Bangkok Hotel Bookings Seen Down 10 Pct In March Amid Political Crisis

[Rhys]

Friends will not come to Thailand... Will meet them in Japan.

[ray23]

Baht to the dollar

4-1-2005 39.120

4-1-2006 38.869

Not a lot of difference but some.

I think research will show that at the moment there really isn't much showing as to the rates.

Inflation is very real though, try buying some fuel

[warriors]

Was a tourist before. Brought my retirement funds over from N.Z. at 28.3 BAHT TO N.Z. $. In August last year.

Lucky me.

I do not stay in Hotels any more.

I am going back to N.Z. in July this year for 6 weeks.

My hope is the bhat will be back to 27 baht to the N.Z.$ by then.

I await to see, if not who cares, I will just send another 800,000 over and get my R VISA stamp.

I love this place.

[bulmercke]

Baht to the dollar

4-1-2005 39.120

4-1-2006 38.869

Not a lot of difference but some.

I think research will show that at the moment there really isn't much showing as to the rates.

Inflation is very real though, try buying some fuel

Thaksin, to some extent, is controlling the value of the baht to the dollar.

Don't you think it's strange that despite all this political turmoil and uncertainty - the baht remains strong. Yet another move by the government to shore up the economy before this Sunday's election.

Incidentally, Thaksin is operating this currency exchange operation through the Thai Military Bank - which is effectively his own bank and over which he exerts control.

Also, did you know that Phayathai hospital in BKK is owned by Thaksin?

[Stacking Zeds]

The Baht has shot up against the yen too.

It was about 2.65 yen to one baht when I went to Thailand in October. Now it's about 3.15 yen to one baht. That's a 20 per cent drop for the yen. At the same time, the yen has risen against the dollar.

Japan and Thailand concluded a free trade agreement late last year so there has been a scramble for certain commodities. This probably affected cross-rates in some way also.

Bottom line, it's a real p***er for everyone.

[Jersey_UK]

The drop in arrivals couldn't be anything to do with tourists (and everyone else) being told they have to go back to their rooms at 1am or 2am or whenever the BIB decide to close down places on any particular night, could it? Or that they run the risk of arrest if they don't carry their passport every time they go out? Or they can't pop into 7-11 for a beer in the middle of a tropical afternoon? Or they face the prospect of being drug-tested while out for the evening? Or that prices are rising so sharply that Thailand is no longer the good deal that it used to be when compared to some of the neighbouring countries?

No. It couldn't possibly.

I agree with you pretty much 100%, I suspect that in 10 years time that many folk in Thailand will be wondering why their Tourism Industry declined. But S.E.P.

[Norfolk Tractor Boy]

The drop in arrivals couldn't be anything to do with tourists (and everyone else) being told they have to go back to their rooms at 1am or 2am or whenever the BIB decide to close down places on any particular night, could it? Or that they run the risk of arrest if they don't carry their passport every time they go out? Or they can't pop into 7-11 for a beer in the middle of a tropical afternoon? Or they face the prospect of being drug-tested while out for the evening? Or that prices are rising so sharply that Thailand is no longer the good deal that it used to be when compared to some of the neighbouring countries?

No. It couldn't possibly.

Things must have changed since i was last there in 2004 (songkran) never had any of the hassle you mention?

Is this to be expected when i come over for xmas/new year 2006/7 ?

[ColPyat]

Things must have changed since i was last there in 2004 (songkran) never had any of the hassle you mention?

Is this to be expected when i come over for xmas/new year 2006/7 ?

Yes, things have changed.

Police controls specifically targetting foreigners have increased. Which doesn't mean that you shouldn't come. Just be sensible, take your passport around wherever you go, and do not carry drugs, or use drugs. Depending where you go, there is a slim chance that you might get caught up in a pisstest, or have to show your passport.

[Terminator]

i just look at the state of nightlife here and the cost of it, compared to other parts of asia and europe not that cheap anymore, i think prices for tourist are almost at par here.

as for the LON, look at their attitude these days, instead of being the friendly hostesses they used to be they've become hungry money grabbing bitches, and the word gets spread around, believe you me!

plus the poor infrastructure, agening facilities, crimes against tourist being committed and worsening services are al taking its toll, and that was well before this political crisis was happening.

[millwall_fan]

I'm not surprised bookings are down either, tourists dont like even the scent of political upheaval, even though, so far no tourist has even remotelybeen in danger.

The baht has strengthened since around Christmas time due to an inflow of capital: if something is in demand it appreciates in value. My homespun economic opinion is that it will not last much longer and the baht should start to weaken again around the middle of the year, though not by much as the fundementals of the Thai economy remain quite strong- that is unless there is political upheaval after the election.

As a point of fact, the baht is not tied to the US dollar and hasnt been for many years, it is tied to a basket of currencies that includes the dollar.

[LaoPo]

How wrong can we be about Thai tourism?....Very!

Thailand drew about 11.700.000 million of tourists in 2004 (the figures of 2005 are not complete yet) of which the vast majority is from East Asia or 56.5% !!!

'We' are just looking at 'whities' and that's a big mistake. We probably don't even 'see' the tourists from other than 'white/west' countries.

The figures, more or less, are as follows:

East Asia 6.6 Million or 56.5% of total arrival in tourists or PLUS 14.85% (2003)

Europe 2.8 Million or 24.3% """ or PLUS 13.27%

The Americas 0.8 Million or 7.02% """ or PLUS 21.3%

South Asia 0.5 Million or 4.2% """ or PLUS 21.04%

Oceania 0.48 Million or 4.13% """ or PLUS 33.68%

Middle East 0.272 Million 2.32% """ or PLUS 45.20%

Africa 0.0915 Million or PLUS 23.18%

source: TAT Thailand.

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/download/1204/nat-1-12.xls

The figures for 2005 would maybe not so spectacular as for 2004, due to the effects because of the Tsunami and Bird flu outbreak, but generally speaking the No. of tourists is still rising.

But...that's a World-wide trend and is nothing special for Thailand.

LaoPo

Edited April 2, 2006 by LaoPo

[denby45]

i just look at the state of nightlife here and the cost of it, compared to other parts of asia and europe not that cheap anymore, i think prices for tourist are almost at par here.

as for the LON, look at their attitude these days, instead of being the friendly hostesses they used to be they've become hungry money grabbing bitches, and the word gets spread around, believe you me!

plus the poor infrastructure, agening facilities, crimes against tourist being committed and worsening services are al taking its toll, and that was well before this political crisis was happening.

I have to agree here. I don't get to Thailand much but the last twice I have been there (Patty) I also had the impression the girls are rip off merchants.

Never mind the golf is still good.

My advice is forget the Thais and get yourself a Chinese girl friend. You will not regret it I promise.

I'm working in Abu Dhabi for the last three years and have been lucky enough to be involved with the loverly Chinese girls here. Actually we have a sort of Expat/Chinese community now and I've never had so much fun in all my life. The girls generally are smart, beautiful, funny, look after you very well and are extremely trustworthy. I don't get that impression about the Thai girls. Sorry just my tuppence worth

Den

[cutter007]

The US Secretary of the Treasury remains Mr. John Snow. The new face is Ben S. Bernanke as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board which just raised the US prime interest rate 25 basis points. This strengthens the dollar because it makes US bonds more desirable to foreign investors. Actually, if the Thai baht is floating against the dollar, US dollars should start to buy more than 38 baht. Perhaps the exchange rate to the dollar is controlled somewhere.

The former chairman, Alan Greenspan is predicting a fall in the value of the dollar because he predicts that foreign governments will move out of US treasury bonds in the future.

So who can tell what will happen? I sure can't.

Just about everyones explaination as to the baht exchange to foreign currencies are missing one valueable piece of information. The baht is manipulated by the Bank of Thailand. So all explanations that involve free market economic principles are debatable if not completely void.

Basically, when you are talking fluctuations of 2 or 3 baht difference between the baht and major currencies, their is little explanination as to why, other than because that is the way the Bank of Thailand wants it. Large fluntuations are out of their control, and are a result of dozens of free market variables.

[cclub75]

Just about everyones explaination as to the baht exchange to foreign currencies are missing one valueable piece of information. The baht is manipulated by the Bank of Thailand. So all explanations that involve free market economic principles are debatable if not completely void.

Touché.

And we should add : how strange that this is happening exactly when Taksin faces some problems.

THB is raising... the time for T to buy some assets abroad ?

Anyway, he had a least one good motive to try to influence THB : he sold Shin for an amount in THB (the transactions were settled on the stock exchange).

As other people noticed : THB has increased against ALL currencies, even the asian ones (Singapore, HK, Yen etc.) and frankly speaking the economic situation is not rosy.

Check the graphic for 3 months :

http://www.ratesfx.com/visualizations/maps/map-thb.html

But Mister Crude Oil is going to ask his "check bin" very soon...

[Joey Boy]

I'm not surprised bookings are down either, tourists dont like even the scent of political upheaval, even though, so far no tourist has even remotelybeen in danger.

You don't get out much do you? It was reported in the western press about tourists being injured/taken to hospital when the bomb went off outside the politicians house

[jdinasia]

Hotel Bookings in BKK down 10%?