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Usd, Us Dollar - Thai Baht Exchange Rate Forecast ?


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what is happening to the USD - Thai Baht exchange rate ?

USD has been depreciating fast against the Thai Baht since beginning of 2013.

When would be a good time to convert a USD bank account into Thai Baht account ?

wait for USD to go back up or just cut losses and convert now before it gets any worse ??

Those who have a USD ( Foreign Currency Deposit ) accounts perhaps have the same concern.

convert or wait ?

Opinions and predictions are appreciated.

No one has a crystal ball, but just curious how everyone else feels on this issue.

Convert now ? or wait ?

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Its not just the U.S. dollar that is dropping against the Thai Baht. Its also Canada, Britain, Australia , Euro etc. I just read last week in a U.S. financial paper about how strong the economy in Thailand is. Strong economy translates into strong baht. If you are living in Thailand on retirement pension and are getting closeto being below water then I think there is some cause for concern.

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I should have added to my post that no one knows if the Thai baht will continue to appreciate or not. However if you have a fairly reasonable amount in a U.S.D. currency account you might consider putting 50% of it into a Thai baht account. Hedge you bets.

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All high debt economies (Eurozone, USA, Japan) are in a race to devalue their currencies and create some inflation. Currency devaluation and inflation are two sides of the same coin.

These countries would like to repay their debt in devalued currencies.

The question is, will the BRICS allow this, or will there worldwide competitive devaluations? The BRICS don't like it, but so far have been tolerant as it's seen as a necessary evil to help the West pay down some of it's debt. If austerity weren't part of the equation, they might have been less tolerant.

The big unknown in Thailand is something we're not allowed to talk about. When the event happens, there could be massive loss of confidence in Thailand. Or not. It's hard to say, and a lot depends on the transition. Also, unlike '97 there's not a lot of short term foreign money parked here so massive currency outflows are unlikely, though concerted speculation against the Baht cannot be ruled out.

With what looks like a long term weakening of the Yen, a slowing of Japanese investment growth is likely. This could however be replaced by more investment from China and Korea.

On the whole, it looks like the Baht, if it weakens, is unlikely to do so substantially. Against that, there is the problem to trying to find good-yield investments in Thailand with all that baht you might want to bring in.

Are you sufficiently confused? If so, my job here is done.

T

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Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

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My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

Correct, you don't print $85 billion USD a month and inject it into the economy without driving down the dollar index. The only problem is that it is a race to the bottom between the Euro, the GBP and the USD. Thus the strong BHT against it's weak counter parts.

The Fed has hinted at increasing rates in the later part of 2013, but with Bernanke stating that the Fed will continue to ease until the unemployment rate is at 5.5%, who knows when devaluation will curtail.

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I should have added to my post that no one knows if the Thai baht will continue to appreciate or not. However if you have a fairly reasonable amount in a U.S.D. currency account you might consider putting 50% of it into a Thai baht account. Hedge you bets.

I guess i am the minority. I just took a bunch of baht and bought usd.

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I should have added to my post that no one knows if the Thai baht will continue to appreciate or not. However if you have a fairly reasonable amount in a U.S.D. currency account you might consider putting 50% of it into a Thai baht account. Hedge you bets.

I guess i am the minority. I just took a bunch of baht and bought usd.

In the short term, ouch! Long term, who knows? You may make a killing.

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So, I am in the US right now and will be coming back on the 21st (miss songkran :( )

I have about 7K USD I want to convert to Baht to pick up a used ER6n.

How should I get my $ over, in a way that costs me the least

Wire transfer

Bring the USD to Thailand

Transfer to Baht to bring over.

Bringing over 200k Baht just seems like a good way to get a free colonoscopy.

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So, I am in the US right now and will be coming back on the 21st (miss songkran sad.png )

I have about 7K USD I want to convert to Baht to pick up a used ER6n.

How should I get my $ over, in a way that costs me the least

Wire transfer

Bring the USD to Thailand

Transfer to Baht to bring over.

Bringing over 200k Baht just seems like a good way to get a free colonoscopy.

I brought over 10,000 once had no issues at all . 5000 each pocket . Just make sure you have crisp fresh 100 dollar bills ....

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In 1997 there were shop houses being built everywhere for what reason I do not know there definitely was not a demand for them. Now in 2013 there are short time hotels being built everywhere again I see no demand for them. Also there are many many big box stores being built such as global house you walk into them and there are always more employees than customers how can these stores survive? All these stores and short time hotels are being built with borrowed money. To add to this the government is borrowing 2 trillion baht. I think the Thai economy is going to crash and the baht with it.

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Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

Sorry but I have to disagree with you. I find having a Foreign currency account helps a great deal. I only transfer bank to bank, no cash, so the only charges are transfer costs which I pay in full at the sending end which I find to be cheaper. I follow the Thai Rate of exchange and when I consider it to be good I transfer from my foreign currency account into Baht and this is done immediately and at the rate shown. Last year I was able to get THB 50.17 to GBP and this high only lasted a couple of hours. To transfer directly from abroad to a THB account takes a few days and you cannot control the ROE, its pot luck what rate you get when the funds arrive. The day I opened my Foreign currency account was a very good day for me. Also Bank transfer always give a better ROE than a cash transaction and the best rate is in Thailand, changing in THB at the sending end gives alower ROE. Edited by Billmont
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Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

Sorry but I have to disagree with you. I find having a Foreign currency account helps a great deal. I only transfer bank to bank, no cash, so the only charges are transfer costs which I pay in full at the sending end which I find to be cheaper. I follow the Thai Rate of exchange and when I consider it to be good I transfer from my foreign currency account into Baht and this is done immediately and at the rate shown. Last year I was able to get THB 50.17 to GBP and this high only lasted a couple of hours. To transfer directly from abroad to a THB account takes a few days and you cannot control the ROE, its pot luck what rate you get when the funds arrive. The day I opened my Foreign currency account was a very good day for me. Also Bank transfer always give a better ROE than a cash transaction and the best rate is in Thailand, changing in THB at the sending end gives alower ROE.

I don't know what rates you are using, but I get a better rate taking money from a signature cash advance. The Visa rate is almost always better than the bank's exchange rate. Fortunately for me, I do not pay any currency exchange fee or fees to my financial institution.

At the time I am writing this post, the Visa exchange rate is 29.20 and the Bangkok Bank TT rate (which is the highest the list on the web site) is 28.86. I don't know which rate you would get exchanging in a foreign currency account. That is about $40 on 100,000 THB.

MSPain

PS Every month I transfer in this manner and it is deposited in my Thai bank account immediately. I know the exchange rate before I make the transfer.

Edited by hml367
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My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

Indeed. Economists were advising people to dump the American Dollar as far back as about 2001-2002. I dumped all my USD in 2002 and bought Euros and Swiss Francs. Between 2002-2008 the Euro rose 63% against the USD. You could have bought Euros in 2002 for US $0.90. By the end of 2007 the value of those Euros skyrocketed to US $1.47. During the same 6 year period the U.S. debt grew 60%. In 2004 one CHF would have bought US $.72. By 2011 you could buy 1.38 USD. I can't imagine why anyone would hold U.S. Dollars in this day and age; especially with electronic banking and ATM's, you could get get greenbacks when you are in America any time you needed them (cheap)!

The THB is very strong and has been for years now. I still would not hold a large amount of THB. Anything could happen... It's really a bit late to be worrying about what to do with your Dollars. The writing was on the wall years ago. Things will only get worse in the USA.

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Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

Sorry but I have to disagree with you. I find having a Foreign currency account helps a great deal. I only transfer bank to bank, no cash, so the only charges are transfer costs which I pay in full at the sending end which I find to be cheaper. I follow the Thai Rate of exchange and when I consider it to be good I transfer from my foreign currency account into Baht and this is done immediately and at the rate shown. Last year I was able to get THB 50.17 to GBP and this high only lasted a couple of hours. To transfer directly from abroad to a THB account takes a few days and you cannot control the ROE, its pot luck what rate you get when the funds arrive. The day I opened my Foreign currency account was a very good day for me. Also Bank transfer always give a better ROE than a cash transaction and the best rate is in Thailand, changing in THB at the sending end gives alower ROE.

I have a CHF and a Euro account here in Thailand (through my brokerage firm). I'm only charged 500 THB every time I want to buy some THB and have it transferred to my Kasikorn Bank account.

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Why anybody would have a Foreign currency deposit account in this country is beyond me. They charge a percentage for opening it, and also for closing it, and pay almost zero interest.

In relation to the exchange rate, my crystal ball was broken a few years back, and no replacements are available here. Maybe ebay.

Sorry but I have to disagree with you. I find having a Foreign currency account helps a great deal. I only transfer bank to bank, no cash, so the only charges are transfer costs which I pay in full at the sending end which I find to be cheaper. I follow the Thai Rate of exchange and when I consider it to be good I transfer from my foreign currency account into Baht and this is done immediately and at the rate shown. Last year I was able to get THB 50.17 to GBP and this high only lasted a couple of hours. To transfer directly from abroad to a THB account takes a few days and you cannot control the ROE, its pot luck what rate you get when the funds arrive. The day I opened my Foreign currency account was a very good day for me. Also Bank transfer always give a better ROE than a cash transaction and the best rate is in Thailand, changing in THB at the sending end gives alower ROE.

I don't know what rates you are using, but I get a better rate taking money from a signature cash advance. The Visa rate is almost always better than the bank's exchange rate. Fortunately for me, I do not pay any currency exchange fee or fees to my financial institution.

At the time I am writing this post, the Visa exchange rate is 29.20 and the Bangkok Bank TT rate (which is the highest the list on the web site) is 28.86. I don't know which rate you would get exchanging in a foreign currency account. That is about $40 on 100,000 THB.

MSPain

PS Every month I transfer in this manner and it is deposited in my Thai bank account immediately. I know the exchange rate before I make the transfer.

I must admit I am not aware of this Signature Cash Advance or how you can avoid any currency exchange fee or fees to your financial institution. Sounds too good to be true, so how does you card company make its profit? Perhaps you have found the one bank/card company thats likes to serve customers whilst making a loss!

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Signature cash advance means you have to sign, which means they are supposed to verify your identity (done inside the bank, obviously) and the limits are much higher than an ATM withdrawal.

There are a few ways to get no exchange fee, fees credited back, etc. My financial institution happens to not charge when I use my Visa credit card. They do charge if I use my Visa debit card. So I just go online and transfer into my credit card account.

Whether you want to believe me or not I don't really care (not meaning anything negative towards you with that statement... I just don't care whether anyone believes me or not). My last employment was as a manager in a financial institution and one of my responsibilities was plastics. I do know what I get and do not get, and I do not pay currency exchange fees or any other fees for that matter when I withdraw money over the counter (signature required) with my Visa credit card. As I said, I just transfer the amount on line and it covers everything. I asked both Visa Corporate and my financial institution why I was not charged and neither could answer. One day I am sure this will change.

MSPain

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As already said, Money printing. Don't forget that Thailand is a destination for hot money right now. People are fleeing the EU and who'd want assets in ever shrinking dollars, unless you're still a believer in the USA as a safe haven.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

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My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

I was mostly with you till you came to the part about "socialism" being the culprit. Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts. Entitlements did go up in recent years, but only as a result of

1) A massive recession (worldwide, no less) caused by unbridled capitalism that led to high unemployment and so unemployment claims.

2) Expenses on Veterans' care as a result of two avoidable wars that were fought more for capitalist reasons rather than State security.

A large swath of the deficit is a result of

1) Two wars

2) Unsustainable tax cuts

3) Bank rescues

4) Stimulus made necessary by the deep recession

High student debt, which I agree is a ticking time bomb, is also a result of following capitalist policies in education.

This is not the thread to go into this discussion, so I won't. However the result of all the above is as you say—you just have the causes wrong.

T

I don't disagree with you on your points 1-4 above. Those actions ARE socialist in nature. And the #5 you need to add to your list is, "The deadbeats of society in the US have never had it so good; subsidized rent, foodstamps, free medical care, free cable TV and cell phones". And if you are in illegal alien, most of these handouts are still available.

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In 1997 there were shop houses being built everywhere for what reason I do not know there definitely was not a demand for them. Now in 2013 there are short time hotels being built everywhere again I see no demand for them. Also there are many many big box stores being built such as global house you walk into them and there are always more employees than customers how can these stores survive? All these stores and short time hotels are being built with borrowed money. To add to this the government is borrowing 2 trillion baht. I think the Thai economy is going to crash and the baht with it.

Funny thats what I thought. But when I enquired in thai about why all the employees. It turns out that very few of the people standing around are actual employees. This goes for Glabal, home pro, and most other department stores. (the only employees may be the cashiers and people behind the desks)

What they are is representatives from their respective companies, for example phillips, toshiba, etc. Those companies pay for salespersons to push their products. In other words when you ask a person for a recommendation or advice about a product. They will only show you their product. So you have a situation where you have competing sales persons and you can't trust anyone for advice. Look closely they will usually have a logo somewhere on their uniform even though it may say home pro, they will only push their own company's. Very deceiving.

Actually I should start a thread about it.

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I should have added to my post that no one knows if the Thai baht will continue to appreciate or not. However if you have a fairly reasonable amount in a U.S.D. currency account you might consider putting 50% of it into a Thai baht account. Hedge you bets.

I guess i am the minority. I just took a bunch of baht and bought usd.

hhmm.. so you think the USD will bounce back up ? Thai Baht turning around heading down sometime in future ? but when ?

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My view is unbrided money printing by the US Federal Reserve as a primary cuplrit. To the tune of $85 billion per month. And unfathomable budget deficits and even more unfathomable total US public + private debt that consists of the current year to year deficit, cumulative year to year deficits, unfunded future entitlement liabilities such as social security, medicare, public employee pensions, student loan debt (this is much greater danger than most people realize; this debt is higher than total US consume credit card debt). All told, total amount of US debt is somwhere around $70 trillion.

Thailand, by comparison, has a vibrant, diversified export-driven economy anchored in agriculture, manufacturing and tourism; i.e. they have a "real" economy. And their social entitlement spending is much more spartan compared to western countries, plus they stay out of other countries' business (generally) thus putting a cap on military spending.

Don't know what to tell you about converting USD to Thai baht now. The exchange rate has been bouncing off USD/THB lows going back about 5 years. Exchange rate could be volatile for awhile, but eventually the trend will resume.

I think it will eventually punch through those lows and at least test the historical 25THB/1 USD rate prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

I transferred a decent sum of USD back in late 2005 at 41 THB/1USD just before the USD began to tank against the THB. And all my clients have been paying my Thai Ltd. Co. in THB since then. Don't want to crow too much, but quite truthfully, I saw this economic mess developing in the US back in late 2004. Socialism is a wonderful thing until you run out of other people's money to spend and then resort to money printing. It will end very badly.

Just my US$ 0.02...

I was mostly with you till you came to the part about "socialism" being the culprit. Entitlement spending in the US has barely kept pace with inflation while the rich benefited from tax cuts. Entitlements did go up in recent years, but only as a result of

1) A massive recession (worldwide, no less) caused by unbridled capitalism that led to high unemployment and so unemployment claims.

2) Expenses on Veterans' care as a result of two avoidable wars that were fought more for capitalist reasons rather than State security.

A large swath of the deficit is a result of

1) Two wars

2) Unsustainable tax cuts

3) Bank rescues

4) Stimulus made necessary by the deep recession

High student debt, which I agree is a ticking time bomb, is also a result of following capitalist policies in education.

This is not the thread to go into this discussion, so I won't. However the result of all the above is as you say—you just have the causes wrong.

T

I don't disagree with you on your points 1-4 above. Those actions ARE socialist in nature. And the #5 you need to add to your list is, "The deadbeats of society in the US have never had it so good; subsidized rent, foodstamps, free medical care, free cable TV and cell phones". And if you are in illegal alien, most of these handouts are still available.

If USA keeps giving free gifts to those who do not want to work . USA may be the next best place to retire . Just think no more lines at immigration no need for income statments .. McDonalds on every corner. But Im sure one day the hamburger at Mickey Ds will change to a taco and theyll figure out some way to make a bean fry . Oh plus there will be free health care because all the doctors that once charged for thier service will quit working as well. All that will be left is the Obama doctors and they will be too lazy to come to work either sooooo ...

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I should have added to my post that no one knows if the Thai baht will continue to appreciate or not. However if you have a fairly reasonable amount in a U.S.D. currency account you might consider putting 50% of it into a Thai baht account. Hedge you bets.

I guess i am the minority. I just took a bunch of baht and bought usd.

In the short term, ouch! Long term, who knows? You may make a killing.

make a killing ?! .. or .. get killed ?! ... good arguments for and against so far, a tough call.

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I just accidentally made a double post, slow internet, pressed twice, and did not know how to delete the duplicate post, and thus had to edit it.

so how does one delete a post once posted ?? just for future reference if ever needed.

Edited by Cyrus2Ray
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