Thai Baht

[PeaceBlondie]

I like what somebody said on another thread here (maybe it was britmaveric) - that there are no fundamental reasons for the baht to be this strong against the dollar. I always blame the speculators who control more than 90% of currency exchanges. Heck, I'm clutching at any straw. I'd be a lot happier with 38 than I am at 35.22.

[jbowman1993]

As someone who gets paid in baht, and sends money back to the US, I couldn't be happier. Also, its a great way to beat down inflation!

[bmanly]

Anyway, I reckon the baht might well hit 35 by year end; but that is because I expect more US dollar weakness, the U.S.A. might well suffer a meltdown financially; a big crash. So think Swiss Francs and Gold.

This thread was started in March 2006, well done libya 115 you were the only one who guessed it right. Trying to pick which way a currency will move is about as hard as trying to pick the lotto numbers.

[Old Man River]

I like what somebody said on another thread here (maybe it was britmaveric) - that there are no fundamental reasons for the baht to be this strong against the dollar.

While I always look forward to Britmaveric's one liners, the source of this quote was Dr. Tarisa, the BOT Governor.

[libya 115]

Anyway, I reckon the baht might well hit 35 by year end; but that is because I expect more US dollar weakness, the U.S.A. might well suffer a meltdown financially; a big crash. So think Swiss Francs and Gold.

This thread was started in March 2006, well done libya 115 you were the only one who guessed it right. Trying to pick which way a currency will move is about as hard as trying to pick the lotto numbers.

Thanks for the acknowledgement, currency speculation is difficult, I am just a small fish but I am happy that during 2006 I made enough (profit) for a new fridge and a few dozen cases of Chang:

Hitachi, by the way.

Will post my predictions for 2007 at year end.

[besth]

Why do you think the baht seems to have left the dollar "gravity" influence to stay with what now are stronger currencies like the euro or pound?

Is there any economics-based theory? or is it some sort of "this is Thailand, leave the weak farang out"?

[Jingthing]

The dollar has weakened dramatically against most world currencies, so the fundamental reason is that it is now the bahts turn. Not a reflection of the baht's strength, but rather the dollars weakness.

China could probably crash the dollar if they wanted to, but it is not in their best interest to do so, so I think a total dollar meltdown is very remote. Continuing weakness? Most probably.

Edited December 14, 2006 by Jingthing

[britmaveric]

China(s) biggest customer for goods is the yanks, so they crash the dollar - they have no market to sell. This is a world economy - any crash will have a cascade effect for everyone.

[ProThaiExpat]

Greenspan was quoted in the Post yestday as predicting a weak dollar against most currencies for a couple of years or more into the future. He attributes it to the balance of payments and the excess of imports vs. exports in the U.S.

It seems to me there are so many influences on the currency markets that one is hard pressed to point out any one or more that has the major influence. Greenspan may be right, but I look at the following factors that make it undeterminable for me.

1. Currency speculators.

2. One trillion dollars a day in international money flows between countries.

3. Profligate spending by Bush and his Republicans and the rapid increase in the national debt.

4. Balance of payments.

5. etc.

As the dollar weakens, does this not mean that non-dollar holders will go on a spending spree in the U.S. buying up everything and thereby strengthening the balance of payments and the U.S. stock market, where shares must seem cheap to foreign investors. Likewise, real estate?

I have struggled with many of these influences and have just given up trying to hazard a guess as to what the dollar will look like in a year. Certainly, if the Baht stays around 35, I will be delignted, however, I fear for 25 to the dollar. As another poster said, fortunately, many of us did our house, car and furniture purchases at over 40 to the dollar so feel good about that, at least, but the daily erosion is alarming. Anyone that says, as most of the posters in April 2006 did, that the baht is due to go back to 40 anytime soon just seems to be fantasizing to me. I was hoping for a short term blip above 36 to perhaps 37 or 38 with some bad news coming out of Thailand inorder to bring in a couple of years expenses in dollars, but find that to be less likely as the days go bye.

The democrats may do things that are considered anti-business that may help the dollar, as a weak dollar certainly is the long term goal of the Republicans and their business base.