173 Deaths In First Three Days Of Songkran

[DocN]

Let me get this straight, just for the record: if you have an accident and you die on spot...you are a traffic casualty and go into the statistics as such.

If you have an accident and die 1 day later at the hospital...you are not!

...and some "experts" here still believe in the Thai- official statistics, as if it where gospel!

[youngXpat]

I've been driving around all weekend on my motorbike in Chiang Mai. Sure, I get about 30 buckets dumped on me, and even some good hits when traveling 60-80km/hr on my way down to Hang Dong, but nothing much worse than a slight push. Bike actually seems more stable from hits when I'm going faster, though my side might not agree

Best one was when a Thai walked out into the middle of the Super Highway here to make sure I can came to a stop. I was having fun, so I didn't bother to go around him. He shook my hand, dumped a lot of water on me, and offered me and my girlfriend a sip of beer. Not sure I've ever been offered a beer while driving anywhere, but I enjoyed the experience and politely declined.

Only other comment is that I really don't mind the Thai's who dump water on me. It's the foreigners who seem to be the most drunk and stupid of all the people I've seen. Maybe ban the foreigners.

Best idea yet. Ban the foreigners. They make more trouble than anyone. At the

very least, give them a personality test and a grooming test.

Foreigners often have very poor manners. Become very obnoxious when drunk,

not to mention they are often fat, ugly and smell like a goat.

But the topic isn't about obnoxious Farangs, it's about 173 deaths on the first 3 days of Songkran. Maybe you are trying to say foreigners are responsible for most road deaths, again I disagree. As said in the reporting, most deaths are due to driving whilst drunk or speeding. Hardly any foreigners (tourists anyway) drive while they are here.

[ThomasBird67]

I believe those high numbers of casualties during a holiday season are unique in the world.

Google "holiday death statistics" The toll here is relatively small when compared to other countries, for example, the 8 day new years period in South Africa this year, over 1,400 died. The US has over 45,000 vehicle deaths every year (about 5 times the population than Thailand).

So you're comparing Thailand abominable holiday death toll to the road deaths of a country of 300 million people for a 1 year period? Seriously? How about you throw in Thailand's one year death for road accidents as well and see what that number is.

[EyesWideOpen]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

Actually the math is pretty simple. Take official numbers and roughly triple them to see what is actually happening. Surprised you had trouble with that concept as your posts generally seem fairly erudite ....

My cowering at home is actually to protect my eyes from drunks trying to blast my face with the " banned" pipe water guns.

Edited April 15, 2013 by EyesWideOpen

[NongKhaiKid]

How do this year's figures so far match-up to last yr's..?? Or do we have to wait till the end of the '7 days'?? (no comparison seems to have been made yet).

The Monday edition of the Bkk Post reports the government fears the final figures will top last year's " record " levels so the Interior Minister has ordered provincial authorities to step up preventative measures. However he has also stated that there will be no punishment for failure which is a very Thai cop out and might encourage some to do little or nothing other than have a couple of excuses handy. Come Thursday morning as the national statistics start to be compiled I wonder if the truth will be told especially if worse than last year considering all the pre-Songkrn hot air from officialdom

It might be a bit early for them to guess if the numbers will top last year but if they do it will be very sad since last year the number went up considerably from the previous year. One thing that might be skewing the numbers right now is the first three days this year (173 Dead) were Thursday, Friday and Saturday while the first 3-days last year (144 Dead) were Wed., Thurs & Friday. However, the fact it did fall closer to the weekend this year could mean more people traveling and with the big increase in the vehicle sales the past year it might mean more people are choosing to drive themselves and their family ... not to mention the numbers last year were up after a year that had an incredible drop. My guess is the number will fall just short of last year.

Also, last years numbers were a bit interesting too as compared to the previous year in that there were actually less reported accidents last year but about 50 more fatalities.

.

Bottom line very sad if there is another year of moving in the wrong direction.

Edit: Last year wasn't a "record" number and believe it was the 2nd lowest number in the last decade.

I believe these numbers were based on counting 10 Days of Songkran

2003: 668

2004: 654

2005: 522

2006: 476

These numbers are definitely counting 7 Days of Songkran as is the standard now

2007: 361

2008: 368

2009: 373

2010: 361

2011: 271

2012: 320

Wow, great research ! My problem is how the government shifts the goalposts to suit as in - X days are holidays but not official holidays so not holidays to be counted for accident figures. Oh my brain hurts

[Thai at Heart]

Why did they try and ban throwing water from the back of pick-up trucks?... I don't see that that was ever a real problem.

The real problem is throwing water at moving motorbikes, I have been on one myself and had freezing cold water thrown in my face, it's very very dangerous!

Why don't they just enforce a law that says u cannot throw water to or from a moving motorbike, 1000 baht fine (money to the police). That will give them some motivation to work during Songkran.

They should certainly ban bikes in the main water throwing areas, and then ban throwing water from trucks on main highways.

The only dangerous thing I've seen is bikes speeding through low speed traffic on the city where I live. That is main issue.

[Nisa]

How do this year's figures so far match-up to last yr's..?? Or do we have to wait till the end of the '7 days'?? (no comparison seems to have been made yet).

The Monday edition of the Bkk Post reports the government fears the final figures will top last year's " record " levels so the Interior Minister has ordered provincial authorities to step up preventative measures. However he has also stated that there will be no punishment for failure which is a very Thai cop out and might encourage some to do little or nothing other than have a couple of excuses handy. Come Thursday morning as the national statistics start to be compiled I wonder if the truth will be told especially if worse than last year considering all the pre-Songkrn hot air from officialdom

It might be a bit early for them to guess if the numbers will top last year but if they do it will be very sad since last year the number went up considerably from the previous year. One thing that might be skewing the numbers right now is the first three days this year (173 Dead) were Thursday, Friday and Saturday while the first 3-days last year (144 Dead) were Wed., Thurs & Friday. However, the fact it did fall closer to the weekend this year could mean more people traveling and with the big increase in the vehicle sales the past year it might mean more people are choosing to drive themselves and their family ... not to mention the numbers last year were up after a year that had an incredible drop. My guess is the number will fall just short of last year.

Also, last years numbers were a bit interesting too as compared to the previous year in that there were actually less reported accidents last year but about 50 more fatalities.

.

Bottom line very sad if there is another year of moving in the wrong direction.

Edit: Last year wasn't a "record" number and believe it was the 2nd lowest number in the last decade.

I believe these numbers were based on counting 10 Days of Songkran

2003: 668

2004: 654

2005: 522

2006: 476

These numbers are definitely counting 7 Days of Songkran as is the standard now

2007: 361

2008: 368

2009: 373

2010: 361

2011: 271

2012: 320

Wow, great research ! My problem is how the government shifts the goalposts to suit as in - X days are holidays but not official holidays so not holidays to be counted for accident figures. Oh my brain hurts

I am not sure why they ever counted 10 days but I think the 7-days (instead of just 3) is to make sure the weekend is included since the numbers are higher then and it makes comparing year to year more accurate regardless of when the holiday falls.. Plus with Songkran I believe the recognized days (for taking off work) is the following work days if the holiday falls on a weekend but the days of celebration (water) stay the same.

Edit: Actually ... If the holiday starts on a Monday then there are going to be huge number of folks on the road the previous weekend as well as the next weekend. Maybe that is why they counted 10 days and were trying to get the numbers from the weekend before to the weekend after.

Edited April 15, 2013 by Nisa

[metisdead]

A nonsense obfuscation post of a baiting nature has been removed.

[Nisa]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

Actually the math is pretty simple. Take official numbers and roughly triple them to see what is actually happening. Surprised you had trouble with that concept as your posts generally seem fairly erudite ....

My cowering at home is actually to protect my eyes from drunks trying to blast my face with the " banned" pipe water guns.

Why would you want to compare the WHO numbers from their last report when ...

WHO doesn't estimate the number of deaths over Songkran

The last WHO report is the first where the numbers dramatically differed from the Thai numbers (minus adding about 40% for deaths within 30 days) and they even state in their last report they didn't have certain data from Thailand and they have little confidence in their estimate for Thailand in this report. A logical person might assume that deaths didn't triple during the year of this last report especially considering all their estimates start out based on the number of reported deaths from Thai officials and according to them deaths were down.

Who adjust numbers to represent deaths within 30-days to make all countries comparable since many have different periods that they report on but the numbers obviously given on a daily basis for deaths each day over Songkran are for those killed that day.

If you compare Thai numbers to Thai numbers then you are comparing apple to apples because the data collection is the same and then if you want to take the number of increased deaths over these given days and multiply them by whatever factor you want to come up with number of dead over 30-days or 5-years after the accident and/or to account for any disbelief you have in the numbers due to errors, lies, conspiracies or any other reasons the numbers could be off.

If you didn't like what the trends showed in my original post so be it but the trends were based on comparing apples to apples and as I clearly stated a number of times it was to view trends and not actual death count since they can always be disputed and what is more important is if things are improving or not and the way to know this is to compare apple to apples to see a trend and not base your data on numbers that don't exist (WHOs number for Songkran) or base numbers on an estimate from a report whose author states little confidence in their number for that report and whose numbers are grossly different than years before when they did state 95% confidence.

Links:

http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78256/1/9789241564564_eng.pdf

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

Edited April 15, 2013 by Nisa

[jimbeam1]

Could happen anywhere! Leave if you don't like it! We're guests here!!

We are paying guests

jb1

[edwinchester]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

Actually the math is pretty simple. Take official numbers and roughly triple them to see what is actually happening. Surprised you had trouble with that concept as your posts generally seem fairly erudite ....

My cowering at home is actually to protect my eyes from drunks trying to blast my face with the " banned" pipe water guns.

Why would you want to compare the WHO numbers from their last report when ...

WHO doesn't estimate the number of deaths over Songkran

The last WHO report is the first where the numbers dramatically differed from the Thai numbers (minus adding about 40% for deaths within 30 days) and they even state in their last report they didn't have certain data from Thailand and they have little confidence in their estimate for Thailand in this report. A logical person might assume that deaths didn't triple during the year of this last report especially considering all their estimates start out based on the number of reported deaths from Thai officials and according to them deaths were down.

Who adjust numbers to represent deaths within 30-days to make all countries comparable since many have different periods that they report on but the numbers obviously given on a daily basis for deaths each day over Songkran are for those killed that day.

If you compare Thai numbers to Thai numbers then you are comparing apple to apples because the data collection is the same and then if you want to take the number of increased deaths over these given days and multiply them by whatever factor you want to come up with number of dead over 30-days or 5-years after the accident and/or to account for any disbelief you have in the numbers due to errors, lies, conspiracies or any other reasons the numbers could be off.

If you didn't like what the trends showed in my original post so be it but the trends were based on comparing apples to apples and as I clearly stated a number of times it was to view trends and not actual death count since they can always be disputed and what is more important is if things are improving or not and the way to know this is to compare apple to apples to see a trend and not base your data on numbers that don't exist (WHOs number for Songkran) or base numbers on an estimate from a report whose author states little confidence in their number for that report and whose numbers are grossly different than years before when they did state 95% confidence.

Links:

http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78256/1/9789241564564_eng.pdf

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/626230-road-tolls-in-thailand-among-highest-in-the-world/

If you read this thread the Thai Interior Minister says that Thai annual road deaths are about 26000, inline with the WHO figure.

[DocN]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

Actually the math is pretty simple. Take official numbers and roughly triple them to see what is actually happening. Surprised you had trouble with that concept as your posts generally seem fairly erudite ....

My cowering at home is actually to protect my eyes from drunks trying to blast my face with the " banned" pipe water guns.

Why would you want to compare the WHO numbers from their last report when ...

WHO doesn't estimate the number of deaths over Songkran

The last WHO report is the first where the numbers dramatically differed from the Thai numbers (minus adding about 40% for deaths within 30 days) and they even state in their last report they didn't have certain data from Thailand and they have little confidence in their estimate for Thailand in this report. A logical person might assume that deaths didn't triple during the year of this last report especially considering all their estimates start out based on the number of reported deaths from Thai officials and according to them deaths were down.

Who adjust numbers to represent deaths within 30-days to make all countries comparable since many have different periods that they report on but the numbers obviously given on a daily basis for deaths each day over Songkran are for those killed that day.

If you compare Thai numbers to Thai numbers then you are comparing apple to apples because the data collection is the same and then if you want to take the number of increased deaths over these given days and multiply them by whatever factor you want to come up with number of dead over 30-days or 5-years after the accident and/or to account for any disbelief you have in the numbers due to errors, lies, conspiracies or any other reasons the numbers could be off.

If you didn't like what the trends showed in my original post so be it but the trends were based on comparing apples to apples and as I clearly stated a number of times it was to view trends and not actual death count since they can always be disputed and what is more important is if things are improving or not and the way to know this is to compare apple to apples to see a trend and not base your data on numbers that don't exist (WHOs number for Songkran) or base numbers on an estimate from a report whose author states little confidence in their number for that report and whose numbers are grossly different than years before when they did state 95% confidence.

Links:

http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78256/1/9789241564564_eng.pdf

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

What TF is your problem?

Songkran Death Toll 29 Percent More Than Last Year

What are you even argueing?

Even if it were down by 30 % -which you can easily achieve by moving the goalpost (only count the ones dead on spot....only count he ones dead within 30 minutes after an accident...only count the ones dead 15 minutes after an accident....Winston Churchill:"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself")- it is still way too much, it is carnage and it is the due to lax driving- tests, no law enforcement and plain stupidity.

And there is NOTHING, that you can say or argue on end, that will change that.

It is a rate that is way to high for 4, 7 or 11 days of a festival and it was too high last year or 3 years ago and it will be too high next year and the year after that, because nothing will be done about the deciding factors, because no one cares!

And it is people like you, who always look for the lowest possible number to find anywhere and to look for apologies and who believe numbers that are issued by a corrupt, face saving government (by whatever party) that just needs to shine a good light on abysmally bad policies and even more abysmal law enforcement, that makes these clowns look right in their stupidity and ignorance of the peoples concerns.

Yeah, yeah...I am just a guest here...blah blah....

....come to think of it: why do I even bother?

You are obviously wiser than all of us on any subject!

But here: those are the people, who's numbers you believe!

"Dr Chonlanan Srikaew, a deputy public health minister, said this year's

accidents were more severe than last year. Of the 1,321 seriously

injured, 67 per cent died at the scene and 43 per cent in hospital

emergency rooms."

So there are 110% of all injured dead!

That is some number, huh!?

Edited April 15, 2013 by DocN

[apetley]

Dieing twice, that's reincarnation for you.

Edited April 15, 2013 by apetley

[silent]

Could happen anywhere! Leave if you don't like it! We're guests here!!

So?

C'mon folks. Already self confessed Lady Bird clone

[Mosha]

If you believe the Thai head count. "Houston we have a problem." Trat 0 deaths on the roads.

[Felt 35]

What surprise me is that the numbers discussed in this tread regarding fatalities at Songkran and New Year got reduced to the half over the night after the exile man and his family took over the control of this country in 2001. You know the one who straight in the face to WHO said no birdflu in Thailand when at the same time many people was deadly ill in hospitals or not to forget the Tsunami which the exile-man Government in a emergency meeting early morning 26. December 2004 decided not to warn the coastal cities in the south because it could damage the tourism industry!

All well if the numbers really are reduced but can anyone tell me to have seen any regulations (which actually help) regarding traffic safety here over the last 20 years? I have unfortunately not!

I am not sure about numbers going in half in 2001 since the yearly numbers from 2001 to 2006 (Thaksin) actually went up.

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

*** wouldn't concentrate too much on the numbers since they can be argued all day but rather the trend from year to year since the same methodology is being used to come up with the numbers. Even if you increase them tenfold the trend is still going to be the same. ***

The bigger question might be what has happened to cause the numbers to go down so much since 2009.

As a whole it is only logical that the numbers are going to trend down as they do pretty much across the globe and it kind of makes sense that Thailand's numbers might go down at a faster rate than more developed nations since Thailand is modernizing at a much faster pace because for so long it was way behind these countries when it came to issues like road safety.

Some of the reasons for the decline are obviously safer automobiles and more use of safety helmets & safety belts as well as improved roadways, education and enforcement.

Even in a country like the US where enforcement and road safety has been high for a long time they too have seen a big drop in the last decade.

< < < < Off topic obfuscation information removed > > > >

*** Again ... just to be clear I am speaking about trends and not concerned with actual numbers since they make no difference if the method used to compile them each year is the s

Thai Department Land transport statistic as you know the land transport office is also responsible for issuing of driving license`s in Thailand

[Nisa]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

Actually the math is pretty simple. Take official numbers and roughly triple them to see what is actually happening. Surprised you had trouble with that concept as your posts generally seem fairly erudite ....

My cowering at home is actually to protect my eyes from drunks trying to blast my face with the " banned" pipe water guns.

Why would you want to compare the WHO numbers from their last report when ...

WHO doesn't estimate the number of deaths over Songkran

The last WHO report is the first where the numbers dramatically differed from the Thai numbers (minus adding about 40% for deaths within 30 days) and they even state in their last report they didn't have certain data from Thailand and they have little confidence in their estimate for Thailand in this report. A logical person might assume that deaths didn't triple during the year of this last report especially considering all their estimates start out based on the number of reported deaths from Thai officials and according to them deaths were down.

Who adjust numbers to represent deaths within 30-days to make all countries comparable since many have different periods that they report on but the numbers obviously given on a daily basis for deaths each day over Songkran are for those killed that day.

If you compare Thai numbers to Thai numbers then you are comparing apple to apples because the data collection is the same and then if you want to take the number of increased deaths over these given days and multiply them by whatever factor you want to come up with number of dead over 30-days or 5-years after the accident and/or to account for any disbelief you have in the numbers due to errors, lies, conspiracies or any other reasons the numbers could be off.

If you didn't like what the trends showed in my original post so be it but the trends were based on comparing apples to apples and as I clearly stated a number of times it was to view trends and not actual death count since they can always be disputed and what is more important is if things are improving or not and the way to know this is to compare apple to apples to see a trend and not base your data on numbers that don't exist (WHOs number for Songkran) or base numbers on an estimate from a report whose author states little confidence in their number for that report and whose numbers are grossly different than years before when they did state 95% confidence.

Links:

http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78256/1/9789241564564_eng.pdf

http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/626230-road-tolls-in-thailand-among-highest-in-the-world/

If you read this thread the Thai Interior Minister says that Thai annual road deaths are about 26000, inline with the WHO figure.

The numbers are from WHIO - the ones I explained previously are way out of par this last report and to which they admit they don't have confidence because they didn't have all the relevant data - It is not the Thai Interior Minster saying this, he is just commenting on the numbers from that report.

I certainly don't know what the exact numbers are and have gone beyond normal communication skills to explain the actual numbers are not relevant to my comments with where just looking at trends and therefore only need to use the same method of collection year after year compared to the holiday. However, I am certainly not going to believe the WHO numbers of this last report are accurate since they are clear to say there is not much confidence in their number for this report and their number has doubled or tripled since the last report when there is no way in the world the numbers went up and it makes no sense to believe they did since the Thai numbers (the ones WHO bases all their calculations on) are down.

[Thaddeus]

I certainly don't know what the exact numbers are

Correct, you don't.

Neither do you have any knowledge of how accurate the published numbers are, which means you are pretty much just blowing smoke out of an orifice were smoke don't belong.

However, if it fills your day and makes you feel that you have achieved something, carry on.

Most of us will be stood behind the curtain, sniggering.

[apetley]

This is a quote from the article link above.

"BANGKOK: -- Up to 26,000 people are killed in road accidents every year in Thailand, which puts the country in the 6th spot in terms of road casualties. Of those killed, up to 70 or 80 per cent are motorcyclists or their passengers.

These statistics were released at a press conference by Vice Interior Minister Silapachai Jarukasemratana yesterday."

Released by Thai Interior Minister at his own press conference.

[edwinchester]

Or use the apple against apple multiplier... Meaning if the official Thai number of highway deaths is 8000 per year, and the WHO thinks it is really 26000, that would mean you would have to multiply the official Thai holiday deaths by roughly a factor of three to get an accurate number. That would place the real toll for the three days at about 519. Which would mean of course that a lot more people than average are killed during these holidays. I personally will be cowering at home waiting for Songkran to finish.... :-)

Actually your math is incorrect. If you increase numbers by the same factor then the percentage of increase is going to be the same.

Example. if you have compare 2 and 8 then you know 8 is 4x more than 2. But if you double or triple each number then one is always going to be 3x more. No matter what numbers you want to use the percentages are the same and 2 to 3x more people will die on the road during Songkran.

As for hiding at home it seems a bit extreme and paranoid because even if you take the highest estimates available, your odds of dying on the road are extremely slim and even slimmer if you are not drunk driving a motorbike without a helmet and insanely slim if you are not even driving at all.

Actually the math is pretty simple. Take official numbers and roughly triple them to see what is actually happening. Surprised you had trouble with that concept as your posts generally seem fairly erudite ....

My cowering at home is actually to protect my eyes from drunks trying to blast my face with the " banned" pipe water guns.

Why would you want to compare the WHO numbers from their last report when ...

WHO doesn't estimate the number of deaths over Songkran

The last WHO report is the first where the numbers dramatically differed from the Thai numbers (minus adding about 40% for deaths within 30 days) and they even state in their last report they didn't have certain data from Thailand and they have little confidence in their estimate for Thailand in this report. A logical person might assume that deaths didn't triple during the year of this last report especially considering all their estimates start out based on the number of reported deaths from Thai officials and according to them deaths were down.

Who adjust numbers to represent deaths within 30-days to make all countries comparable since many have different periods that they report on but the numbers obviously given on a daily basis for deaths each day over Songkran are for those killed that day.

If you compare Thai numbers to Thai numbers then you are comparing apple to apples because the data collection is the same and then if you want to take the number of increased deaths over these given days and multiply them by whatever factor you want to come up with number of dead over 30-days or 5-years after the accident and/or to account for any disbelief you have in the numbers due to errors, lies, conspiracies or any other reasons the numbers could be off.

If you didn't like what the trends showed in my original post so be it but the trends were based on comparing apples to apples and as I clearly stated a number of times it was to view trends and not actual death count since they can always be disputed and what is more important is if things are improving or not and the way to know this is to compare apple to apples to see a trend and not base your data on numbers that don't exist (WHOs number for Songkran) or base numbers on an estimate from a report whose author states little confidence in their number for that report and whose numbers are grossly different than years before when they did state 95% confidence.

Links:http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78256/1/9789241564564_eng.pdfhttp://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/626230-road-tolls-in-thailand-among-highest-in-the-world/

If you read this thread the Thai Interior Minister says that Thai annual road deaths are about 26000, inline with the WHO figure.

The numbers are from WHIO - the ones I explained previously are way out of par this last report and to which they admit they don't have confidence because they didn't have all the relevant data - It is not the Thai Interior Minster saying this, he is just commenting on the numbers from that report.

I certainly don't know what the exact numbers are and have gone beyond normal communication skills to explain the actual numbers are not relevant to my comments with where just looking at trends and therefore only need to use the same method of collection year after year compared to the holiday. However, I am certainly not going to believe the WHO numbers of this last report are accurate since they are clear to say there is not much confidence in their number for this report and their number has doubled or tripled since the last report when there is no way in the world the numbers went up and it makes no sense to believe they did since the Thai numbers (the ones WHO bases all their calculations on) are down.

So the Interior Minister has confidence in the 26000 death figure, he released the number himself at the press confidence himself, but you don't........interesting.

[Scott]

I think the nonsensical inflammatory remarks can stop unless posters would like to get a formal warning and a suspension.

Please stay on the topic and the topic isn't about other posters.

[Nisa]

So the Interior Minister has confidence in the 26000 death figure, he released the number himself at the press confidence himself, but you don't........interesting.

Now all of a sudden you are putting stock into what a Thai politician thinks?

By the way, I never saw anywhere that he quoted or even acknowledged this number. The paper did and they obviously got it from WHO.

I really suggest you read the report and you will understand that WHO doesn't even put faith in that number and that they actually refer to the deaths being around 13,500 to include deaths within 30-days of the accident.

The WHO numbers are based on the Thai numbers, the WHO doesn't collect data except from the official Thai numbers. The Whos's latest report came out in 2013 and is looking at the year 2010. Their previous report was in 2007. If you want to believe the latest adjusted total of 26,000 then you need to accept that either WHO had been way off in all their other reports on Thailand or that road deaths have more than doubled since 2007 which I think we all know they have not.

I've provided the links to both the Thai numbers as well as the latest WHO report. I would suggest iif you want to honestly understand and discuss the number of deaths than read those reports instead of being stubborn and looking for belief in things like a Thai politician commenting on road fatalities being too high within a news story about that quoted the latest WHO report's adjusted estimate..

But as stated numerous times I think the actual numbers are meaningless and my comments where never about which were accurate and I couldn't have made that clearer and the reason why is because I know people get obsessed with the numbers rather than if and by how much things are changing. Actual numbers I guess are important if you want to compare country to country but do you really need to do this to know richer countries that are more modern and have been much longer do and should have less road deaths than a poorer country who has rocketed into modernization so fast the last decades.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Nisa

[Langsuan Man]

Darwin had a theory that explains all of this...................

[Nisa]

Maybe a visual will help.

If you want to have confidence in the WHO estimates for Thailand (which by the way WHO doesn't for 2010) you have to then accept that Thailand went from 19.6 Deaths per 100,000 to 38.1 deaths per 100,000 in 3-years .... in other words deaths in 2007 where about 13,500 (not far off of official Thai numbers) compared with 26,500 in 2010. This of course makes no sense since the WHO numbers start with the official Thai numbers and those numbers have gone down from 2007 compared to 2010.

2007 (published 2009) WHO numbers

2010 (published 2013) WHO numbers

Links:

http://www.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/78256/1/9789241564564_eng.pdf
http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp
http://web.archive.org/web/20130122154009/http://www.thaiwebsites.com/caraccidents.asp

Edited April 16, 2013 by Nisa

[edwinchester]

Yes I read the links before.

My take after reading them, and from the statement by the Interior Minister, is that the the rise between 2007 and 2010 may be explained by including deaths that occur in hospital resulting from injuries received. It's widely reported that the official stats are of those who die at the scene only.

Anyway, this part of the debate will only be resolved by consistant methodology in the gathering of stats.......maybe one day.

[kevvy]

just got back from up north, traveled 1100 klms, only seen 2 active police on the road , the others sitting in their tents .

[Nisa]

Yes I read the links before. My take after reading them, and from the statement by the Interior Minister, is that the the rise between 2007 and 2010 may be explained by including deaths that occur in hospital resulting from injuries received. It's widely reported that the official stats are of those who die at the scene only. Anyway, this part of the debate will only be resolved by consistant methodology in the gathering of stats.......maybe one day.

I understand it easy to make such an assumption but it is wrong. Both WHO reports (2007 & 2010) calculate for people dying within 30 Days and use negative binomial regression to come up with a "Point Number" to calculate all deaths even if they happen many years later.

The number WHO says for 2010 is around 13,500 (Thailand) for people dying within 30 Days but then go on to give a final "Point Number" of 26,000 for the Point Number. On the other hand they give the USA a 30 Day death toll of 33,000 for the US but a Point Total of 35,500.

In other words Thailand's number doubled from deaths within 30 Days while the US went up 8%. Even more more modern healthcare (without considering the number of uninsured in the US) can not justify these numbers of expected deaths past 30-days.

And probably the biggest reason to understand the Point Number is BS is that in the 2009 report (http://www.un.org/ar/roadsafety/pdf/roadsafetyreport.pdf) for 2007 Deaths the WHO says Thailand had a Point Number of 12,492 ... but for 2010 it gives a number of around 26,000 ?????

Simply looking at the charts comparing countries from 2007 to 2010 which I previously posted shows there is something significantly wrong with the Thai Point Number this year. No other country saw there numbers about double and no matter what anyone wants to believe the road death totals in Thailand didn't double from 2007 to 2010.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Nisa

[Thai at Heart]

Yes I read the links before. My take after reading them, and from the statement by the Interior Minister, is that the the rise between 2007 and 2010 may be explained by including deaths that occur in hospital resulting from injuries received. It's widely reported that the official stats are of those who die at the scene only. Anyway, this part of the debate will only be resolved by consistant methodology in the gathering of stats.......maybe one day.

I understand it easy to make such an assumption but it is wrong. Both WHO reports (2007 & 2010) calculate for people dying within 30 Days and use negative binomial regression to come up with a "Point Number" to calculate all deaths even if they happen many years later.

The number WHO says for 2010 is around 13,500 (Thailand) for people dying within 30 Days but then go on to give a final "Point Number" of 26,000 for the Point Number. On the other hand they give the USA a 30 Day death toll of 33,000 for the US but a Point Total of 35,500.

In other words Thailand's number doubled from deaths within 30 Days while the US went up 8%. Even more more modern healthcare (without considering the number of uninsured in the US) can not justify these numbers of expected deaths past 30-days.

And probably the biggest reason to understand the Point Number is BS is that in the 2009 report (http://www.un.org/ar/roadsafety/pdf/roadsafetyreport.pdf) for 2007 Deaths the WHO says Thailand had a Point Number of 12,492 ... but for 2010 it gives a number of around 26,000 ?????

Simply looking at the charts comparing countries from 2007 to 2010 which I previously posted shows there is something significantly wrong with the Thai Point Number this year. No other country saw there numbers about double and no matter what anyone wants to believe the road death totals in Thailand didn't double from 2007 to 2010.

Keep digging, but I think you may be peeing up a waterfall to prove that driving in Thailand isn't significantly more dangerous than more developed countries.

Good luck.

[Nisa]

Yes I read the links before. My take after reading them, and from the statement by the Interior Minister, is that the the rise between 2007 and 2010 may be explained by including deaths that occur in hospital resulting from injuries received. It's widely reported that the official stats are of those who die at the scene only. Anyway, this part of the debate will only be resolved by consistant methodology in the gathering of stats.......maybe one day.

I understand it easy to make such an assumption but it is wrong. Both WHO reports (2007 & 2010) calculate for people dying within 30 Days and use negative binomial regression to come up with a "Point Number" to calculate all deaths even if they happen many years later.

The number WHO says for 2010 is around 13,500 (Thailand) for people dying within 30 Days but then go on to give a final "Point Number" of 26,000 for the Point Number. On the other hand they give the USA a 30 Day death toll of 33,000 for the US but a Point Total of 35,500.

In other words Thailand's number doubled from deaths within 30 Days while the US went up 8%. Even more more modern healthcare (without considering the number of uninsured in the US) can not justify these numbers of expected deaths past 30-days.

And probably the biggest reason to understand the Point Number is BS is that in the 2009 report (http://www.un.org/ar/roadsafety/pdf/roadsafetyreport.pdf) for 2007 Deaths the WHO says Thailand had a Point Number of 12,492 ... but for 2010 it gives a number of around 26,000 ?????

Simply looking at the charts comparing countries from 2007 to 2010 which I previously posted shows there is something significantly wrong with the Thai Point Number this year. No other country saw there numbers about double and no matter what anyone wants to believe the road death totals in Thailand didn't double from 2007 to 2010.

Keep digging, but I think you may be peeing up a waterfall to prove that driving in Thailand isn't significantly more dangerous than more developed countries.

Good luck.

You should try to comprehend what you are reading before making assumption that have absolutely no basis and is opposite to what I have stated including that driving is obviously going to be more dangerous in a less developed nation. Closing your eyes to facts and just pretending what you want to pretend isn't going to help you be informed on a subject.

[Thai at Heart]

Yes I read the links before. My take after reading them, and from the statement by the Interior Minister, is that the the rise between 2007 and 2010 may be explained by including deaths that occur in hospital resulting from injuries received. It's widely reported that the official stats are of those who die at the scene only. Anyway, this part of the debate will only be resolved by consistant methodology in the gathering of stats.......maybe one day.

I understand it easy to make such an assumption but it is wrong. Both WHO reports (2007 & 2010) calculate for people dying within 30 Days and use negative binomial regression to come up with a "Point Number" to calculate all deaths even if they happen many years later.

The number WHO says for 2010 is around 13,500 (Thailand) for people dying within 30 Days but then go on to give a final "Point Number" of 26,000 for the Point Number. On the other hand they give the USA a 30 Day death toll of 33,000 for the US but a Point Total of 35,500.

In other words Thailand's number doubled from deaths within 30 Days while the US went up 8%. Even more more modern healthcare (without considering the number of uninsured in the US) can not justify these numbers of expected deaths past 30-days.

And probably the biggest reason to understand the Point Number is BS is that in the 2009 report (http://www.un.org/ar/roadsafety/pdf/roadsafetyreport.pdf) for 2007 Deaths the WHO says Thailand had a Point Number of 12,492 ... but for 2010 it gives a number of around 26,000 ?????

Simply looking at the charts comparing countries from 2007 to 2010 which I previously posted shows there is something significantly wrong with the Thai Point Number this year. No other country saw there numbers about double and no matter what anyone wants to believe the road death totals in Thailand didn't double from 2007 to 2010.

Keep digging, but I think you may be peeing up a waterfall to prove that driving in Thailand isn't significantly more dangerous than more developed countries.

Good luck.

You should try to comprehend what you are reading before making assumption that have absolutely no basis and is opposite to what I have stated including that driving is obviously going to be more dangerous in a less developed nation. Closing your eyes to facts and just pretending what you want to pretend isn't going to help you be informed on a subject.

Well, I just read on my phone, if I can find a way to link it showing 12000+ defined dead at the scene according to the WTO. I have the PDF here.

They report that many stats have to be extrapolated but 12000 at the scene can represent double in comparison with the 30 comparison used elsewhere.