Is There No Wisdom In This Crowd?

[OldChinaHam]

Does anyone here recall reading James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom Of Crowds"?

I thought not.

"In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarterthan an elite few, no matter how brilliant–better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.

With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world."

Most here, I can tell, do not enjoy even the minimum amount of reading to get them through the day. So don't read this book, and I really do not expect you to after what I have seen here.

BUT, the concept is simple. Crowds are smarter than the individual when pooling their knowledge or guessing things like their own weight, smarter and more accurate than any given individual. This means that no matter intelligent your group, you can collectively still be very smart in guessing something.

THE FIRST QUESTION WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE "What might be the best first question to ask this group of regular posters at the TV FARANG PUB?"

Or maybe no one here has any interest in finally trying to find out how collectively smart you are?

So far I don't think I have seen anyone ask a really smart question.

Then what would be a smart question to ask this group?

(If you do not have the time to read this book in full, I think there is a fairly good summary here: http://www.cooperationcommons.com/node/413)

Now please free to ask away.

[OldChinaHam]

You know, this is very strange. I am only asking simple questions,

its not like I am asking to be invited into this Algonquin club, although I have already seen at least two avatars of Marx.

Maybe I should join the Frum Forum?

With the Canadians?

[Swiss1960]

You know, this is very strange. I am only asking simple questions,

its not like I am asking to be invited into this Algonquin club, although I have already seen at least two avatars of Marx.

Maybe I should join the Frum Forum?

With the Canadians?

Maybe you should follow your own advice... start to ask simple questions that deserve answers... they must not even be smart...

[Thaddeus]

So far I don't think I have seen anyone ask a really smart question.

Would you be able to recognise one?

[onionluke]

Good morning OCH ,

I would like to ask ,

What are you having old chap ? Mine's a double as it's still early , don't ya know !!

[smokie36]

Its too early even for that. Sparkling apple juice and back to bed for me!

[VocalNeal]

Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant. Better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.

I run with a group called the Hash House Harriers and anyone else who does will tell you that a large group of people is infinitely more stupid than an experienced small group, now matter the level of IQ within the group. The problem with groups is that they revert to herd behaviour and tend to follow without thinking for themselves.

[gmac]

Large groups may have a greater collective knowledge than the few but by the time the views of the multitude have been canvassed, collated and the ultimate wisdom extracted the moment to answer the question has passed. Hence we have the self-appointed/elected a**holes in charge who act on their own limited wisdom for their own narrow aims. There will always be leaders and they will always think they know best. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[Ulysses G.]

If the OP read it, it does not seem to have sunk in.

[OldChinaHam]

Then there is no chance of this question being taken seriously?

[Swiss1960]

Then there is no chance of this question being taken seriously?

Why should you be taken seriously, after you have qualified everybody through "So far I don't think I have seen anyone ask a really smart question"

[OldChinaHam]

Good point, after all.

Then what should I have said, if I were willing to say it, that would have lead to be taken seriously?

[krisb]

Then there is no chance of this question being taken seriously?

No.

[OldChinaHam]

You know, the problem with this is that it can become completely consuming and all-engrossing.

And then you find yourself half-way to Mars.

[Swiss1960]

Good point, after all.

Then what should I have said, if I were willing to say it, that would have lead to be taken seriously?

Let me put it this way: First of all, I might have a general impression of a poster based on his postings that I might have fallen over, when we both write / read in the same threads. Seen a few threads of you which did not make me take your post too serious in first place.

Second is that you put your thread in the Farang Pub, where normally posters don't want to be taken too serious, me included. And of course, your way of writing did not really help your seriosity.

Finally, I would have thought that you know the answer to your question: There are many forums where the serious stuff is answered in serious way - and you have made that experience yourself in the VISA forum (your question about visa change from tourist to ED) and thus, you know where to find the collective wisdom: in the specialized forums like health, visa, marriage, travel, internet, support etc etc.

[OldChinaHam]

You, Sir, are, Of course, CORRECT!

But, here is something serious, FOR sure!

http://www.democracynow.org/

[OldChinaHam]

On a serious note, it probably would not hurt anyone here to expose themselves

To a daily dose

Of DemocracyNow

Each and every evening

Thailand, Time

This is seen around the world and should be watched,

If one wants to be considered serious.

But since this program is non corporate funded, non government funded

Then you will not be able to post on TV during non existent "commercial breaks".

[carken]

Large groups may have a greater collective knowledge than the few but by the time the views of the multitude have been canvassed, collated and the ultimate wisdom extracted the moment to answer the question has passed. Hence we have the self-appointed/elected a**holes in charge who act on their own limited wisdom for their own narrow aims. There will always be leaders and they will always think they know best. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Even though I have been in Thailand for 7 years I only discovered TVF approx 4 years ago. I have benefited by some of the discussions. I have noticed that (as in every place on our planet) TVF has it's share of romantics good citizens intelligence ignorance prejudices arrogance snobbery braggarts ethical unethical helpful hurtful etc etc persons. i.e. a potpourri of human traits. usually after approx 18 to 20 posts one can get a pretty good idea or feel for an individuals psychological makeup and what "floats his/her boat" (an expression used a bit on TVF).

I need to preface my next request/paragraph by saying I'm not gay but not prejudiced against being gay. Everybody has their freedom of choice and I respect every ones choices as long as it doesn't cause any mental / physical harm to any living creature.

I'm a retired American expat. I have a Thai wife (6.5 yrs) and we have 2 teenage sons (13 & 14) We have a nice 1650 sq ft 3 bdrm 2 bath home (1 mill baht) we built 2 years ago, We live in a small community two and a half hours SE of Bangkok and 1 hour NW of Hua Hin. I have a small group (3) of friends in USA that I email daily exchanging news, info and opinions on everything. However our main issues are with the criminality of American gov(war) and bankers(tax dollar theft).Our small group IMO is for the most part pretty intelligent (my IQ137,not bragging just a fact) educated and up to date on world affairs

I have taken notice of GMAC's posts for awhile. I've been impressed by the intelligence & thought conveyed in his posts. My question is to GMAC. I would be highly interested to hear your personal opinions on many things as I have gained a respect for your opinions. I would take care as to not abuse your communications by taking up a lot of your time but would care to hear your opinions. Would that be possible. A negative response would be understandable, a positive one would be welcomed.

[Swiss1960]

On a serious note, it probably would not hurt anyone here to expose themselves To a daily dose Of DemocracyNow Each and every evening Thailand, Time

This is seen around the world and should be watched, If one wants to be considered serious.

But since this program is non corporate funded, non government funded Then you will not be able to post on TV during non existent "commercial breaks".

Ok, let me take this serious for a minute, having scrolled through some information about that webpage

First, does it not amaze you that people / journalists a country like the US of A (who think they have invented democracy...) feel the necessity to start a website about democracy in order to talk about things they feel underreported? As it is a US of A focused site, how much value does it give for the daily life of somebody living in Thailand?

Second, the problem with such a website is that it does NOT collect the "intelligence of the crowd". This website is controlled and steered by the journalists with a political agenda in the background.

Third, ThaiVisa has a completely different purpose, mainly give it's users the possibility to interact about everything that comes to their mind without any given agenda. Interacting with each other, being able to express their thoughts within the limits set by the laws of Thailand, or being able to hook up with other users on a personal and direct way and asking questions and share experiences is what I take as my goals from using ThaiVisa.

Thus, IMPO, you can not compare these websites. As I said before: Some forums here on TV do (and want to) collect the intelligence of the crowd, I have named some forums before. Others (like general or farang pub) do not (and mostly do not want to) collect any intelligence of the crowd but mainly provide a platform to exchange personal opinions and ideas.

I like it the way it is. Sometimes, the old-women-bickering amuses me, sometimes it does not. Sometimes I join the crowd in sarcastic / humerous comments, but on serious questions, I try to give serious comments. For me, ThaiVisa is of great value and I have received valuable answers on my own serious questions. But it takes time and patience to read through (and over) many of the comments and answers that are given...

[OldChinaHam]

First, it does very much amaze me. And even more amazing is that there are still a few groups left in the US of A that take the time and resources to broadcast a quality news program which is probably not heaving influenced by corporate, government, or single individual resources. And, this is why it might be of interest to be watched by others around the world, so that they too can see that US news in not completely controlled by corp-gov-elite entities. People in countries in Asia need to follow US news very closely if they wish to find out what may happen to them now, and in the future. Of course you are right that with limited resources, DN is not able to provide as much international, or domestic, coverage as I am sure it would like.

Second, Yes, there is an agenda. It the agenda is not too far from yours, then watch it Or if you like to learn about what they are reporting, then watch it, also.

Third, Of course what you say is true that TV is a very valuable resource for anyone living in Thailand or anyone wanting to know more about Thailand or the foreigners who living in Thailand. There are many countries which do not have a Forum such as this, and their expats are at a disadvantage due to this lacking.

Fourth, Old-Biddies-Bickering is a real plus, as you also say. Without old women, this site would be so dull that many fewer readers and writers would participate. I do not know of another site I have come across that is like this one. And, like you, I would not wish to see it changed. To repeat, a site like TV could not exist in a number of countries near and far from Thailand.

It would have been really interesting to have been in Thailand to see the site mature into what we have today.

Get a few people together with half a sense of humor, provide them with computers, and TV will soon have them rolling in the aisles, non stop, for as long as they can put up with it.

(Probably I should use one of those Emoty Cons here, but I still can't get the TV Software working right. Maybe next time.)

[OldChinaHam]

There is always another point to be made, and about yours, I am just wondering how many news programs/broadcasts you know of which do not deal heavily in dishing out mostly football news, other sports news, and much news =about= Murdoch as reported =by= Murdoch.

There was Ted's CNN before it was watered down shortly after it began broadcasting hard news.

Now maybe there is Al Jazeera but this news is limited.

Then you got Russia Today.

You might have The Guardian for any readers out there.

I dunno.

I'm just daft.

[Loptr]

You, Sir, are, Of course, CORRECT!

But, here is something serious, FOR sure!

http://www.democracynow.org/

Posting links to left-wing propaganda sites does little to advance your request for intelligent questions. To answer an intelligent question, one must not have a skewed sense of reality, which you have just demonstrated that you lack.

Perhaps you should go back to creating threads asking whether people are posers that post on TV who don't actually live in Thailand.

[OldChinaHam]

Left of What?

If one stands where one stood 30 years ago when one was rather middle of the road,

And then the whole world moves right

One has not moved, but then one has become left?

But anyway, please list here some proper sites?

I will find that most intriguing.

[OldChinaHam]

Wait

A

Min

Ute.......

Are you putting me on?

Your're really from the Heritage Foundation.

Right?

[OldChinaHam]

Speaking of Right,

Everyone used to like this Old Woman.

Before She Up and Left

[Phronesis]

Could the OP please explain to me how the "wisdom of the crowd" differs from "mob mentality".

[onionluke]

Speaking of Right,

Everyone used to like this Old Woman.

Before She Up and Left

I didn't much admire her steadfast hold on perebeleptism and conservatism . Well maybe her perebeliptism .

[OldChinaHam]

I don't think anyone was talking about "mob mentality".

The wisdom of crowds has nothing to due with rule by the mob.

There are certain tasks where crowds perform better than the individual.

Also, there are groups of researchers which we now recognise work much better than the lone researcher, Salk included, when the groups are organized properly.

But, no the wisdom of crowds does not apply to "rule" (I don't think, anyway.)

The best rule, however, IMHO is always a democracy, unless one wants to end up hanging like FRUITS from a poplar tree.

Billie Holiday-Strange fruit- HD

[onionluke]

I do remember fondly , satirical noodlings and sharp aquigglings.

[OldChinaHam]

Anything to needle your noodle.