Is China crashing?

[jbrain]

Yes, the typical japanese is also a keen saver, and those who so did for the last few decades just lost a third of their savings a few months ago, when the Yen took a dive.

Saving your income in a hole under the floor will mean losing wealth due to inflation.

the typical Japanese saver, who lives in Osaka, has not lost anything because he saved JP¥, thinks JP¥ and pays for his/her expenses with JP¥. his/her only concern is the Yen's purchase power in Osaka.

the same applies to a Brit, who lives in Manchester, saves GBP, thinks GBP and pays for his/her expenses with GBP. his/her concern is the Pound's purchase power in Manchester.

the Brit in Manchester does not care how much the Pound lost vs Thai Baht or any other currency and neither does the Japanese in Osaka care how much the Yen lost vs. Dollar or EURo.

But the Brit who lives in Leeds and travels to Thailand does care about what the pound has lost to the Thai Baht, only a few tears ago I was getting 79/80,000 baht for £1000 UK Pounds, today I'd get around 49,000 Baht, a loss of 31,000 baht, or in UK pounds about £620, oh well must try and make up the losses by working harder...

Or take short times instead of all in long times

Edited August 20, 2013 by jbrain

[NeverSure]

Story about repatriating manufacturing from China to the US, cost China business.

‘Made in America’ Makes Comeback as Gas, Labor Costs Fall"

By Jennifer Booton Published August 20, 2013 FOXBusiness

The U.S. is well positioned to dodge the increase in labor costs many developed nations have seen and that might help fuel a rebound in American manufacturing jobs through 2020, according to the Boston Consulting Group.

The U.S. has been enjoying some of the biggest gains in exports over the last few years as its production-cost advantage improves over some of its biggest rivals in Western Europe, including Germany and the Nordic nations, as well as Japan.

The latest report released by BCG on Tuesday expands on an earlier one released last September that predicted both rising exports in the U.S. as well as "re-shoring" from China could add 2.5 million to 5 million manufacturing jobs by the end of the decade.

“Over the past 40 years, factory jobs of all kinds have migrated from high-cost to low-cost countries,” said Harold Sirkin, a BCG senior partner. “Now, as the economics of global manufacturing changes, the pendulum is finally starting to swing back.” (Bold is mine)

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2013/08/20/made-in-america-continues-to-make-comeback-as-gas-labor-costs-fall/#ixzz2cXLhfqXk

Edited August 20, 2013 by NeverSure

[LawrenceChee]

Story about repatriating manufacturing from China to the US, cost China business.

‘Made in America’ Makes Comeback as Gas, Labor Costs Fall"

By Jennifer Booton Published August 20, 2013 FOXBusiness

The U.S. is well positioned to dodge the increase in labor costs many developed nations have seen and that might help fuel a rebound in American manufacturing jobs through 2020, according to the Boston Consulting Group.

The U.S. has been enjoying some of the biggest gains in exports over the last few years as its production-cost advantage improves over some of its biggest rivals in Western Europe, including Germany and the Nordic nations, as well as Japan.

The latest report released by BCG on Tuesday expands on an earlier one released last September that predicted both rising exports in the U.S. as well as "re-shoring" from China could add 2.5 million to 5 million manufacturing jobs by the end of the decade.

“Over the past 40 years, factory jobs of all kinds have migrated from high-cost to low-cost countries,” said Harold Sirkin, a BCG senior partner. “Now, as the economics of global manufacturing changes, the pendulum is finally starting to swing back.” (Bold is mine)

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2013/08/20/made-in-america-continues-to-make-comeback-as-gas-labor-costs-fall/#ixzz2cXLhfqXk

Finally thy are taking it back along with pollution...maybe there will be hope for Beijing air quality next year :-)

I say take more back...

[craigt3365]

my late Dad used to say "son, it's okay to drink once in a while alcohol. but if you drink then go for good wine in reasonable quantities. because unreasonable quantities of cheap booze cause delirium tremens, i.e. hallucinations of white mice, pink elephants and other strange things.

with "other strange things" he must have meant hallucinations such as 40 million Japanese moving to China.

Too funny. My father use to say something similar. If you're going to drink, drink good booze.

I remember my first trip to Europe many years ago. Was jet lagged and on a train in Germany heading to Amsterdam. Met a bunch of guys who were drinking heavily, so I joined in. The beer's name? Pink Elephant! 55555

[lovetotravel]

Finally thy are taking it back along with pollution...maybe there will be hope for Beijing air quality next year :-)

I say take more back...

Beijing's air quality is primarily due to their absolute rejection of pollution standards and controls, as well as a variety of environmental disasters. Europe and the US have done very well developing manufacturing processes that are ahead of the Chinese's, with regards to this.

Try building one of those pollution producing plants in Europe or the US. Won't happen.

If manufacturing really does start flowing back, China will be in big trouble. Their trump card now is just cheap manufacturing and copying existing technology. Not research and innovation.

Let's not forget what one major source of air pollution in Beijing is, which is man made:

http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/28/17130220-sandstorm-pushes-beijing-pollution-levels-off-the-charts?lite

And why these storms develop:

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/unep216.doc.htm

Eighty per cent of natural disasters worldwide occur in Asia. Between 1991 and 2001, natural disasters affected over 1.7 million Asians, costing $369 billion in damages.

........

"We are worried about the creep of environmental problems - their disrespect of political boundaries -- and the way they threaten to compound and disrupt the functioning of major natural systems", Mr. Toepfer said.

In China, nearly 30 per cent of its land area is affected by desertification due to over-farming and grazing and cutting of forest, driven by population growth, and changing weather patterns, with annual direct economic losses of around $6,500 million.

UNEP's Global Environment Outlook Yearbook states the Gobi Desert in China expanded by 52,400 square kilometres from 1994 to 1999, creeping ever closer to Beijing. Up to 400 million people are under threat from the fast-advancing deserts.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1204076/deforestation-blame-beijings-pollution

Xun Zhou says the smog and dust that now plague Beijing can be traced back to the massive deforestation during the Great Leap Forward that left China scarred by environmental disaster

Edited August 21, 2013 by lovetotravel

[LawrenceChee]

Finally thy are taking it back along with pollution...maybe there will be hope for Beijing air quality next year :-)

I say take more back...

Beijing's air quality is primarily due to their absolute rejection of pollution standards and controls, as well as a variety of environmental disasters. Europe and the US have done very well developing manufacturing processes that are ahead of the Chinese's, with regards to this.

Try building one of those pollution producing plants in Europe or the US. Won't happen.

If manufacturing really does start flowing back, China will be in big trouble. Their trump card now is just cheap manufacturing and copying existing technology. Not research and innovation.

Let's not forget what one major source of air pollution in Beijing is, which is man made:

http://behindthewall.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/28/17130220-sandstorm-pushes-beijing-pollution-levels-off-the-charts?lite

And why these storms develop:

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/unep216.doc.htm

Eighty per cent of natural disasters worldwide occur in Asia. Between 1991 and 2001, natural disasters affected over 1.7 million Asians, costing $369 billion in damages.

........

"We are worried about the creep of environmental problems - their disrespect of political boundaries -- and the way they threaten to compound and disrupt the functioning of major natural systems", Mr. Toepfer said.

In China, nearly 30 per cent of its land area is affected by desertification due to over-farming and grazing and cutting of forest, driven by population growth, and changing weather patterns, with annual direct economic losses of around $6,500 million.

UNEP's Global Environment Outlook Yearbook states the Gobi Desert in China expanded by 52,400 square kilometres from 1994 to 1999, creeping ever closer to Beijing. Up to 400 million people are under threat from the fast-advancing deserts.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1204076/deforestation-blame-beijings-pollution

Xun Zhou says the smog and dust that now plague Beijing can be traced back to the massive deforestation during the Great Leap Forward that left China scarred by environmental disaster

Nope send the cheap manufacturing back to west and let china be the buyer of cheap goods ..works the same way after all they have the cash to buy ...

[LawrenceChee]

At the very least it gives them a headsup in trying to right the wrong environmental destruction minus the smog from the factories

[lovetotravel]

At the very least it gives them a headsup in trying to right the wrong environmental destruction minus the smog from the factories

Good point. I hope they can do it. But so far there's not been much action on this front.

Of course Europe and America had massive problems with environmental destruction. Luckily, for the most part, they are trying to turn it around.

Best of luck to China, as what they do will have an impact globally. Pollution doesn't respect borders.

[LawrenceChee]

At the very least it gives them a headsup in trying to right the wrong environmental destruction minus the smog from the factories

Good point. I hope they can do it. But so far there's not been much action on this front.

Of course Europe and America had massive problems with environmental destruction. Luckily, for the most part, they are trying to turn it around.

Best of luck to China, as what they do will have an impact globally. Pollution doesn't respect borders.

Very true..need to go back into responsible consumerism instead of mass production which is hurting everyone

This new government for the next 10 years is trying to tackle a lot of fronts and problems ...not easy to get any agreement on most decisions as 1.3 billion people has a lot of diverse views and needs

[Naam]

Beijing's air quality is primarily due to their absolute rejection of pollution standards and controls, as well as a variety of environmental disasters. Europe and the US have done very well developing manufacturing processes that are ahead of the Chinese's, with regards to this.

industrialised countries polluted the environment for more than a century not to mention irreversible global pollution caused by hundreds of above ground nuclear weapon tests.

and if you compare their present pollution per capita with China's pollution then the Chinese, inspite of using "backward" manufacturing processes rank still far "back" as far as polluting is concerned.

[midas]

Luxury in China loses luster as wealthy flee

(Reuters) - Wealthy Chinese are likely to buy fewer luxury goods again this year after the steepest cut-back on spending in at least five years, changing the game for high-end retailers like Louis Vuitton which have staked their growth on China.

Overall spending by wealthy Chinese fell by 15 percent in 2013, the third consecutive year of decline, according to a survey by the Hurun Report. Spending on gifts in particular also declined by a quarter.

The drop coincides with a government crackdown on corruption and gifting, as well as an a growing penchant for travelling and shopping overseas to circumvent Chinese consumption taxes on luxury goods as high as 40 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/16/us-china-luxury-hurun-idUSBREA0F0H320140116

Edited January 16, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

I'm sure. But the same problems we have here, they also have. Bought degrees is a biggie.

In THES World University Rankings, Peking is in the top 50. Maybe you know of something why they shouldn't be.

[Senechal]

Their trump card now is just cheap manufacturing and copying existing technology. Not research and innovation.

The same was said of Japan. Then Korea. Now China. And if you go back far enough -- the same was once said of America.

It's always said of every emerging economy as part of a "feel good" superiority mindset. "We're the creative geniuses, and their inferior culture just copies us". Please. It's true until it isn't.

There's loads of awesome innovation coming out of China today, in every field from textiles, to efficient manufacturing techniques, to chip design to aerospace. When the next major global conflict comes, the West will learn the hard way just how flimsy the belief in superior "ingenuity" is -- just like the first US pilots that tried to turn with a Zero in a dogfight and discovered that Japan had a few dam_n good ideas.

Meanwhile the US holds up silly stats like "how much we spend on R&D" as if the costs are relative, and the output equal. (F-35/JSF anyone? LOL). Just watch as the next generation of Chinese phones crushes Japan, Korea and the US in cost, design and technology. And we won't even discuss the coming shitshow of Chinese drone technology, anti-ship missiles, stealth planes and orbital platforms. No innovation? We're talking about a nation with no shortage of extremely smart, extremely creative and extremely motivated people.

We all discount that at our own peril. And it will surely bite us in the rear one day.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Senechal

[midas]

Their trump card now is just cheap manufacturing and copying existing technology. Not research and innovation.

The same was said of Japan. Then Korea. Now China. And if you go back far enough -- the same was once said of America.

It's always said of every emerging economy as part of a "feel good" superiority mindset. "We're the creative geniuses, and their inferior culture just copies us". Please. It's true until it isn't.

There's loads of awesome innovation coming out of China today, in every field from textiles, to efficient manufacturing techniques, to chip design to aerospace. When the next major global conflict comes, the West will learn the hard way just how flimsy the belief in superior "ingenuity" is -- just like the first US pilots that tried to turn with a Zero in a dogfight and discovered that Japan had a few dam_n good ideas.

Meanwhile the US holds up silly stats like "how much we spend on R&D" as if the costs are relative, and the output equal. (F-35/JSF anyone? LOL). Just watch as the next generation of Chinese phones crushes Japan, Korea and the US in cost, design and technology. And we won't even discuss the coming shitshow of Chinese drone technology, anti-ship missiles, stealth planes and orbital platforms. No innovation? We're talking about a nation with no shortage of extremely smart, extremely creative and extremely motivated people.

We all discount that at our own peril. And it will surely bite us in the rear one day.

Even so, I do think the price for “ development “ is too high when doing this is a part of everyday life

Straight out of dystopian sci-fi: Beijing so smoggy they now show sunrises on giant TV screen: pic.twitter.com/FSgH8V3KlO

[canuckoverseas]

I disagree, the world needs cheap items and someone has to make them, have you never looked around Big C, Tesco, Walmart, Woolworths, the myriad of Poundsaver stores and so on? Not everyone wants or can afford high quality costly items.

Shopping at Walmart is a choice, as with much consumer activity. With on shoring and adoption of new technologies such as 3d printing, china will quickly lose their competitive advantage, and the inefficiencies in the their system will be increasingly exposed.

There was an article on Bloomberg the other day saying that a record number of Chinese millionaires are now emigrating to the west, purchasing property, and claiming citizenship for their children....this is the sign that the good times in china are quickly coming to an end. Without democratic reforms, their poorer disenfranchised population will become increasingly restless...not unlike the current protests in Thailand or Ukraine. Expect more corruption scandals to tarnish the politburo in 2014 .

Another key indicator, demographics. China is growing older, faster than many expected. Even with current reforms to the one child policy, there will still be a labor shortage going forward the next couple of decades. The US on the other hand has quite a stable aging population, not to mention a relatively open immigration policy.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited January 19, 2014 by canuckoverseas

[Naam]

With on shoring and adoption of new technologies such as 3d printing, china will quickly lose their competitive advantage, and the inefficiencies in the their system will be increasingly exposed.

keep on dreaming.

[Naam]

China’s 2013 New Home Sales to Exceed $1 Trillion, Record High

China’s new home sales last year likely exceeded $1 trillion for the first time as property prices in cities the government considers first tier surged in the absence of more nationwide property curbs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/china-s-2013-new-home-sales-to-exceed-1-trillion-record-high.html

Edited January 19, 2014 by Naam

[chiang mai]

Did we crash, are we there yet huh are we?

[Naam]

3D printing in the Greatest Nation on Earth™ will cause China to crash

[midas]

Bloomberg reports that second Chinese corporate bond default may be imminent after the collapse and arrest of the largest shareholder of closely held Chinese real estate developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co, which just happens to be saddled with 3.5 billion yuan ($566.6 million) of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-17/chinese-developer-with-3-5-billion-yuan-in-debt-said-to-collapse.html

[Naam]

Bloomberg reports that second Chinese corporate bond default may be imminent after the collapse and arrest of the largest shareholder of closely held Chinese real estate developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co, which just happens to be saddled with 3.5 billion yuan ($566.6 million) of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-17/chinese-developer-with-3-5-billion-yuan-in-debt-said-to-collapse.html

for the sake of comparison... the Brits have two aircraft carriers under construction. each costing "presently" in excess of 5 billion Dollars. let's take a wild guess what the cost will be when they are sailing in 2017/18 ...or whenever.

meantime in other corners of these planets we experienced last year till end of october

Through the end of October, defaults by those global bond issuers followed by this rating agency were reported to total 65.

Of the 65 corporate bond defaults reported thus far in 2013, 36 of the issuers were in the U.S. Twelve of the issuers were in Europe and 14 in emerging markets; the remaining three defaulting bond issuers were in other developed markets.

Twenty-eight of the 65 corporate bond defaults reported so far this year came as a result of missed interest or principal payments. Seventeen of the total defaults resulted from bankruptcy filings.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865590373/Corporate-credit-defaults-for-2013-tracking-2012-levels.html?pg=all

[midas]

Bloomberg reports that second Chinese corporate bond default may be imminent after the collapse and arrest of the largest shareholder of closely held Chinese real estate developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co, which just happens to be saddled with 3.5 billion yuan ($566.6 million) of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-17/chinese-developer-with-3-5-billion-yuan-in-debt-said-to-collapse.html

for the sake of comparison... the Brits have two aircraft carriers under construction. each costing "presently" in excess of 5 billion Dollars. let's take a wild guess what the cost will be when they are sailing in 2017/18 ...or whenever.

meantime in other corners of these planets we experienced last year till end of october

Through the end of October, defaults by those global bond issuers followed by this rating agency were reported to total 65.

Of the 65 corporate bond defaults reported thus far in 2013, 36 of the issuers were in the U.S. Twelve of the issuers were in Europe and 14 in emerging markets; the remaining three defaulting bond issuers were in other developed markets.

Twenty-eight of the 65 corporate bond defaults reported so far this year came as a result of missed interest or principal payments. Seventeen of the total defaults resulted from bankruptcy filings.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865590373/Corporate-credit-defaults-for-2013-tracking-2012-levels.html?pg=all

ah but………….. here is the icing on the cake which I think you will find since 2008 has wormed and permeated throughout every aspect of the global financial system

" CITIC Trust tried to auction the collateral but failed to do so because the developer has sold the collateral and also mortgaged it to a few other lenders."

[Naam]

Bloomberg reports that second Chinese corporate bond default may be imminent after the collapse and arrest of the largest shareholder of closely held Chinese real estate developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co, which just happens to be saddled with 3.5 billion yuan ($566.6 million) of debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-17/chinese-developer-with-3-5-billion-yuan-in-debt-said-to-collapse.html

for the sake of comparison... the Brits have two aircraft carriers under construction. each costing "presently" in excess of 5 billion Dollars. let's take a wild guess what the cost will be when they are sailing in 2017/18 ...or whenever.

meantime in other corners of these planets we experienced last year till end of october

Through the end of October, defaults by those global bond issuers followed by this rating agency were reported to total 65.

Of the 65 corporate bond defaults reported thus far in 2013, 36 of the issuers were in the U.S. Twelve of the issuers were in Europe and 14 in emerging markets; the remaining three defaulting bond issuers were in other developed markets.

Twenty-eight of the 65 corporate bond defaults reported so far this year came as a result of missed interest or principal payments. Seventeen of the total defaults resulted from bankruptcy filings.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865590373/Corporate-credit-defaults-for-2013-tracking-2012-levels.html?pg=all

ah but………….. here is the icing on the cake which I think you will find since 2008 has wormed and permeated throughout every aspect of the global financial system

" CITIC Trust tried to auction the collateral but failed to do so because the developer has sold the collateral and also mortgaged it to a few other lenders."

one of a dozen reasons in corporate bankruptcies. but whatever, China will not crash because a company of birdshit size crashed.

[midas]

The voices seem to be getting louder

The dominoes begin to fall in China

What’s going on in China reminds me a lot of what I witnessed firsthand when I lived in South Korea in the 1990s, before that economy’s crash in 1998.

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-dominoes-begin-to-fall-in-china-13879/

[SheungWan]

The voices seem to be getting louder

The dominoes begin to fall in China

What’s going on in China reminds me a lot of what I witnessed firsthand when I lived in South Korea in the 1990s, before that economy’s crash in 1998.

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-dominoes-begin-to-fall-in-china-13879/

The voices. In your head. Getting louder.

[midas]

Hong Kong's The Standard reported that in addition to the solar, coal and real-estate developer companies that are on everyone's radar as potential future bankruptcy candidates, one can also add steel makers to the list, with its report that Highsee Group, the largest private steel makers in Shanxi province has defaulted on CNY3 billion of debt, unable to repay its bonds on time.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=143637&sid=41853458&con_type=1&d_str=20140320

Edited March 20, 2014 by midas

[midas]

Angry Chinese Homeowners Vent Frustrations After Price Cuts

Homeowners Demand Their Money Back After Developer Cuts Prices on New Homes

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303802104579455000745605352?mg=reno64-wsj&cb=logged0.8696218673941988

Edited March 24, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

Angry Chinese Homeowners Vent Frustrations After Price Cuts

Homeowners Demand Their Money Back After Developer Cuts Prices on New Homes

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303802104579455000745605352?mg=reno64-wsj&cb=logged0.8696218673941988

No property owner is happy when a developer drops prices on new developments. Hardly a crisis and tough cheese.