Demonstrations And Rallies Leading Up To The Election

[lukamar]

Former Opposition parties believe the general election on the 2nd of April will not end the political crisis

The three former Opposition parties believe the upcoming general election on the 2nd of April will not help solving the political crisis, where Chart Thai has proposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to halt his political activities. He said the neutral body should be invited to join the cabinet for constitutional amendment so that it will be fair for all sides.

Democrat Party leader Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva(อภิสิทธิ์ เวชชาชีวะ), Deputy Chart Thai party leader Somsak Prisanananthakul(สมศักดิ์ ปริศนานันทกุล) and Mahachon Party leader Sanan Khajornprasat(สนั่น ขจรประศาสน์) as the leaders of the three former Opposition parties jointly agreed that the general election will not solve the ongoing tension, especially the conflicts between the two sides of people.

Mr. Somsak indicated that to halt the current political issues, the premier should resign from his post after the general election. He said a respectful and appropriate figure should take the post of Prime Minister. He added that neutral figure should be invited to join the cabinet for the real political reform.

Whereas, Mahachon leader Sanan added that this the first time in the history where a massive group of people have demanded caretaker PM to resign from his post in a peaceful manner.

The three former Opposition parties have also encouraged Thai citizens to show up for the April 2nd election.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 31 March 2006

As we talked about this earlier today. It appears that the opposition parties are now officially the 'Former Opposition Parties" and I gave them untill April 2 when they lost their status, Silly me.....

[lukamar]

2. The Hells Angels Party riding their Harleys into Chiang Mai would be an appropriate party to go to the North.

2:- You completely lost me on that one. I guess it's some sort of analogy to some of the mafia type Pad leaders or something..

1.

As for your subsequent response to 1., re-read why he was there... and I don't think he expected to be welcome with open arms but I also don't think he expected to have his life threatened.

2. You proposed "some party" should go North and etc.....

I was simply suggesting a party that's usually well-equipped to deal with the likes of the hooligans the Democrats encountered... sorry you missed the sarcasm.

1:-I think in this day and age all politicians are aware of the fact they could be targeted by a radical group or an individual when they travel. That's why they are guarded so well by their own people. I'm not condoning the actions in CM but I can see why it happened. I can also see where his advisers may have misread the situation or the volatility of the trip, I'm sure they won't make the same mistake twice and will do a bit more groundwork next time. At least no one got killed on either side.

2:- It's ok you missed my "mafia type Pad leaders". bit... or did you....

[sriracha john]

Is it that difficult for some to separate the difference between verbal and physical confrontation?

The difference between verbal and physical violence lies just in the degree, but stems from the same emotional condition.

hmm... I guess it IS that difficult for some then...

ok, let's look at it another way.... getting hit by a "word salad" of swearing doesn't cause one to bleed... (eg. the verbal violence at the Silom market)

whereas getting hit by a thrown chair does (eg. the physical violence at Chiang Mai). Not counting the disaster-potential of crashing trucks against fences near a stage.... if the fence gives way and the truck goes through..

If it's still unclear in people's minds.... maybe Lukamar, who likes to quote sayings, might explain it with this one...

"sticks and stones may break my bones

but words will NEVER harm me".....

[Jai Dee]

Mr. Suranand is regretful over the occuerrence of the chaos during the Democrat party's rally

Executive member of Thai Rak Thai Party Suranand Vejjajiva (สุรนันทน์ เวชชาชีวะ) is regretful over yesterday’s disordered situation while the Democrat Party’s was addressing its decision of boycotting the upcoming general election.

Mr. Suranand has asked people to carefully consider their plans before implementation. He has also requested every side to avoid using inappropriate words during their addresses as he fears that such verbal attack will further escalate the political conflicts.

He, however, said that every party should discuss their different opinions in the parliament rather than holding the rally as it is deemed undemocratic.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 31 March 2006

[sriracha john]

As we talked about this earlier today. It appears that the opposition parties are now officially the 'Former Opposition Parties" and I gave them untill April 2 when they lost their status, Silly me.....

not surprising you missed it.... you miss a lot..

you still call him the PM when he's actually been the caretaker PM since dissolving the House

[jdinasia]

Bangkok Post ... today .... I won't print the whole article or highlight in Red ...

POLITICS / RIVALS' TUG-OF-WAR CONTINUES

Opposition keen to explain poll boycott

PREEYANAT PHANAYANGGOOR

Ubon Ratchathani _ There is no relaxing for members of the opposition camp even though they are not running in Sunday's election as a result of the three parties' decision to boycott the polls. Two former Democrat MPs for Ubon Ratchathani, Withoon Nambutr and Issara Somchai, say they are working hard explaining to voters why they are not running because they fear losing support to Thai Rak Thai if people do not understand.

[jdinasia]

Great Faith in TRT and the Elections being clean ...

BP--- today

Bangkokians promise to vote

People in Bangkok and the capital region say they will vote on Sunday, but barely 20% claim they will vote for Thai Rak Thai, the only major party running.

A survey conducted by Rangsit University from March last Tuesday and Wednesday found that 45.4% of respondents intend to vote "No Vote," the absention choice on all ballots.

The next most popular choice was Thai Rak Thai. But just 20% said they would vote for the government party. Another 4.5% claimed they will vote for fringe party candidates while 10.9% told the interviewers their intentions were secret.

A solid majority of 57.5% of respondents believed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra should not return to office, while 23.1% supported him to continue.

A minuscule 6.5% feel the election will be clean and transparent this Sunday, while most expect the polls to be dirty and corrupt.

Nearly 70% of respondents said they believe political turmoil will continue, while 14.1% were optimistic that chaos would die down and a full 17.6% said they couldn't even guess what the future holds for Thai politics. -(TNA)

[Thaible]

Bangkok Post ... today .... I won't print the whole article or highlight in Red ...

POLITICS / RIVALS' TUG-OF-WAR CONTINUES

Opposition keen to explain poll boycott

PREEYANAT PHANAYANGGOOR

Ubon Ratchathani _ There is no relaxing for members of the opposition camp even though they are not running in Sunday's election as a result of the three parties' decision to boycott the polls. Two former Democrat MPs for Ubon Ratchathani, Withoon Nambutr and Issara Somchai, say they are working hard explaining to voters why they are not running because they fear losing support to Thai Rak Thai if people do not understand.

How much time do they need to explain to people that they didn't run because they were going to lose anyways?

You can bet they're regretting their boycott now. A group calling themselves "Democrats" are boycotting an election - what a farce.

[Plus]

For months now Thaksin supporters had to listen to heftiest abuse against their idol Thaksin that was voiced during the rallies, had to listen to accusations that they are only stupid people that were bought.

I never heard PAD calling farmers stupid, I think you put your ideas in their mouth. I also doubt that pro-Thaksin protesters listened to even one PAD rally, only to what their handlers told them. Who is resonsible for restricting news coverage of PAD rallies? Thaksin.

At fault are the leaders of both sides who are not able to sit down, negotiate, and find a compromise.

And we know who tried to weasel out of negotiations at all costs - Thaksin.

Passing the blame for the use of violence on Opposition themselves is a poor excuse for the perpetrators and organisers of the actual acts commited.

Who should be held responsible? Who were the organisers? Were they TRT members? State officials? Who will come and own up?

If it happened at PAD rallies you'd immediately put the blame on PAD leaders.

Who are the organisers of the Nation offices blockade? It has gone beyond reasonable protests and into media harassment.

Why not just say the name - Thaksin. His minions, in his name and in his support.

I can also see where his advisers may have misread the situation or the volatility of the trip, I'm sure they won't make the same mistake twice and will do a bit more groundwork next time.

It wasn't a spontaneous reaction of a crowd who suddenly spotted Abhisit in the airport lounge - it was an organised event, and not by some unknown "terrorist" group.

edited - something's gone wrong with quotes

Edited March 31, 2006 by Plus

[ColPyat]

"sticks and stones may break my bones

but words will NEVER harm me".....

Well, nice that you are either extremely thick skinned, enlightened, or a saint.

But you can't expect that from ordinary humans.

Both verbal violence and physical violence intent to cause hurt. Hurt does draw reactions, that draw stronger counter reactions, that cause a further escalation.

Life generally is not made up of singular events, but of a chain of interdependent actions and reactions. Buddhism has some rather fascinating theories on those subjects.

[lukamar]

As we talked about this earlier today. It appears that the opposition parties are now officially the 'Former Opposition Parties" and I gave them untill April 2 when they lost their status, Silly me.....

not surprising you missed it.... you miss a lot..

you still call him the PM when he's actually been the caretaker PM since dissolving the House

At least I manage to say something that relates to the quote I use. Your reply only makes sense to you. It appears you resort to snide comments whenever you get a little short in the thought process. It's Ok we understand and there is help available for that.

BTW - Where did I call Thaksin the PM in that quote you got there, Didn't happen. I think you are getting a bit delusional.

[jdinasia]

oh please .... it takes a rare type to equate 3 shopkeepers yelling at Thaksin from a distance to people throwing things and attacking ....

and if you're gonna start bringing Buddhism into it ... well ... oi ....

Edited March 31, 2006 by jdinasia

[Plus]

Both verbal violence and physical violence intent to cause hurt. Hurt does draw reactions, that draw stronger counter reactions, that cause a further escalation.

Life generally is not made up of singular events, but of a chain of interdependent actions and reactions.

Nice way of absolving of any responsibility.

[ColPyat]

It wasn't a spontaneous reaction of a crowd who suddenly spotted Abhisit in the airport lounge - it was an organised event, and not by some unknown "terrorist" group.

If you haven't heard especially Sondhi calling rural Thaksin supporters stupid, then you should listen a bit closer to the actual speaches, and not just read the heavily edited versions of the Nation.

Regarding the incident in Chiangmai, and the organisation of the event, it is most definately a bit more complex than Thaksin allegedly organising the whole thing. Every local person of influence has thousands of street fighters to his avail. He doesn't need to "hire" them, as they are his 'look nongs'. This is part of the prevailing Thai patronage system.

Local persons of influence do operate in most cases rather independent, even though they have a face allegiance to a person of even larger influence.

Thai society, especially in the murky world of politics, underworld and business, is made up of evershifting alliances depending on immediate benefit factors. It is basically impossible to retrace the steps of where the decision of intervening in the Democrat's speach was made.

One can only speculate here, and my educated guess is that Thaksin was livid, as it is not in his present interest to have the TRT at the present moment appear as anything but peaceful and democratic. You can accuse Thaksin of many things, stupid though he is not. That though does not count for many of his allied local persons of influence.

The TRT is made up of many, often conflicting, groups of vested interests. The whole construct is held together by Thaksin being beneficial to each those groups, and by him masterfully playing the different fractions off against each other. These groups though have in their local power bastions almost free hand to decide on particular immediate actions. And some of these actions do not only regularly run counter to government policy, but are outright stupid as well.

[ColPyat]

Both verbal violence and physical violence intent to cause hurt. Hurt does draw reactions, that draw stronger counter reactions, that cause a further escalation.

Life generally is not made up of singular events, but of a chain of interdependent actions and reactions.

Nice way of absolving of any responsibility.

Has nothing to do with absolution of responsibility.

Within this chain of actions and reactions every individual has the freedom to decide for himself what course of action he takes, or doesn't take.

Therefore i hold all sides involved in the escalation process responsible.

[Jai Dee]

Last Public Warning

From the Forum Rules:

Excessive, aggressive posts against other members, moderators and admin; or flaming will not be tolerated. 'Flaming' is best defined as posting or responding to a message in a way clearly intended to incite useless arguments, rants, and/or for launching personal attacks, insulting, being hateful, useless criticism, name calling, swearing and other bad behavior or comments meant to incite anger.

Do not post inflammatory messages on the forum, or any attempt to disrupt discussions to upset its participants. The word, or its derivative, "trolling", is used to describe such messages or the act of posting them.

Please keep on topic and personal attacks out of this thread.

[jdinasia]

Information finally etting out in Isaan ....

BP ... today

POLITICS / RIVALS' TUG-OF-WAR CONTINUES

Dissent stirs in TRT bastion

Northeast middle class losing faith in Thaksin

PREEYANAT PHANAYANGGOOR

Si Sa Ket _ Thai Rak Thai is no doubt the most popular party in the Northeast, especially among rural people for its populist policies, but in recent weeks, middle-class folk in the region have begun to voice discontent with the Thaksin-led administration in their own unique ways. Chaicharn Foithong and Panya Bunmawong, electronics shop owners in Kantharalak district, have put up a large projector to broadcast the ASTV satellite channel's coverage of the rally in Bangkok led by the People's Alliance for Democracy, in front of their shop every evening for the past few weeks.

The broadcasts are aimed at getting their neighbours to catch up on news of the Bangkok rallies and learn more about the Thaksin regime, something they say is absent from state-owned media.

''We used to be TRT supporters. But after watching ASTV programmes, we have become suspicious about state policies, particularly privatisation and the adverse impact of free trade agreements,'' said Mr Chaicharn.

Scores of people turn up at his shop regularly to watch the broadcasts.

The couple occasionally organises open-air seminars, inviting lawyers and academics in the province to discuss the political situation.

They also produce and distribute free VCDs and leaflets about the Thaksin regime to customers and people in nearby villages, using their own money.

Mrs Panya said she was glad that more people have started to learn about the other side of the Thaksin government.

''I believe we have managed to change the opinions of more than 100 customers about Mr Thaksin and we hope this will be reflected on poll day, with more voters choosing the no-vote box.''

In Khon Kaen, a group of leading doctors and medical personnel from Khon Kaen University's faculty of medicine has become more active in the anti-Thaksin movement in the province. Over 500 medical staff marched along the streets to show their disapproval of the Thaksin government last Friday.

Dr Boonsong Patjanasoontorn, one of the core leaders, said around 10-20 doctors held a daily meeting during their lunch break for nearly two weeks to discuss the political situation and the strategy for the anti-Thaksin movement in Khon Kaen.

They also erected a stage in the hospital for the doctors to tell the public about problems with the government.

''We hope our involvement in the rally will help attract more people who silently disagree with Mr Thaksin, to come out and be part of the movement,'' he said.

Academics at Ubon Ratchathani University have also prepared leaflets about the government that are simple enough for villagers to understand.

Prakob Virojkood, rector of the university and a regular visitor to anti-Thaksin rallies in the province, said the leaflets would help rural people understand complicated issues such as the Shin Corp sell-off.

Somphant Techa-atik of Khon Kaen University's faculty of humanities and social sciences, said the small but widespread anti-government movement in the Northeast would be reflected in the results of the upcoming election.

''The TRT party will see its votes shrink, particularly in constituency 1 which is an urban area while those ticking the no-vote box will rise sharply,'' he said.

He expressed concern over election fraud, particularly in areas with one-horse races where TRT is required to get more than 20% of the eligible vote.

[Jai Dee]

PAD plans major offensive after election

The Election Commissioners bore the brunt of yesterday's protest by the People’s Alliance for Democracy

In an impromptu decision yesterday, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) added one night to its demonstration at the Election Commission (EC) headquarters on Rama I Road to demand the resignations of all four members of the commission.

Yesterday morning, the anti-caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin coalition led protesters to the Srijulasap Building, where the EC is housed, following a full-scale rally on the road in front of the Siam Paragon, Siam Center and Siam Discovery up-market shopping complexes on Wednesday night. A group of PAD followers slept on the pavement outside the EC offices that night to await the arrival of their compatriots yesterday morning.

Despite announcing earlier that anti-Thaksin activities would cease temporarily after a small march on the National Police Force headquarters and the EC office block yesterday morning, both located short distances away on Rama I, but in opposite directions, PAD resolved to continue its rally outside the EC offices until this morning, to exert greater pressure on the four election commissioners, whom PAD branded Thaksin’s cronies, to resign.

On arrival, the demonstrators, together with the protesters who were already there, blocked off all the exits from and entrances into the Srijulasap Building.

Taking turns on stage, the five PAD core leaders announced the extension of the rallying because PAD’s charges that Thaksin has violated election laws are being ignored, and to demand the cancellation of Sunday’s snap election.

The PAD leaders argued that the evidence given to the EC is sufficient to annul Thaksin’s candidacy.

PAD’s evidence against Thaksin includes pictures and video footage of him handing out cash to people at campaign rallies.

“We cannot allow the election to continue. It will be like destroying the country,” said Pipob Thongchai, one of the five PAD leaders. “The crisis of the country’s leadership will remain after the election and will plague the country for decades to come if we fail.”

The four commissioners – Chairman Pol Gen Vassana Permlarp, Prinya Nakchudtree, Gen Charupat Ruangsuwan and Virachai Naewboonnien – were inside the building, but they refused to come out to meet the demonstrators.

Later in the afternoon, several technical college students taking part in PAD’s rally against EC tried to search the trunks of all vehicles leaving the building to see whether any commissioners were hidden there.

Several hundred police offices were called in to provide security for the commissioners and to block demonstrators from entering the building.

EC Chairman Vassana insisted, from inside the building, that EC needs to review the charges in detail before it can take action against Thaksin. He refused to meet PAD leaders and claimed that he had a heavy workload to clear as the election was only three days away.

Vassana also announced that the PAD complaint has been delegated to a sub-committee for review, which will take 10 days to conduct investigations due to the large amount of evidence.

“It will not help because it all depends on evidence,” he said. “I have told the sub-committee to review the video evidence, and, if there are doubts, the suspected candidates will be called in for questioning.”

“The images are clear, but the problem we must resolve is, why [money] was given,” Vassana said. “Dishing out money does not necessarily mean vote-buying.”

“I am not helping anyone but we must question all those involve and we must be fair towards all.”

Vassana said that the EC will not hesitate to summon Thaksin for questioning if the evidence against him is strong enough.

By evening, PAD had finished setting up a makeshift stage in front of the EC building and the rally was supplemented by tens of thousands of new demonstrators.

Source: ThaiDay - 31 Mar 2006

[Plus]

“The images are clear, but the problem we must resolve is, why [money] was given,” Vassana said. “Dishing out money does not necessarily mean vote-buying.”

He wants to find the part where Thaksin turns to the camera and tells in a slow and clear voice: "I'm giving this money to these students to vote for TRT".

After that PAD will have to prove that he referred to this coming elections and not some elections in general.

Truly, the opportunities for pursuing legal options against TRT have not been been fully explored yet.

Clowns.

[Jai Dee]

About 3,000 angry protesters gather at the Nation Group’s headquarters yesterday responding to a ‘Kom Chad Luek’ report concerning HM the King.

Thousands of anti-Thaksin demonstrators participating in the People’s Alliance for Democracy rally yesterday march from the Siam Paragon shopping mall to protest in front of the Election Commission’s offices.

Tens of thousands of members of the People’s Alliance for Democracy gather underneath Siam Skytrain station yesterday. The rally occupied a section of Rama I Road stretching from the main stage in front of Siam Paragon to the Pathum Wan Intersection.

The journey to the heart of the city’s shopping quarter allowed more white-collar workers to join the rally.

[Plus]

Within this chain of actions and reactions every individual has the freedom to decide for himself what course of action he takes, or doesn't take.

Therefore i hold all sides involved in the escalation process responsible.

It doesn't follow - every individual has freedom to decide but ALL sides are responsible.

TRT organisers are resposible for disrupting Democrats rally, not some songs, not some books, not PAD, not Sondhi.

As Thaksin gets credit for all TRT's actions and all the support, he should also take blame for all wrongdoings they've done in his name. To be fair - he should apologise, organisers should be punished, and if there were any criminal actions, perpetrators should be charged.

[ColPyat]

“We cannot allow the election to continue. It will be like destroying the country,” said Pipob Thongchai, one of the five PAD leaders. “The crisis of the country’s leadership will remain after the election and will plague the country for decades to come if we fail.”

So, what can they do. The election will continue as so far nobody they have appealed to has responded on their demands.

Far more destructive to the country than a continued rule of Thaksin will be a continued escalation of the situation.

Just imagine the reaction of the upcountry supporters of TRT if the case would come that Thaksin is forced to resign? Do you honestly think that they will sit idle? Thailand will have to deal with possibly far worse demonstrations and social unrest than now.

Politics is the ability to objectively asses a given situation, consider all possible consequences, and to to act accordingly. Politics is not to base ones actions on wishful thinking and childish idealism. Everybody has personal agendas, but they must be brought into compromise with other's personal agendas.

What happens here is increasingly insane, and both sides lose rapidly sight of the big picture, that is the welfare of all citicens, and hereby risk the long term future development of Thailand.

I doubt that at the present situation Thaksin even could resign if wanted to without causing large scale civil unrest. Both sides are so entrenched in their positions that in case Thaksin resigns his supporters will only blame the other side of dirty games.

The only solution to this mess is to get ASAP to the negotiation table, get politics off the streets and let things calm down for a while. It does not matter who makes the first step - it has to be made by one.

If this is not done violence will occur, and then everybody has lost, regardless of Thaksin stepping down or not. And both sides will be held equally responsible for being too blockheaded to defuse a sitation where there was ample time to do so.

[ColPyat]

Within this chain of actions and reactions every individual has the freedom to decide for himself what course of action he takes, or doesn't take.

Therefore i hold all sides involved in the escalation process responsible.

It doesn't follow - every individual has freedom to decide but ALL sides are responsible.

As long as every individual just reacts to the situation created by previous actions instead of taking conscious action to break the chain of action and reaction that have created the escalation, all sides are responsible for the consequences generated by this chain of interdependent events.

[frodo]

Within this chain of actions and reactions every individual has the freedom to decide for himself what course of action he takes, or doesn't take.

Therefore i hold all sides involved in the escalation process responsible.

It doesn't follow - every individual has freedom to decide but ALL sides are responsible.

TRT organisers are resposible for disrupting Democrats rally, not some songs, not some books, not PAD, not Sondhi.

As Thaksin gets credit for all TRT's actions and all the support, he should also take blame for all wrongdoings they've done in his name. To be fair - he should apologise, organisers should be punished, and if there were any criminal actions, perpetrators should be charged.

The pro-Thaksin antics just won't stop.

Hundreds of motorcyclists rally in front of Manger Group head office

Hundreds of motorcyclists staged a noisy protest at the head office of Manager Group of Sondhi Limthongkul now.

A live coverage from ASTV showed the motorcyclists arriving and staging a blockade on the Tha Pha Arthit Raod for five minutes at 5 pm and dispersed soon.

They kept shouting "Sondhi get out" during the protest. Manager Online said some motorcyclists also threw things into the compound of Manager Group and some climbed into the compound.

But Manager Group blared a song in satire of Thaksin to fight back at the shouts of the motorcyclists.

Some residents in the neighbourhood also came out to shout "Thaksin get out".

How far will these people go? So far, PAD has only one incident. On the other hand, pro-Thaksin forces have continually attempted to incite a lot of violence. Words are one thing, but to physically throw chairs, paint, water, junk, punch, hit, threaten, or to demand a physical turnover of a editor is by far worse than PAD has ever done. I do believe that if violence esculates further it will be on the hands of TRT since it is their supporters who are creating the mayhem.

source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30000645

[Plus]

Colpyat, I think you overestimate the troubles that might occure should Thaksin resign. Of course he has power to mobilise his supporters, and power to prevent them from violent actions, too.

On the other hand everyone thinks that the situation will only escalate should he decide to stay and cling to power. The ball is in his court and he's running out of options.

For him the only easy way out is if he get less than 50% of votes, he wouldn't know what to do if he gets more than that - the protests will not stop and problems won't go away.

I mean he called the elections hoping that demonstrators will accept the results (if they go his way). Now it's clear that the results will not be accepted - not with the EC blatantly disregarding any evidence of TRT's wrongdoing and fake candidates scam.

Edited March 31, 2006 by Plus

[britmaveric]

After a mandate is secure - you watch a major crackdown is on its way.

[Plus]

That's a suicide road for him. The army won't get involved, too.

[ColPyat]

Colpyat, I think you overestimate the troubles that might occure should Thaksin resign. Of course he has power to mobilise his supporters, and power to prevent them from violent actions, too.

On the other hand everyone thinks that the situation will only escalate should he decide to stay and cling to power. The ball is in his court and he's running out of options.

For him the only easy way out is if he get less than 50% of votes, he wouldn't know what to do if he gets more than that - the protests will not stop and problems won't go away.

I mean he called the elections hoping that demonstrators will accept the results (if they go his way). Now it's clear that the results will not be accepted - not with the EC blatantly disregarding any evidence of TRT's wrongdoing and fake candidates scam.

I do not think that i overestimate the consequences. You are right in saying that he has the power to mobilize his supporters, but i doubt that he has the power to prevent them from violent actions. Things have a tendency to develop beyond anyone's control.

Look at the other side of the fence, even Mahatma Ghandhi did not have the power to prevent his supporters from extreme violence, how can you suggest that a crooked man like Thaksin who has shown that he himself is not beyond using violent means to achieve his aims could have that power. I believe you credit him with a bit too much there.

It is wishful thinking that he would get less than 50% of the votes, more than that will only strengthen his resolve to maybe deal with the protestors in a violent way, and than he will have the majority of the country behind his back. Right now army is already pulled massively into Bangkok and even more will come in the coming days.

The PAD could easily find itself in a very difficult position, being in the numerical minority and having no ace left to play. The question here is not about a fuzzy moral highground that every side claims for itself, it is a numbers game.

This makes the present situation very different from any other crisis Thailand has seen. Thaksin does have the clear backing of the majority of the population, and if the forecasts are true the elections will only confirm that. If not, the i would be only too glad, but unfortunately...

No other elected or nonelected politician in Thailand had that before. Therefore every institutional power in Thailand will look very carefully on whom they will back, and i fear that the moral considerations the PAD puts into the foreground will play the smallest role.

You, or the PAD may cry foul as long as you want, but as long as the numbers are on Thaksin's side he has the power. The smart thing is to concede partial defeat, negotiate the most favourable conditions before the elections, and continue later when conditions become more favourable.

After the elections things might easily turn nasty. And that should be in the interest of nobody.

[camerata]

There's an interesting article about the economic consequences of the current political turmoil on the Asia Times website. The last three paragraphs talk about a likely depreciation of the baht:

These realities will also make it difficult for Thailand's private sector to roll over its mounting short-term external liabilities, which amounted to $17 billion, or 33% of total external debt at the end of 2005. With foreign inflows increasingly scarce in 2006, Thailand will be forced to draw down its foreign exchange reserves by as much as $15 billion to finance net outflows of foreign portfolio investment and its larger current account deficit. This implies that a significant depreciation of the baht is probable in 2006.

Baht depreciation could be intensified by domestic capital flight if concerns arise about possible capital controls. In May 1997, the Bank of Thailand implemented capital controls to contain building devaluation pressure on the baht. These measures severely limited the ability of Thais to shelter assets offshore in foreign currencies.

In July 1997, the baht was devalued by 20% and by the end of that fateful year the depreciation of the baht against the US dollar exceeded 80%. As Thailand's political and social crisis deepens in the months ahead, and with it confidence in the economy, a new financial and balance of payments crisis cannot be ruled out.

[kyselak]

NEWSMAKER-Ageing ex-general tries to overthrow second Thai PM

By Nopporn Wong-Anan

BANGKOK, March 31 (Reuters) - Fourteen years after leading

a bloody "people power" uprising, ascetic Buddhist and maverick

ex-general Chamlong Srimuang is back on the streets of Bangkok

trying to bring down a government.

This time, however, his target is not an unelected military

man sitting in the prime minister's office; it is Thaksin

Shinawatra, the telecoms tycoon he helped usher into politics

11 years ago.

A 70-year-old veteran of the Vietnam War, Chamlong says he

has a moral obligation to stop his "rogue son" from causing

further damage to the economic and social fabric of Thailand, a

nation of 63 million people.

"As a father, I have to cane this rogue son who has imposed

so many serious mistakes on the country and kick him out of

office," Chamlong told reporters on Friday at his sit-in

protest outside Thaksin's Government House offices.

A two-time Bangkok governor in the late 1980s and rare "Mr.

Clean" in Thai politics, Chamlong's presence gave a major boost

to an ad hoc street coalition against Thaksin, drawing one

crowd of 130,000 people.

For Chamlong, who still sports a military buzz-cut despite

his advancing years, it was a familiar role.

In 1992, he was the central figure in a mass uprising

against the appointment of General Suchinda Kraprayoon as prime

minister of Thailand, which was then enjoying a very on-off

relationship with democracy.

Troops killed around 50 demonstrators before revered King

Bhumibol Adulyadej intervened, summoning Suchinda and Chamlong

to the royal palace for an audience at which the pair

prostrated themselves at his feet.

Suchinda departed in disgrace three days later.

While many elevated Chamlong to national hero for his

front-line role in the protests, others accused him of leading

students to needless deaths in a personal bid for glory.

Chamlong denies the charge, saying he had been arrested

days before troops started firing into the crowds.

IRON DISCIPLINE

The son of an immigrant Chinese fish seller, Chamlong grew

up as a disciple of the puritanical Santi Asoke Buddhist sect,

instilling in him a sense of morality rare among Thai

politicians.

Even now, he washes each day in only three bowls of water.

After an army career fighting communists in the jungles of

Laos and Vietnam, he entered government but stepped down in

protest at a law making abortion more accessible.

A campaign of no vote buying or smearing of rivals swept

him to the post of Bangkok governor in the 1980s and led to the

formation of his Palang Dharma, or Moral Force, party -- the

so-called Dharma Army now lined up against Thaksin.

As governor, he was credited with cleaning up the sprawling

capital's streets, canals and public markets.

Now he is attempting a similar job with the office of prime

minister, which he says has been besmirched by corruption,

cronyism and autocracy during Thaksin's five years in power.

His faded blue cotton shirt and sandals could not contrast

more strongly with the designer jackets preferred by his

billionaire opponent.

"Why do we have to waste our money on showering elsewhere?

I can bathe with three bowls of water and I believe our

brothers and sisters and nieces and nephews can too," he told

one rally.

"I've made many mistakes in my life, but the biggest was

bringing Thaksin into politics."

(Additional Reporting by Pracha Hariraksapitak)

REUTERS

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