Syria's Assad says Western strike could trigger regional war

[simple1]

Ban Ki-Mon has stated that Iran has confirmed, in private, it will comply to the conditions for attending the talks.

“Foreign Minister Zarif and I agreed that the goal of the negotiations is to establish by mutual consent a transitional governing body with full executive powers,” he added. “It was on that basis that Foreign Minister Zarif pledged that Iran would play a positive and constructive role in Montreux.”

Observers commenting on the proposed talks say the negotiations are not expected to yield major results, except perhaps to open up certain parts of Syria to the delivery of humanitarian aid, which has been long denied.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/20/world/middleeast/un-invites-iran-to-peace-conference-on-syria-surprising-us-officials.html?hpw&rref=world&_r=0

Without Iran's attendance what progress, if any, can be acheived? Assad has yet to count himself out of the upcoming elections which is a primary condition by the Syrian opposition. For the moment any real progress is doubtful.

[Chicog]

Do you really believe Iran would promote anything that might result in the majority Sunni population taking over Syria?

Somehow I don't think so....

[Chicog]

No real surprise.....

Syria's political opposition says it will withdraw its attendance at international peace talks scheduled this week unless United Nations Chief Ban Ki-moon retracts an invitation to Iran, President Bashar al-Assad's main backer. The western-backed Syrian opposition has said it will only attend peace talks in Geneva this week if Iran's invitation is withdrawn by 1900 GMT, according to Reuters.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-01-20/syria-opposition-issues-ultimatum-over-iran-invitation/

[Asiantravel]

Do you really believe Iran would promote anything that might result in the majority Sunni population taking over Syria?

Somehow I don't think so....

I don't understand because I thought Iran and Syria were allies?

[simple1]

Do you really believe Iran would promote anything that might result in the majority Sunni population taking over Syria?

Somehow I don't think so....

No, nor would Saudi Arabia support Assad staying in power. As you know a very complex scenario, right now cannot see an end game acceptable to all parties to bring about peace. At the very best maybe a ceasefire based upon sectarian/tribal lines that would need to be agreed to by Iran & Saudi Arabia, supported by the US, France and Russia. This would be ignored by the extremists aligned to Al Qaeda - suppose the best outcome for the SFA and others is an uprising similar to the Sunni Awakening in Iraq, but that would require sufficient military supply by the US proxy Saudi Arabia

Edited January 20, 2014 by simple1

[Chicog]

Do you really believe Iran would promote anything that might result in the majority Sunni population taking over Syria?

Somehow I don't think so....

I don't understand because I thought Iran and Syria were allies?

No, Iran and Assad the Alawite are allies. The Alawis are a Shi'a sect and are in the minority in Syria. The Sunni majority of Syria would like to determine their own future, and it's understandable that they are not expecting a fair shake from the Iranian Shi'a.

[Chicog]

Do you really believe Iran would promote anything that might result in the majority Sunni population taking over Syria?

Somehow I don't think so....

No, nor would Saudi Arabia support Assad staying in power. As you know a very complex scenario, right now cannot see an end game acceptable to all parties to bring about peace. At the very best maybe a ceasefire based upon sectarian/tribal lines that would need to be agreed to by Iran & Saudi Arabia, supported by the US, France and Russia. This would be ignored by the extremists aligned to Al Qaeda - suppose the best outcome for the SFA and others is an uprising similar to the Sunni Awakening in Iraq, but that would require sufficient military supply by the US proxy Saudi Arabia

Free and Fair elections would sort it out, but that does not benefit the Alawite minority and their Shi'a and Russian backers. So I can't see either of those backing any solution that results in a free vote.

[Chicog]

Well no surprise that the opposition immediately threatened to withdraw unless Iran unequivocally committed to withdrawing its troops, etc., and Iran proceeded to fudge around with vague promises.

So the invitation to Iran has now been withdrawn.

Honestly, these UN idiots couldn't run a kids birthday party.

[Asiantravel]

Do you really believe Iran would promote anything that might result in the majority Sunni population taking over Syria?

Somehow I don't think so....

I don't understand because I thought Iran and Syria were allies?

No, Iran and Assad the Alawite are allies. The Alawis are a Shi'a sect and are in the minority in Syria. The Sunni majority of Syria would like to determine their own future, and it's understandable that they are not expecting a fair shake from the Iranian Shi'a.

my brain hurts

[Chicog]

OK look at this map. The "Shi'a" you see in Syria are only 20% or so of the population and yet they run the country.

Iran would rather that carried on.

[Steely Dan]

OK look at this map. The "Shi'a" you see in Syria are only 20% or so of the population and yet they run the country.

Iran would rather that carried on.

It looks like a domestic dispute on steroids that the U.S, Russia and Europe would do well to keep out of

[Chicog]

If Russia had stayed out of it, it would probably be over by now.

[Chicog]

Syria pledges to relax Homs siege
January 27, 2014 12:02 AM

GENEVA -- The Syrian government has agreed to allow the first aid convoy in more than a year to enter the besieged old-city quarter of Homs and to permit the evacuation of women and children trapped there, Syria's deputy foreign minister said Sunday.
If the aid convoy and the evacuation take place as planned, it would be the first concrete development from the peace talks in this Swiss city. The United Nations' special envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, who is mediating the talks, said a convoy could go in as soon as today if local agreements can be worked out.
The talks have yet to touch upon the issue of a possible transitional government -- their purpose according to terms laid out when they were first conceived. But the Syrian government was unequivocal that President Bashar Assad's future was assured in the country led by his family since 1970.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/world/2014/01/27/Syria-pledges-to-relax-Homs-siege/stories/201401270081?

[simple1]

Syria pledges to relax Homs siege

January 27, 2014 12:02 AM

GENEVA -- The Syrian government has agreed to allow the first aid convoy in more than a year to enter the besieged old-city quarter of Homs and to permit the evacuation of women and children trapped there, Syria's deputy foreign minister said Sunday.

If the aid convoy and the evacuation take place as planned, it would be the first concrete development from the peace talks in this Swiss city. The United Nations' special envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi, who is mediating the talks, said a convoy could go in as soon as today if local agreements can be worked out.

The talks have yet to touch upon the issue of a possible transitional government -- their purpose according to terms laid out when they were first conceived. But the Syrian government was unequivocal that President Bashar Assad's future was assured in the country led by his family since 1970.

http://www.post-gazette.com/news/world/2014/01/27/Syria-pledges-to-relax-Homs-siege/stories/201401270081?

The rebel forces do not want to give up or compremise over Homs as it is important to their supply chain and I understand the rebel forces have yet to agree with the offer. Of course likely if rebels do not agree, heavy weapons attacks will re-commence with heavy loss of civilian life.

A truly ugly war and it seems at this stage the Syrian government will not be held accountable for the atrocities’ committed by the armed forces. Equally responsible are the Shabiha (armed militia) who work for the regime undertaking ethnic cleansing and killings of civilians that to date is claimed to far outweigh the cruelty committed by radical Islamists.

As predicted there does not appear to be any forward movement to achieving any meaningful outcome to the talks.

[Chicog]

Israel refuses to confirm attack on Syrian missile base

English.news.cn 2014-01-27 19:57:37

JERUSALEM, Jan. 27 (Xinhua) -- Israeli security sources declined to confirm on Monday an alleged Israeli attack of a Syrian military base in Latakia.

According to reports in the Lebanese media, the Israel Air Force bombed overnight Sunday launchers of S-300 missiles in the Latakia port in northern Syrian. Local residents reported that a loud explosion was heard all across the city.

Lebanon's National News Agency reported that on late Sunday night six Israeli military planes intruded the country's airspace, near the capital Beirut, and continued towards Syria.

The Israel Defense Force (IDF) Spokesperson Unit declined to comment for Xinhua, saying "the army never comments on foreign publications."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-01/27/c_133078649.htm?

[F430murci]

BEIRUT Syrian military helicopters dropped more improvised "barrel bombs" on the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday, a monitoring group said, bringing the death toll to at least 83 people in the latest episode of a campaign many consider a war crime.

Most of the victims killed since Friday have been civilians from the city's eastern districts, including women and children, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has a broad network of sources across Syria.

. . .

Western powers proposed a U.N. Security Council resolution in December to express outrage at the use of barrel bombs, which they say indiscriminately target innocent civilians. The weapons have killed well over 700 people in Syria in the past six weeks.

But Russia, a staunch ally of President Bashar al-Assad, has repeatedly blocked such plans in the Security Council.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/02/02/22544469-syrian-forces-kill-over-80-in-barrel-bomb-attacks-in-aleppo-activists-say?lite

Edited February 2, 2014 by F430murci

[simple1]

Latest estimate of deaths is now 136,000+ As usual fighting intensified leading up to the 'peace talks' with the heaviest monthly toll in January, as well as the deliberate destruction of thousands of civilian homes by the Assad dictatorship.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/syria-toll-rises-136-000-bloody-month-ngo-164715973.html#sJZwXGZ

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/30/world/meast/syria-demolitions-report/

As predicted the removal of chemical weapons has become a bit of a farce as "so far, only 4% of "priority one" chemicals declared by Syria had been removed, and roughly the same percentage of "priority two" chemicals.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/30/us-questions-syria-motives-slow-chemical-weapons-handover

Edited February 3, 2014 by simple1

[F430murci]

In a rare moment of cooperation between the Syrian government and rebel forces, aid agencies say hundreds of people were allowed to evacuate over the weekend from a suburb of Damascus where the nearly three-year-old civil war has yielded yet another horror: Hunger so severe that a significant number of people are said to be now starving to death.

The evacuation from Yarmouk Camp, a rebel-held suburb just south of Damascus, comes after 89 people, most of them children and elderly people, have died of malnutrition-related diseases since January 1, according to Jamal Hammad, a spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent. He said his count only includes cases with confirmed death certificates.

Children under the age of one and elderly people over 65 account for 60 percent of the deaths, he said.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/02/03/22526114-people-are-eating-cats-starvation-deaths-plague-syria-camp?lite