Thai opinion: Brace for a new round of confrontation

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
Brace for a new round of confrontation
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- Thailand is once again at a crossroads. The political crisis is escalating over the Phue Thai Party's attempt to bring back former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra under the camouflage of amnesty legislation. The ghost of Thaksin still haunts Thailand. This has heightened tensions and deepened the political division. It could spill over into more confrontation and a bloody clashes.

The Democrats have decided to take it to the streets, forming a grand alliance with anti-government protesters. They know that they will not be able to block the amnesty bill in Parliament because of Pheu Thai's outright majority. The bill is now proceeding through a second reading in Parliament.

A vote is scheduled for Saturday. Suthep Thuagsuban, the secretary-general of the Democrat Party, has led the charge, organising an anti-amnesty bill protest in the Samsen area, which is a stone's throw away from the Democrat Party's headquarters. Ironically, he and former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will benefit from the amnesty bill if it is passed. But the stakes are higher than that. If Thaksin were allowed to come back, he would certainly reclaim his premiership.

Tents and facilities have been installed at the opposition's rally site. The crowd surged to 8,000 by late afternoon yesterday in anticipation of the main protest, which would kick off in the evening. Over the next three days, the rally is expected to attract 50,000 anti-government protesters. Five leading Democrats - Korn Chatikavanij, Thaworn Senneam, Issara Somchai, Siriwan Prassachaksattru and Satit Wongnongtaey - have resigned their positions on the party's executive board, but still keep their MP posts.

The Democrats have coordinated their alliances, including with former People's Alliance for Democracy leaders Chamlong Srimuang, Somkiat Pongpaiboon and Panthep Pourpongpan, and the Green Group's Suriyasai Katasila.

Opposition against the amnesty bill is also growing within the red-shirt movement. The move is being loudly opposed by some activists, academics and lese majeste detainees who are part of the red-shirt camp.

The Peacekeeping Operations Centre has concluded that the anti-amnesty rally at Samsen train station will last a long time, police spokesman Major General Piya Uthayo said on Thursday. That is a fair assessment because the protesters will also be anticipating the International Court of Justice's verdict on the Preah Vihear Temple dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Thailand will at best gain a draw or at worst suffer a loss in this case, while Cambodia will at best enjoy a triumph or at worst a draw. A draw would result if the court decides that it has no jurisdiction to rule on the case any further (following a ruling in 1962), so that both parties should continue to negotiate for settlement on the territorial conflict surrounding the temple. This case also has implications on both countries' territorial rights in the Gulf of Thailand, where oil reserves are abundant.

Both the amnesty bill and the Preah Vihear case are politically explosive. They could make or break the stability of this country and the region. If Pheu Thai insists on bringing Thaksin back via the amnesty bill, the chances of confrontation are high or inevitable. If Thailand were to lose the Preah Vihear case, the chances of a clash with the Cambodias is also high or inevitable. We are moving fast to the point of no return.


-- The Nation 2013-11-01

[Roadman]

The Preah Vihear case will be in favour of Cambodia. That writing has been on the wall for a long time the same as the white washing of the Dubai fugitive criminal. Very interseting times ahead for Thailand. Either violence will erupt or the country will sink under the Shinawatra mafia control and in short time be the same basket case as Cambodia.

[Chicken George]

Sometimes I think the only answer is civil war here in Thailand! Not that I want that ..

[Samaaw]

I'm selling my condo and leaving - anyone want to buy it before the sh1t hits the fan?? lovely area and even has 24 hr security (he is about 80yrs old with a batton) - you will be safe I promise !!

[PhilipCook]

who is paying the daily fees to the demonstrators, who is paying for food and transport?

[h90]

who is paying the daily fees to the demonstrators, who is paying for food and transport?

It is mostly the middle class. So no fees.

[samtam]

Why don't they just let him come back? Really, he's not interested in coming back, as he can run everything remotely. All he wants is his face and his THB46b. It's all about the THB46b.

[indyuk]

who is paying the daily fees to the demonstrators, who is paying for food and transport?

Exactly; if the Thai government wants to civilise protests in Thailand the government must take out the paymasters.

Next Thailand needs to introduce a licensing system for public protests that fix the site of the gathering, the limits of duration and public disturbance.

Many western nations have regulation like this. Singapore has introduced such regulations and have not had any serious problems with public demonstrations since

The fact is the Thai people need to be shown that behaving like a vengeful Nazis and reducing politics to the violence of hooligans in not civilised or acceptable.

Edited November 1, 2013 by indyuk

[Frank James]

The Nation, fanning the flames, as usual.

[JoeThePoster]

As it's the ammarts protesting, it's gonna be a case of shit hitting the aircon.

[billd766]

who is paying the daily fees to the demonstrators, who is paying for food and transport?

Exactly; if the Thai government wants to civilise protests in Thailand the government must take out the paymasters.

Next Thailand needs to introduce a licensing system for public protests that fix the site of the gathering, the limits of duration and public disturbance.

Many western nations have regulation like this. Singapore has introduced such regulations and have not had any serious problems with public demonstrations since

The fact is the Thai people need to be shown that behaving like a vengeful Nazis and reducing politics to the violence of hooligans in not civilised or acceptable.

Tell that to the PTP. UDD and the Red Shirts then.

They seem to have a history along those lines of doing what THEY want, not what is desperately needed for ALL the Thais in the country.

[rubl]

Absolutely right! Let the protesters pay for it themselves.

Mind you most of the anti-government protesters at SamSen are middle class it may seem. They can afford it. Of course the red-shirts upcountry will have a bit more problem to come here if the free transportation is no longer provided, neither the free food and drink, 500B/d.

who is paying the daily fees to the demonstrators, who is paying for food and transport?

Exactly; if the Thai government wants to civilise protests in Thailand the government must take out the paymasters.

Next Thailand needs to introduce a licensing system for public protests that fix the site of the gathering, the limits of duration and public disturbance.

Many western nations have regulation like this. Singapore has introduced such regulations and have not had any serious problems with public demonstrations since

The fact is the Thai people need to be shown that behaving like a vengeful Nazis and reducing politics to the violence of hooligans in not civilised or acceptable.

Edited November 1, 2013 by rubl

[huahinjoe]

Many countries would be very jealous of the opportunities of Thailand regarding Tourism, Investment, Eco stuff and renewables, but seems like the country still living in feudal times. It will take a few decades to solve this issues i guess, if this mentality continues...

[LuckyLew]

Sah Daeng 2.0

[AleG]

This bill didn't work so well to bring reconciliation, did it?

I'm shocked.

[Benmart]

Sometimes I think the only answer is civil war here in Thailand! Not that I want that ..

War wears an ugly face.

[Benmart]

The Nation, fanning the flames, as usual.

And the flames will consume the guilty and the innocent as well. No good ever came from inflammatory journalism, except increased readership revenues.

[rubl]

This bill didn't work so well to bring reconciliation, did it?

I'm shocked.

In the words of our dear, ever smiling PM "please give it some time"

[noitom]

Thais are always bracing. Then comes the assuring, then the crackdowns. They are always promising and planning. After a crackdown comes the five point scheming.

[icare999]

The Preah Vihear case will be in favour of Cambodia. That writing has been on the wall for a long time the same as the white washing of the Dubai fugitive criminal. Very interseting times ahead for Thailand. Either violence will erupt or the country will sink under the Shinawatra mafia control and in short time be the same basket case as Cambodia.

+1 but it will take time. If you study rise of other dictators such as Mugabwie, Saddam, Idi Amin, hitler and the rest it will be a slow steady path to same result or something or someone will put this megalomaniac away for good. Sensible and careful people will make plans in case others will as usual in history leave it to late and continue to hope for the best while things inch by inch get worse and worse. This is simply the beginning of a crossroad and no one knows which way it will go. I still hope for a better outcome but prepare for the worst. The day Taksin returns is the day i will have to start putting those plans into action but I think ive got 5-10 years before he is able to take total control.

[icare999]

The Nation, fanning the flames, as usual.

wait and see who is right. If Taksin is not stopped you will see another mugabwie or gaddafi. Hopefully a Gaddafi or saddam since they did not totally ruin their countries.

[MAJIC]

The Nation, fanning the flames, as usual.

wait and see who is right. If Taksin is not stopped you will see another mugabwie or gaddafi. Hopefully a Gaddafi or saddam since they did not totally ruin their countries.

You sure about that?

[Roadman]

I think Thaksin's fortunes will be decided on the longevity of One his senior. The only mitigation from total loss in that beholden time so that a partnership mass can come out of the Isaan middle and poor classes with basic ethics including from the Reds, many who have a genuine bitch. A social conscience needs to come from within Isaan to not only overthrow this government, but eventually with time the whole rotten corrupt system. Until then the sameness of Cambodia and the future Thaksin Thailand is that the Isaan poor like their Cambodian counterparts will be still Wai ing to an overlord. And the pretty doll can keep on singing "democracy".