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Phuket -- A pessimist's Paradise


KarenBravo

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@Mudcrab

Yes, who'd want that kind of choice when the glories of Isaan are calling. biggrin.png

Now you've gone and reminded me that I have the joy of 4 weeks in Khorat coming up shortly facepalm.gif That would be enough to even have NKM pining for Phuket!

Edited by Colonel_Mustard
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@Mudcrab

Yes, who'd want that kind of choice when the glories of Isaan are calling. biggrin.png

Now you've gone and reminded me that I have the joy of 4 weeks in Khorat coming up shortly facepalm.gif That would be enough to even have NKM pining for Phuket!

LOL

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@ Colonel_Mustard

Once again, you hear this argument a lot. "The tourism numbers are up, so everything on Phuket must be alright."

The tourists numbers MAY be up, but the tourist dollars are down, way down.

If this trend continues, I think there will be further negative impact on Phuket, due to a struggling local economy. An example may be, rising rents, from Thai landlords, to cover their vacant properties. That rent rise is passed onto the consumer, so food and beverage prices increase. Such increases effect ALL of us.

Can you point me to where you got the info on tourist dollars being down? I'm also not convinced by this struggling local economy either judging from the number of new cars on the road each month.

The info comes from my observations of bars, cafes, restaurants, shops etc. There are no customers inside. Except for Burger King. smile.pngsmile.png

The info comes from me speaking to farang business owners who tell me takings are down, and they are selling up, and if they can not sell, they will not renew their lease.

The info comes from seeing many shops closed. There are even "boarded up" vacant shops in Jungceylon, which traditionally would have had one of the highest pedestrian traffic flow through on the island, and is a tourist attraction with the boat and water fountains.

The info comes from me speaking with some Thai cleaning staff and receptionists about their occupancy rates. Of the ones I have spoken to, they are running on 10% to 20% occupancy rates. The highest was 20%. I doubt those occupacy rates cover running costs.

The info comes from observing Chinese and Russian tourists in Big C buying food and alcohol.

The info comes from viewing real estate websites and seeing thousands of properties for sale here.

On a personal level, and a smaller scale, the info comes from expat friends I know that have left Phuket, and tourist friends who do not come back here anymore. They have taken their baht with them. Expats that are unknown to me, such as Big Bill and Jimi0007, are also leaving, with their wives, and taking their baht with them.

These are just off the top of my head, I'm sure other members could come up with other indicators.

In relation to the new cars on the roads here, that's because of the tax rebate offered recently by the Thai Government. Many farang, through their girlfriend/wife, and local wealthy Thai's, either bought their first car, or upgraded because they were considerably cheaper due to the tax break.

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@ Mudcrab

I have been to Issan, several times, and even out into the small villages. I know there is a large lake in Udon Thani. I perfer the beach, to a lake, but each to their own.

Are you on phuket, or in issan?

Issan at the moment

How long since you have been to Phuket?

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@Mudcrab

Yes, who'd want that kind of choice when the glories of Isaan are calling. biggrin.png

Now you've gone and reminded me that I have the joy of 4 weeks in Khorat coming up shortly facepalm.gif That would be enough to even have NKM pining for Phuket!

LOL

:) :) :) :)

Colonel, I'm sure you will come back with fond memories of Khorat tuk-tuks. :) :)

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@ Colonel_Mustard

Once again, you hear this argument a lot. "The tourism numbers are up, so everything on Phuket must be alright."

The tourists numbers MAY be up, but the tourist dollars are down, way down.

If this trend continues, I think there will be further negative impact on Phuket, due to a struggling local economy. An example may be, rising rents, from Thai landlords, to cover their vacant properties. That rent rise is passed onto the consumer, so food and beverage prices increase. Such increases effect ALL of us.

Can you point me to where you got the info on tourist dollars being down? I'm also not convinced by this struggling local economy either judging from the number of new cars on the road each month.

The info comes from my observations of bars, cafes, restaurants, shops etc. There are no customers inside. Except for Burger King. smile.pngsmile.png

The info comes from me speaking to farang business owners who tell me takings are down, and they are selling up, and if they can not sell, they will not renew their lease.

The info comes from seeing many shops closed. There are even "boarded up" vacant shops in Jungceylon, which traditionally would have had one of the highest pedestrian traffic flow through on the island.

The info comes from me speaking with some Thai cleaning staff and receptionists about their occupancy rates. Of the ones I have spoken to, they are running on 10% to 20% occupancy rates. The highest was 20%. I doubt those occupacy rates cover running costs.

The info comes from observing Chinese and Russian tourists in Big C buying food and alcohol.

The info comes from viewing real estate websites and seeing thousands of properties for sale here.

On a personal level, and a smaller scale, the info comes from expat friends I know that have left Phuket, and tourist friends who do not come back here anymore. They have taken their baht with them. Expats that are unknown to me, such as Big Bill and Jimi0007, are also leaving, with their wives, and taking their baht with them.

These are just off the top of my head, I'm sure other members could come up with other indicators.

In relation to the new cars on the roads here, that's because of the tax rebate offered recently by the Thai Government. Many farang, through their girlfriend/wife, and local wealthy Thai's, either bought their first car, or upgraded.

So basically you don't have any data, just impressions.

Of course things probably aren't as rosy as they were 5 years ago as the world seems in a bit of an economic slump at present as I'm sure you have noticed. However, despite that, I get the feeling that Phuket (and Thailand in general) is doing quite ok for tourism at present.

Expats come and go as do small businesses here. Those I know in the hotel trade (a very limited number) tell me they have had a good year so far and the golf courses I frequent seem busier than at this time in previous years as does Central but that's just personal observation of course and means nothing. It would be interesting if they ever release data on how many tourist $ are being spent in Phuket in comparison to years gone by. I think you might be surprised. I certainly see no signs of a struggling local economy.

Anyway, we're going round in circles with this and I very much doubt we're going to agree on this or much else related to Phuket smile.png

If/when I start to feel like you seem to do about the place, I'm sure I'll start looking for somewhere else to call home. Just out of genuine interest what keeps you here?

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@Mudcrab

Yes, who'd want that kind of choice when the glories of Isaan are calling. biggrin.png

Now you've gone and reminded me that I have the joy of 4 weeks in Khorat coming up shortly facepalm.gif That would be enough to even have NKM pining for Phuket!

LOL

smile.pngsmile.pngsmile.pngsmile.png

Colonel, I'm sure you will come back with fond memories of Khorat tuk-tuks. smile.pngsmile.png

Sadly I have been there before and know only too well what awaits me wink.png

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@ Colonel_Mustard

Once again, you hear this argument a lot. "The tourism numbers are up, so everything on Phuket must be alright."

The tourists numbers MAY be up, but the tourist dollars are down, way down.

If this trend continues, I think there will be further negative impact on Phuket, due to a struggling local economy. An example may be, rising rents, from Thai landlords, to cover their vacant properties. That rent rise is passed onto the consumer, so food and beverage prices increase. Such increases effect ALL of us.

Can you point me to where you got the info on tourist dollars being down? I'm also not convinced by this struggling local economy either judging from the number of new cars on the road each month.

The info comes from my observations of bars, cafes, restaurants, shops etc. There are no customers inside. Except for Burger King. smile.pngsmile.png

The info comes from me speaking to farang business owners who tell me takings are down, and they are selling up, and if they can not sell, they will not renew their lease.

The info comes from seeing many shops closed. There are even "boarded up" vacant shops in Jungceylon, which traditionally would have had one of the highest pedestrian traffic flow through on the island.

The info comes from me speaking with some Thai cleaning staff and receptionists about their occupancy rates. Of the ones I have spoken to, they are running on 10% to 20% occupancy rates. The highest was 20%. I doubt those occupacy rates cover running costs.

The info comes from observing Chinese and Russian tourists in Big C buying food and alcohol.

The info comes from viewing real estate websites and seeing thousands of properties for sale here.

On a personal level, and a smaller scale, the info comes from expat friends I know that have left Phuket, and tourist friends who do not come back here anymore. They have taken their baht with them. Expats that are unknown to me, such as Big Bill and Jimi0007, are also leaving, with their wives, and taking their baht with them.

These are just off the top of my head, I'm sure other members could come up with other indicators.

In relation to the new cars on the roads here, that's because of the tax rebate offered recently by the Thai Government. Many farang, through their girlfriend/wife, and local wealthy Thai's, either bought their first car, or upgraded.

So basically you don't have any data, just impressions.

Of course things probably aren't as rosy as they were 5 years ago as the world seems in a bit of an economic slump at present as I'm sure you have noticed. However, despite that, I get the feeling that Phuket (and Thailand in general) is doing quite ok for tourism at present.

Expats come and go as do small businesses here. Those I know in the hotel trade (a very limited number) tell me they have had a good year so far and the golf courses I frequent seem busier than at this time in previous years as does Central but that's just personal observation of course and means nothing. It would be interesting if they ever release data on how many tourist $ are being spent in Phuket in comparison to years gone by. I think you might be surprised. I certainly see no signs of a struggling local economy.

Anyway, we're going round in circles with this and I very much doubt we're going to agree on this or much else related to Phuket smile.png

If/when I start to feel like you seem to do about the place, I'm sure I'll start looking for somewhere else to call home. Just out of genuine interest what keeps you here?

Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

I remain on Phuket because I still like it here. My many "work arounds" are going well for me.

I like the beaches, the climate, the variety of restaurants - especially the fresh seafood, the variety of expats you meet, it's afforability, it's well connected airport, I definately like the nightlife - especially the live music, as you - I like certain western facilities that are available, I like the festivals and events here, I like the Buddhist principles - although you do not see much genuine principles here, the variety of accommodation, and these are just off the top of my head. I'm sure there are many more positive things to living on Phuket I could name.

It's just a shame the island is being mismanaged by previous, and current administrations.

It has a lot of potential to be so much better and to be a true world class tourist destination, and it's just being raped and pillaged by a minority for their own financial gain and it's now turning traditional tourists away, and long term expats.

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@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

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@ Mudcrab

I know a couple of bar girls who have left Phuket for Pattaya. One of a few reasons they left were the lack of customers, and there was nothing wrong with the appearance of these girls, they were attractive.

If you ever go to Bangla Road, next time, have a look down a few of the Soi. There is no one in them and many of the bars are closed, and of the ones that are not, many of them are for sale.

As the girls slowly leave, so will what little of the western sex tourist market as well.

BTW, many bars in the new tiger are charging 1000 baht bar fine and over 100 baht for a beer, so the "cheap pussy and cheap booze" is not so cheap anymore, compared to other places in Thailand.

Nam.....1000baht is just under 2 hours of the minimum wage in Australia ( 16 bucks or so an hour), 100 baht is 3 dollars. For someone on holiday this is cheap. 1000 baht seems a little steep though I thought 300 was closer to the mark and 1000 for a good time. been a whilebiggrin.png

Yes, 1000 baht bar fine is expensive for Thailand. The freelancers are loving the high bar prices. :) :)

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@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

If you ask any number of biz owners here (i.e.), "How busy was it this past high season?" They will naturally answer according to how well (or not) their own business did. That does not give an "overall picture" as you say.

The food court area of Baanzan market was always dead, and never had more than maybe two stalls open serving food. But go there now and the place is booming with business. Tons of Chinese eating there, many buying seafood from the market downstairs and having it cooked for them upstairs. I've never seen it so busy there in the past - ever. Same with the food vendors outside in the evenings.

If you judge the overall picture of anything here based solely on what the bars of Bangla are doing, you're missing a good portion of that overall picture.

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Surely Patong is no different from big tourists resorts worldwide with regards to change of course we have corruption here that is not always for the best but tourists dont really see that they will continue to come in droves, of course they are different tourists but as long as they have a good time they will keep coming.

To me Patong has nearly everything a tourist wants its just a different Patong now but it's only us that see that.

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^

I hear what you say LOS. I have used a car only on a daily basis (gave up m/b for safety reasons) for the past 4 years and while I agree parking can be a challenge, it's not impossible given some local knowledge, and at worst a 5 minute walk (even in central Patong). As for the airport, just park at the far away side, even at the busiest times I have always found a place to park, and I consider where to park that is difficult to be blocked.

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Things that pessimists got right:-

1. No change of the one-way system in Patong.

2. No change in status of land stolen from Phuket's national parks.

3. Removal of bill-boards on public land fizzled out.

4. Bus route from Patong to Karon would never happen.

5. The Phuket Welcome Gate (a white elephant at 49 million that no one ever stops at).

6. Meter taxis not actually using meters.

7. Phuket light railway (several contractors would have made it using their own funds).

8. Patong will have water than can be drunk straight from the tap.

9. A drug free Phuket (remember the bell ringing to announce that we were now drug-free?).

Add your own list of incredible statements and broken promises,

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When you went to the Welcome Gate, how many other people were there?

There was only one business open there and they were dying.

Try getting a taxi to use it's meter from the airport.

There has only ever been one business there - an apology for a so called snack bar. And I am not surprised it is dying. As it happens there have always been the odd few visitors when we were there, but I have to admit the car park is usually empty, no more than a couple of cars.

While I don't use taxis from the airport very often, they have always used the meter. And I cited an example from last week where the meter was used from the airport.

There is much to moan about here in Phuket but let's not spread it on too thick ....

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@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

You may have to clarify for me.

My observations are first hand. My conversations with business owners are first hand.

When someone says to me, "There's nobody around. We're putting the place up for sale." I don't think these are "impressions" of struggling businesses, they are first hand accounts of businesses slipping into the red, thus, making them unsustainable.

Of course, not every businesses is struggling, but many are. Is this the "overall picture" or "the picture itself?"

What "picture" would you paint of Phuket to the owners of these businesses?

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<snip>

The point I am making is, a European tourist who used to come to Phuket, would go to a restaurant, order a drink, possibly an entree, and then a main meal. He would wash it down with a glass of wine, or more drinks. On average, the bill would be in the 100's of baht, possibly over 1000 baht, just for one person. If he had a Thai lady friend for dinner, the bill was higher.

This tourist has been replaced by 40 baht street soup eating Chinese and Russians. They buy their meals, and alcohol, from supermarkets, 7/11's and street vendors. Great for these businesses, but it's sending bars, cafes, restaurants, guest houses etc broke.

Could not agree with you more NKM. I have been seeing this trend for the past 2 or 3 years. The reasons - money is tight, the baht is strong, folks are economising.

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@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

You may have to clarify for me.

My observations are first hand. My conversations with business owners are first hand.

When someone says to me, "There's nobody around. We're putting the place up for sale." I don't think these are "impressions" of struggling businesses, they are first hand accounts of businesses slipping into the red, thus, making them unsustainable.

Of course, not every businesses is struggling, but many are. Is this the "overall picture" or "the picture itself?"

What "picture" would you paint of Phuket to the owners of these businesses?

The overall picture is exactly what we don't seem to have and that is any data on how much tourist $ are being spent these days in comparison to before.

You can find some struggling businesses, there are also businesses that are doing better now than before.

I don't personally think that the Russian and Asian visitors are as cheap as you believe (and again that's only my view from personal experience). I think they just spend their money on things other than those that Westerner's typically spent on). It would be nice to get some real independent data of what the overall picture is. We know tourism numbers are increasing but I don't recall seeing anything about how much they are spending. Hopefully at some time in the near future, such information may become available.

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@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

You may have to clarify for me.

My observations are first hand. My conversations with business owners are first hand.

When someone says to me, "There's nobody around. We're putting the place up for sale." I don't think these are "impressions" of struggling businesses, they are first hand accounts of businesses slipping into the red, thus, making them unsustainable.

Of course, not every businesses is struggling, but many are. Is this the "overall picture" or "the picture itself?"

What "picture" would you paint of Phuket to the owners of these businesses?

The overall picture is exactly what we don't seem to have and that is any data on how much tourist $ are being spent these days in comparison to before.

You can find some struggling businesses, there are also businesses that are doing better now than before.

I don't personally think that the Russian and Asian visitors are as cheap as you believe (and again that's only my view from personal experience). I think they just spend their money on things other than those that Westerner's typically spent on). It would be nice to get some real independent data of what the overall picture is. We know tourism numbers are increasing but I don't recall seeing anything about how much they are spending. Hopefully at some time in the near future, such information may become available.

You know, as well as I do, any figures released by the Government agencies here can not be relied upon.

Take a look around, speak to people, notice all the 'For Sale" signs etc etc. You will soon have the "picture" of what is happening here.

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@NKM

"Firstly, I would hardly say a business owners and staff telling me they are running at a loss is an "impression."

What I meant is that it is an impression of the overall picture, not the overall picture itself.

Interesting to read of what you feel to be the positive aspects of life here. Thank you.

You may have to clarify for me.

My observations are first hand. My conversations with business owners are first hand.

When someone says to me, "There's nobody around. We're putting the place up for sale." I don't think these are "impressions" of struggling businesses, they are first hand accounts of businesses slipping into the red, thus, making them unsustainable.

Of course, not every businesses is struggling, but many are. Is this the "overall picture" or "the picture itself?"

What "picture" would you paint of Phuket to the owners of these businesses?

The overall picture is exactly what we don't seem to have and that is any data on how much tourist $ are being spent these days in comparison to before.

You can find some struggling businesses, there are also businesses that are doing better now than before.

I don't personally think that the Russian and Asian visitors are as cheap as you believe (and again that's only my view from personal experience). I think they just spend their money on things other than those that Westerner's typically spent on). It would be nice to get some real independent data of what the overall picture is. We know tourism numbers are increasing but I don't recall seeing anything about how much they are spending. Hopefully at some time in the near future, such information may become available.

You know, as well as I do, any figures released by the Government agencies here can not be relied upon.

Take a look around, speak to people, notice all the 'For Sale" signs etc etc. You will soon have the "picture" of what is happening here.

I do speak to people and some seem to be doing very well while others complain of struggling. Of course I see for sale signs just as I have always done. Do I see more now? Yes, but at the rate they keep on building it's hardly a surprise.

I also see new shopping facilities opening, new buildings, more new cars on the road etc, hardly the image of the local recession.

I have no doubt that many businesses are being hurt by the lack of traditional Western tourists and I sincerely hope that things will pick up for them. I suspect though that the reason for the absence of so many Westerners is more to do with the economic situation in their countries, rather than that Phuket has priced them out.

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Will the rooms in all those boxy, cheap condominiums build in totally unfashionable locations ever sell?

There must be at least 20 different condominiums being marketed and more are being built.

Thai speculators buy them.

Use d-condo in kathu for example, majority of the units for 999k were bought by Thais who aim to flip them.

They actually dont pay for them upfront but make the small repayments of 4900 baht per month until they flip or if they ever do.

Seen them trying to get 1.2- 1.3m now and some owners have 6 units to choose from. Complete bubble built on credit.

Won't end well for the low end segment.

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<snip>

The point I am making is, a European tourist who used to come to Phuket, would go to a restaurant, order a drink, possibly an entree, and then a main meal. He would wash it down with a glass of wine, or more drinks. On average, the bill would be in the 100's of baht, possibly over 1000 baht, just for one person. If he had a Thai lady friend for dinner, the bill was higher.

This tourist has been replaced by 40 baht street soup eating Chinese and Russians. They buy their meals, and alcohol, from supermarkets, 7/11's and street vendors. Great for these businesses, but it's sending bars, cafes, restaurants, guest houses etc broke.

Could not agree with you more NKM. I have been seeing this trend for the past 2 or 3 years. The reasons - money is tight, the baht is strong, folks are economising.

Been a trend for a while.. At first the 'family tourists' visiting patong.. Wandering along gawking at the ladyboys, buying a sarong, maybe a beer or two but then off with the kids to the hotel by 10.. Compared to the sailor on shore leave demographic, offshore oil and security types who would whoop it up through a night of bell rings and bar fines.. Sure many will say they dont want 'that sort' anyway.. But that sort powered the Patong economy.. the slow creep means prices had to rise to keep paying key money and leases.. The wild guys moved on and this became more a 'look dont touch' kind of town and now you have empty bar sois (Eric is even closing for the summer I hear !!) and the knock on effect of the girls leaving for patts or asking crazy drink and fees from a different breed of traveler.

Now after the family market we lean even further with the expansion of the indian, russian and chinese tourists.. Great if you have something they want and will pay for ?? But probably not so great for the majority of businesses.. So to keep turnover similar you need more of them, more strain to the roads, to the services, to the ecology.. Its more work for less reward, and eating up the island in a way it cant come back from.

Sure theres a cashed up Surin type beach club set.. But is there enough to drive the whole island ?? And to keep pace with the frantic rate at which new rooms, boxy condos and other concrete boxes are being added ??

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I think the change for Phuket is just natural way how the tourists protect them selves from the rip offs.

When the transportation prices hike up, people use more package tours where the transportation is included. This saves the tourists the hassle of trying to negotiate prices with the local transportation mafias. Cheap and easy.

Same goes with the restaurants. If the prices are 10 or more times higher in a simple touristic restaurant, which offers table clothes, then the tourists might think why not to try to eat where the locals are eating.

The magic of Phuket has is not the same as it was before. I don't know the global figures, but just a few days ago, the statistics of Finnish charter tours were released.

Thailand was 33% down in the year to year comparition (January - May). Meanwhile Turkey gained 40 % more visitors. This is of course data of only one small nation, but it might give an indication of the trend.



Spain 140 287 (+ 10 %)

Turkey 45 457 (+ 40 %)

Thailand 30 524 (- 33 %)

- Phuket 25 000 (- 32%)

Greece 31 877 (- 14 %)

Egypt 17 968 (- 14 %)

Portugal 12 006 (- 15 %)

People vote with their wallets. The yearly vacation for families costs large part of the yearly disposable income so it's understandable that people wish to use it wisely.

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I think the change for Phuket is just natural way how the tourists protect them selves from the rip offs.

When the transportation prices hike up, people use more package tours where the transportation is included. This saves the tourists the hassle of trying to negotiate prices with the local transportation mafias. Cheap and easy.

Same goes with the restaurants. If the prices are 10 or more times higher in a simple touristic restaurant, which offers table clothes, then the tourists might think why not to try to eat where the locals are eating.

The magic of Phuket has is not the same as it was before. I don't know the global figures, but just a few days ago, the statistics of Finnish charter tours were released.

Thailand was 33% down in the year to year comparition (January - May). Meanwhile Turkey gained 40 % more visitors. This is of course data of only one small nation, but it might give an indication of the trend.

Spain 140 287 (+ 10 %)

Turkey 45 457 (+ 40 %)

Thailand 30 524 (- 33 %)

- Phuket 25 000 (- 32%)

Greece 31 877 (- 14 %)

Egypt 17 968 (- 14 %)

Portugal 12 006 (- 15 %)

People vote with their wallets. The yearly vacation for families costs large part of the yearly disposable income so it's understandable that people wish to use it wisely.

The data from Finland seems to indicate that Thailand as a whole is down and if anything Phuket is faring marginally better (Phuket down 32% compared to a drop of 33% in Thailand as a whole).

Not really surprising again given the fact that the European economies are struggling and the other places in this survey mentioned are all considerably nearer and therefore presumably more affordable.

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