Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style Crash

[CMfoodie]

Extensive article in Forbes:

Thailand is part of the overall emerging markets bubble that I have been warning about in recent years, along with Indonesia, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries.

The emerging markets bubble started in 2009, when China launched a bold stimulus-driven economic growth strategy to counter the deleterious effects of the global financial crisis on its economy. China immediately scrambled to construct scores of new cities (many of which are still empty) and ambitious infrastructure projects for the sake of generating economic growth, which sparked a global raw materials boom that benefited commodities exporters such as emerging market nations and Australia. Global investors soon began to pile into emerging market investments to diversify away from ailing Western nations in wake of the financial crisis.

MORE: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/04/thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

[haybilly]

Oh, but, the Thais learn't there lesson last time-- or so 'some' would have us believe.

[FiftyTwo]

I think so, but I may be wrong.

[muchogra]

I'm not sure there's gonna be a crash in the near future, but I'm sure things everywhere will be getting more expensive at a much faster ratethan before. And that's irreversible! This has already been being ensured by the present economic czarsand the politicians grasping for power maquerading as saviors of the people.

Sure, standard of living can be increased, but what about the happiness index? Isn't happiness is what's most importnt in life? What about the cost for necessities? Sure, the wants would be getting cheaper when measured against the earnings.

Thailand has done a great job up to perhaps a few years ago in keeping necessities under control as compared to, say S. Korea, where about 35 years ago, necessities were as cheap or cheaper than Thailand. Look at S. Korea today! I reckon the wants have gotten cheaper relative to the earnings, but how about the necessities and happiness? I don't think many would tell me happines is not important in life and that people in general, say America or England, are happier now than a few decades ago.

[Thailand]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/679467-thailands-bubble-economy-is-heading-for-a-1997-style-crash/

[qdinthailand]

Shouldn't there be a discussion about how global warming is going to serious disrupt the entire world as we know it - making talk about economic bubbles busting (maybe or not) seem trivial to climate catastrophes?

I know, not an immediate threat yet, so why talk about stuff way off in the future.

[Sparkles]

Household debt in Thailand is up 45% over the last 5 years according to my Bank Manager.Thais just can't stop buying new houses, cars ,smart phones and whatever else is in fashion.

He fears a major crisis is looming over the horizon and that the current growth of CM, especially, is not sustainable.I guess only time will tell. For those who were here in 97 it wasn't a pretty sight.

[maprao]

If the pounds goes above 90 again .....wow roll on

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Ticketmaster]

Shouldn't there be a discussion about how global warming is going to serious disrupt the entire world as we know it - making talk about economic bubbles busting (maybe or not) seem trivial to climate catastrophes?

I know, not an immediate threat yet, so why talk about stuff way off in the future.

Global warming is a proven myth.

[qdinthailand]

Shouldn't there be a discussion about how global warming is going to serious disrupt the entire world as we know it - making talk about economic bubbles busting (maybe or not) seem trivial to climate catastrophes?

I know, not an immediate threat yet, so why talk about stuff way off in the future.

Global warming is a proven myth.

No, simply denied. And essentially, the denial is more about the cause (natural, vs. man-made).

I'd put my money on the scientists (98% who say global warming is happening) and not on the fossil-fuel industry and its investors, religious charlatans leaders, conservative politicians and generally illiterate humans that can barely read a newspaper, never mind scientific literature.

After all, climate change is a slow, long-term changing pattern of weather conditions, as opposed to weather, which is what's going on outside right now. What's going on now in no way proves or disproves anything about climate change.

Now, this thread was not about global warming, but instead a warning about the Thai economic situation. But again, I find that discussing short-term economic issues, while ignoring the longer-term significance of global warming, to be laughable. Like many, I'll be dead before the worst happens, so what do I care.

"Screw the children, <deleted> 'em if they can't take a joke!"

[Ticketmaster]

Sorry about the myth remark. I know it isn't a myth. I confess to trolling. I take it back.

Edit: But thanks to the OP for that great Forbes article. It pulls the state of affairs here together quite nicely. I have shared the article with several friends. I have been watching this bubble inflate. Hard to say when it will pop, but if the powers that be don't pull back soon, the pop is inevitable.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Ticketmaster

[lomatopo]

Author's (of the OP linked article) self-penned bio...

I am an economic analyst and anti-economic bubble activist who was recognized by the London Times for predicting the Global Financial Crisis. I am currently warning about growing bubbles in Canada, Australia, Nordic countries, China, emerging markets, Web 2.0 startups, U.S. higher education, and more.

"and more"?

Seems like this knuckle-head would have been able to profit from all his predictive capabilities, make a fortune and retire, rather than stay on as a "anti-economic bubble activist"? He probably predicted the Dutch Tulip Bubble too.

[phitsanulokjohn]

Did someone mention a 97 style crash?Please bring it on,just over 100 to the pound again.Now wouldn't that be lovely.

[muchogra]

"...Like many, I'll be dead before the worst happens, so what do I care."

Surely, you are referring to global warming?

Bubble bursting is real in our life time. It almost bankrupted me in 97. Then, I felt comfortable on what we had. I never bothered with the 8-figure Thai stock porfolio while I was engaging myself in a job. You know what happended to the stock market then. With that lesson learned, I'm now more vigilante. I sure don't want that to happen again now that I have grown older.

Edited November 9, 2013 by muchogra

[infinity11]

"...Like many, I'll be dead before the worst happens, so what do I care."

Surely, you are referring to global warming?

Bubble bursting is real in our life time. It almost bankrupted me in 97. Then, I felt comfortable on what we had. I never bothered with the 8-figure Thai stock porfolio while I was engaging myself in a job. You know what happended to the stock market then. With that lesson learned, I'm now more vigilante. I sure don't want that to happen again now that I have grown older.

I am curious how you and others lost out and if avoiding those measures will save you/us next time.

You lost big time in the SET? You were in debt big time? thanks for posting

[chiang mai]

Household debt in Thailand is up 45% over the last 5 years according to my Bank Manager.Thais just can't stop buying new houses, cars ,smart phones and whatever else is in fashion.

He fears a major crisis is looming over the horizon and that the current growth of CM, especially, is not sustainable.I guess only time will tell. For those who were here in 97 it wasn't a pretty sight.

I was here during '97 for about 50% of my time although Hong Kong was my full time home then, it was a great buyers market although it wasn't pleasant for many Thai's who had over extended and got caught out by the crash. But recovery came soon enough and the fundamentals of the country sent it into safe territory quickly enough, I'm unconcerned by the current boomlet.

Edited November 9, 2013 by chiang mai

[FiftyTwo]

I was here during '97 for about 50% of my time although Hong Kong was my full time home then, it was a great buyers market although it wasn't pleasant for many Thai's who had over extended and got caught out by the crash. But recovery came soon enough and the fundamentals of the country sent it into safe territory quickly enough, I'm unconcerned by the current boomlet.

Guess they didn't have Thaksin and Co. looting the country then.

Rice scam, car tax scam, infrastructure loan scam, not to mention approaching coup.

Not to mention the ease of credit at the moment, you can get a 2Mbht home loan on 6 months of forged pay slips, the banks don't even check.

Edited November 9, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[muchogra]

I think many Thais are reckless spenders without a bit of remorse or shame when they defraud. The problem is they are breeding more! Face and integrity are nonissues when it comes down to money!

[muchogra]

"...Like many, I'll be dead before the worst happens, so what do I care."

Surely, you are referring to global warming?

Bubble bursting is real in our life time. It almost bankrupted me in 97. Then, I felt comfortable on what we had. I never bothered with the 8-figure Thai stock porfolio while I was engaging myself in a job. You know what happended to the stock market then. With that lesson learned, I'm now more vigilante. I sure don't want that to happen again now that I have grown older.

I am curious how you and others lost out and if avoiding those measures will save you/us next time.

You lost big time in the SET? You were in debt big time? thanks for posting

I was comfortable, and I did not safeguard myself. What I had in the SET then was liquid money I had.

When I lost it, it wasn't so comfortable afterall. Was it?

[i claudius]

Thailand ,the hub of bubbles

[PeterSmiles]

Did someone mention a 97 style crash?Please bring it on,just over 100 to the pound again.Now wouldn't that be lovely.

It never has been 100 to the pound.

[Naam]

Did someone mention a 97 style crash?Please bring it on,just over 100 to the pound again.Now wouldn't that be lovely.

It never has been 100 to the pound.

in january 1998 i was standing next to a British gentleman at a money changer who got 93.45 Baht for one Pound and i got 55.35 Baht for one U.S. Dollar. his comment was "changing only 100 Pounds now, hopefully 100 Baht next week."

he was wrong but both of us were quite happy with the rates we got.

[Naam]

"...Like many, I'll be dead before the worst happens, so what do I care."

Surely, you are referring to global warming?

Bubble bursting is real in our life time. It almost bankrupted me in 97. Then, I felt comfortable on what we had. I never bothered with the 8-figure Thai stock porfolio while I was engaging myself in a job. You know what happended to the stock market then. With that lesson learned, I'm now more vigilante. I sure don't want that to happen again now that I have grown older.

I am curious how you and others lost out and if avoiding those measures will save you/us next time.

You lost big time in the SET? You were in debt big time? thanks for posting

losing big from 1994 till 1998 in the SET was as easy as taking candy from a toddler. take a look at the graph:

[willyumiii]

Shouldn't there be a discussion about how global warming is going to serious disrupt the entire world as we know it - making talk about economic bubbles busting (maybe or not) seem trivial to climate catastrophes?

I know, not an immediate threat yet, so why talk about stuff way off in the future.

Global warming is a proven myth.

Have you noticed the Typhoon bearing down on us next week?

Being called "possibly the largest Typhoon in world history".

Now, Tell me again that significant climate change is a myth.

Global Warming is a poor description of what is happening, created by irresponsible media.

It is a significant climate change.

Caused by concern for big profits and not for the damage done to the environment to obtain those big profits.

And yes, I understand, protecting the world we live in is not good for profits..

Edited November 10, 2013 by willyumiii

[i claudius]

The world has always heated up and cooled since the begining of time ,man made global warming is a myth foisted on us by scientists who want to protect their funding and politicians who want to tax us.

[wprime]

I'm not sure there's gonna be a crash in the near future, but I'm sure things everywhere will be getting more expensive at a much faster ratethan before. And that's irreversible! This has already been being ensured by the present economic czarsand the politicians grasping for power maquerading as saviors of the people.

Sure, standard of living can be increased, but what about the happiness index? Isn't happiness is what's most importnt in life? What about the cost for necessities? Sure, the wants would be getting cheaper when measured against the earnings.

Thailand has done a great job up to perhaps a few years ago in keeping necessities under control as compared to, say S. Korea, where about 35 years ago, necessities were as cheap or cheaper than Thailand. Look at S. Korea today! I reckon the wants have gotten cheaper relative to the earnings, but how about the necessities and happiness? I don't think many would tell me happines is not important in life and that people in general, say America or England, are happier now than a few decades ago.

A market crash (or even measures to prevent one) will reduce the cost of locally produced goods. Nevertheless they will become less affordable anyway because wages will either need to drop or Thailand will be faced with rising unemployment.

[Sealbash]

Household debt in Thailand is up 45% over the last 5 years according to my Bank Manager.Thais just can't stop buying new houses, cars ,smart phones and whatever else is in fashion.

He fears a major crisis is looming over the horizon and that the current growth of CM, especially, is not sustainable.I guess only time will tell. For those who were here in 97 it wasn't a pretty sight. 

Why was it not pretty?

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[i claudius]

May not have been pretty ,but it was very very good for us with money abroad. it was like everything became half price.

sent by my megaphone with string app.

Edited November 10, 2013 by i claudius

[midas]

" the bubbles developing in Asia, arguably much larger in size not just in stocks but across all asset markets, have been largely ignored. Today’s post will focus on three red flags "

http://asiaconf.com/2013/11/09/3-signs-of-bloodbath-ahead/

Edited November 10, 2013 by midas

[chiang mai]

Oh deary me, next we'll be hearing from Zerohendge on the subject, at least that might be a small step up!