Senate fails to kill Thai amnesty bill

[ridkun]

So assuming the senate on Monday votes down the bill before it .

Then the house can revote on it after 180 days.

However PT and the parasite parties have promised to drop this bill and not to revisit it after 180 days.

BUT, is there anything to stop them introducing another (No 8) amnesty bill after they think thing have calmed down enough ?

Yes. The rule states they cannot propose a similar bill also during the 180 days. If the Senate merely votes no and sends the bill back, it sits in Limbo and in 180 days the Lower House alone (with 50% +1 votes) can exonerate Dr. Thaksin and themselves and it will be fait acompli (cannot be undone). Dr. Thaksin could be back in Thailand by next May applying to the courts to unfreeze and return the money they took from him, become a 'party list' MP, and then be voted in as PM by June. The Senate must CHANGE the bill for the 180 day rule to not be applicable. If the Senate votes for the bill now, it means the want Dr. Thaksin to return now, If they vote to return the bill 'as is', it means they want Dr. Thaksin to return in six months. If they modify the bill so that leaders and politicians are exempt, then it means they truly don't want Dr. Thaksin to return and then the onus is on the Lower House to prove the whole 'amnesty' plan is not a scheme, to return the former PM, and pass and honest amnesty bill. My money is on the Senate having Dr. T return in 180 days so they can plead innocent.

Although Thaksin would seem to be the main aim of this amnesty it's Abhisit and Suthep who are the ones who are key to this.

Many don't want to see Thaksin come back whitewashed but not enough to stop the amnesty. What has tipped the balance in my view is the inclusion of Abhisit and Suthep because even many red shirts and government supporters don't want them to get an amnesty and aren't willing to give up that view for Thaksin's benefit. If the Dems had agreed to support the amnesty for Thaksin in exchange for including Thaksin then it would probably have gone through.

So long as a way can't be found to include Thaksin and the red shirts but not Abhisit and Suthep then this will always be difficult to get through.

I think Thaksin had convinced that what Abhisit and Suthep has been doing was just a political drama, and they would keep it as a drama and would not take any real action against the bill if they got amnesty too. He just thought that he could control anyone by offering benefit. After all, Thaksin's just too naive in politics. He's been always making big mistake politically, starting by appointing Sonthi as the army's chief. Red shirt that he formed has failed to remove Abhisit from the office, and now the red shirt themselves got in his way to complete amnesty. The bad thing is that he also drags the whole country down with him in the process...

[kimamey]

So assuming the senate on Monday votes down the bill before it .

Then the house can revote on it after 180 days.

However PT and the parasite parties have promised to drop this bill and not to revisit it after 180 days.

BUT, is there anything to stop them introducing another (No 8) amnesty bill after they think thing have calmed down enough ?

Yes. The rule states they cannot propose a similar bill also during the 180 days. If the Senate merely votes no and sends the bill back, it sits in Limbo and in 180 days the Lower House alone (with 50% +1 votes) can exonerate Dr. Thaksin and themselves and it will be fait acompli (cannot be undone). Dr. Thaksin could be back in Thailand by next May applying to the courts to unfreeze and return the money they took from him, become a 'party list' MP, and then be voted in as PM by June. The Senate must CHANGE the bill for the 180 day rule to not be applicable. If the Senate votes for the bill now, it means the want Dr. Thaksin to return now, If they vote to return the bill 'as is', it means they want Dr. Thaksin to return in six months. If they modify the bill so that leaders and politicians are exempt, then it means they truly don't want Dr. Thaksin to return and then the onus is on the Lower House to prove the whole 'amnesty' plan is not a scheme, to return the former PM, and pass and honest amnesty bill. My money is on the Senate having Dr. T return in 180 days so they can plead innocent.

Although Thaksin would seem to be the main aim of this amnesty it's Abhisit and Suthep who are the ones who are key to this.

Many don't want to see Thaksin come back whitewashed but not enough to stop the amnesty. What has tipped the balance in my view is the inclusion of Abhisit and Suthep because even many red shirts and government supporters don't want them to get an amnesty and aren't willing to give up that view for Thaksin's benefit. If the Dems had agreed to support the amnesty for Thaksin in exchange for including Thaksin then it would probably have gone through.

So long as a way can't be found to include Thaksin and the red shirts but not Abhisit and Suthep then this will always be difficult to get through.

For Abhisit and Suthep to accept the amnesty they would have to accept the character assassination claim that they are murderers. Why would they do that when the charge is based on a ridiculous assumption that they acted as individuals and not as office holders, and which has no chance of succeeding in court.

Absolutely. They ruined everything by taking a stand and not accepting the easy option of an amnesty. I assume they're hoping that if it ever gets to court, which is by no means certain then the trial will be a fair one.