Pray tell me why Thai Baht is moving south ?

[thairookie]

Does the depreciation of the Thai baht against most currencies, especially USD, anything to do with the ongoing protest ?

It has broken the 32 barrier. Does anyone think it will break the 33 barrier ?

[justcruisin]

Of course it is the reason.

Leave money in a banana republic government when the peasants are getting restless?

[seasia]

This article might be of interest to you :

"Thailand unexpectedly cut its key interest rate for a second time this year, as escalating anti-government protests threaten investor confidence and local demand, hurting the nation’s growth outlook. The baht fell "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/thailand-unexpectedly-cuts-rate-as-protests-crimp-growth-outlook.html

[Thai at Heart]

They just cut interest rates today also.

Quite why, who knows.

[scubascuba3]

The currency has been weakening noticeably the last few days, potential riots must be impacting it

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[AyG]

It's not just the protests. It's also the government's dodgy economic policies. The rice pledging scheme is a disaster - something that the outside world is increasingly catching on to. (Consider the recent IMF report's calling for Thailand to abandon the scheme - and also the Thai government's out of hand rejection of its recommendations.)

[kblaze]

Official Statement;

The global economy continued to recover, led by expansion in the major economies,

particularly theUS.High uncertainty in the outlook formonetary and fiscal policiesin theUS

continuesto weigh on global financial marketstability. The Chinese economy expanded well

across allsectors, while the regional economies continued to grow gradually. Exports of the

North Asian economiesrecovered in tandem with the major and Chinese economies, and at

amore robust pace than those of ASEANpeers.

Growth of the Thai economy in the third quarter of 2013 was weakerthan expected

from both private and public spending. Recovery in exports has not gained traction. Looking

ahead, there are higher downside risks to growth stemming from delay in government

investment and fragile private confidence, which could be compounded by ongoing political

situation. In addition, exports might not benefit fully from prospective global economic

recovery. Inflationary pressure remains subdued, while private credits decelerated in line

with the economy.

The committee judges that the Thai economy is expanding at a lower pace than

previously assessed, with greater downside risks compared with the last meeting. Given

benign inflation outlook and moderating household credit growth, there is room for

monetary policy to mitigate downside risks to the economy. The MPC thus voted 6 to 1 to

reduce the policy rate by 0.25 percent, from 2.50 to 2.25 percent per annum, with

immediate effect. One member deemed current monetary policy stance to be sufficiently

accommodative, and therefore voted tomaintain the policy rate at 2.50 percent per annum.

[tim armstrong]

The Thai economy has always been a bit murky, particularly around rice pledging and mega-infrastructure projects. It maybe that some lenders are getting nervous, but I think it's more likely that some of the money market vultures are using the unrest to create an opportunity for some short term gains. They don't make money out of a stable currency - which the baht has been to date.

[Berkshire]

Of course it is the reason.

Leave money in a banana republic government when the peasants are getting restless?

Geez, I hope you're not giving out financial advice because you have no idea what you're talking about. The baht has been weakening for months and it has nothing to do with the current protest.

[notmyself]

Of course it is the reason.

Leave money in a banana republic government when the peasants are getting restless?

Geez, I hope you're not giving out financial advice because you have no idea what you're talking about. The baht has been weakening for months and it has nothing to do with the current protest.

Around 18% against the GBP since early June. Edited November 28, 2013 by notmyself

[MAJIC]

Of course it is the reason.

Leave money in a banana republic government when the peasants are getting restless?

"Of course it is the reason"

Normally Political unrest would be a sure reason,for a currency collapse,however, passed events when a collapse would be inevetible,in most countries, Thailand has in the past come through unblemished, Just consider the Coup,and 2010,unless someone can prove me wrong with graphs I didn't see much movement or any collapse of the Baht from those two eras,

Thailand has led a charmed financial life since the 1997 Crash.

Its only speculation,but just maybe,their Finances are in a worst state than anyone has declared.

[GinBoy2]

I'm holding out for 33 to the $. Hasn't been this good in years, so 0% interest on $ vs Political unrest has its upside

[BillyBobThai]

42 42 42 42 42 42

[Nana Cowboy]

the baht is coming off rock bottom of 28. I never look a gift horse in the mouth. never have all your cash in one

currency or another. resistance is 36 then expect a pullback. 40 is very doubtful

[smokie36]

Please let it hit 60 to the pound by next weekend!

[notmyself]

Please let it hit 60 to the pound by next weekend!

Back again Smokie?

[PeterSmiles]

42 42 42 42 42 42

I prefer 69 .

[PeterSmiles]

Please let it hit 60 to the pound by next weekend!

Back again Smokie?

Has Smokie been on holiday ?

Duck hunting maybe ?

Edited November 29, 2013 by PeterSmiles

[i claudius]

It's not just the protests. It's also the government's dodgy economic policies. The rice pledging scheme is a disaster - something that the outside world is increasingly catching on to. (Consider the recent IMF report's calling for Thailand to abandon the scheme - and also the Thai government's out of hand rejection of its recommendations.)

If they did ,the rice farmers would be down there protesting as well.

[smokie36]

Please let it hit 60 to the pound by next weekend!

Back again Smokie?

Has Smokie been on holiday ?

Duck hunting maybe ?

Yes the season is nearly over again....gun away and flip flops back on shortly!

[Prbkk]

33 or thereabouts would be good for the economy, without exposing too much inflationary pressure. Good for exports, good for tourism. Anything much weaker, medium term: too much risk of inflation spike

[fish fingers]

watching the sterling baht rate daily - I wd think if there is no major situation before the King's birthday the baht will rebound midweek, but as most Thai's are saying the protests will get even bigger afterwards, it will probably slide against Sterling again

How this affects the property market is of interest to me

[Prbkk]

There is no fundamental or compelling reason for a rebound in the Baht. There could be a one-off bounce in the event the prtests end, one way or another. However, given the way the SET rebounded when it looked likely that the govt would survive, it looks to me that the markets favour no change in govt . The decision to lower interest rates, the likelihood of more international money leaving Thailand, pressure on tourism, bubble in property, weakish exports....to me these point to a flat or weaker baht . While this is not yet a 1997 situation, why would the Baht appreciate? More on the downside, IMHO

watching the sterling baht rate daily - I wd think if there is no major situation before the King's birthday the baht will rebound midweek, but as most Thai's are saying the protests will get even bigger afterwards, it will probably slide against Sterling again

How this affects the property market is of interest to me