Thailand’s Economy Remains Healthy with No Sign of Recession

[mikemac]

Roll it in honey and sugar and call it whatever you like, it won't change the state of affairs in this country.

Look at the money borrowed, the money lost and wasted, the money that just disappeared, and then look at the person telling you that the Thai economy is doing well.................................................................

Well, you should be able to work it out.

But be warned, the truth can hurt.

[mikemac]

I know!!!

He is an idiot of the first order - he once stated that the 300 baht a day minimum wage would not have much of an impact on companies as it was a "one off thing"!!!!

[davejones]

Huh?

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Didn't I read just last week that Thailand's Economy slipped into *Recession Territory* this past quarter? is this not a *SIGN of a Recession*, being the first of the requisite 3 months running to be *Officially* in Recession? ;-} rap.

I means the country was in recession in the first two quarters of this year. It doesn't mean that the country is in recession now. There could well be no sign of recession now for the reasons given. It's now nearly the end of August, so we're two months into the third quarter. I expect there to be growth this quarter, so it's correct to say Thailand is not in recession. You only know for sure afterwards though.

[richard10365]

Bloomberg this morning, 28 August, 2013, said recession.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Bloomberg this morning, 28 August, 2013, said recession.

How can such an establishment as Bloomberg be so wrong and careless as to mention the R word. They are not in recession because it reflects badly on he government and they don't want to be in recession (so they are not)!!!

It doesn't matter that 2 consecutive negative growth periods are a recession because Thailand has its own rules of economics whereby there is always a reason for this happening. It is always down to bad luck, Abhisit and the Democrats, floods and never a consequence of how they govern the country.

Bloomberg should retract this and provide a full apology to the Thai govenment admitting they they are wrong.

[davejones]

Bloomberg this morning, 28 August, 2013, said recession.

Bloomberg is referring to Q1 & Q2, not Q3. They also predict growth for 2013 as a whole, so it's obvious that they don't expect it to be in recession Q3 or Q4.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Bloomberg this morning, 28 August, 2013, said recession.

Bloomberg is referring to Q1 & Q2, not Q3. They also predict growth for 2013 as a whole, so it's obvious that they don't expect it to be in recession Q3 or Q4.

That is irrelevant!!

The fact is they ARE in recession now.

[davejones]

 

Bloomberg this morning, 28 August, 2013, said recession.

Bloomberg is referring to Q1 & Q2, not Q3. They also predict growth for 2013 as a whole, so it's obvious that they don't expect it to be in recession Q3 or Q4.

That is irrelevant!!

The fact is they ARE in recession now.

 

I suggest you take a basic economics course. How the did you come up with that? Of course it's relevant. The FACT is that Q£ figures aren't out yet, so no-one knows for sure. But even Bloomberg expect Thailand to grow over the full year, and they are expecting good growth over Q3 & Q4. As it's now Q3, Thailand is probably out of recession. We'll get the figures in October.

[SICHONSTEVE]

 

Bloomberg this morning, 28 August, 2013, said recession.

Bloomberg is referring to Q1 & Q2, not Q3. They also predict growth for 2013 as a whole, so it's obvious that they don't expect it to be in recession Q3 or Q4.

That is irrelevant!!

The fact is they ARE in recession now.

 

I suggest you take a basic economics course. How the did you come up with that? Of course it's relevant. The FACT is that Q£ figures aren't out yet, so no-one knows for sure. But even Bloomberg expect Thailand to grow over the full year, and they are expecting good growth over Q3 & Q4. As it's now Q3, Thailand is probably out of recession. We'll get the figures in October.

Who doesn't know what they are talking about?

The first quarter was -1.7% and the second quarter was -0.3 so that makes 2 quarters in a row of negative growth. The definition of a recession is 2 successive quarters of negative growth. So..............

It doesn't matter whether there is growth in the third quarter or on the year - Thailand is currently in a recession....full stop!!!!!!!

[Naam]

Who doesn't know what they are talking about?

The first quarter was -1.7% and the second quarter was -0.3 so that makes 2 quarters in a row of negative growth. The definition of a recession is 2 successive quarters of negative growth. So..............

It doesn't matter whether there is growth in the third quarter or on the year - Thailand is currently in a recession....full stop!!!!!!!

unfortunately (for Thailand) your statement is correct.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Who doesn't know what they are talking about?

The first quarter was -1.7% and the second quarter was -0.3 so that makes 2 quarters in a row of negative growth. The definition of a recession is 2 successive quarters of negative growth. So..............

It doesn't matter whether there is growth in the third quarter or on the year - Thailand is currently in a recession....full stop!!!!!!!

unfortunately (for Thailand) your statement is correct.

Not according to Mr Jones it's not.

Funny how he hasn't attempted to defend himself on this - maybe he can't!!!

[davejones]

Who doesn't know what they are talking about?

The first quarter was -1.7% and the second quarter was -0.3 so that makes 2 quarters in a row of negative growth. The definition of a recession is 2 successive quarters of negative growth. So..............

It doesn't matter whether there is growth in the third quarter or on the year - Thailand is currently in a recession....full stop!!!!!!!

unfortunately (for Thailand) your statement is correct.

Not according to Mr Jones it's not.

Funny how he hasn't attempted to defend himself on this - maybe he can't!!!

The reason I didn't is because I don't rally see the point. But here goes just for you. This will be my last comment, so don't expect me to comment again. GDP is always reported for the previous quarter. So Thailand's GDP fell Q1 and Q2. Two quarters falling GDP is a recession by most definitions. But that recession is a recession for Q1 & Q2. We don't know the figures yet, but suppose GDP grew in July and August, then obviously the country isn't in recession, because teh economy is growing. We won't know whether Thailand is in recession during Q3 until the figures are reported in October.

Also, figures get revised. So there have been cases when an economy was down 0.1 in two quarters running, so a technical recession. But the figure have been revised and one quarter turns out to be 0.1 growth instead of contraction, so it wasn't a recession after all. Even when companies liek Bloomberg report it, they always use phrases like "fell into recession Q2". They never claim they are still in recession because no-one knows. But on the evidence, I think Thailand's GDP will grow this quarter.

You are basing whether it's a recession on not on when the figures are released. That's a nonsense. Just because this quarter's figures haven't been reported, you're assuming the economy is still contract, when there's no evidence of that. The economy is mostly likely now growing,therefore end of short recession.

Even if figures weren't reported at all, you could still have a recession. You are confusing what's actually happening with someone reporting a bunch of figures at a certain date.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Who doesn't know what they are talking about?

The first quarter was -1.7% and the second quarter was -0.3 so that makes 2 quarters in a row of negative growth. The definition of a recession is 2 successive quarters of negative growth. So..............

It doesn't matter whether there is growth in the third quarter or on the year - Thailand is currently in a recession....full stop!!!!!!!

unfortunately (for Thailand) your statement is correct.

Not according to Mr Jones it's not.

Funny how he hasn't attempted to defend himself on this - maybe he can't!!!

The reason I didn't is because I don't rally see the point. But here goes just for you. This will be my last comment, so don't expect me to comment again. GDP is always reported for the previous quarter. So Thailand's GDP fell Q1 and Q2. Two quarters falling GDP is a recession by most definitions. But that recession is a recession for Q1 & Q2. We don't know the figures yet, but suppose GDP grew in July and August, then obviously the country isn't in recession, because teh economy is growing. We won't know whether Thailand is in recession during Q3 until the figures are reported in October.

Also, figures get revised. So there have been cases when an economy was down 0.1 in two quarters running, so a technical recession. But the figure have been revised and one quarter turns out to be 0.1 growth instead of contraction, so it wasn't a recession after all. Even when companies liek Bloomberg report it, they always use phrases like "fell into recession Q2". They never claim they are still in recession because no-one knows. But on the evidence, I think Thailand's GDP will grow this quarter.

You are basing whether it's a recession on not on when the figures are released. That's a nonsense. Just because this quarter's figures haven't been reported, you're assuming the economy is still contract, when there's no evidence of that. The economy is mostly likely now growing,therefore end of short recession.

Even if figures weren't reported at all, you could still have a recession. You are confusing what's actually happening with someone reporting a bunch of figures at a certain date.

Political records will show that Thailand went into recession during the first half of 2013 whether they like it or not!!

If they go into recession, say in the UK, then when they come out of it, it doesn't wipe the recession away does it!!

I don't need to say anymore on the subject - and you are not going to either.

[davejones]

I agree with both your points. As you say, Thailand was in recession first half of this year, but it's now the second half. Records will soon show that it wasn't in recession in second half of year. You seem to be agreeing with me.

Edited August 29, 2013 by davejones

[davejones]

this is why this government does not have any expert working with them. They re all experts on all matters and they always know what to say. and don't worry just be happy

Don't worry, be happy is actually good advice, because most people tend to worry too much. Recessions come and go all the time and most likely always will. It's no big deal. But too many try to make it into a big issue. So what if GDP falls a couple of percent? It's not the end of the world. So don't worry, be happy. Worrying over things that you have no control over is particularly futile. It there's a recession, it will happen whether you worry or whether you're happy, so isn't it better to be happy?

Edited August 29, 2013 by davejones

[SICHONSTEVE]

I agree with both your points. As you say, Thailand was in recession first half of this year, but it's now the second half. Records will soon show that it wasn't in recession in second half of year. You seem to be agreeing with me.

I'm not agreeing with you.

Conjecture doesn't count, especially coming from that (white) lieing idiot Kittirat.

[yoshiwara]

The trend is the problem for Thailand and other EMs. Once the recession has been hit, vulnerability and risk assessment goes up unless one considers that that recession was an aberration.

[davejones]

The trend is the problem for Thailand and other EMs. Once the recession has been hit, vulnerability and risk assessment goes up unless one considers that that recession was an aberration.

I don't think that's relevant. Recessions come and go in all countries. It's just part of the normal business cycle. Often made worse by governments, but they still pass. Doesn't seem like anything to worry about to me.I think it's already over. I'd be very surprised if GDP fell this quarter.

In any case, GDP is a bit of a worthless indicator. If governments borrow large amounts and spend it, GDP will rise, but that's not really a good thing.Also, if GDP rises 1% over a year but the population rises 2%, then everyone s worse off (on average), but it's presented as a good thing. So a bit of a waste of time really. If it wasn't reported, no-one could tell if GDP went up or down in any quarter.

Edited August 29, 2013 by davejones

[yoshiwara]

The trend is the problem for Thailand and other EMs. Once the recession has been hit, vulnerability and risk assessment goes up unless one considers that that recession was an aberration.

I don't think that's relevant. Recessions come and go in all countries. It's just part of the normal business cycle. Often made worse by governments, but they still pass. Doesn't seem like anything to worry about to me.I think it's already over. I'd be very surprised if GDP fell this quarter.

I think you are being a little too sanguine re Thailand, but then all that that difference translates into is where one feels comfortable in either holding, investing, or selling into Thai assets.

I have been wrong to date, looking at the last 10 years and long term looking forward the Japanese auto makers are staying in, so you pays your money and takes yer choice.

[wordchild]

This is a CNN report of an interview with Suranand in which he is trying to make the point that there has been too much focus on the quarter on quarter gdp figures which reflect a slowing economy (after a strong end to last year) rather than a recession. I know some may not want to believe it but the point he is making is ,strictly speaking, correct.http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1024817

Edited September 1, 2013 by wordchild