Top brass now hold all the cards: Thai opinion

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
Top brass now hold all the cards
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- As this column went to press, military top brass had yet to deliver their response to Suthep Thaugsuban's proposal. Suthep announced on Wednesday evening that he would give the military until 8pm yesterday to answer his request that they cross over to support the protesters' campaign for reform. Only then would he make a decision on how to move forward.

The military is kingmaker at this critical juncture. So far Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has kept his cards close to his chest. Most other top brass are waiting for his signal. Suthep has been able to mobilise millions of Thais in protests demanding the removal of the Yingluck government and the Thaksin regime that backs it, so that the country can start a reform process. But Suthep has yet to win the backing of the government machinery - the bureaucrats, police and military - for the people's revolution.

Yingluck yielded to the pressure by dissolving Parliament on Monday when millions of Thais staged a peaceful rally for her ousting. But for protesters that is still not enough - Yingluck still serves as caretaker PM and her Cabinet remains intact. They all answer to one man, Thaksin Shinawatra, who still calls the shots in Thai politics by remote control.

Suthep has been trying to woo support from the military, but to no avail. What he wants is the military top brass to send a message for Yingluck and her Cabinet to resign their caretaker status. This would pave the way for the appointment of a new prime minister and an interim government, followed by creation of a "people's council" entrusted with drafting a new Constitution and laying down the groundwork for reform. Underlying all this is an effort to rid Thailand off money politics and restore genuine democracy.

By keeping its position ambiguous, the military automatically sides with the Yingluck government. At this point, there is no neutral ground - either you back the people's aspiration for reform or you support the status quo of money politics. And it is obvious that money politics, plagued by corruption and concentration of power in one family, is bankrupting the country in a hurry.

Thailand is at a crossroads. One road leads to the empowerment of the people and reform, the other to maintaining the status quo. After dissolving Parliament, the Yingluck government has gone into election mode. February 2 has been thrown up as a possible date for the new election. But Suthep and the protesters argue that an election will do nothing to tackle Thailand's fundamental problems. Let's freeze political business for a while and allow the country to go through an overhaul, they say, then we can have a fresh election when things are ready. But for Yingluck's supporters the government has retreated far enough. Let's decide the future of the country via the ballot box, they counter.

The reality is that the military still holds enormous clout in politics. If the military is to support people's power and the call for reform, it should make its position clear and side with Suthep and the protesters. Then Yingluck and her Cabinet would be asked to step down from their caretaker-government status. But if the military chooses to keep neutral and ignore the national crisis, we can surmise it is siding with the Yingluck government. If the latter is the case, Suthep and the protesters will have no choice but to organise another, larger rally. That would heighten the chance of violence. And the situation could get out of hand.

We have reached an either/or predicament. The military can either put an end to the crisis, or it can let it deepen to the point of no return.


-- The Nation 2013-12-13

[Nowhereman60]

Millions of Thai's. I doubt these figures.

[ricku]

Whatever happens, I hope it all ends with a bang.

[Bluespunk]

"Top brass now hold all the cards"

Now? When, have they never held them?

[newcomer71]

Another trash piece from The Nation.

Distorted facts, and being the usual political sided newspaper. The same old story

[chooka]

One little nutcase giving the defence force an ultimatum. Join me or I'm going to kick your arse.

Thailand is at a crossroads. One road leads to the empowerment of the people Me the Supreme Ruler Lord Suthep and reform, the other to maintaining the status quo.

[maewang99]

Nowhereman60, never forget that the Democrat Party is backed by enough clout to make them the biggest political party in Thailand, hands down. They bring out more than 10 million voters for every election; dissing the high court and bringing back Thaksin in person at the same time were more than enough to overcome the Yingluck Charm media theme. However, I will have to admit, of course, that using a personality such as Yingluck is very difficult to shake. PT is taking a different tack this time, maybe they have finally learned some lessons from the last big battle. Chart reform, and the stepping back of Yingluck presented as her own decision as the media message for the little folks might just work. It's all about business and at this juncture Thailand's elite can't afford missteps. There are too many intra-regional changes going on for which Thailand could easily be sidestepped. For instance, have you noticed that the Philippines is still holding out in front as Numero Uno, even out gunning China's Great GDP Number Machine, but without the huge financial riggings such as investment driving 60% of those Chinese numbers. Yes?

[Bender]

Now its clearly official, Thailand is a joke!

ps: just imagine the journalists at the Time, Herald Tribune, Die Welt, ..... reading this article

[meechai]

This is something I have not experienced in my life

Never have I seen a country where the elected government,

the police & the military are all their own little factions.

Always thought the (hopefully elected ) government made the laws & the police upheld

them. The police protected the citizens by enforcing the laws

The military protected the country usually from other countries,

but was always there to back the police up if the need arose in policing domestic problems.

But again only as a representative of the laws/elected government.

Here it is odd to see both the Police Force & the Military acting as separate entities

from the elected government & deciding independently what they will or will not do.

I do not see how this system can work regardless of who is heading the government.

Edited December 13, 2013 by meechai

[Roadman]

Jeez. What a lot of nothing journalism about nothing.

The Army by not supporting Suthep is not automatically siding with Pheu Thai. Much to the author's ignorance they have not been playing their cards close to their chest. They have been making it clear and via Nation articles all along that they are neutral and there has to be a political solution found to the impasse.

Here's a real novel idea for the author to consider that instead of it having to be the Army that has to be kIngmaker why he is not instead suggesting that the police do their duty and actually arrest Suthep. Or for Suthep to pull his over sized head out of the clouds, realise that the Army is not at his call and get his ass to court to answer the charges against him.

AS for holding the cards...duh...as Bluespunk says when have they never held them.

Edited December 13, 2013 by Roadman

[kurtgruen]

Biased article, but I agree with in, in Principle. The military is taking a side, by claiming to be neutral. Could all be a game though. Time will tell.

One thing, I have learned, living here, for 13 years is, that most things are not as they seem to be.

Then again, I would not want to live anywhere else. I love this Country and it's People.

If I had to bet, my money

would be on Suthep and his anti-government protesters.

As far as numbers go, as anyone can see, he has been able to bring out an enormous amount of Thai people for this, uniting from different perspectives and different walks of life and hoping for change.

Once again, I hope this will be resolved peacefully, whichever way it turns. After all, pretty much all Thai people care about their Country. They just have different beliefs on how it should be run.

Both sides are very passionate about their beliefs, or what they have been convinced to be the "Truth"

I prefer Thai passion, to the apathy, I felt, in the Country I left.

[15Peter20]

Word on the street is that Prayuth is in Thaksin's pocket but the navy isn't, which is why the armed forces cannot come out unified on one side or the other at this time. That there is a split in a high institution is also a subject of current interest.

[Nowhereman60]

Word on the street is that Prayuth is in Thaksin's pocket but the navy isn't, which is why the armed forces cannot come out unified on one side or the other at this time. That there is a split in a high institution is also a subject of current interest.

I am sure we don't live on the same street.

[binjalin]

"millions" are they as unhinged as Suthep? Amazing 'The Nation' Thailand

[DonThaiToMe]

"Yingluck yielded to the pressure by dissolving Parliament on Monday when millions of Thais staged a peaceful rally for her ousting."

"By keeping its position ambiguous, the military automatically sides with the Yingluck government. At this point, there is no neutral ground - either you back the people's aspiration for reform or you support the status quo of money politics."

´The Nation´ feels more and more like Fox (News) for every day that passes...

Edited December 13, 2013 by DonThaiToMe

[VegasVic]

Biased article, but I agree with in, in Principle. The military is taking a side, by claiming to be neutral. Could all be a game though. Time will tell.

One thing, I have learned, living here, for 13 years is, that most things are not as they seem to be.

Then again, I would not want to live anywhere else. I love this Country and it's People.

If I had to bet, my money

would be on Suthep and his anti-government protesters.

As far as numbers go, as anyone can see, he has been able to bring out an enormous amount of Thai people for this, uniting from different perspectives and different walks of life and hoping for change.

Once again, I hope this will be resolved peacefully, whichever way it turns. After all, pretty much all Thai people care about their Country. They just have different beliefs on how it should be run.

Both sides are very passionate about their beliefs, or what they have been convinced to be the "Truth"

I prefer Thai passion, to the apathy, I felt, in the Country I left.

"he has been able to bring out enormous ammount of Thai people for this" Really, enormous ammount of people? In a country of 70 million people Suthep was able to garner only around 100,000 protesters (and many of them paid protesters at that) , that is a little over 0.1% of the people not exactly a groundswell of support especially in Bangkok, he even had a tough time exiting the college students who are usually ready to protest at the drop of a hat If you really have lived in the LOS for 13 years and have this slanted take on the situation then my guess is that you live in Bangkok In any event I would love to take the other side of your bet, as Suthep is destined for a rather long jail sentence or the business end of a snipers bullet, in fact it amazes me every day this idiot is allowed to continue with this nonsense

[Zolt]

The last batch of news has been confusing to say the least.

- PDRC is hosting a forum on saturday, which military top brass may attend.

- Yingluck is hosting a forum on saturday, which she will not actually attend.

- And now military is hosting a forum too.

Seems like everyone has gone forum-happy!

[Ned]

This guy Thanong talks about Suthep escalating the protests. What's he going to do? Bring in millions from the south? Might be time then for the Red mega majority to up the stakes too and bring millions to the streets of Bangkok.

[tingtongteesood]

This is something I have not experienced in my life

Never have I seen a country where the elected government,

the police & the military are all their own little factions.

Always thought the (hopefully elected ) government made the laws & the police upheld

them. The police protected the citizens by enforcing the laws

The military protected the country usually from other countries,

but was always there to back the police up if the need arose in policing domestic problems.

But again only as a representative of the laws/elected government.

Here it is odd to see both the Police Force & the Military acting as separate entities

from the elected government & deciding independently what they will or will not do.

I do not see how this system can work regardless of who is heading the government.

It's madness isn't it. And they all live in a culture of corruption which although it existed before Thaksin, he revelled in it and made corruption into a fine art. Everyone is for sale to the highest bidder and they all hold out waiting for the 'tea money' before they will do anything useful. Even the government has to pay. On 3rd December, before the police started firing tear gas and water cannons at the anti government protestors, police chief Toopkrajang went round and dispursed 3 million baht to the police at government house and the bridge telling them all that it was a 'present' from Yingluck ( this was reported in the Bangkok Post )

[DLock]

The last batch of news has been confusing to say the least.

- PDRC is hosting a forum on saturday, which military top brass may attend.

- Yingluck is hosting a forum on saturday, which she will not actually attend.

- And now military is hosting a forum too.

Seems like everyone has gone forum-happy!

Don't forget Chalerm's holding a forum as well...which likely only he will attend....if he remembers.

[Zolt]

This guy Thanong talks about Suthep escalating the protests. What's he going to do? Bring in millions from the south? Might be time then for the Red mega majority to up the stakes too and bring millions to the streets of Bangkok.

The reds have had enough of their people getting killed for now. They'll likely protest mostly out of Bangkok - unless Suthep actually manages to go ahead with his coup, in which case things are likely to get ugly.

[kurtgruen]

Biased article, but I agree with in, in Principle. The military is taking a side, by claiming to be neutral. Could all be a game though. Time will tell.

One thing, I have learned, living here, for 13 years is, that most things are not as they seem to be.

Then again, I would not want to live anywhere else. I love this Country and it's People.

If I had to bet, my money

would be on Suthep and his anti-government protesters.

As far as numbers go, as anyone can see, he has been able to bring out an enormous amount of Thai people for this, uniting from different perspectives and different walks of life and hoping for change.

Once again, I hope this will be resolved peacefully, whichever way it turns. After all, pretty much all Thai people care about their Country. They just have different beliefs on how it should be run.

Both sides are very passionate about their beliefs, or what they have been convinced to be the "Truth"

I prefer Thai passion, to the apathy, I felt, in the Country I left.

"he has been able to bring out enormous ammount of Thai people for this" Really, enormous ammount of people? In a country of 70 million people Suthep was able to garner only around 100,000 protesters (and many of them paid protesters at that) , that is a little over 0.1% of the people not exactly a groundswell of support especially in Bangkok, he even had a tough time exiting the college students who are usually ready to protest at the drop of a hat If you really have lived in the LOS for 13 years and have this slanted take on the situation then my guess is that you live in Bangkok In any event I would love to take the other side of your bet, as Suthep is destined for a rather long jail sentence or the business end of a snipers bullet, in fact it amazes me every day this idiot is allowed to continue with this nonsense

No, actually, I live North of Chiang Mai, in an area, that is quite red, compared to a few hundred anti-demonstrator supporters up here.

As far as he demonstrators go, at Woodstock, there were supposed to be over 300,000 people and even so, I am not willing to count them all one by one, in the shots from the sky, in some of the Bangkok pictures, I know, there were more there, than at Woodstock.

Either way, there are a lot of supporters on both sides, who won't come out to risk their lives and people have been risking their lives, on both sides, judging from past protests.

If you can get even 100000 people to come out, risking their lives (and I am sure there were a lot more, at the height of it, it was probably closer to a million), that is a lot, in any society. For everyone out there, there are probably a couple of hundred, who choose to stay home, for whatever reason...fear, financial inability to participate, road blocks, work, etc.

Anyways, time will tell, how it plays out and my money is still on the anti-government demonstrators

[robertson468]

My humble opinion is that Yingluck (Thaksin) dissolved Parliament because they know through their "management" of getting votes, they will win an election again. This will allow them to bring back the Amnesty Bill, in some form or other, and the funding, in one way or another, for the mega projects. I believe Suthep and Co know this and the Country would end up with the previous status quo. I believe the Demonstrators are trying to delay elections so that better systems of transparency and accountability can be implemented. This, hopefully, would radically reduce "vote management" and corruption in Government in general, therefore bring about a true democratic and more open administration. If they fail to do this and the present Government is re-elected, the current chronic polarization is likely to become terminal in the way of a civil war. I believe the military are sufficiently perceptive to see this and could indicate to Yingluck (without a coupe) that she and her Government should stand-down, to allow an appointed Government to re-write the Constitution to include the appropriate checks and balances.

[JoeThePoster]

Top brass now hold all the cards

Amex, Visa, Mastercard, JCB, Diners.... to name a few.

[billd766]

Jeez. What a lot of nothing journalism about nothing.

The Army by not supporting Suthep is not automatically siding with Pheu Thai. Much to the author's ignorance they have not been playing their cards close to their chest. They have been making it clear and via Nation articles all along that they are neutral and there has to be a political solution found to the impasse.

Here's a real novel idea for the author to consider that instead of it having to be the Army that has to be kIngmaker why he is not instead suggesting that the police do their duty and actually arrest Suthep. Or for Suthep to pull his over sized head out of the clouds, realise that the Army is not at his call and get his ass to court to answer the charges against him.

AS for holding the cards...duh...as Bluespunk says when have they never held them.

And then having done their duty they arrest Thaksin and bring him back to Thailand to answer the charges against him.

No bail permitted at all for Thaksin as he has jumped bail once already.

Now in that case there would be NO double standards.

[FangFerang]

A story in the BKK Post discusses how thirty naval policemen invaded a Rayong police station at the request of their boss and attacked three businessmen said boss was angry at. The businessmen offerred 50K baht, the naval boss inside wanted 200k, and then he called in the troops, literally. Attackers all escaped.

These guys will be mediators to fight corruption?

Story just posted, left hand side box of goodies style story list. Chew on that awhile....

Edited December 13, 2013 by FangFerang

[meechai]

And then having done their duty they arrest Thaksin and bring him back to Thailand to answer the charges against him.

No bail permitted at all for Thaksin as he has jumped bail once already.

Now in that case there would be NO double standards.

They are not bounty hunters are they?

Even if they were... there are after all a few countries with extradition agreements with Thailand.

If there is a proper charge & proper paper work/requests then it is a done deal.

If not no extradition

It is not a matter of simple double standards.

I think the main point here is that there are separate factions

within the Thailand system that should be acting as one & on behalf of the Thai citizens.

No country can function this way.

The Military, The Police etc. have to have a loyalty to their government.

If not it does not matter who is in charge or what the laws or constitution says as there literally is no cohesion.

The one equipped with the superior weapons will win. Yet in this case who bought the best equipped their

arms? What was the purpose of arming a military? Probably to protect & serve Thailand. Not to dictate

nor decide who should be in charge at any given complaint.

Was it to give them reign as they saw fit per each event? Because if they take any other side than the

one elected into power by Thai voters then it is basically treason, mutiny what ever you want to call it.

No matter what the excuse is for committing this act.

I have never said any one side was better than the other.

I am saying for a country to get on with it they need stability,reason & logic

[mojorison]

Word on the street is that Prayuth is in Thaksin's pocket but the navy isn't, which is why the armed forces cannot come out unified on one side or the other at this time. That there is a split in a high institution is also a subject of current interest.

You're on the money there. The institution of which you speak has always been divided in this matter. It's well documented.

Edited December 13, 2013 by mojorison

[chrisrazz]

The army are sitting on a pair of two's, there is a pair of three's on the table, plus a four and a six. Who wins depends on the river card.

[mimithewoof]

Millions of Thais peaceful rally restore genuine democracy peoples aspiration for reform - concentration of power in one family empowerment of the people military to support the peoples power - ???!!!???

Please, please, Thai Opinion? How many Thais? This piece reminds me of Tony Bliar's 'Weapons of Mass Destruction' speech just before the Iraq War, and is based on similar distortions of facts. To continue the comparison, Saddam Hussein was the 'People's leader'- just ask any Iraqi what he thought about that at the time, especially when the dictator's statue was torn down.

The population of Thailand is 60? 70 million? How many want another coup with its effect on investment? How many working in tourism or in foreign firms' industrial parks want a dictatorship which could well result is a huge drop in tourism and the relocation of concerned international companies?

An injection of stark reality is what's needed here, and it seems there's no-one who can give it.