Is China crashing?

[lovetotravel]

From the above article, quite scary:

As some borrowers began defaulting early this year, worried lenders in the informal sector raised interest rates for small and medium-size businesses, previously 25 to 40 percent a year, to as much as 125 percent a year. The increase set off a much broader wave of defaults in recent weeks, as owners found themselves unable to repay billions of dollars in bad debts, many of them handwritten and hard to enforce in court.

[NeverSure]

This credit bubble in China is a chronic problem rather than an acute one. It’s going to be there for a period of years.

There is a cost and it’s going to manifest itself through, in the best scenario, substantially lower growth. In the worst case, it leads to more crisis-driven scenarios. In which case, China has so many weaknesses and so many fracture points that goodness knows how that could end up if you really start to see a systemic financial crisis. It’s simply too difficult to try to map out. You’re looking at capital flight, you’re looking at all sorts of worries about how that plays out. Again, it’s anybody’s guess.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/238727-chinas-chronic-debt-problem-explained/

Good article. Out take:

"Another point: China is the miracle economy, isn’t it? The answer is no, it’s not. So much of the recent growth has been built on debt. There is no secret formula: they borrowed excessively to get short term GDP figures."

yes good article but you have to concede there is no difference in this between China and USA? In fact one slight advantage China has is that it is not considered an " entitlement society " which America is very much turning into? At least in China, they have no expectations of " someone else " supporting you and they will work until they die if they have to.

.

Why does it always have to be about the US? China is communist and responsible to support its people.

The US has a capitalist economic engine and just because the government is in debt doesn't mean that the private sector isn't awash in cash.

You simply can't compare them, and you are also off topic.

[midas]

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/238727-chinas-chronic-debt-problem-explained/

Good article. Out take:

"Another point: China is the miracle economy, isn’t it? The answer is no, it’s not. So much of the recent growth has been built on debt. There is no secret formula: they borrowed excessively to get short term GDP figures."

yes good article but you have to concede there is no difference in this between China and USA? In fact one slight advantage China has is that it is not considered an " entitlement society " which America is very much turning into? At least in China, they have no expectations of " someone else " supporting you and they will work until they die if they have to.

.

Why does it always have to be about the US? China is communist and responsible to support its people.

The US has a capitalist economic engine and just because the government is in debt doesn't mean that the private sector isn't awash in cash.

You simply can't compare them, and you are also off topic.

“ Why does it always have to be about the US? “

It's not but it's inconsistent of you to say in one post about China “ So much of the recent growth has been built on debt. There is no secret formula: they borrowed excessively to get short term GDP figures." when the same conditions apply in America at the same time?

Why China Does Capitalism Better than the U.S.

" So whether it's health reform or the stimulus package, the power of special interests in the U.S. system invariably produces either gridlock or mishmash legislation crafted to please the narrow interests of a variety of competing interests rather than the aggregated interests of the economy and society as a whole. "

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2043235,00.html#ixzz2cCE9y3cp

Edited August 17, 2013 by midas

[yoshiwara]

Poor Fukuyama coming out with one second rate sociological misfire after another. He didn't understand then and he doesn't now either.

Edited August 18, 2013 by yoshiwara

[NeverSure]

yes good article but you have to concede there is no difference in this between China and USA? In fact one slight advantage China has is that it is not considered an " entitlement society " which America is very much turning into? At least in China, they have no expectations of " someone else " supporting you and they will work until they die if they have to.

.

Why does it always have to be about the US? China is communist and responsible to support its people.

The US has a capitalist economic engine and just because the government is in debt doesn't mean that the private sector isn't awash in cash.

You simply can't compare them, and you are also off topic.

“ Why does it always have to be about the US? “

It's not but it's inconsistent of you to say in one post about China “ So much of the recent growth has been built on debt. There is no secret formula: they borrowed excessively to get short term GDP figures." when the same conditions apply in America at the same time?

Why China Does Capitalism Better than the U.S.

" So whether it's health reform or the stimulus package, the power of special interests in the U.S. system invariably produces either gridlock or mishmash legislation crafted to please the narrow interests of a variety of competing interests rather than the aggregated interests of the economy and society as a whole. "

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2043235,00.html#ixzz2cCE9y3cp

Your linked article is 2 1/2 years old, and from Time Magazine which loves communist and socialist countries, and from the days when China could do no wrong.

Now watch them fight to stay alive.

And in your post before, you said that China isn't an entitlement society. It's communist, for cryin' out loud.

[poanoi]

" So whether it's health reform or the stimulus package, the power of special interests in the U.S. system invariably produces either gridlock or mishmash legislation crafted to please the narrow interests of a variety of competing interests rather than the aggregated interests of the economy and society as a whole. "

A good summarization of the catch with democracies in general, US would do better with a less influential congress and lobbying.

[midas]

yes good article but you have to concede there is no difference in this between China and USA? In fact one slight advantage China has is that it is not considered an " entitlement society " which America is very much turning into? At least in China, they have no expectations of " someone else " supporting you and they will work until they die if they have to.

.

Why does it always have to be about the US? China is communist and responsible to support its people.

The US has a capitalist economic engine and just because the government is in debt doesn't mean that the private sector isn't awash in cash.

You simply can't compare them, and you are also off topic.

“ Why does it always have to be about the US? “

It's not but it's inconsistent of you to say in one post about China “ So much of the recent growth has been built on debt. There is no secret formula: they borrowed excessively to get short term GDP figures." when the same conditions apply in America at the same time?

Why China Does Capitalism Better than the U.S.

" So whether it's health reform or the stimulus package, the power of special interests in the U.S. system invariably produces either gridlock or mishmash legislation crafted to please the narrow interests of a variety of competing interests rather than the aggregated interests of the economy and society as a whole. "

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2043235,00.html#ixzz2cCE9y3cp

Your linked article is 2 1/2 years old, and from Time Magazine which loves communist and socialist countries, and from the days when China could do no wrong.

Now watch them fight to stay alive.

And in your post before, you said that China isn't an entitlement society. It's communist, for cryin' out loud.

I would love to see the reaction of a Chinese citizen telling the authorities he has no interest whatsoever in working and just wants to be a beach bum and just give him money every month but only check back every year

Edited August 18, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

I would love to see the reaction of a Chinese citizen telling the authorities he has no interest whatsoever in working and just wants to be a beach bum and just give him money every month but only check back every year:giggle:

you mean the Chinese authorities will not be "crying out loud" but "laugh out loud"?

[LawrenceChee]

I would love to see the reaction of a Chinese citizen telling the authorities he has no interest whatsoever in working and just wants to be a beach bum and just give him money every month but only check back every year:giggle:

you mean the Chinese authorities will not be "crying out loud" but "laugh out loud"?

Father and mother would take out the rattan cane and give him / her a good whacking long before any Chinese declares they want to be a handout bum

[NeverSure]

This is not about the US. It is about a massive debt and real estate bubble in China. It is about falling manufacturing in China. It is about 40% of China's GDP being real estate construction. It is about interest rates on that real estate bubble rising to around 100%. It is about China being communist and owning much of the means of production. It is about burgeoning Chinese debt both public and private.

China is crashing. If someone wants to make that about the US, we could make it about the Eurozone or the UK and their massive borrowing and spending. We could make it about Greece and Italy and France and Portugal and so on. But that's all off topic.

China is in big trouble and it doesn't have its own inventions or technology to pull out of it. It copies poorly and/or builds to spec for companies in the West and that demand is falling.

[midas]

This is not about the US. It is about a massive debt and real estate bubble in China. It is about falling manufacturing in China. It is about 40% of China's GDP being real estate construction. It is about interest rates on that real estate bubble rising to around 100%. It is about China being communist and owning much of the means of production. It is about burgeoning Chinese debt both public and private.

China is crashing. If someone wants to make that about the US, we could make it about the Eurozone or the UK and their massive borrowing and spending. We could make it about Greece and Italy and France and Portugal and so on. But that's all off topic.

China is in big trouble and it doesn't have its own inventions or technology to pull out of it. It copies poorly and/or builds to spec for companies in the West and that demand is falling.

You are correct regarding the debt which I agree with you about.

As for total collapse, if you are correct, I would still put my money on the young Chinese people being able to mentally and physically adapt to any consequential hardship and to be able to build themselves backup with resilience that todays young Americans and Europeans couldn't even come close to.

[Issangeorge]

"You are correct regarding the debt which I agree with you about. As for total collapse,  if you are correct, I would still put my money on the young Chinese people being able to mentally and physically adapt to any consequential hardship and to be able to build themselves backup with resilience that todays young Americans and Europeans couldn't even come close to."

I have been living in Thailand now, so can't really comment on the American youth, but if they are like my nephews and nieces, I think they might surprise you.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 6 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[poanoi]

Here's a list of the top creditor nations

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/leslie-cuadra/2011/08/31/list-of-worlds-largest-creditor-and-debtor-nations

Edited August 18, 2013 by poanoi

[LawrenceChee]

I disagree with these numbers ... China has in its year of expansionary growth and built a lot infrastructures with public funds and debt

However financially it is sound and unlike the west, they have a communist government who is bent on reducing structural changes now without having the need to debate or have it approved by any conflicting house / politics

This is the source of criticism from the west but also their greatest strengths as they answer to no electives

There seem to be a good bunch of naysayers who want to see china fail

What the numbers in most publications don't show is inertly the older Chinese don't believe in banks or have any credit cards or debts ...if one was to count every penny stored under the bed, in the house or in a hole dug in a garden ..most Chinese have saved enough in for a long rainy day.

Most Chinese boys like me are taught by their parents since young ...when you have a dollar, spend 40 cents ...save 50 cents and 10 cents into an emergency fund...same thing I am teaching my nephews and boy. I just cannot see china crashing

Get a slowdown in growth yes ...but the government has indicated in years the 8% is no longer a needed or realistic target

[trogers]

I disagree with these numbers ... China has in its year of expansionary growth and built a lot infrastructures with public funds and debt

However financially it is sound and unlike the west, they have a communist government who is bent on reducing structural changes now without having the need to debate or have it approved by any conflicting house / politics

This is the source of criticism from the west but also their greatest strengths as they answer to no electives

There seem to be a good bunch of naysayers who want to see china fail

What the numbers in most publications don't show is inertly the older Chinese don't believe in banks or have any credit cards or debts ...if one was to count every penny stored under the bed, in the house or in a hole dug in a garden ..most Chinese have saved enough in for a long rainy day.

Most Chinese boys like me are taught by their parents since young ...when you have a dollar, spend 40 cents ...save 50 cents and 10 cents into an emergency fund...same thing I am teaching my nephews and boy. I just cannot see china crashing

Get a slowdown in growth yes ...but the government has indicated in years the 8% is no longer a needed or realistic target

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

[Naam]

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

the typical Japanese saver, who lives in Osaka, has not lost anything because he saved JP¥, thinks JP¥ and pays for his/her expenses with JP¥. his/her only concern is the Yen's purchase power in Osaka.

the same applies to a Brit, who lives in Manchester, saves GBP, thinks GBP and pays for his/her expenses with GBP. his/her concern is the Pound's purchase power in Manchester.

the Brit in Manchester does not care how much the Pound lost vs Thai Baht or any other currency and neither does the Japanese in Osaka care how much the Yen lost vs. Dollar or EURo.

Edited August 18, 2013 by Naam

[trogers]

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

the typical Japanese saver, who lives in Osaka, has not lost anything because he saved JP¥, thinks JP¥ and pays for his/her expenses with JP¥. his/her only concern is the Yen's purchase power in Osaka.

the same applies to a Brit, who lives in Manchester, saves GBP, thinks GBP and pays for his/her expenses with GBP. his/her concern is the Pound's purchase power in Manchester.

the Brit in Manchester does not care how much the Pound lost vs Thai Baht or any other currency and neither does the Japanese in Osaka care how much the Yen lost vs. Dollar or EURo.

A nation like Japan, lacking in major natural resources like oil, metals, rubber, etc., have to import and pay in foreign currencies. The Japanese saver will face higher inflation eating up his savings that earn very low interest rates.

[lovetotravel]

This is not about the US. It is about a massive debt and real estate bubble in China. It is about falling manufacturing in China. It is about 40% of China's GDP being real estate construction. It is about interest rates on that real estate bubble rising to around 100%. It is about China being communist and owning much of the means of production. It is about burgeoning Chinese debt both public and private.

China is crashing. If someone wants to make that about the US, we could make it about the Eurozone or the UK and their massive borrowing and spending. We could make it about Greece and Italy and France and Portugal and so on. But that's all off topic.

China is in big trouble and it doesn't have its own inventions or technology to pull out of it. It copies poorly and/or builds to spec for companies in the West and that demand is falling.

You are correct regarding the debt which I agree with you about.

As for total collapse, if you are correct, I would still put my money on the young Chinese people being able to mentally and physically adapt to any consequential hardship and to be able to build themselves backup with resilience that todays young Americans and Europeans couldn't even come close to.

I have many friends who work in China. Their description of Chinese workers is not so glowing. Mainly due to a very poor education system. I'm not talking about Chinese educated abroad, but ones educated (or not) in China.

[yoshiwara]

This is not about the US. It is about a massive debt and real estate bubble in China. It is about falling manufacturing in China. It is about 40% of China's GDP being real estate construction. It is about interest rates on that real estate bubble rising to around 100%. It is about China being communist and owning much of the means of production. It is about burgeoning Chinese debt both public and private.

China is crashing. If someone wants to make that about the US, we could make it about the Eurozone or the UK and their massive borrowing and spending. We could make it about Greece and Italy and France and Portugal and so on. But that's all off topic.

China is in big trouble and it doesn't have its own inventions or technology to pull out of it. It copies poorly and/or builds to spec for companies in the West and that demand is falling.

You are correct regarding the debt which I agree with you about.

As for total collapse, if you are correct, I would still put my money on the young Chinese people being able to mentally and physically adapt to any consequential hardship and to be able to build themselves backup with resilience that todays young Americans and Europeans couldn't even come close to.

I have many friends who work in China. Their description of Chinese workers is not so glowing. Mainly due to a very poor education system. I'm not talking about Chinese educated abroad, but ones educated (or not) in China.

Peking University. Highly ranked.

[Naam]

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

the typical Japanese saver, who lives in Osaka, has not lost anything because he saved JP¥, thinks JP¥ and pays for his/her expenses with JP¥. his/her only concern is the Yen's purchase power in Osaka.

the same applies to a Brit, who lives in Manchester, saves GBP, thinks GBP and pays for his/her expenses with GBP. his/her concern is the Pound's purchase power in Manchester.

the Brit in Manchester does not care how much the Pound lost vs Thai Baht or any other currency and neither does the Japanese in Osaka care how much the Yen lost vs. Dollar or EURo.

A nation like Japan, lacking in major natural resources like oil, metals, rubber, etc., have to import and pay in foreign currencies. The Japanese saver will face higher inflation eating up his savings that earn very low interest rates.

this is getting quite embarrassing Trogers. doing a little homework wouldn't harm!

for the record:

-the Japanese saver has experienced deflation since nearly 24 years.

-the Bank of Japan has been trying desperately during the above-mentioned period to generate some inflation, until now without any success.

-Japanese companies are producing worldwide in presently 63 countries earning a variety of foreign currencies and repatriating their foreign currency profits. the same applies to companies producing in Japan.

-"Abenomics", introduced last october, have succeeded to reduce the strength of JP¥ which has hurt export industries tremendousl as well as Japanese companies producing abroad.

-JP¥ has appreciated vs the benchmark currency USD by >100% from 1990 till autumn last year.

[trogers]

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

the typical Japanese saver, who lives in Osaka, has not lost anything because he saved JP¥, thinks JP¥ and pays for his/her expenses with JP¥. his/her only concern is the Yen's purchase power in Osaka.

the same applies to a Brit, who lives in Manchester, saves GBP, thinks GBP and pays for his/her expenses with GBP. his/her concern is the Pound's purchase power in Manchester.

the Brit in Manchester does not care how much the Pound lost vs Thai Baht or any other currency and neither does the Japanese in Osaka care how much the Yen lost vs. Dollar or EURo.

A nation like Japan, lacking in major natural resources like oil, metals, rubber, etc., have to import and pay in foreign currencies. The Japanese saver will face higher inflation eating up his savings that earn very low interest rates.

this is getting quite embarrassing Trogers. doing a little homework wouldn't harm!

for the record:

-the Japanese saver has experienced deflation since nearly 24 years.

-the Bank of Japan has been trying desperately during the above-mentioned period to generate some inflation, until now without any success.

-Japanese companies are producing worldwide in presently 63 countries earning a variety of foreign currencies and repatriating their foreign currency profits. the same applies to companies producing in Japan.

-"Abenomics", introduced last october, have succeeded to reduce the strength of JP¥ which has hurt export industries tremendousl as well as Japanese companies producing abroad.

-JP¥ has appreciated vs the benchmark currency USD by >100% from 1990 till autumn last year.

The deflation that you referred to is largely in the value of assets - land and real estate, and not in the cost of consumables. I do not believe that a litre of petrol is still at the price of 24 years ago, or if deflation is taken into consideration, cheaper than the price 24 years ago.

Many asian currencies appreciated against USD, eg. the Thai Baht was at 53 in 1997 and now 30.

[yoshiwara]

this is getting quite embarrassing Trogers. doing a little homework wouldn't harm!

for the record:

-the Japanese saver has experienced deflation since nearly 24 years.

-the Bank of Japan has been trying desperately during the above-mentioned period to generate some inflation, until now without any success.

-Japanese companies are producing worldwide in presently 63 countries earning a variety of foreign currencies and repatriating their foreign currency profits. the same applies to companies producing in Japan.

-"Abenomics", introduced last october, have succeeded to reduce the strength of JP¥ which has hurt export industries tremendousl as well as Japanese companies producing abroad.

-JP¥ has appreciated vs the benchmark currency USD by >100% from 1990 till autumn last year.

The deflation that you referred to is largely in the value of assets - land and real estate, and not in the cost of consumables. I do not believe that a litre of petrol is still at the price of 24 years ago, or if deflation is taken into consideration, cheaper than the price 24 years ago.

Many asian currencies appreciated against USD, eg. the Thai Baht was at 53 in 1997 and now 30.

[NeverSure]

this is getting quite embarrassing Trogers. doing a little homework wouldn't harm!

for the record:

-the Japanese saver has experienced deflation since nearly 24 years.

-the Bank of Japan has been trying desperately during the above-mentioned period to generate some inflation, until now without any success.

-Japanese companies are producing worldwide in presently 63 countries earning a variety of foreign currencies and repatriating their foreign currency profits. the same applies to companies producing in Japan.

-"Abenomics", introduced last october, have succeeded to reduce the strength of JP¥ which has hurt export industries tremendousl as well as Japanese companies producing abroad.

-JP¥ has appreciated vs the benchmark currency USD by >100% from 1990 till autumn last year.

The deflation that you referred to is largely in the value of assets - land and real estate, and not in the cost of consumables. I do not believe that a litre of petrol is still at the price of 24 years ago, or if deflation is taken into consideration, cheaper than the price 24 years ago.

Many asian currencies appreciated against USD, eg. the Thai Baht was at 53 in 1997 and now 30.

japan inflation rate.JPG

But how does Japan figure its inflation rate? For instance, the US doesn't count food or energy such as fuel and utilities in the inflation index and those are two things that are rising faster that the so-called official inflation rate. People really feel it when food, gas or diesel and home heating/aircon rise.

Does anyone know what Japan includes and excludes from its inflation numbers? I find it hard to believe that food and fuel prices haven't risen about the same as they have worldwide in Japan for 24 years. The they have this nuclear disaster. Does that have any affect on electricity prices?

[Naam]

The deflation that you referred to is largely in the value of assets - land and real estate, and not in the cost of consumables. I do not believe that a litre of petrol is still at the price of 24 years ago, or if deflation is taken into consideration, cheaper than the price 24 years ago.

Many asian currencies appreciated against USD, eg. the Thai Baht was at 53 in 1997 and now 30.

land and real estate = buying or renting accomodation is the major part of living expenses in a highly industrialised and in the case of Japan densely populated country.

as i proved your other points ad absurdum (earning foreign currency, savers lost..., etc.) getting only a lame "many asian currencies appreciated..." i [not so] humbly beg to be released from further discussing layman's macro economics.

[lovetotravel]

This is not about the US. It is about a massive debt and real estate bubble in China. It is about falling manufacturing in China. It is about 40% of China's GDP being real estate construction. It is about interest rates on that real estate bubble rising to around 100%. It is about China being communist and owning much of the means of production. It is about burgeoning Chinese debt both public and private.

China is crashing. If someone wants to make that about the US, we could make it about the Eurozone or the UK and their massive borrowing and spending. We could make it about Greece and Italy and France and Portugal and so on. But that's all off topic.

China is in big trouble and it doesn't have its own inventions or technology to pull out of it. It copies poorly and/or builds to spec for companies in the West and that demand is falling.

You are correct regarding the debt which I agree with you about.

As for total collapse, if you are correct, I would still put my money on the young Chinese people being able to mentally and physically adapt to any consequential hardship and to be able to build themselves backup with resilience that todays young Americans and Europeans couldn't even come close to.

I have many friends who work in China. Their description of Chinese workers is not so glowing. Mainly due to a very poor education system. I'm not talking about Chinese educated abroad, but ones educated (or not) in China.

Peking University. Highly ranked.

I'm sure. But the same problems we have here, they also have. Bought degrees is a biggie.

[midas]

Suddenly there is a chance the ghost cities in China can be filled up very quickly and maybe earn premium rate rents.

Whilst China and Japan are not exactly the best of friends I wonder if such differences can be brushed aside in the event of an emergency?

Based on what's happening in Fukushima the Japanese are now actually admitting the possibility for the need to evacuate Tokyo can't be entirely dismissed if something goes wrong (when they start trying to remove the spent fuel rods in November ).

You could end up with 40 million Japanese needing accommodation

[Naam]

my late Dad used to say "son, it's okay to drink once in a while alcohol. but if you drink then go for good wine in reasonable quantities. because unreasonable quantities of cheap booze cause delirium tremens, i.e. hallucinations of white mice, pink elephants and other strange things.

with "other strange things" he must have meant hallucinations such as 40 million Japanese moving to China.

Edited August 20, 2013 by Naam

[MB1]

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

the typical Japanese saver, who lives in Osaka, has not lost anything because he saved JP¥, thinks JP¥ and pays for his/her expenses with JP¥. his/her only concern is the Yen's purchase power in Osaka.

the same applies to a Brit, who lives in Manchester, saves GBP, thinks GBP and pays for his/her expenses with GBP. his/her concern is the Pound's purchase power in Manchester.

the Brit in Manchester does not care how much the Pound lost vs Thai Baht or any other currency and neither does the Japanese in Osaka care how much the Yen lost vs. Dollar or EURo.

But the Brit who lives in Leeds and travels to Thailand does care about what the pound has lost to the Thai Baht, only a few tears ago I was getting 79/80,000 baht for £1000 UK Pounds, today I'd get around 49,000 Baht, a loss of 31,000 baht, or in UK pounds about £620, oh well must try and make up the losses by working harder...

Edited August 20, 2013 by MB1

[Lancelot]

my late Dad used to say "son, it's okay to drink once in a while alcohol. but if you drink then go for good wine in reasonable quantities. because unreasonable quantities of cheap booze cause delirium tremens, i.e. hallucinations of white mice, pink elephants and other strange things.

with "other strange things" he must have meant hallucinations such as 40 million Japanese moving to China.

Oh the Demon Alcohol...

[midas]

my late Dad used to say "son, it's okay to drink once in a while alcohol. but if you drink then go for good wine in reasonable quantities. because unreasonable quantities of cheap booze cause delirium tremens, i.e. hallucinations of white mice, pink elephants and other strange things.

with "other strange things" he must have meant hallucinations such as 40 million Japanese moving to China.

Necessity is the mother of invention