Set Index And Thai Mutual Funds

[canman]

Apologies if this has already been answered.

What SET tracking funds are available in Thailand?

[Oscar2]

Apologies if this has already been answered.

What SET tracking funds are available in Thailand?

i was just looking at these SET index funds from SCB. fees look very cheap. http://www.scbam.com/v2/en/personal/fund-service.aspx click on Index Fund from drop down menu.

[fletchsmile]

If you want cheap ETFs then go to www.morningstarthailand.com then click on the tab that says ETFs. From there if you click on the performance links you ll find a list invluding ETFS relating to SET. If you click on the funds tab and select IDXEQ under the AIMC category you get a list of index funds.

Cheers Fletch

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[fletchsmile]

Good article on Bloomberg about where we are now, incorporating some of Aberdeen's views:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-03/aberdeen-buys-thai-stocks-in-biggest-first-day-rout-on-valuation.html

A few quotes:

"The worst start to a year for Thai stockssince at least 1988 spurred Aberdeen Asset Management Plc to buy after valuations fell to the lowest levels in 18 months...."

“...I was very busy buying stocks yesterday,” Adithep Vanabriksha, the Bangkok-based chief investment officer for Thailand at Aberdeen Asset Management, .... “I still strongly believe that the current political crisis will be resolved in a peaceful way and the stock market will rebound....”

Also interesting that last year had the highest outflow of foreign funds in Thai equities since BBerg started compiling data:

"...Global investors sold a net $6.2 billion of Thai equities in 2013, the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1999...

and that foreigners were buying yesterday, which goes against some of the sensationalist free fall down and gloom no support calls

"...Foreigners bought a net $3.8 million yesterday, the first inflow in three days..."

-------------------

My thoughts: I think a lot of the bad news is priced in, and it's just a question of time to heal this again, and be seen as a buying opportunity. Not to say it can't or won't go lower, as the markets are currently being driven by sentiment particularly regards to the political situation. On the other hand it could also go higher from here too short term ...

In the context of 1) the political and 2) last year's record foreign sales, then 2013 held up relatively well. Gives nice comfort on the performance of my actively managed funds in 2013 in a tough year. Also that some of the heat has been taken out of the market is good, and some of the artificial situation created by QE/over supply of liquidity in the west/high foreign inflows in prior years has already been taken out with relatively little damage in 2013.

I'd much rather see the gentle correction we had in 2013, than see a bubble created with big potential for more dire consequences, that could have happened.

All in all adds to the positive feeling of this being quite good value in the long term....

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

On a slightly different note, talking to Thai colleagues at work, quite a lot of them sell LTFs in the early part of the year, including yesterday, which has an impact.

Many like to buy new LTFs in December and sell the old ones in January, which can accentuate falls in January.

Their philosophy is so that they can get the maximum tax break in the minimum time. This reflects more of a shorter time horizon/ speculative/ trading mentality of Thais relationship to stock markets, compared to the more mature long term investing in the west, particularly regarding mutual funds/unit trusts.

Personally I think their approach is flawed:

1) buying in Dec at the last minute when everyone else does, and historically buying high; then

2) selling in Jan when everyone else does, so risking selling low.

3) unit trusts are more suited to mid-longer term and time in the markets than timing the markets

I much prefer longer time in the markets and investing steadily for baht cost averaging. If I had to pick only one month to buy/sell I'd buy in late Jan and sell late Dec to maximise time in the market and hopefully buy low sell high.

It's not dissimilar to the UK where people buy their ISAs and Pensions on the last minute in March/April for the tax break. Much better in my view to buy at the start of the year and have a whole years' investment returns behind you, than miss out on a whole years returns due to waiting, apathy, laziness, not getting round to it. Be proactive!

The "other newspaper" also commented on the LTF effect too. Hard to quantify sometimes, but it's there...

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

As an update on the Co-op bank bonds earlier in the thread. Things have worked out well.

The re-organisation is now complete, and my online statement from my broker now reflects this. The result being:

Bad news:

- It's been a bit of a roller coaster ride. But then I always went in with eyes open knowing it was speculative, and could lose quite a bit, but prepared to add more if it went well

- The yield to maturity is more like 9% on my original cost (10% if I include the recent distributions to be fair), which is is a bit lower than originally envisaged.

Good news

- I now have fixed income securities issued by the parent Group instead of the bank subsidiary which is a better credit. Which I guess offsets the lower yield.

- The value as at today's bid price of 115 means I am down 0.98% on the capital side. I see this as a positive given the acquisition costs of brokers fee + there is now a bid-offer spread of 115-125, so at replacement cost I've already absorbed the large spread

- In the last few days I've received distributions totalling nearly 10% of original cost

- So all in all I've made about 9% on an offer to bid after costs in just over 6 months

- I've hopefully locked in a nice 11% yield distribution/coupon yield for the next 12 years, or 9% YTM on original cost (excluding the recent distribution which would put it closer to 10% YTM) which exceeds my target/ hurdle rate 7%

- Nice feeling that I got a reasonable risk vs reward assessment all things considered, once the markets overrode the mess the regulator and original owners made

Worth the risk. Not sure I'd like to buy more given the history. Sentiment aside: it's a reasonably attractive yield now of 11% coupon for 12 years on bid-offer 115-125 for someone to consider now the dust has settled

Cheers

Fletch

[SheungWan]

As an update on the Co-op bank bonds earlier in the thread. Things have worked out well.

The re-organisation is now complete, and my online statement from my broker now reflects this. The result being:

Bad news:

- It's been a bit of a roller coaster ride. But then I always went in with eyes open knowing it was speculative, and could lose quite a bit, but prepared to add more if it went well

- The yield to maturity is more like 9% on my original cost (10% if I include the recent distributions to be fair), which is is a bit lower than originally envisaged.

Good news

- I now have fixed income securities issued by the parent Group instead of the bank subsidiary which is a better credit. Which I guess offsets the lower yield.

- The value as at today's bid price of 115 means I am down 0.98% on the capital side. I see this as a positive given the acquisition costs of brokers fee + there is now a bid-offer spread of 115-125, so at replacement cost I've already absorbed the large spread

- In the last few days I've received distributions totalling nearly 10% of original cost

- So all in all I've made about 9% on an offer to bid after costs in just over 6 months

- I've hopefully locked in a nice 11% yield distribution/coupon yield for the next 12 years, or 9% YTM on original cost (excluding the recent distribution which would put it closer to 10% YTM) which exceeds my target/ hurdle rate 7%

- Nice feeling that I got a reasonable risk vs reward assessment all things considered, once the markets overrode the mess the regulator and original owners made

Worth the risk. Not sure I'd like to buy more given the history. Sentiment aside: it's a reasonably attractive yield now of 11% coupon for 12 years on bid-offer 115-125 for someone to consider now the dust has settled

Cheers

Fletch

Well done. It begs the question in terms of this thread whether there is opportunity in terms of the SET to invest in the beaten up index. The one thing that the UK is perceived to have over Thailand is political stability and that is the background to your investment. Even in terms of the events around Greece not so long ago there was street riots versus steady hand. In Thailand now that certainty that stability eventually prevails is slipping away, so a brave man who goes in now. But then that is how money is made....buying when the future looks at its most bleak. Are we there yet?

[isawasnake]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts.

I haven't been in the market too long, got in about October or so 2013 with an LTF plus some extra curricular investments I am down almost 35k baht in that short time, but I saved about 30K baht in taxes just putting the funds in.

In hindsight, I should have headed some of the advice of posters around here. Even though I had a chuck of cash, I should have put in more slow and steady. Live and learn

Despite all that, I think there are great buying opportunities now, and I actually hope these prices last a while so I can get some of my monthly paychecks in to take advantage of this market. Truth be told, I may lose a little sleep if it keeps falling, I'm no cool hand Luke (yet), but I'll keep adding in any event, and hope that the baht cost averaging will even things out for long term gains.

Happy new year to all.

[inzman]

Investing in securities is a gamble that small investors cannot win. The big money has the game rigged. Why is it that investors are all ready to brag about how much they made, but nobody wants to talk about their losses. The Thai set is down 30% from its high, but everybody on here only made money? Hmmmm. If the money is invested in hard investments like real estate you have a better chance of gains, but the market is rigged and long term you lose. It's your money to lose, do it carefully! As we get older, risk should be less.

[SheungWan]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts.

I haven't been in the market too long, got in about October or so 2013 with an LTF plus some extra curricular investments I am down almost 35k baht in that short time, but I saved about 30K baht in taxes just putting the funds in.

In hindsight, I should have headed some of the advice of posters around here. Even though I had a chuck of cash, I should have put in more slow and steady. Live and learn

Despite all that, I think there are great buying opportunities now, and I actually hope these prices last a while so I can get some of my monthly paychecks in to take advantage of this market. Truth be told, I may lose a little sleep if it keeps falling, I'm no cool hand Luke (yet), but I'll keep adding in any event, and hope that the baht cost averaging will even things out for long term gains.

Happy new year to all.

35k baht down is not a big amount so relax a little.

[isawasnake]

I appreciate everyone's thoughts.

I haven't been in the market too long, got in about October or so 2013 with an LTF plus some extra curricular investments I am down almost 35k baht in that short time, but I saved about 30K baht in taxes just putting the funds in.

In hindsight, I should have headed some of the advice of posters around here. Even though I had a chuck of cash, I should have put in more slow and steady. Live and learn

Despite all that, I think there are great buying opportunities now, and I actually hope these prices last a while so I can get some of my monthly paychecks in to take advantage of this market. Truth be told, I may lose a little sleep if it keeps falling, I'm no cool hand Luke (yet), but I'll keep adding in any event, and hope that the baht cost averaging will even things out for long term gains.

Happy new year to all.

35k baht down is not a big amount so relax a little.

I am pretty calm I don't even "feel" down considering the tax incentives on part of my overall investments. I think that is why this all appealed to me so much - that little LTF cushion.

[isawasnake]

Well, I have continued to go against the prudent baht cost averaging advice on here. I bought a little at 1224, then decided to buy quite a but more when it was around 1250 is. These prices lately seem good to me. What do you guys think? I guess today is a big one, so we'll have to wait and see. I take it the folks who are baht cost averaging are trying to get more in during the the last month or so?

[SheungWan]

Well, I have continued to go against the prudent baht cost averaging advice on here. I bought a little at 1224, then decided to buy quite a but more when it was around 1250 is. These prices lately seem good to me. What do you guys think? I guess today is a big one, so we'll have to wait and see. I take it the folks who are baht cost averaging are trying to get more in during the the last month or so?

Some are hunkering down for a return of the holy grail of 40 and 70. Then and only then will they stop drinking Leo.

[fletchsmile]

Short term really does look a roller coaster at the moment - seems to be anyone's guess what will happen in politics and market direction. Will it get worse driving the markets down? or will it all be solved (for a while) sparking a rally. I have to admit to being a bit surprised the Thai market has held up quite well this year - more or less flat after today. Better than many global markets

I do think a lot of bad news is already priced in though, and the protests have been relatively benign to date, leading to 2 days of SET rises.

As the protesters have given me a little more free time, I started my LTF baht cost averaging early this year. Just put my first of 10 planned monthly installments into UOB (ING) Thai Good Governance LTF (adding to existing holdings). I guess there's a certain irony in choosing a Thai equity fund with the name "good governance" in the light of all the focus on corruption here.

Cheers

Fletch

[cheeryble]

Question:

Is Thailand now a good buy for me bearing in mind BP…..truly a powerhouse…..has a considerably lower PE (10ish) than the SET (15ish), yet even at today's rising prices gives considerably more yield (4.5%) than the SET (3.29%?).

It's true…..I will spend mostly baht in my future, and this is relevant to what i want to earn in.

OTOH energy producers like BP are by their nature partially hedged across all currencies as they are consumed by all countries.

Is there a good competitor(s) for my extra capital inside the SET which would offer me similar yield as BP and has some element of BP's gravitas and dynamism to get some decent growth as well?

OR would I be better using a Baht proxy such as another SEAsia or Eastern country such as Singapore (though that looks well cooked already).

[SheungWan]

Question:

Is Thailand now a good buy for me bearing in mind BP…..truly a powerhouse…..has a considerably lower PE (10ish) than the SET (15ish), yet even at today's rising prices gives considerably more yield (4.5%) than the SET (3.29%?).

It's true…..I will spend mostly baht in my future, and this is relevant to what i want to earn in.

OTOH energy producers like BP are by their nature partially hedged across all currencies as they are consumed by all countries.

Is there a good competitor(s) for my extra capital inside the SET which would offer me similar yield as BP and has some element of BP's gravitas and dynamism to get some decent growth as well?

OR would I be better using a Baht proxy such as another SEAsia or Eastern country such as Singapore (though that looks well cooked already).

You might want to look at the Hang Seng at http://www.aastocks.com/en/default.aspx

[isawasnake]

Short term really does look a roller coaster at the moment - seems to be anyone's guess what will happen in politics and market direction. Will it get worse driving the markets down? or will it all be solved (for a while) sparking a rally. I have to admit to being a bit surprised the Thai market has held up quite well this year - more or less flat after today. Better than many global markets

I do think a lot of bad news is already priced in though, and the protests have been relatively benign to date, leading to 2 days of SET rises.

As the protesters have given me a little more free time, I started my LTF baht cost averaging early this year. Just put my first of 10 planned monthly installments into UOB (ING) Thai Good Governance LTF (adding to existing holdings). I guess there's a certain irony in choosing a Thai equity fund with the name "good governance" in the light of all the focus on corruption here.

Cheers

Fletch

Jealous. I got the big zilch for time off during these protests

I have to admire your regiment, I hope to get less emotional, and more structured. Long term, this idea of patiently adding monthly really does seem to be the best approach, as it factors in all the ups/downs and allows you to simply wait for growth.

[fletchsmile]

Short term really does look a roller coaster at the moment - seems to be anyone's guess what will happen in politics and market direction. Will it get worse driving the markets down? or will it all be solved (for a while) sparking a rally. I have to admit to being a bit surprised the Thai market has held up quite well this year - more or less flat after today. Better than many global markets

I do think a lot of bad news is already priced in though, and the protests have been relatively benign to date, leading to 2 days of SET rises.

As the protesters have given me a little more free time, I started my LTF baht cost averaging early this year. Just put my first of 10 planned monthly installments into UOB (ING) Thai Good Governance LTF (adding to existing holdings). I guess there's a certain irony in choosing a Thai equity fund with the name "good governance" in the light of all the focus on corruption here.

Cheers

Fletch

Jealous. I got the big zilch for time off during these protests

I have to admire your regiment, I hope to get less emotional, and more structured. Long term, this idea of patiently adding monthly really does seem to be the best approach, as it factors in all the ups/downs and allows you to simply wait for growth.

I've used this long term investing approach since my first full time job. Work out how much you will bring home after tax, then work out a budget/estimate of expenses then work out how much to invest each month. If you pay yourself first and do take home-invest-spend instead of take home-spend-invest combined with pound/dollar/baht cost averaging it soon mounts up over the years.

All I did then was tweak it a bit when I came to Thailand. When they brought in LTFs I tweaked it again worked on 10 month a year instead of 12 for the tax break to get back. For the kids I work on 12 months a year.

Trading for me is a different ball game though. I'm less disciplined and probably no coincidence in the early years at least - less successful.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Question:

Is Thailand now a good buy for me bearing in mind BP…..truly a powerhouse…..has a considerably lower PE (10ish) than the SET (15ish), yet even at today's rising prices gives considerably more yield (4.5%) than the SET (3.29%?).

It's true…..I will spend mostly baht in my future, and this is relevant to what i want to earn in.

OTOH energy producers like BP are by their nature partially hedged across all currencies as they are consumed by all countries.

Is there a good competitor(s) for my extra capital inside the SET which would offer me similar yield as BP and has some element of BP's gravitas and dynamism to get some decent growth as well?

OR would I be better using a Baht proxy such as another SEAsia or Eastern country such as Singapore (though that looks well cooked already).

Cheeryble,

To be honest they are all reasonable strategies, and all worth considering, and all your points valid. Particularly as diversification I do most of what you say above, so put my money where my mouth is. A few notes:

I think it's a bit unfair to compare a single UK stock to a broader Thai index, though worth as a starting point, and probably better compared to the oil/energy sector than broader index.

If you looked at PTT as a Thai single stock comparison, it's on a similar ball P/E park multiple and div yield concept as BP, so a better comparison (i.e PTT also lower P/E and higher div than the SET). That would be one alternative/complementary single stock choice. Market cap is about 1/3 the size of BP. It also has the benefit of a strong home country advantage, plus denominated in THB if that's what you're looking for. In the last few years it has been branching out and even beat some of the larger global majors in global bids.

The energy/resources sector in the UK has had a pretty rough time of it in the last few years, and under performed. On the other hand in my view they have some catching up to do

Also the risk on the single stock - BP is a great example. It was one of the highest yielding stocks in the FTSE the year before the oil spill, then next year the div was cut and the price tanked. While the SET may also tank, it will do less so than a single stock in crisis and at least some will continue paying a div.

I hold some BP shares in a GBP Long term div portfolio though for exactly the reasons you mention. Low P/E and high div yield. Plus the worst is behind it for the spill in my view. I bought about a year back.

I also hold Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) for P/E and div reasons again part of the same GBP long term div portfolio. For a bit of currency diversification I also hold Chevron (CVX) - similar P/E multiple 11ish, bit lower divs 3.35% (as the US tends to pay lower divs) as part of a USD Long term div portfolio. So yes, I go along with your idea of low P/Es solid divs, global reach, currency diversification. I have AUD, GBP, USD portfolios of up to about 10 high yielding divs in each currency all with solid blue chip decent div yields and energy/resource stocks come up quite a bit.

You mention Singapore. I like SGD as a currency - more stable than the baht - but follows the baht a bit closer than say USD or sterling so reducing your FX risk. Along with THB and some USD I hold some SGD cash as a store of value to reduce currency risk vs THB a little. Rates on USD and SGD cash are poor though - next to nothing - so I branched out and included some Singaporean div paying shares. I particularly like REITs in Singapore. Property is a big part of life there. There are some nice 6 to 7% yields too, like ART, FCT, FCOT. Singapore stocks tend to pay lower divs than GBP and AUD counterparts so the SGD + REIT/property + higher yield works nicely for the currency, sector diversification while adding a nice yield well above cash rates. P/E s are around 16 so a bit higher but then Singapore also tends to trade on higher multiples than Thailand. Not bad compared to the SET though!

Of course like you living in Thailand I want THB assets for the currency factor and like equities. So my largest holdings compared to any other asset class are in Thai equities via mutual funds. I don't really have the time to pick single Thai stocks. On a long term basis Thai mutual funds make sense to me, but all your other ideas mentioned are sound ones so as not to put all your eggs in one basket.

Cheers

Fletch

[cheeryble]

Thanks for the reply Fletch

I'm afraid I almost finished a substantial post to you yesterday and seem to have closed that browser and its down the swanny. On a beautiful morning I shall keep it quick.

I'm not an energy group freak at all, basically I was just using BP as a provoker (though i do admire them as an extraordinarily diverse and dynamic company).

You mention Singapore REITs.

Given the volatility which came with easing I am not a holder of juicy US REITs but your Sing REITs presumably have the stability which comes with a more modest 6-7% and deserve a look.

[midas]

You mention Singapore. I like SGD as a currency - more stable than the baht - but follows the baht a bit closer than say USD or sterling so reducing your FX risk. Along with THB and some USD I hold some SGD cash as a store of value to reduce currency risk vs THB a little. Rates on USD and SGD cash are poor though - next to nothing - so I branched out and included some Singaporean div paying shares. I particularly like REITs in Singapore. Property is a big part of life there. There are some nice 6 to 7% yields too, like ART, FCT, FCOT. Singapore stocks tend to pay lower divs than GBP and AUD counterparts so the SGD + REIT/property + higher yield works nicely for the currency, sector diversification while adding a nice yield well above cash rates. P/E s are around 16 so a bit higher but then Singapore also tends to trade on higher multiples than Thailand. Not bad compared to the SET though!

Cheers

Fletch

what is your assessment about the recent article in Forbes business magazine?

Is he right or not? It seems very well researched at least

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/01/13/why-singapores-economy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/2/

[fletchsmile]

Some interesting research in their as you say midas. Thanks for the article.

I'm not convinced though of the authors understanding of Singapore and context. It comes across as a bit overly academic and too much number crunching at times/ overly quantitative without enough qualitative assessment. Statistical comparisons to Iceland and the US are interesting, but they are very different places. Both Singapore and Iceland are islands, but Iceland is in the middle of nowhere, and far from being a hub of anything or anything significant in a region. Supply and demand for property for example are very different in Singapore and Iceland. Why would an individual other than an Icelander want to buy property in Iceland? Singapore is a small island, large demand for property. Foreigners may not necessarily own much Singaporean property, but rental of it, hotels, serviced apartments etc has some decent drivers. Again US and Singapore are very different countries.

That said he does highlight some risks. On the other hand though everywhere has its risks and most assets classes go thru cycles. Even when a bubble pops, the seeds are sown for the next bubble to start again in embrionic state.

For the REITS I mentioned they rely on income from rental streams, and my objective is income streams rather than capital appreciation. I see this as a different ball game (and lower risk) to relying on capital growth on property or buying your own property/condo. Yields of 6.6% to 7.6% aren't excessive and don't suggest overvaluations. In terms of P/Es the foward looking ranges don't seem unreasonable either, and the Singapore stockmarket isn't in a bubble in my view, eg up about 80% in 5 years isn't excessive given it follows the GFC. Lumping it with other Emerging markets also isn't that convincing given this factor. Thailand and Indonesia are up more like ball park 200% in 5 years.

Interesting though. Thanks

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

x2

[fletchsmile]

x3

[fletchsmile]

Thanks for the reply Fletch

I'm afraid I almost finished a substantial post to you yesterday and seem to have closed that browser and its down the swanny. On a beautiful morning I shall keep it quick.

I'm not an energy group freak at all, basically I was just using BP as a provoker (though i do admire them as an extraordinarily diverse and dynamic company).

You mention Singapore REITs.

Given the volatility which came with easing I am not a holder of juicy US REITs but your Sing REITs presumably have the stability which comes with a more modest 6-7% and deserve a look.

Yes annoying when you spend time typing and lose it.

As you say 6.6% - 7.6% is modest and for me at least some nice diversification in currency as well as asset class.

Like most people there are always areas of my portfolio doing better than others. If Singapore's economy and property market do tank as per the article from Forbes, something else will be compensating elsewhere in my portfolio and vice verse.

Cheers

Fletch

[midas]

Some interesting research in their as you say midas. Thanks for the article.

Did you see some of the readers comments after the article? Some of them were almost as enlightening as the article itself because many have been written by resident Singaporeans. Some agree with the article and some don’t.

I'm not convinced though of the authors understanding of Singapore and context. It comes across as a bit overly academic and too much number crunching at times/ overly quantitative without enough qualitative assessment. Statistical comparisons to Iceland and the US are interesting, but they are very different places. Both Singapore and Iceland are islands, but Iceland is in the middle of nowhere, and far from being a hub of anything or anything significant in a region.

But he says why he thinks they are similar is that they are both finance and property-driven island economies that everyone thought (or thinks) were safe havens because they were unaware of the underlying bubble. He said is not necessarily so that Singapore will follow Iceland 100% down to every technical nuance but inescapably in his opinion, the country is showing all of the hallmarks of a typical bubble economy.

Supply and demand for property for example are very different in Singapore and Iceland. Why would an individual other than an Icelander want to buy property in Iceland? Singapore is a small island, large demand for property. Foreigners may not necessarily own much Singaporean property, but rental of it, hotels, serviced apartments etc has some decent drivers. Again US and Singapore are very different countries.

That said he does highlight some risks. On the other hand though everywhere has its risks and most assets classes go thru cycles. Even when a bubble pops, the seeds are sown for the next bubble to start again in embrionic state.

But when you talk about cycles but in the past there was always wage growth but this isn't happening any more?. How can there be a cycle if property values keep going up but real incomes are going down. Look at the graph below to see just how serious this phenomena now is?

For the REITS I mentioned they rely on income from rental streams, and my objective is income streams rather than capital appreciation. I see this as a different ball game (and lower risk) to relying on capital growth on property or buying your own property/condo. Yields of 6.6% to 7.6% aren't excessive and don't suggest overvaluations. In terms of P/Es the foward looking ranges don't seem unreasonable either, and the Singapore stockmarket isn't in a bubble in my view, eg up about 80% in 5 years isn't excessive given it follows the GFC. Lumping it with other Emerging markets also isn't that convincing given this factor. Thailand and Indonesia are up more like ball park 200% in 5 years.

Interesting though. Thanks

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

Interesting to watch this year unfold.

Thailand has its domestic issues, yet the SET is holding up pretty well relatively so far - down around 2%, whereas many developed markets including US/UK etc are down more. So in many ways while this political mess is not ideal by any means the timing isn't too bad, as most other markets are having issues, and some of the damage is getting lost in other noise

Part of this is due to the fact Thailand had a poor year last year, and EMs didn't do as well, so is not as overvalued as it could have been.

US in particular looks overvalued, and I just read an article from GS which sounds a few alarm bells on a lot of different metrics.

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-market-valuation-is-lofty-2014-1

I've a feeling midas and those with a strong liking for gold may do will this year.

Gold miners are another area, and after having been beaten up badly in the last few years look attractive:

So in addition to adding to LTFs for me for the tax benefit:

For the kids I'll be sticking a little more in MFC Gold Fund and KTAM Mining Fund this year among others. No real appetite to add to US equities, but Aberdeen Europe is another I'll add to for them.

Cheers

Fletch

[fletchsmile]

I enjoyed the following article on Emerging Markets: Hunting for EM stock bargains

http://moneyweek.com/hunting-for-emerging-market-stock-bargains/

One of the themes was dividing EMs into 5 categories. Interesting to see which one people would say Thailand fits. Full categories are in the article, but I'll summarise:

(1) = economy seriously mismanaged and risk of meltdown. While TV punters often harp on about this (more often than not because they have other issues me thinks) I wouldn't put Thailand here with Venezuela, Ukraine, Argentina

(2) = lived beyond its means. eg S.Africa, Turkey, Indo and Chile. Perhaps a little of that here, but wouldn't put them here

(3) = Banking sector vulnerable, eg Hungary and Romania. Definitely wouldn't put Thailand here. The Banking sector these days is in reasonably good health, and the west and the US could learn a thing or too

The above 3 categories aren't really good places for your money, and it goes on to say 2 more, which are more investable:

(4) = Govts need to make changes, and the old models are reaching their limits. This is the largest EM category Sounds more like Thailand than the 3 above. Although compared to the examples of China, Brazil and India changes are needed in Thailand, but the country has already made a lot of changes particularly post 1997 and come a long way

(5) = countries looking brighter, economic reforms already going ahead, exports etc. eg South Korea and Mexico. I don't think Thailand is quite on a par with S.Korea, but maybe compared to Phillipines also mentioned

So all in all I'd put Thailand somewhere closer to (4) and (5) in the articles categories. There's long term value here..... and it's investable despite the government muppets and politics

Thailand is having some issues, but then again where and what isn't at the moment....?

Cheers

Fletch

[ExpatJ]

Interesting to watch this year unfold.

Thailand has its domestic issues, yet the SET is holding up pretty well relatively so far - down around 2%, whereas many developed markets including US/UK etc are down more. So in many ways while this political mess is not ideal by any means the timing isn't too bad, as most other markets are having issues, and some of the damage is getting lost in other noise

Part of this is due to the fact Thailand had a poor year last year, and EMs didn't do as well, so is not as overvalued as it could have been.

US in particular looks overvalued, and I just read an article from GS which sounds a few alarm bells on a lot of different metrics.

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-market-valuation-is-lofty-2014-1

I've a feeling midas and those with a strong liking for gold may do will this year.

Gold miners are another area, and after having been beaten up badly in the last few years look attractive:

So in addition to adding to LTFs for me for the tax benefit:

For the kids I'll be sticking a little more in MFC Gold Fund and KTAM Mining Fund this year among others. No real appetite to add to US equities, but Aberdeen Europe is another I'll add to for them.

Cheers

Fletch

Yes i agree US over bought alot. But i am bearish on gold (pity because i own far too much of the damn stuff ha!) because of the decent growth rates around the world.

[fletchsmile]

Some perspectives on Russia and EMs:

http://moneyweek.com/right-side-russia-is-struggling-is-it-time-to-invest/

I don't agree with a few points in the article, but it raises some interesting points.

I do think Russia is due a good year though and looks undervalued. A volatile ride though.

I own Neptune Russia and Greater Russia Fund

Cheers

Fletch