I Will Not Resign: Thaksin

[otherstuff1957]

The apparent agreement of the opposing forces to accept Thaksin's pledge to resign in cooperation for the disbanding of protestors is a major one.

Let's hope for once he keeps his word.... I certainly hope so.

Want to put some money on that?

I bet he'll still be here when the southern run-off elections are held in 30 days or so.

[hammered]

I dont honestly know as I'm not invloved, but at this stage I would be surprised if there were a compromise that didnt involve him at least temporarily standing aside. Interestingly I was talking to a TRT organizer today and she said they were surprised at how they had underperformed in the election. She thought they were going to get 20 million plus votes and 2/3. I didnt ask the obvious question but I got the impression that Thaksins postion is now weaker than before the election bizarrely enough, so I guess his moving aside is an option for TRT.

I am surprised that they are be surprised by the results.

In last year's elections the TRT had the only somewhat accurate prognosis of the outcome, mainly due to their excellent advanced systhems of internal information gathering. Last year's landslide victory was not to a small extend influenced by the Tsunami, and how Thaksin has managed to profit from it.

This year's result is more or less the same percentage as his first victory 5 years ago, give or take some minor factors and trends.

I got the impression that they had really got carried away with the PMs popularity, and that big canvassers in certain areas promised more than they could deliver or just didnt try that hard. t also seems the Democrats ploy of boycotting worked better than TRT thought it would. The Dems seem to have seen that a lot of those disillusioned with politics in general would come out and vote no or write abuse on a paper whereas they would be less likely to support an opposition candidate in snap election where the opposition had litttle time to organize against an incumbent with a huge majority, huge war chest and almost total control of state organizations and resources. This is probably the first time the Democrats have managed to get one over on the TRT. Maybe also TRT actually believd it would only be the smll middle and upper classes plus a few southerners who voted no. The numbers went beyond this and reached into what had been the strong TRT heartlands of the center and East of Thailand. I'm sure even the reasonably high number of nos in Chiang Mai constituencies would not have pleased Mr Thaksin. Who really knows the dynamic but the reality is TRT won (subject to confirmation) over half the votes but didnt get what they expected. As an aside if Mr T had resigned just before the election and TRT had run opposed they may have done even better!

Edited April 4, 2006 by hammered

[Smithson]

By deciding on a change in the latter(PM) the former will become a lot easier.

True.

But what if Thaksin refuses in the end to step down?

From a purely pragmatic viewpoint - he is in a position of strength. Because of the numbers backing him, and because technically he has not been convicted of any wrong doings.

Is it worth throwing the country into further conflict, or are there some compromises that could include him?

He could be included as a minister or MP. He hasn't been convicted but he also hasn't offered a reasonable explanation for the details of the Shin sale. If you think he's done nothing wrong then you would have to believe he had nothing to do with the sale "didn't even discuss it at the dinner table". Alot of good has come from the conflict, Thais are now asking for their PM to be accountable.

[sriracha john]

The apparent agreement of the opposing forces to accept Thaksin's pledge to resign in cooperation for the disbanding of protestors is a major one.

Let's hope for once he keeps his word.... I certainly hope so.

Want to put some money on that?

I bet he'll still be here when the southern run-off elections are held in 30 days or so.

You want me to bet on the side of his sense of honesty?

Uhmm.... no, I'll give the wagering a pass...

However, I do hope this turn of events does occur. Have to have hope.

[cclub75]

Allo ?

Someone ?

Are you sure that elections were organized in Thailand last sunday ?

At 4h30 PM, 48 hours after closing the polling stations... there is a big silence.... Nothing in the medias.

Not even a quick word from the EC to says "sorry mak mak we are counting very slowly but it's coming".

Not even the turn out figure.

Toxic visits the King at 5 PM... and the Stock exchange shoot up at 2 PM in positive territory (+1%) after a morning in the red.

Hum... Maybe a future good news...

[ColPyat]

I got the impression that they had really got carried away with the PMs popularity, and that big canvassers in certain areas promised more than they could deliver or just didnt try that hard.

Well, yeah, the Mao effect is rather common with pyramidical organisation with a slight megalomaniac on top.

But i doubt that TRT would have done better without Thaksin. Thaksin is holding TRT together through powergames all the different fractions and ex-poilitical parties. Take him away - and TRT will disintegrate.

[h90]

maybe instead of: "sorry mak mak we are counting cha cha but it's coming", it is "we messed up something big and now we keep quiet maybe the other forget to ask us for the results"

Or there are some results which can not be (to good because faked to much, or not faked and too bad) and "now we better wait what orders we get from our fearless leader (maybe he can tell us where we shall search for the missing million votes to get 16 mill).

I don't know

Allo ?

Someone ?

Are you sure that elections were organized in Thailand last sunday ?

At 4h30 PM, 48 hours after closing the polling stations... there is a big silence.... Nothing in the medias.

Not even a quick word from the EC to says "sorry mak mak we are counting very slowly but it's coming".

Not even the turn out figure.

Toxic visits the King at 5 PM... and the Stock exchange shoot up at 2 PM in positive territory (+1%) after a morning in the red.

Hum... Maybe a future good news...

[Hermano Lobo]

I have an impression that Thaksin is protected whilst in office ??

If he steps down is he open to impeachment ?

[ColPyat]

If you think he's done nothing wrong then you would have to believe he had nothing to do with the sale "didn't even discuss it at the dinner table".

What i think regarding his guilt or innocence is completely besides the point. What do i understand about complex stock market regulations? F_uck all. Threfore i do reserve my judgement.

The point is that appearantly the case that they trid to make was not strong enough to hold up anywhere.

[Smithson]

If you think he's done nothing wrong then you would have to believe he had nothing to do with the sale "didn't even discuss it at the dinner table".

What i think regarding his guilt or innocence is completely besides the point. What do i understand about complex stock market regulations? F_uck all. Threfore i do reserve my judgement.

The point is that appearantly the case that they trid to make was not strong enough to hold up anywhere.

Of course what we think and say here is of no consequence, it's what the Thais think and in this case a great deal of them refused to accept his (lack of) explanation and demanded greater accountability, which is definetely a step forward for Thai politics.

[sriracha john]

Allo ?

Someone ?

Are you sure that elections were organized in Thailand last sunday ?

At 4h30 PM, 48 hours after closing the polling stations... there is a big silence.... Nothing in the medias.

Not even a quick word from the EC to says "sorry mak mak we are counting very slowly but it's coming".

Not even the turn out figure.

Toxic visits the King at 5 PM... and the Stock exchange shoot up at 2 PM in positive territory (+1%) after a morning in the red.

Hum... Maybe a future good news...

Yes, especially in light of the agreement on Thaksin's pledge concurrently.

The unreporting of the current status with vote counting is a concern, but in light of these other developments seems secondary in importance.

It is painstakingly slow and I'm surprised that Thaksin and others have already made these declarations of victory given the number of votes yet to be counted and reported on.

[tettyan]

Looking at the election results, it looks like the biggest losers were the old political barons who were in opposition - namely, Banharn in Suphan Buri, Sanoh in Sa Kaew, and Sanan in Phichit. Even though these guys threw their support behind the "no vote" campaign, TRT support in their respective backyards far outstripped abstentions. It`s no surpise that there are already rumours that Banharn is seeking talks with TRT.

Those political barons being dumped reach far into the TRT Party as well with the embarrassing loss of control over the votes by the likes of the murderous Khunplome gang of Chonburi and the Chaisaeng family of Chachoengsao, who had previously controlled their respective political areas for years... and who were all stunned by how the voting went against them.

The TRT Party loss of central and eastern provinces to the "No Vote" is one of the most stunning aspects of the election.

Is this the same Barnharn who was in the ICU last week?... and has turned down any role in talks on several occasions already?

It seems no/spoilt vote won not only in Chonburi but also in Rayong and in Chantaburi the no/spoilt vote was winning early on although I havent seen numbers from there for a while. The whole issue of the no vote and spoilt vote seems to be that it was a lot of individual decisions. Outside of the South there were not canvassers or influential ones campaigning for it where it was succesful. Indeed where old style politicians tried they seem to have had a negative effect! This could be an interesting development in Thai politics.

Agreed. For one thing, you don't have to be PAID to cast an abstention vote! I was really surprised too. Can anyone who lives out in these regions (particularly the Eastern Seaboard) explain the mood among voters that could of led to this outcome?

It's funny, the one thing consistent about this election is the rejection of the old provincial barons. Where the barons were against TRT, the voters went for TRT. Where the bosses were for TRT, the electorate abstained!

If I were the Democrats, I'd be studying these outcomes very carefully in preperation for the next election.

Edited April 4, 2006 by tettyan

[ColPyat]

Of course what we think and say here is of no consequence, it's what the Thais think and in this case a great deal of them refused to accept his (lack of) explanation and demanded greater accountability, which is definetely a step forward for Thai politics.

I would dare say that the vast majority of demonstrators have very little clue about stock market regulations either. It's easy to scream cheating, but rather difficult to prove it. Just because a large crowd screams the same thing does not mean that those accusations hold up in court.

[ColPyat]

It's funny, the one thing consistent about this election is the rejection of the old provincial barons. Where the barons were against TRT, the voters went for TRT. Where the bosses were for TRT, the electorate abstained!

If I were the Democrats, I'd be studying these outcomes very carefully in preperation for the next election.

Very true.

I have my doubts though that the Democrats are going to do this.

[Smithson]

Of course what we think and say here is of no consequence, it's what the Thais think and in this case a great deal of them refused to accept his (lack of) explanation and demanded greater accountability, which is definetely a step forward for Thai politics.

I would dare say that the vast majority of demonstrators have very little clue about stock market regulations either. It's easy to scream cheating, but rather difficult to prove it. Just because a large crowd screams the same thing does not mean that those accusations hold up in court.

I don't think they know a great deal about stock market regs either, but I don't think that is what they were protesting about. I think they believed he was lying when he said he "didn't discuss the sale with his kids".

It looks like alot of the old political barons are losing power, considering Thaksin held the election because of the demos, it's fair to say they've made a very positive contribution to democracy.

[tettyan]

It's funny, the one thing consistent about this election is the rejection of the old provincial barons. Where the barons were against TRT, the voters went for TRT. Where the bosses were for TRT, the electorate abstained!

If I were the Democrats, I'd be studying these outcomes very carefully in preperation for the next election.

Very true.

I have my doubts though that the Democrats are going to do this.

So do I. When will they ever learn???

[bulmercke]

Thaksin's conditions acceptable: Abhisit - The Nation -

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Tuesday that the Democrat accepted the conditions of caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who offered to resign if the protests against him stop and if opposition parities contest post-reform election.

Abhisit said he watched Thaksin on TV Monday night and considered that conditions set by Thaksin were acceptable.

Thaksin said during the live broadcast that he would resign immediately if the People's Alliance for Democracy halted its protests and if the former opposition parties promised to contest an election after the political reform.

"The Democrat has no problems with the conditions and we have talked to the two other parties [Chat Thai and Mahachon parties], and they also have no problems," Abhisit said.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thaksin says one thing and does another. And I think Abhisit knows in his heart of hearts that Thaksin's proposal - highlighted above - is nothing but a sop that he won't follow through on - in the proper spirit it has obviously been understood by others.

And when would this "post reform" election take place?

In four years time?

Edited April 4, 2006 by bulmercke

[hammered]

Looking at the election results, it looks like the biggest losers were the old political barons who were in opposition - namely, Banharn in Suphan Buri, Sanoh in Sa Kaew, and Sanan in Phichit. Even though these guys threw their support behind the "no vote" campaign, TRT support in their respective backyards far outstripped abstentions. It`s no surpise that there are already rumours that Banharn is seeking talks with TRT.

Those political barons being dumped reach far into the TRT Party as well with the embarrassing loss of control over the votes by the likes of the murderous Khunplome gang of Chonburi and the Chaisaeng family of Chachoengsao, who had previously controlled their respective political areas for years... and who were all stunned by how the voting went against them.

The TRT Party loss of central and eastern provinces to the "No Vote" is one of the most stunning aspects of the election.

Is this the same Barnharn who was in the ICU last week?... and has turned down any role in talks on several occasions already?

It seems no/spoilt vote won not only in Chonburi but also in Rayong and in Chantaburi the no/spoilt vote was winning early on although I havent seen numbers from there for a while. The whole issue of the no vote and spoilt vote seems to be that it was a lot of individual decisions. Outside of the South there were not canvassers or influential ones campaigning for it where it was succesful. Indeed where old style politicians tried they seem to have had a negative effect! This could be an interesting development in Thai politics.

Agreed. For one thing, you don't have to be PAID to cast an abstention vote! I was really surprised too. Can anyone who lives out in these regions (particularly the Eastern Seaboard) explain the mood among voters that could of led to this outcome?

It's funny, the one thing consistent about this election is the rejection of the old provincial barons. Where the barons were against TRT, the voters went for TRT. Where the bosses were for TRT, the electorate abstained!

If I were the Democrats, I'd be studying these outcomes very carefully in preperation for the next election.

In Chonburi the market talk is anti-Thaksin and to a lesser degree anti-TRT in general. Only a year ago it was not a very good idea to criticize Thaksin or TRT. Now it is common place and open. Why? Well the level of education is quite high in Chonburi. Also the fear factor has gone as the local influential one has other things on his mind. It is also possible that Thaksins failure to provide total immunity from the legal system has resulted in a less than stellar effort to promote TRT. When Thaksin visited Chonburi only 3000 bothered to turn up and listen. The story goes all had to be paid. Maybe true . Maybe not. We should also not underestimate the water problems in Chonburi that are directly related to Thaksinomics by locals.

A similar story in Rayong.

[otherstuff1957]

Here's a cut and post from the BKK Post's breaking news:

'He(Thaksin) said he might step down if the opposition stopped its protests and accepted another leader from his party.

"Tell me, if or when I step aside, are all of you going to stop and return to what you normally do? No more protests. I have retreated. My back is against the wall."

Coordinator Suriyasai Katasila of the PAD told Radio Thailand the group will immediately stop its demonstration once the premier announces his resignation.'

I added the underlines.

Notice that he said might and they both said that the other side would have to act first. Barring royal intervention, this is going to be a long stand-off.

[jdinasia]

We accept Thaksin's conditions: PAD, Democrat

Leading anti-Thaksin campaigners have announced on Tuesday that they will cease their rallies if caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra announced in public that he will not take premiership in the new government.

PAD and opposition parties to accept PM's conditions

The People's Alliance for Democracy and opposition parties have promised to accept the conditions of embattled caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who offered to resign if their antiThaksin protests cease and if opposition parties contest a postreform election.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Tuesday that the Democrats accepted the conditions offered by Thaksin that he would resign if the opposition parties agreed to participate in the next election following political reform.

Abhisit said he watched Thaksin on TV Monday night and considered that the conditions set by Thaksin were acceptable.

Opposition parties - Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon - boycotted the April 2 election as they viewed that Thaksin's call for House dissolution leading to the election was not legitimate.

Thaksin promised in a television programme on Monday that he was ready to step down immediately if PAD and the opposition parties agreed to his conditions. He also proposed setting up a reconciliation committee whose assignment would be to address the deadlocked political situation.

"The Democrat Party has no problems with the conditions and we have talked to the two other parties [Chat Thai and Mahachon], and they also have no problems," Abhisit said.

Meanwhile, leading PAD members also announced on Tuesday that they will cease their rallies if Thaksin announced in public that he will not take the premiership in the new government.

"We are more than ready to stop our rallies if Thaksin does what he said on Monday," PAD's spokesman Suriyasai Katasila said in a press briefing.

The briefing included other PAD leaders Chamlong Srimuang and Pipop Thongchai.

Suriyasai also said that the core of the reconciliation committee should be neutral figures and it should comprise representatives of political parties and other public sectors.

The Nation

there was a news conference earlier with abahist et al and Chamlong in the background ... and Thaksin is at the palace in Hua Hin?

[jdinasia]

Thaksin to be granted audience with HM the King

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will be granted an audience with HM the King this afternoon, a government source said on Tuesday.

Thaksin will travel to Klaikangwon Palace at Hua Hin, Prachuab Khiri Khan province.

"Thaksin is scheduled to be granted an audience with HM at 2pm," the source said. The schedule was rearranged to be 5pm.

Meanwhile the premier's Secretary General Prommin Lertsuridej said that the premier's audience was a routine visit every six weeks.

"The premier will ask recommendations and suggestions from HM the King," he said.

The Nation

[cclub75]

Just went home, I browsed the TV stations at 6 PM... Nothing. Not a single image on the "counting" operations.

Where are the journalists ?

Sunday night late, we had a lot of images of counting. Monday too. But what about now ? Counting is over ? If not, why we don't have new footages ? If yes, what about the results ?

And monday night, on TVn Toxic said he won. He was pathetic with his pile of paper listings (the results ?).

It's outrageous.

[penzman]

I'm also wondering about the official count, what's going on? It's been more than 48 hours now sonce the pools have closed...

The EC hasn't been very cooperative in explaining why the paper ballot boxes, rubber stamps and many other irregularities so I'm now expecting them to be following the same path and mess around with the official results.

[h90]

maybe TRT got in some areas 110 % of the total votes and now they think on how they can explain that....

Here in my office many thais (southis) are not interested as they think the vote is redicolus (how to write that correct?), anyway faked and useless

I'm also wondering about the official count, what's going on? It's been more than 48 hours now sonce the pools have closed...

The EC hasn't been very cooperative in explaining why the paper ballot boxes, rubber stamps and many other irregularities so I'm now expecting them to be following the same path and mess around with the official results.

[konangrit]

From the Nation:

"Urgent: Thaksin to go on TV pool at 8 pm

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will make an important announcement on TV pool at 8 pm."

Is he stepping down? Maybe.

[LaoPo]

From the Nation:

"Urgent: Thaksin to go on TV pool at 8 pm

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will make an important announcement on TV pool at 8 pm."

Is he stepping down? Maybe.

That would be after his meeting with HM The King in Hua Hin, right?.......hmmm I'm very curious indeed, but I'm not alone here being so...

LaoPo

[PanzerJohn]

From the Nation:

"Urgent: Thaksin to go on TV pool at 8 pm

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will make an important announcement on TV pool at 8 pm."

Is he stepping down? Maybe.

BBC lunchtime news here in GB has announced that Taksin has said he will resign if the opposition stop their protests.

[lung]

10 minutes to go...

[jdinasia]

Brit .... think ... drink!

[lopburi3]

TV7 is reporting Taksin to speak at 8:30 PM during current news broadcast.