Political protests to take a toll on Thailand's GDP growth: UTCC

[webfact]

Political protests to take a toll on GDP growth: UTCC
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The Thai economy could expand only 3.3-3.4 per cent, short of the forecast of 3.5 per cent, if the political tensions smoulder till the end of the year, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said.

"The government needs to solve the problem soon, as the political conflict is a key factor in destroying consumer confidence, tourism growth and investment. And it would hit the economy severely," Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the university's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said yesterday.

Consumer confidence in October plunged to its lowest level in 19 months, amid concern over demonstrations against the blanket amnesty bill.

The Consumer Confidence Index has drifted down for the seventh month from 77.9 points in September to 76.6 last month. Other confidence indices and spending power also fell to their lowest in almost two years.

The expected drag on economic growth would come mainly from the fall of 5-10 per cent of foreign visitors and the loss of Bt10 billion-Bt20 billion from their spending.

The economy next year would expand only 4.8-5 per cent instead of 5.1 per cent.

Based on 1,200 survey responses, if the demonstration is prolonged to the end of this year, and some serious conflict arises, the economy would expand by only 3-3.2 per cent this year, or Bt30 billion to Bt60 billion less than it should have, as arrivals would drop 10-20 per cent.

Economic growth next year would be only 4.8-5 per cent.

In the worst-case scenario, growth could go down to 3-3.2 per cent this year and recover to only 4.5-4.7 per cent next year, if the political mess extends into next year.

The ball is now in the government's court. It could do its best to calm down the situation if it was still worried about the economy.

"The lower confidence and the current chaos were caused by an unnecessary event. The government needs to fix the situation as quickly as possible. Confidence has dropped to nearly the lowest point of the political turmoil in 2010," he said.

Saowanee Thairungroj, president of the university, said the poll suggests that the government should withdraw the amnesty bill as the best solution to end the current political strife.

Other possibilities are to amend the draft bill, create a better understanding of the proposed act, conduct a public survey before passing the bill and focus more on economic growth.

Almost 70 per cent of the respondents believe the political confrontations would end if the government kills the bill. About 20 per cent said the protests would disperse if the government revised some details, and almost 10 per cent said the demonstrations would disappear if the government dissolved Parliament.

A survey that had 2,241 responses showed that the lower confidence has led consumers to tighten their purse strings, delaying new investments.

The index for new SME investment has dropped to the lowest in 88 months from 75.5 in September to 72.6 last month.

Any score below the 100 benchmark indicates negative confidence.

The confidence sub-indices for travelling and purchasing a new home also fell to their lowest in 23 months, while purchasing a new car dropped to the lowest in eight months.

The survey by the centre found the index on the political situation sank to the lowest in 29 months at 61.5 points in October, reflecting the very poor outlook that people have for the current situation.


-- The Nation 2013-11-08

[noitom]

Survey surveys. Thais have to face the reality that the global economy is downsizing. Thais need to realize that their export, black markets, sex trade, and tourism based economy has natural limitations not even factoring in the global slowdowns and downsizing. Thais need to wake up and start focusing on real issues instead of blaming political protesters and democratic expression.

[Thai at Heart]

It's the 8th of November. Last month's statistics were swayed by v this months protests?

[ikke]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

[tingtongteesood]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

Except the Red Shirt rioters backed by your beloved corrupt ex leader criminal fugitive on the run puppet master who closed down the shopping district for 6 weeks resulting in losses supposedly of more than 100 million baht each and every day, not to mention the money he and his cronies and his current puppet government have, are and will steal from the country until they are gone....

[bigbamboo]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

And yet under Abhisit's leadership Finance Minister Korn was highly regarded worldwide and voted Asian and World Banker of the Year during the aftermath of the 2007/8 economic crisis by the Financial Times.

But I guess you know better....

[Baerboxer]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

And yet under Abhisit's leadership Finance Minister Korn was highly regarded worldwide and voted Asian and World Banker of the Year during the aftermath of the 2007/8 economic crisis by the Financial Times.

But I guess you know better....

He clearly demonstrates his in depth knowledge of Thai economic performance over the last few years, the underlying factors and issues, and the extensive research he has carried out into the political systems by which PMs of Thailand are elected.

Of course the populist PTP policies and amounts stolen out of the coffers by the current regime have nothing to do with the current problems. All Abhisit's fault.

He knows its true - PTP told him, and they never lie, do they ?

[DLock]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

Learn some facts Newbie.

Then come back and try again.

[SICHONSTEVE]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

A tad feeble methinks!!!

Is that the best you can do?

By the way, Abhisit had nothing to do with the airport closures as that was the Peoples alliance for Democracy.

He WAS voted in - by parliamentarians after (yet another) of Thaksin's corrupt gangs had bought their way into government.only to be kicked out by the people or through their ignorance of the law leaving them open to disbandment.

[ratcatcher]

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.

You really need to update your personal information database.

[Thai at Heart]

"The Thai economy could expand only 3.3-3.4 per cent, short of the forecast of 3.5 per cent"

The protests are worth 0.1%. Ooooh, whoops. Hardly worth worrying about. By the way, what was the forecast at the start of 2013 and how many times has it been revised downwards to this target of 3.5%?

I say protest on, if the effect is apparently so insignificant. In fact, 1 day of flooding is worth infinitely more, so who gives a hoot about the protests?

[h90]

Survey surveys. Thais have to face the reality that the global economy is downsizing. Thais need to realize that their export, black markets, sex trade, and tourism based economy has natural limitations not even factoring in the global slowdowns and downsizing. Thais need to wake up and start focusing on real issues instead of blaming political protesters and democratic expression.

The biggest is food and car exports, tourism is just a small fraction.....

[rubl]

minor correction here.

Thaksin manages to tear the economy down again.

BTW his wonderful 'rice price pledging' plan which in Sept. 2012 he said should continue for a few more years, seems to have cost THB 360++ billion. Now that's tearing down an economy.

mijzelf

Abhisit manage it for the second time i a few years to tear economics down, most people seems to be forgotten the airport closure by the same man after which he became PM without any election.

Nobody did as bad as Abhisit for Thai and the economics in Thailand.