Do You Consider Bitcoin To Be A Serious Hedging Option?

[RogueLeader]

The world’s biggest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will no longer accept anonymous accounts – the company is determined not to end up the next target of US secret service action.

The Japanese exchange, which claims 80 per cent of all Bitcoin trades, said it would continue to allow Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals but any currency transaction will need ID checks.

The decision will send shockwaves through the bitcoin community which has so far prided itself on protecting anonymity and not co-operating with any government agencies.

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-bans-anonymous-currency-deals/

step 1!

to be continued...

You don't need an Mt.Gox account to trade BC.

[Naam]

The world’s biggest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will no longer accept anonymous accounts – the company is determined not to end up the next target of US secret service action.

The Japanese exchange, which claims 80 per cent of all Bitcoin trades, said it would continue to allow Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals but any currency transaction will need ID checks.

The decision will send shockwaves through the bitcoin community which has so far prided itself on protecting anonymity and not co-operating with any government agencies.

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-bans-anonymous-currency-deals/

step 1!

to be continued...

You don't need an Mt.Gox account to trade BC.

that's why i said "step 1". watch out for next steps.

[Heng]

Realistically though, considering what digital currencies are... and how they can exist and can be traded and transported virtually anywhere... it's unlikely that any central government will be able to ever rein it in.

Compare to the failed global war on narcotics... they can't even rein in a situation that involves large volume physical goods (and not to mention often equally large volumes of cash).

[Sophon]

Realistically though, considering what digital currencies are... and how they can exist and can be traded and transported virtually anywhere... it's unlikely that any central government will be able to ever rein it in.

Compare to the failed global war on narcotics... they can't even rein in a situation that involves large volume physical goods (and not to mention often equally large volumes of cash).

I don't think its comparable at all. If central governments decide to do something about digital currencies they don't need to "rein them in". All they have to do is make people lose confidence in the currencies and these schemes will quickly collapse. Remember, there is nothing backing these currencies other than peoples faith in them.

We live in a physical world, and digital currencies are worthless unless they at some point can be changed into "real" money. A very public action by the authorities to freeze real world bank accounts connected to e.g. Bitcoin transactions (while investigating for money laundering), and people will be clambering all over each other to try and get their money out of the digital currency.

Sophon

[farang000999]

Bit Coins is a greater fool mechanism. People are interested in it because they think it will appreciate it. Everyone is buying now to sell later.

The gov can't stop drugs because demand never decreases.

Bit Coin must be traded into real world fiat money before it can be used for anything besides a tiny handful of e-commerce businesses.

There are already a bunch of Bit Coin copycats. So you are right that the gov can't stop people from endlessly creating a new Bit Coin, it is just that there will be no real demand for the virtual currency - only people who wish to participate in a ponzi scheme.

[farang000999]

The biggest bit coin retailer has done a whopping $500,000 worth of sales... in a virtual currency worth more than a billion.

Here is a glimpse into the minds of Bit Coiners:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158972.0

Buying Bit Coins because they are going to appreciate 100000%

-----

Edited June 4, 2013 by farang000999

[RogueLeader]

Bit Coins is a greater fool mechanism. People are interested in it because they think it will appreciate it. Everyone is buying now to sell later.

The gov can't stop drugs because demand never decreases.

Bit Coin must be traded into real world fiat money before it can be used for anything besides a tiny handful of e-commerce businesses.

There are already a bunch of Bit Coin copycats. So you are right that the gov can't stop people from endlessly creating a new Bit Coin, it is just that there will be no real demand for the virtual currency - only people who wish to participate in a ponzi scheme.

You're wrong on each count. Sorry.

[farang000999]

So what are the kiddie porn guys going to do with all those bit coins when they can't anonymously trade them into real money? Buy drugs with them? And what are the drug dealers going to buy?

[CitizenSmith]

Following the closure of Liberty Reserve, another well-known Bitcoin exchange has been closed down by the U.S. Government. The domain has been seized by the United States Global Illicit Financial Team, with a warrant obtained in the district of Southern New York...

http://www.coindesk.com/wm-center-bitcoin-exchange-seized-by-u-s-government/

[RogueLeader]

So what are the kiddie porn guys going to do with all those bit coins when they can't anonymously trade them into real money? Buy drugs with them? And what are the drug dealers going to buy?

Use your imagination.

You really do not understand digital currency at all.

[farang000999]

A couple of smart guys have convinced a bunch of dumb people to trade their real money for monopoly money under the pretense that even dumber people will pay an even higher price for it?

[farang000999]

here is a simple question: Why should I buy bit coin?

I can't use bit coin to buy anything.

I don't need to launder money.

It is less safe than real money.

the only reason to buy bit coin is if someone else will buy it from me at a higher price. a straight up ponzi scheme.

-- Again, stated for the 10,000,000th time... the global stock market outpaces the depreciation of fiat money, so for non-morons, monetary inflation/currency devaluation/artificially created money is not a problem, it is only a problem for the Ron Paul fan club.

[dave111223]

here is a simple question: Why should I buy bit coin?

I can't use bit coin to buy anything.

If you don't want to buy anything with bitcoins then you should not purchase them.

But if you did want to buy something with Bitcoins, such as a domain name, website hosting, etc... (http://thebitcoincatalog.com/) then you would buy them.

the only reason to buy bit coin is if someone else will buy it from me at a higher price. a straight up ponzi scheme.

....the global stock market outpaces the depreciation of fiat money...

So...what's the reason for buying stocks?

Edited June 4, 2013 by dave111223

[dave111223]

Following the closure of Liberty Reserve, another well-known Bitcoin exchange has been closed down by the U.S. Government. The domain has been seized by the United States Global Illicit Financial Team, with a warrant obtained in the district of Southern New York...

http://www.coindesk.com/wm-center-bitcoin-exchange-seized-by-u-s-government/

http://www.ecardone.com/

Looks like we should get used to seeing this:

Apparently the Southern District of New York now rules the world; kneel before you new rulers.

Edited June 4, 2013 by dave111223

[Heng]

Realistically though, considering what digital currencies are... and how they can exist and can be traded and transported virtually anywhere... it's unlikely that any central government will be able to ever rein it in.

Compare to the failed global war on narcotics... they can't even rein in a situation that involves large volume physical goods (and not to mention often equally large volumes of cash).

I don't think its comparable at all. If central governments decide to do something about digital currencies they don't need to "rein them in". All they have to do is make people lose confidence in the currencies and these schemes will quickly collapse. Remember, there is nothing backing these currencies other than peoples faith in them.

We live in a physical world, and digital currencies are worthless unless they at some point can be changed into "real" money. A very public action by the authorities to freeze real world bank accounts connected to e.g. Bitcoin transactions (while investigating for money laundering), and people will be clambering all over each other to try and get their money out of the digital currency.

Sophon

What the government won't be able to do (again, all IMO) is get rid of the 'demand' to illegally transfer money... just like the demand for narcotics. Okay, so they go after all of the official exchanges first. How do they then target the black market exchanges? Any kind of foreign exchange shop, from the mom and pop shops to the wholesale operations that don't advertise can be a Bitcoin exchange... it's just one more currency to add to the list. And actually, a good portion of the world's wealth is already more digital and physical. I'm sure 'they' will try... but it'll be about on par with trying to make people lose confidence in offshore banks in third world countries. Sure, some people will be scared away... but well, they're most certainly still there and thriving.

It's all academic of course.... with digital currencies though, I think we'll be able to see it all 'happen' pretty quickly either way.

[farang000999]

There is a demand to illegally transfer money but you still need a vehicle to do so with intrinsic value, which Bitcoins do not possess.

Diamonds, gold, artwork, expensive wine, US dollars. These have intrinsic value.

Make believe internet money does not work because eventually everyone wakes up and realizes that you can't actually do anything with Bit Coins besides donate to Wikileaks or buy a Word Press blog or get web hosting.

So if I am a drug lord I need to pray that the ponzi scheme does not collapse before I can make my necessary transfers.

Edited June 5, 2013 by farang000999

[farang000999]

Following the closure of Liberty Reserve, another well-known Bitcoin exchange has been closed down by the U.S. Government. The domain has been seized by the United States Global Illicit Financial Team, with a warrant obtained in the district of Southern New York...

http://www.coindesk.com/wm-center-bitcoin-exchange-seized-by-u-s-government/

http://www.ecardone.com/

Looks like we should get used to seeing this:

Apparently the Southern District of New York now rules the world; kneel before you new rulers.

Last month, well-known VC Chris Dixon said that Bitcoin represented the 3rd great era of currency (first gold, then fiat, then math-based).

Here's the problem: Fiat currency has intrinsic value. Bitcoin doesn't.

There's a popular meme going around that fiat currencies (like the

dollar, the British pound, the euro, and the yen) have no intrinsic

value, and that they're only accepted because they're accepted, and that

at some point, people will see through the "illusion" of the value of

paper money, and realize that wealth lies somewhere else. Usually this

argument is made by gold bugs.

But fiat currencies have tremendous intrinsic value because governments say they do. That's why they're called fiat currencies. They have value by government fiat.

This truth might be annoying, but the fact of the matter is that we

live in a world of laws, where governments have armies, and can imprison

you if you don't pay taxes. And every transaction that you do is taxed

in some way, meaning that to operate in any practical matter in this

world means transacting in U.S. dollars.

So the U.S. dollar isn't just important because other people think it

is. The U.S. dollar is important, because the world's strongest entity,

with the full force of the U.S. army, the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, and

various local authorities with guns demands that you pay them in U.S.

dollars. That's not faith. That's the law. Sorry.

Even outside of the requirement to pay taxes in U.S. dollars, the

Federal Reserve system has established the dollar as the unit of

currency for banking in the United States. So if you want to be plugged

into the banking system at all — which is a requirement for virtually

all individuals — you have to use U.S. dollars.

So instantly, anyone who says the U.S. dollar is backed by "faith" or

an "illusion" has no concept of the sheer force behind the currency.

This isn't true of Bitcoins at all.

It's true that there's a scarcity to them — there's only a finite

amount and there's a limit to how many there will ever be — but scarcity

alone does not give something lasting value.

After all, I could create JoeCoins, and say that I will only issue

100. But it's unlikely that anybody would give me even a penny for one.

And I can't force anyone to use them, because I don't have my own army

or police force or my own set of laws.

Nobody in the Bitcoin world has the power to compel usage and unlike,

say, a commodity, a Bitcoin provides no beauty or functional use

outside of that of a trading vehicle.

This Bitcoin, unlike fiat currency (which is backed by the force of

law) or commodity-based monies (which have some intrinsic value via use

or beauty) is only of value because someone else will accept it, or pay

more for it than what you bought it for.

Meanwhile, any hope that merchants would be willing to regularly

transact in Bitcoin is blown apart by the recent volatility, which makes

it tremendously risky to engage in anything other than ultra-short-term

transactions. You'd certainly never have someone perform a service

priced in Bitcoin lasting any length of time, since you'd have no idea

whether you were paying the person $20,000, $100,000 or $1 million.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoins-have-no-value-2013-4#ixzz2VIbIBF2k

[dave111223]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoins-have-no-value-2013-4#ixzz2VIbIBF2k

So US Dollars are better because people with lots of guns are forcing you to use them?

(P.S. "Bitcoin's a ponzi scheme!")

Edited June 5, 2013 by dave111223

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoins-have-no-value-2013-4#ixzz2VIbIBF2k

So US Dollars are better because people with lots of guns are forcing you to use them?

(P.S. "Bitcoin's a ponzi scheme!")

Among other areas of leadership like technology, democracy, human rights, medicine, arts and yes military leadership.

The USA invented the internet to make all this possible.

If the world was waiting for something like the internet from another country then we would all be sitting around sucking our thumbs.

[dave111223]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoins-have-no-value-2013-4#ixzz2VIbIBF2k

So US Dollars are better because people with lots of guns are forcing you to use them?

(P.S. "Bitcoin's a ponzi scheme!")

Among other areas of leadership like technology, democracy, human rights, medicine, arts and yes military leadership.

The USA invented the internet to make all this possible.

If the world was waiting for something like the internet from another country then we would all be sitting around sucking our thumbs.

Sigh...

As an Englishman growing up in America, your sentiments bring me back to the oft repeated statement I'd hear of "We kicked your ass in Worldwar 2"

Edited June 5, 2013 by dave111223

[Sophon]

Realistically though, considering what digital currencies are... and how they can exist and can be traded and transported virtually anywhere... it's unlikely that any central government will be able to ever rein it in.

Compare to the failed global war on narcotics... they can't even rein in a situation that involves large volume physical goods (and not to mention often equally large volumes of cash).

I don't think its comparable at all. If central governments decide to do something about digital currencies they don't need to "rein them in". All they have to do is make people lose confidence in the currencies and these schemes will quickly collapse. Remember, there is nothing backing these currencies other than peoples faith in them.

We live in a physical world, and digital currencies are worthless unless they at some point can be changed into "real" money. A very public action by the authorities to freeze real world bank accounts connected to e.g. Bitcoin transactions (while investigating for money laundering), and people will be clambering all over each other to try and get their money out of the digital currency.

Sophon

What the government won't be able to do (again, all IMO) is get rid of the 'demand' to illegally transfer money... just like the demand for narcotics. Okay, so they go after all of the official exchanges first. How do they then target the black market exchanges? Any kind of foreign exchange shop, from the mom and pop shops to the wholesale operations that don't advertise can be a Bitcoin exchange... it's just one more currency to add to the list. And actually, a good portion of the world's wealth is already more digital and physical. I'm sure 'they' will try... but it'll be about on par with trying to make people lose confidence in offshore banks in third world countries. Sure, some people will be scared away... but well, they're most certainly still there and thriving.

It's all academic of course.... with digital currencies though, I think we'll be able to see it all 'happen' pretty quickly either way.

But schemes like Bitcoin cannot exist if only people doing illegal transfers use them. The illegal transfers has to be hidden in a mass of legal transactions for it to make any sense to use them for illegal transactions.

Sophon

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoins-have-no-value-2013-4#ixzz2VIbIBF2k

So US Dollars are better because people with lots of guns are forcing you to use them?

(P.S. "Bitcoin's a ponzi scheme!")

Among other areas of leadership like technology, democracy, human rights, medicine, arts and yes military leadership.

The USA invented the internet to make all this possible.

If the world was waiting for something like the internet from another country then we would all be sitting around sucking our thumbs.

Sigh...

As an Englishman growing up in America, your sentiments bring me back to the oft repeated statement I'd hear of "We kicked your ass in Worldwar 2"

Saved the UK from the Nazi's sure. Kicked the UK ass? never heard that before.

Maybe you have ear wax or something

[dave111223]

Among other areas of leadership like technology, democracy, human rights, medicine, arts and yes military leadership.

The USA invented the internet to make all this possible.

If the world was waiting for something like the internet from another country then we would all be sitting around sucking our thumbs.

Sigh...

As an Englishman growing up in America, your sentiments bring me back to the oft repeated statement I'd hear of "We kicked your ass in Worldwar 2"

Saved the UK from the Nazi's sure. Kicked the UK ass? never heard that before.

Maybe you have ear wax or something

Double Sigh...

[farang000999]

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/31/from-bitcoin-to-amazon-coins-a-guide-to-virtual-currencies/

Infinite coins.

[RogueLeader]

here is a simple question: Why should I buy bit coin?

I can't use bit coin to buy anything.

I don't need to launder money.

It is less safe than real money.

the only reason to buy bit coin is if someone else will buy it from me at a higher price. a straight up ponzi scheme.

-- Again, stated for the 10,000,000th time... the global stock market outpaces the depreciation of fiat money, so for non-morons, monetary inflation/currency devaluation/artificially created money is not a problem, it is only a problem for the Ron Paul fan club.

You can't use bitcoins to buy anything? I can. Why are you having problems?

[pdebuck456]

Following the closure of Liberty Reserve, another well-known Bitcoin exchange has been closed down by the U.S. Government. The domain has been seized by the United States Global Illicit Financial Team, with a warrant obtained in the district of Southern New York...

http://www.coindesk.com/wm-center-bitcoin-exchange-seized-by-u-s-government/

http://www.ecardone.com/

Looks like we should get used to seeing this:

Apparently the Southern District of New York now rules the world; kneel before you new rulers.

Both above exchangers have been closed down because they were primarily Liberty Reserve exchangers.

They recently started to exchange bitcoins as well, as, well, most of the other exchangers started doing so as well!

Edited June 5, 2013 by pdebuck456

[pdebuck456]

Following the closure of Liberty Reserve, another well-known Bitcoin exchange has been closed down by the U.S. Government. The domain has been seized by the United States Global Illicit Financial Team, with a warrant obtained in the district of Southern New York...

http://www.coindesk.com/wm-center-bitcoin-exchange-seized-by-u-s-government/

http://www.ecardone.com/

Looks like we should get used to seeing this:

Apparently the Southern District of New York now rules the world; kneel before you new rulers.

Last month, well-known VC Chris Dixon said that Bitcoin represented the 3rd great era of currency (first gold, then fiat, then math-based).

Here's the problem: Fiat currency has intrinsic value. Bitcoin doesn't.

There's a popular meme going around that fiat currencies (like the

dollar, the British pound, the euro, and the yen) have no intrinsic

value, and that they're only accepted because they're accepted, and that

at some point, people will see through the "illusion" of the value of

paper money, and realize that wealth lies somewhere else. Usually this

argument is made by gold bugs.

But fiat currencies have tremendous intrinsic value because governments say they do. That's why they're called fiat currencies. They have value by government fiat.

This truth might be annoying, but the fact of the matter is that we

live in a world of laws, where governments have armies, and can imprison

you if you don't pay taxes. And every transaction that you do is taxed

in some way, meaning that to operate in any practical matter in this

world means transacting in U.S. dollars.

So the U.S. dollar isn't just important because other people think it

is. The U.S. dollar is important, because the world's strongest entity,

with the full force of the U.S. army, the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, and

various local authorities with guns demands that you pay them in U.S.

dollars. That's not faith. That's the law. Sorry.

Even outside of the requirement to pay taxes in U.S. dollars, the

Federal Reserve system has established the dollar as the unit of

currency for banking in the United States. So if you want to be plugged

into the banking system at all — which is a requirement for virtually

all individuals — you have to use U.S. dollars.

So instantly, anyone who says the U.S. dollar is backed by "faith" or

an "illusion" has no concept of the sheer force behind the currency.

This isn't true of Bitcoins at all.

It's true that there's a scarcity to them — there's only a finite

amount and there's a limit to how many there will ever be — but scarcity

alone does not give something lasting value.

After all, I could create JoeCoins, and say that I will only issue

100. But it's unlikely that anybody would give me even a penny for one.

And I can't force anyone to use them, because I don't have my own army

or police force or my own set of laws.

Nobody in the Bitcoin world has the power to compel usage and unlike,

say, a commodity, a Bitcoin provides no beauty or functional use

outside of that of a trading vehicle.

This Bitcoin, unlike fiat currency (which is backed by the force of

law) or commodity-based monies (which have some intrinsic value via use

or beauty) is only of value because someone else will accept it, or pay

more for it than what you bought it for.

Meanwhile, any hope that merchants would be willing to regularly

transact in Bitcoin is blown apart by the recent volatility, which makes

it tremendously risky to engage in anything other than ultra-short-term

transactions. You'd certainly never have someone perform a service

priced in Bitcoin lasting any length of time, since you'd have no idea

whether you were paying the person $20,000, $100,000 or $1 million.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoins-have-no-value-2013-4#ixzz2VIbIBF2k

Bitcoins have no intrinsic value, sure thing.

Neither had Liberty Reserve Dollars, but yet in a few years over 6 Billion dollars worth of trade was done with them!

Believe me, the intrinsic value was in the anonymity of the financial vehicle. With Bitcoin the same can be said (you can simply buy and sell them cash)...

Sure, bitcoin is very volatile, but I'd say every currency can be volatile. Even US$.

The only currency relatively non volatile is the currency used in the place you live, and then only if your income is in the same currency as your main expenditures.

Live in Thailand and get paid in Thai Baht...

All the rest, nobody knows and nobody can predict.

Thai people who "invested" in 1000 US$ late 2009 had to pay give or take 36,000 Baht for it.

This investment has "appreciated" to a tad over 30,000 Baht now, and a few months ago was closer to 28,000.

I'd call that volatile as well!

Edited June 5, 2013 by pdebuck456

[pdebuck456]

But to the OP, hedging in Bitcoin, or using it as an investment? Long term, no way.

Treat it like a daytrader would a pennystock, maybe. Don't keep overnight as way to risky...

But I guess the spread is way to big to make anything doing that.

In my opinion, Bitcoin is like Liberty reserve. But technically a hell of a lot smarter. There is no central system. The whole thing is basically ran by home computers, who by solving complex calculations ensure the security, the actual transfers and the supply. Probably by now millions and millions of home (and not so home) computers, since people who dedicate their computers to do those calculations get rewarded (in bitcoins of course).

How would they ever stop bitcoin? They can't. They can stop big exchanges like Mt. gox, but they can never ever stop small scale exchanges run out of a small shophouse. There's plenty bitcoins around, plenty people having them and willing to both sell and buy them as long as they can make some money out the buy/sell spread. There is no "central electronic" storage to take down, like they did with LR, when suddenly everybody who owned LR$ could not access them anymore.

They cannot take away the bitcoins you own. Never. They might make it harder to buy and sell them, but hey, criminals can be smart and creative as well!

If liberty reserve did not have a central system like they had in Costa rica, they only thing the feds could have gone after were the gazillion big and small exchanges around the world. Wouldn't have slowed LR down that much, to many criminals were using it and would have kept it right underground and alive. Much like they virtually cannot kill torrents, they can only try to kill the search engines...

Edited June 5, 2013 by pdebuck456

[dave111223]

Sure, bitcoin is very volatile, but I'd say every currency can be volatile. Even US$.

The only currency relatively non volatile is the currency used in the place you live, and then only if your income is in the same currency as your main expenditures.

Live in Thailand and get paid in Thai Baht...

All the rest, nobody knows and nobody can predict.

Very true. I learned to live with currency volatility a long time ago, when I first came here in 2005 i was getting 42THB/USD (happy days). 2 years later and it was down to 30

[farang000999]

36 to 28 over 4 years versus down 75% in a day.