jaffacakes1 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Sterling seems to be slowly strengthening against the Thai Bhat and this morning broke 46 - it's highest point since 21st Feb. Any thoughts / educated guesses on this trend? Buy or hold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Swiss1960 Posted May 3, 2013 Popular Post Share Posted May 3, 2013 Ask your wife... by default, she is always right... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kannot Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I was hoping the £ would sink even lower as I have to go back to the UK for "parent visiting" and planned to take a wedge with me to squander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I'd wait 'till it hits 70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaffacakes1 Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... Not a Forex trader or married. Just looking for a decent exchange rate and interested in any intelligent input.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 OK, if you need Baht and you're trying to maximise your purchase it would ssem that the current rate is a good one, after all, there's no really good reason why the Pound should be getting stronger, is there! On the other side of the coin is the question of whether the BOT is serious about trying to weaken THB in order to protect their export market, THB has weakened for the past few days and that could continue or the markets could say, sorry, we don't believe the BOT threats so we'll take another shot at things. So, if it was me and I wanted to buy THB I'd probably do it today but you might see things very differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangkockney Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... I disagree with this entirely. If you want to play short, you can determine trends on a one hour chart and open positions on the five minute chart. In fact, this gives you a decent amount of flexibility when considering risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machans88 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I'm not a currency trader,but it seems every economy in the world is trying to weaken its currency,australia has been trying for over 12months with no success,,my input would be if it looks like a good price and you need some baht, exchange some, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnotherOneAmerican Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 OK, if you need Baht and you're trying to maximise your purchase it would ssem that the current rate is a good one, after all, there's no really good reason why the Pound should be getting stronger, is there! On the other side of the coin is the question of whether the BOT is serious about trying to weaken THB in order to protect their export market, THB has weakened for the past few days and that could continue or the markets could say, sorry, we don't believe the BOT threats so we'll take another shot at things. So, if it was me and I wanted to buy THB I'd probably do it today but you might see things very differently. I've always found November and December a good time to buy baht. Summer gives the worst rates. 50 by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Let's put it this way, I'm more interested in seeing THB strengthen and I started to get excited at 43, i suspect I may get excited again before the weakening crowd does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLCrab Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 If you read about it here, it's already too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackinbkk Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 OK, if you need Baht and you're trying to maximise your purchase it would ssem that the current rate is a good one, after all, there's no really good reason why the Pound should be getting stronger, is there! On the other side of the coin is the question of whether the BOT is serious about trying to weaken THB in order to protect their export market, THB has weakened for the past few days and that could continue or the markets could say, sorry, we don't believe the BOT threats so we'll take another shot at things. So, if it was me and I wanted to buy THB I'd probably do it today but you might see things very differently. With the difficulties in Rice exports it's probably more likely they will try to devalue the Baht but then the UK has a great history is financial blunders. Unless you are changing many thousands sterling any swing probably wont even be significant anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackinbkk Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... I disagree with this entirely. If you want to play short, you can determine trends on a one hour chart and open positions on the five minute chart. In fact, this gives you a decent amount of flexibility when considering risk. Yes you'll maybe find trends but you are probably witnessing noise. I think Swiss was talking about long term trends appearing in long term time periods but this is a pointless conversation anyway if you agree with random walk theroy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteman Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 the kiwi hit 25 today so I bought a big wedge over today I have worked most of my thinking on 25 and every time it hits 25 I bring funds over been doing that over the last 10 years. I do not care if it goes to 27 or drops to 22 I wait and wait then bingo 25 over she comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phutoie2 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Well not sure what a kiwi is, boot polish perhaps . Some good news from the UK is helping mother Sterling. Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robblok Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 All currencies are up.. its just that the baht is down.. has nothing to do with Uk helping mother Sterling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eesat Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... What would you call it then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eesat Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The NFPs or Non-Farm Payrolls are out today,the first Friday in the month.They're the monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labour to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely. The actual figure was 165k jobs created,the forecast was 140k and the previous month was 138k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokie36 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 I'd wait 'till it hits 70. If that happens by June I will celebrate at the NY Steakhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaffacakes1 Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 OK, if you need Baht and you're trying to maximise your purchase it would ssem that the current rate is a good one, after all, there's no really good reason why the Pound should be getting stronger, is there! On the other side of the coin is the question of whether the BOT is serious about trying to weaken THB in order to protect their export market, THB has weakened for the past few days and that could continue or the markets could say, sorry, we don't believe the BOT threats so we'll take another shot at things. So, if it was me and I wanted to buy THB I'd probably do it today but you might see things very differently. With the difficulties in Rice exports it's probably more likely they will try to devalue the Baht but then the UK has a great history is financial blunders. Unless you are changing many thousands sterling any swing probably wont even be significant anyway. Its a house sale. Now that sterling isn't the safe haven it once was so would prefer deposits in BHT just wish I'd acted before Jan this year when it tanked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eesat Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... A trend can be the way a currency pair trade over a daily trading session.Asia,European or American markets for instance,never mind 10 days. It really does sound like you don't have any clue what you're talking about I'm afraid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... A trend can be the way a currency pair trade over a daily trading session.Asia,European or American markets for instance,never mind 10 days. It really does sound like you don't have any clue what you're talking about I'm afraid! The OP is taking about "highest point since Feb 21", thus is not looking into day trade, but long term development... and 10days is not yet a trend from a long term perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiss1960 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 The NFPs or Non-Farm Payrolls are out today,the first Friday in the month.They're the monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labour to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely. The actual figure was 165k jobs created,the forecast was 140k and the previous month was 138k. Since the decline of the Baht against the major currencies started around 22 April, the job figures you mentioned can not be the trigger, as they have only been issued yesterday... so you would need to find the trigger around 21/22 April (for GBP, USD, EUR, CHF as examples) and then you could start to make assumptions whether that trigger might be sustainable and then be seen as a trend for the future development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Sod It ,i'me bringing over 100 quids worth today ,not taking any chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricardo Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Perhaps there are rumours of a cut in Thai interest-rates, prompting the weakening of the Baht, this week ? If the recent strength has been due to foreign money, coming in to take advantage of higher interest-rates, then a cut might help reverse the trend ? NB "perhaps" and "if" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExpatOilWorker Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 (edited) Sod It ,i'me bringing over 100 quids worth today ,not taking any chances You are rolling some serious money my friend. Edited May 4, 2013 by ExpatOilWorker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiamondKing Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading...Not a Forex trader or married. Just looking for a decent exchange rate and interested in any intelligent input.. Intelligent input ?? on Thai Visa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eesat Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... A trend can be the way a currency pair trade over a daily trading session.Asia,European or American markets for instance,never mind 10 days. It really does sound like you don't have any clue what you're talking about I'm afraid! The OP is taking about "highest point since Feb 21", thus is not looking into day trade, but long term development... and 10days is not yet a trend from a long term perspective. But you said anyone who thinks a 10 day spike doesn't warrant a trend is unfit for currency trading and I've just proved you utterly wrong,stop backpedalling and accept you're not as smart as you think you are! A trend is a trend,my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StreetCowboy Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 more serious... everybody talking about "trend" when a currency goes up for 10 days in a row is plain... unfit for currency trading... A trend can be the way a currency pair trade over a daily trading session.Asia,European or American markets for instance,never mind 10 days. It really does sound like you don't have any clue what you're talking about I'm afraid! The OP is taking about "highest point since Feb 21", thus is not looking into day trade, but long term development... and 10days is not yet a trend from a long term perspective. But you said anyone who thinks a 10 day spike doesn't warrant a trend is unfit for currency trading and I've just proved you utterly wrong,stop backpedalling and accept you're not as smart as you think you are! A trend is a trend,my friend! I don't honestly believe that any of us are as smart as we think we are, and I think anyone that thinks that doesn't apply to them needs to learn more about irony, humility and introspection, SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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