted that the King is taking their side in this conflict.

If you look at the laws here in Thailand, there is a section that very clearly that states that not only insulting the monarchy is illegal, but also interpreting what the King, or a member of the Royal family has spoken.

The moves towards a royally appointed interim government are clear tactical moves in order to sbtly force the King to take sides in this issue. Whoever writes those petitions, or supports them does walk a very tight line.

So basically, what i am trying to say here is, that regarding the monarchy issue, ANY post mentioning the King, or the royal family in context with the present political problems has to be morethan carefully thought about before posting, especially when carlessly applauding these petitions towards a royally appointed interim government.

But yes, i would prefer moving away from that particular subject alltogether.

[Cassandra]

The calls for the king

ColPyat... I like your educated and informed posts, but PLEASE REFRAIN from making posts about His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the manner in which you did.

I know this is not the first time it's been brought to your attention as a moderater heavily deleted an earlier post in another thread along this same vein.

Thank you for cooperating...

and please continue to post your normally intelligent and well researched posts while keeping the above modifications in mind...

Thank you.

Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens

[the gent]

The calls for the king

ColPyat... I like your educated and informed posts, but PLEASE REFRAIN from making posts about His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the manner in which you did.

I know this is not the first time it's been brought to your attention as a moderater heavily deleted an earlier post in another thread along this same vein.

Thank you for cooperating...

and please continue to post your normally intelligent and well researched posts while keeping the above modifications in mind...

Thank you.

Just out of interest, what is your justification in posting this patronising drivel ?

[sriracha john]

The calls for the king

ColPyat... I like your educated and informed posts, but PLEASE REFRAIN from making posts about His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the manner in which you did.

I know this is not the first time it's been brought to your attention as a moderater heavily deleted an earlier post in another thread along this same vein.

Thank you for cooperating...

and please continue to post your normally intelligent and well researched posts while keeping the above modifications in mind...

Thank you.

Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens

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13) English language is the only acceptable language on thaivisa.com, except of course in the Thai Language Forum where Thai is encouraged.

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The calls for the king

ColPyat... I like your educated and informed posts, but PLEASE REFRAIN from making posts about His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej in the manner in which you did.

I know this is not the first time it's been brought to your attention as a moderater heavily deleted an earlier post in another thread along this same vein.

Thank you for cooperating...

and please continue to post your normally intelligent and well researched posts while keeping the above modifications in mind...

Thank you.

Just out of interest, what is your justification in posting this patronising drivel ?

thaivisa.com Forum Rules

By using this service you agree;

No disrespect of the King of Thailand or The Thai Royal Family! Discussion of topics concerning the King or other current or deceased members of the Thai Royal Family is forbidden.

Edited March 12, 2006 by sriracha john