Its Happening - Law to Tax Overseas Income Now in Progress

[NeverSure]

Interest rates have begun to rise in the West. This is pulling capital out of Asia. For a time capital has flowed into Asia for better interest rates.

Add to that some less than stellar economic news from Asia, and a few folks will consider the West as a safer haven and they will move their money. I did say consider the West safer, but I'm not here to debate whether that's true.

Thailand is a mess. Corruption, falling exports, 1 trillion baht in short term debt for the rice scheme, deficit spending creating more debt, record consumer debt among people with low incomes, what I consider to be a condo glut with the banks heavily invested in loans for them. I could go on, but I don't have any money in SE Asia right now.

As they say, up to you. I'm no fortune teller.

[wooloomooloo]

Give it a year and we'll buy some more land. There's ups and downs and get in there when the price is right.

[MrWorldwide]

http://www.siliconindia.com/news/business/Top-10-Economies-By-2030-nid-144204-cid-3.html

(crap English in that writeup, but they are all based on simlar guesstimates - google 'Bggest economies by 2030')

1. China

2. US

3. India

4. Japan

5. Germany

6. Russian Federation

7. Brazil

8. Mexico

9. France

10. Indonesia

We can debate that list (I dont know about China, but its a projection - lets run with it), but no-one would argue that Indonesia is easily the biggest economy in our region .I've seen Indonesia ranked as high as sixth in other lists - my point is that the country faces huge problems if it is to maintain anything resemblng current growth rates. Massive, endemic corruption that leaves even the local shaking their heads, but what else have they got ? An almost bottomless pool of cheap labor and a huge domestic economy. Hmm - India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia - all countries facing gigantic internal challenges, but they are also open for business.

Let's not be too keen to write countries off because they have problems - Japan has problems, and has had for decades, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. I could mention the countries that have slid off that list over the years, but that would only start a flame war.

Edited August 20, 2013 by MrWorldwide

[NeverSure]

http://www.siliconindia.com/news/business/Top-10-Economies-By-2030-nid-144204-cid-3.html

(crap English in that writeup, but they are all based on simlar guesstimates - google 'Bggest economies by 2030')

1. China

2. US

3. India

4. Japan

5. Germany

6. Russian Federation

7. Brazil

8. Mexico

9. France

10. Indonesia

We can debate that list (I dont know about China, but its a projection - lets run with it), but no-one would argue that Indonesia is easily the biggest economy in our region .I've seen Indonesia ranked as high as sixth in other lists - my point is that the country faces huge problems if it is to maintain anything resemblng current growth rates. Massive, endemic corruption that leaves even the local shaking their heads, but what else have they got ? An almost bottomless pool of cheap labor and a huge domestic economy. Hmm - India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia - all countries facing gigantic internal challenges, but they are also open for business.

Let's not be too keen to write countries off because they have problems - Japan has problems, and has had for decades, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. I could mention the countries that have slid off that list over the years, but that would only start a flame war.

Hitting China’s Wall

By PAUL KRUGMAN New York Times

Published: July 18, 2013

All economic data are best viewed as a peculiarly boring genre of science fiction, but Chinese data are even more fictional than most. Add a secretive government, a controlled press, and the sheer size of the country, and it’s harder to figure out what’s really happening in China than it is in any other major economy.

Yet the signs are now unmistakable: China is in big trouble. We’re not talking about some minor setback along the way, but something more fundamental. The country’s whole way of doing business, the economic system that has driven three decades of incredible growth, has reached its limits. You could say that the Chinese model is about to hit its Great Wall, and the only question now is just how bad the crash will be.

(emphasis mine)

Read More

[chiang mai]

Can we get back on subject please, none of this, interesting as it is, has anything much to do with THB.

[MrWorldwide]

Yep - no shortage of doom-n-gloom out there - I've seen the docos on the 'ghost cities' and I've read the same warnings you have. If China does go under economically, it will have repercussions for the region that go way beyond our respective balances of trade. If Obama thought Detroit was 'too big to fail', how do you think he feels about China ? A nuclear power with kleptocrats at the helm presiding over mass civil unrest - I think I saw the movie adaptation. It was called 'Armageddon' ....

BTW, how many of those same pundits have been predicting the collapse of the Euro zone for the last 4 years ?

[MrWorldwide]

Can we get back on subject please, none of this, interesting as it is, has anything much to do with THB.

You honestly believe that baht's value against other currencies has nothing to do with China ? Seriously ?

[agogohome]

49.1 baht to gbp today,will be keeping an eye on the situation in the next few days,could be worth cashing 10,000gbp soon.

Long way to go yet. I got 91 Baht/GBP when I moved here :-)

Edited August 21, 2013 by agogohome

[chiang mai]

Can we get back on subject please, none of this, interesting as it is, has anything much to do with THB.

You honestly believe that baht's value against other currencies has nothing to do with China ? Seriously ?

The current downward trend of THB is being driven by decisions on the US Feds QE program and by factors associated with the Thai economy. That same impact is being felt throughout Asia, India and Austral Asia and is probably one of the most important single economic events of the past few years. In that context the state of the Chinese economy is not directly relevant to the OP or this discussion.

[i claudius]

Can we get back on subject please, none of this, interesting as it is, has anything much to do with THB.

You honestly believe that baht's value against other currencies has nothing to do with China ? Seriously ?

The current downward trend of THB is being driven by decisions on the US Feds QE program and by factors associated with the Thai economy. That same impact is being felt throughout Asia, India and Austral Asia and is probably one of the most important single economic events of the past few years. In that context the state of the Chinese economy is not directly relevant to the OP or this discussion.

There is one thing that no one has mentioned ,the elephant in the room , what then?

[chiang mai]

Can we get back on subject please, none of this, interesting as it is, has anything much to do with THB.

You honestly believe that baht's value against other currencies has nothing to do with China ? Seriously ?

The current downward trend of THB is being driven by decisions on the US Feds QE program and by factors associated with the Thai economy. That same impact is being felt throughout Asia, India and Austral Asia and is probably one of the most important single economic events of the past few years. In that context the state of the Chinese economy is not directly relevant to the OP or this discussion.

There is one thing that no one has mentioned ,the elephant in the room , what then?

I really don't think that's a factor, THB exchange rates hardly moved during the red shirt riots in BKK a few years back so I can't see any reason why that event would have an impact other than to weaken GDP through lost production for a period of time.

[longstebe]

49.1 baht to gbp today,will be keeping an eye on the situation in the next few days,could be worth cashing 10,000gbp soon.

 

Long way to go yet. I got 91 Baht/GBP when I moved here :-)

Oooooo I'll av a bit of that. 75 was the most I got.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[MrWorldwide]

i claudius, we dont talk about the elephant. Ever. I know where you are coming from, but its not even on the table.

[Berkshire]

but no-one would argue that Indonesia is easily the biggest economy in our region .I've seen Indonesia ranked as high as sixth in other lists - my point is that the country faces huge problems if it is to maintain anything resemblng current growth rates. Massive, endemic corruption that leaves even the local shaking their heads, but what else have they got ? An almost bottomless pool of cheap labor and a huge domestic economy. Hmm - India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia - all countries facing gigantic internal challenges, but they are also open for business.

You're right that Indonesia has issues. Their population is about four times that of Thailand, yet their GDP is a little more than double--and most of that I'm guessing is from oil. If not for oil production and the like, they'd probably be like the Philippines...which is not a compliment. For all its ills, I'd say Thailand's future is much brighter than India, Brazil, Mexico, or Indonesia. As for China....big question mark.

[fish fingers]

The thai economy is in some trouble atm, I don't see things improving. Its great for the exchange rate tho, we shd see it going past 50 to the £ today.

In '98 the thai economy was the first to burst, so many other asian countries are more than a little concerned. If the index has another drop, we might see a bit of a panic. Also the Property market has seen a drop in prices v recently, people are starting to run scared and offloading new build condos.. I'm watching with interest!

[Gonzo the Face]

3 Cheers for the Shrinking Baht vs $ & others

Was getting tired of getting it up the giggy on ex rate on my pension.... Now to see if it can break thru the old record of 56+ as in the old days.... Pipe dream of course , but one can only hope.....

Not complaining as I started here with the baht pegged to the old 25 to the $

But what will be..... will be

[Berkshire]

3 Cheers for the Shrinking Baht vs $ & others

Was getting tired of getting it up the giggy on ex rate on my pension.... Now to see if it can break thru the old record of 56+ as in the old days.... Pipe dream of course , but one can only hope.....

Not complaining as I started here with the baht pegged to the old 25 to the $

But what will be..... will be

The trend is your friend. Looks like the dollar is poised to break 32. I'd settle for 35 in a heartbeat.

[yoshiwara]

3 Cheers for the Shrinking Baht vs $ & others

Was getting tired of getting it up the giggy on ex rate on my pension.... Now to see if it can break thru the old record of 56+ as in the old days.... Pipe dream of course , but one can only hope.....

Not complaining as I started here with the baht pegged to the old 25 to the $

But what will be..... will be

The trend is your friend. Looks like the dollar is poised to break 32. I'd settle for 35 in a heartbeat.

Its that worthless US Dollar again!

[pach16]

10 year ago approx. 1 euro 50 bath 70 uk or around that

[Naam]

10 year ago approx. 1 euro 50 bath 70 uk or around that

i like precise statements such as "approximately" or "around that"

[ArranP]

UK economy is improving, its been down since 2008, now starting to turn, at some point interest rates will rise also (they can't go any lower), I would imagine something similar for the US also.

The last years (2008 onwards) have been low exchange rates for the GBP / THB, also USD / THB (amongst others), as the West recovers so their interest rates will increase and thus the currency of the west strengthen.

I have no up-to-date knowledge about the local economy in Thailand or Asia, is the economy here weakening ?

[longstebe]

10 year ago approx. 1 euro 50 bath 70 uk or around that 

i like precise statements such as "approximately" or "around that"

Especially when it comes to telling my age

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