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Thai Baht in biggest weekly fall in four months after US Fed move


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A baht devaluation will inevitably manifest as an increased rate of local price inflation.

Agreed. Oil is priced mostly in USD, so fuel will rise in Thailand.

And that puts pricing pressure on goods and services.

The hefty increases in the minimum wage, rice support and consumer credit also increases demand.

Too many baht chasing too few products- but its been a GREAT party smile.png

Diesel price is fixed by the government, it doesn't go up or down with the exchange rate or oil prices.

Most goods are delivered by diesel vehicles, so it doesn't change the price of anything.

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40 to a dollar would be nice....back to the good old days. Sent from my GT-I9200 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Good for selfish people like you, but not good for Thai people who want to travel abroad. Funny how so many expats on this forum just think of themselves. Why care about anyone else, as long as you're ok.

Count me among the selfish...I guess I will have to cede the moral high ground to you.

Never mind that a weaker baht will help Thai exports, and have a positive effect on tourism to Thailand.

They might be able to shift some of that rotting rice.

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A baht devaluation will inevitably manifest as an increased rate of local price inflation.

Agreed. Oil is priced mostly in USD, so fuel will rise in Thailand.

And that puts pricing pressure on goods and services.

The hefty increases in the minimum wage, rice support and consumer credit also increases demand.

Too many baht chasing too few products- but its been a GREAT party smile.png

Diesel price is fixed by the government, it doesn't go up or down with the exchange rate or oil prices.

Most goods are delivered by diesel vehicles, so it doesn't change the price of anything.

Some entity is paying the difference (or making the profit) between what the diesel fuel actually costs, and the fixed price at the pump.

An exchange rate change WILL affect "the price of anything"...even if the price at the pump does not change.

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What is keeping the USD afloat? It has no manufacturing/export sector anymore.

Keep drinking the KoolAid.

"As of 2010, the country remains the world's largest manufacturer, representing a fifth of the global manufacturing output."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States

Manufacturing is roughly 12% of the U.S.'s GDP.

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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

Actually, it's 75 billion now. And with a recently reported growth of 4.1%, the USD isn't going down any time soon. At least not in our lifetimes. There nothing out there to replace it. Bitcoins? 55555

http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/20/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN

Economists at Jefferies & Co. expect the economy to grow 3.3% next year. That would be the biggest level of annual growth in ten years. They also expect the job market to finally replace all the private sector jobs lost in the recession.

Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

The usd prolly will be replaced by a combination of the chinese, russion and yet to form arab coin. The US national debt is way beyond control. In the past big economies in similar problems often started a military war. The once great nation unfortunately is bound to fall deep. Many others will be pulled down with it.

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Good for selfish people like you, but not good for Thai people who want to travel abroad. Funny how so many expats on this forum just think of themselves. Why care about anyone else, as long as you're ok.

Count me among the selfish...I guess I will have to cede the moral high ground to you.

Never mind that a weaker baht will help Thai exports, and have a positive effect on tourism to Thailand.

They might be able to shift some of that rotting rice.

Two Three types of Thais mainly travel abroad.

The super rich, price of anything doesn't matter to them.

Poor female Thais (mainly wives/gfs/hookers) all paid for by foreigners, so price doesn't matter to them either.

Thais working abroad, they get paid more because of the better exchange rate, so it makes them money.

Exactly, the wealth divide here is astronomical. By and large, Thais who travel abroad have so much money it really doesn't matter to them as far as affordability goes. That would have been like worrying about the spending habits of American business tycoons during the Great Depression.

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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

The usd might go down but not in our lifetime.

...That depends on how old we are. I personally think the Dollar will go down, my guess is within 10 years, there are many factors that i base my assumption on, here's a few to start... 1) i believe there is no gold left in Fort knox, 2) the sellers of 'paper gold' (again in my opinion) have over sold the contracts by at least 5 times. 3) One of the reasons the Dollar keeps its value is that to buy oil the price is in Dollars so oil has to be purchased (from Saudi etc) in Dollars therefor other countries use Dollars for this purpose, soon however i believe there will be a change to this (Russia, China or India) will trade their currency direct for oil thus stunning the Dollar, add that to the $17.2 Trillion Dollars of the US nationel debt will maybe not kill the Dollar outright but it will make it pretty worthless.

I tend to agree with your three assessments however there is an additional danger for the Dollar, the elephant in the room is the interest rate derivative exposure in the US and western world’s major banks. If rates rise and eventually they will it will take down the not only the Dollar but the entire world financial system. That will be the global currency reset many economists are warning is coming one day. When that happens the countries with the most gold will be in the best position and it looks like that will be China and overall the Asian region of the world.

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That is why Benito Sutheppi is so popular with some posters here!!thumbsup.gif

He is increasing the value of their pensions!

The rice scheme has a way higher influence than all of Sutheps actions. Any idea where that scheme came from?

Any idea where that scheme came from?

Yes, commonly used in developed countries. The US provides subsidies to most agriculture crops since food in necessary for all of the citizens of that country. You must do everything in your power to see that the farmers keep farming, because without them...well obviously you know the answer to this. It takes a special person to be a farmer, and it is usually passed down from generation to generation. You don't see business people deciding to become farmers. Don't force farmers to become bankers, because you will not have anyone to grow your food supply.

I must say that the Thai government made the wrong decision to pay subsidies and then thinking they could raise the price of rice on the world market. Sheer lunacy. They should have just risen taxes to support the subsidies and be done with it. Thinking they could move the market price of rice around the world was their downfall here, and made it seem like the entire program (scheme) was faulty. Not so, just their implementation. They were correct in supporting the farmer. (And no, I have never been a farmer. You could never get me to work that hard for so little.)

Do not forget that the Thai government is also supporting rubber growers, most of whom are in the south. The world over supply will get worse as vast new plantations in neighbouring countries start producing latex. This scheme has tha potential to dwarf the problems with the rice pledging scheme.

The Thai government is NOT supporting the rubber growers sad.png

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The more the Thai government tries to save face the more baht goes into our pockets. Keep up the good work thumbsup.gif.pagespeed.ce.dtxKiAJ9C7.gif .

That's a pretty ignorant statement. Clearly, you have no idea how the global financial system works or what effects currency exchange rates.

I think we all have an idea of how the financial market works. These companies come up with illegal

ideas and products, get caught and their customers pay the fines.

In the UK the PPI scam ran for over 20 years and ALL the banks new it was a scam. They have now been

told to pay the money back. Of course they are trying to wriggle out of as many pay-outs as they can.

Barclays suggested that they only have to keep records for 6 years.

So far the Financial ombudsman has been dealing with my claim for over 2 years because these bankers are

prepared to make things as difficult as possible.

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"Though corporate finances remain in good shape, companies' earnings have tended to drop - particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises - due to economic deterioration."

is this the group that is protesting ? If it is they deserve what they reap. And they are loosing money now and that is good.

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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

The usd might go down but not in our lifetime.

...That depends on how old we are. I personally think the Dollar will go down, my guess is within 10 years, there are many factors that i base my assumption on, here's a few to start... 1) i believe there is no gold left in Fort knox, 2) the sellers of 'paper gold' (again in my opinion) have over sold the contracts by at least 5 times. 3) One of the reasons the Dollar keeps its value is that to buy oil the price is in Dollars so oil has to be purchased (from Saudi etc) in Dollars therefor other countries use Dollars for this purpose, soon however i believe there will be a change to this (Russia, China or India) will trade their currency direct for oil thus stunning the Dollar, add that to the $17.2 Trillion Dollars of the US nationel debt will maybe not kill the Dollar outright but it will make it pretty worthless.

pssstttt.....the world is run by the illuminati....

i love all this conspiracy theory stuff...why does this moron says he believes fort knox is empty...has he been there....oh no, he just got it from one of those gold bug websites....so it must be true....hey and the moon landing was faked too...

and <deleted> does he mean by the sellers of paper gold have oversold by 5 times....what on earth does that mean?

what is his day job....sweeping up in macdonalds...but by night a superhero advising on global economics....

Edited by paddyjenkins
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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

Actually, it's 75 billion now. And with a recently reported growth of 4.1%, the USD isn't going down any time soon. At least not in our lifetimes. There nothing out there to replace it. Bitcoins? 55555

http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/20/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN

Economists at Jefferies & Co. expect the economy to grow 3.3% next year. That would be the biggest level of annual growth in ten years. They also expect the job market to finally replace all the private sector jobs lost in the recession.

Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

The usd prolly will be replaced by a combination of the chinese, russion and yet to form arab coin. The US national debt is way beyond control. In the past big economies in similar problems often started a military war. The once great nation unfortunately is bound to fall deep. Many others will be pulled down with it.

why do people say "prolly"...what is the point...why not just use the actual word, probably?

by the way, so far the US hasn't printed a single cent...what it has done is "quantitative easing".

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Does anybody remember the first 'baht' crash a number of years ago.? I am trying to recall the most baht for a dollar and it seems to me like it was about 54 baht to 1 USD. When I bought my house in Pattaya several years ago I think it was about 42 or 43 to 1 USD........... Just curious.............

in january 1998 i got 55.25 Baht for one Dollar. but it did not last long, two months later we were below 40. then slowly to >45 in 2001 and since then...

here's USD THB 1997/1998:

USD%20THB%201997-1998.jpg

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Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

It worked for Germany.

They're doing pretty well now.

It didn't work out for Germany at all. As a result they got Hitler and the totalitarian regime. Germans are doing pretty well know only because they learned their lessons from the past. They're not printing money without having cover for it. Americans will have terrible time learning how to live within their means. Soon.

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This headline should read "USD strengthens", as it has done against all of the other major currencies this week! I am waiting for the posts now of oh Thailand's doomed, it was bound to happen, Yinluck's fault, yellow/red shirts etc........... Yawn!

Simple fact, the US$ has strengthened globally on the back of the reduced amount of bond purchases from the FED.

Then why also the Euro and other currencies are getting stronger against the Thai baht?

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

USD vs Euro - USD is strengthening!!

during the last 6 months USD lost 6% vs. €UR and 9% vs. GBP.

what happened "this week" is irrelevant. let's wait and see what will happen in 2014.

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Quite Logical ..

Just as the AUD needed to Fall from Great Highs , The Barht has been WAYYY too high also .

Good for Thai exports , and with current unrest it was pretty obviously going to go this way . On a selfish level , Good for me Also .

The Barht will find its correct place over the next few months .

Amen! whistling.gif

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That is why Benito Sutheppi is so popular with some posters here!!thumbsup.gif

He is increasing the value of their pensions!

The rice scheme has a way higher influence than all of Sutheps actions. Any idea where that scheme came from?

Any idea where that scheme came from?

Yes, commonly used in developed countries. The US provides subsidies to most agriculture crops since food in necessary for all of the citizens of that country. You must do everything in your power to see that the farmers keep farming, because without them...well obviously you know the answer to this. It takes a special person to be a farmer, and it is usually passed down from generation to generation. You don't see business people deciding to become farmers. Don't force farmers to become bankers, because you will not have anyone to grow your food supply.

I must say that the Thai government made the wrong decision to pay subsidies and then thinking they could raise the price of rice on the world market. Sheer lunacy. They should have just risen taxes to support the subsidies and be done with it. Thinking they could move the market price of rice around the world was their downfall here, and made it seem like the entire program (scheme) was faulty. Not so, just their implementation. They were correct in supporting the farmer. (And no, I have never been a farmer. You could never get me to work that hard for so little.)

Without the rice scheme Thai rice export would be substantially higher, Thailand would still be the world's number one rice exporter, there would hardly be any rice rotting away in warehouses and the Thai national debt would be many billions lower. The farmers would still be farming and they would not starving. The political unrest probably would be a bit less high too.

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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

The usd might go down but not in our lifetime.

...That depends on how old we are. I personally think the Dollar will go down, my guess is within 10 years, there are many factors that i base my assumption on, here's a few to start... 1) i believe there is no gold left in Fort knox, 2) the sellers of 'paper gold' (again in my opinion) have over sold the contracts by at least 5 times. 3) One of the reasons the Dollar keeps its value is that to buy oil the price is in Dollars so oil has to be purchased (from Saudi etc) in Dollars therefor other countries use Dollars for this purpose, soon however i believe there will be a change to this (Russia, China or India) will trade their currency direct for oil thus stunning the Dollar, add that to the $17.2 Trillion Dollars of the US nationel debt will maybe not kill the Dollar outright but it will make it pretty worthless.

I tend to agree with your three assessments however there is an additional danger for the Dollar, the elephant in the room is the interest rate derivative exposure in the US and western worlds major banks. If rates rise and eventually they will it will take down the not only the Dollar but the entire world financial system. That will be the global currency reset many economists are warning is coming one day. When that happens the countries with the most gold will be in the best position and it looks like that will be China and overall the Asian region of the world.

Yes ill use my gold at walmart to buy milk and donuts. I am sure opec will be happy to get paid in russian rubles.

Countries like Germany, Holland and Saudi Arabia already brought home the biggest part of their gold reserves from the US. Why would they do that after storing it for decades in the States?

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That is why Benito Sutheppi is so popular with some posters here!!thumbsup.gif

He is increasing the value of their pensions!

The rice scheme has a way higher influence than all of Sutheps actions. Any idea where that scheme came from?

Any idea where that scheme came from?

Yes, commonly used in developed countries. The US provides subsidies to most agriculture crops since food in necessary for all of the citizens of that country. You must do everything in your power to see that the farmers keep farming, because without them...well obviously you know the answer to this. It takes a special person to be a farmer, and it is usually passed down from generation to generation. You don't see business people deciding to become farmers. Don't force farmers to become bankers, because you will not have anyone to grow your food supply.

I must say that the Thai government made the wrong decision to pay subsidies and then thinking they could raise the price of rice on the world market. Sheer lunacy. They should have just risen taxes to support the subsidies and be done with it. Thinking they could move the market price of rice around the world was their downfall here, and made it seem like the entire program (scheme) was faulty. Not so, just their implementation. They were correct in supporting the farmer. (And no, I have never been a farmer. You could never get me to work that hard for so little.)

Without the rice scheme Thai rice export would be substantially higher, Thailand would still be the world's number one rice exporter, there would hardly be any rice rotting away in warehouses and the Thai national debt would be many billions lower. The farmers would still be farming and they would not starving. The political unrest probably would be a bit less high too.

Just a tip of the riceberg

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Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

It worked for Germany.

They're doing pretty well now.

It didn't work out for Germany at all. As a result they got Hitler and the totalitarian regime. Germans are doing pretty well know only because they learned their lessons from the past. They're not printing money without having cover for it. Americans will have terrible time learning how to live within their means. Soon.

Adolf brought back huge unemployment figures to almost zero with the war industry. When growth stagnated, he started that war that ruined everything. German economy got huge mainly thanks to the Marshall help and to the mentality of the German workers and unions in the 50ies. I suggest you google Marshall plan and read some.

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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

Actually, it's 75 billion now. And with a recently reported growth of 4.1%, the USD isn't going down any time soon. At least not in our lifetimes. There nothing out there to replace it. Bitcoins? 55555

http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/20/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN

Economists at Jefferies & Co. expect the economy to grow 3.3% next year. That would be the biggest level of annual growth in ten years. They also expect the job market to finally replace all the private sector jobs lost in the recession.

Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

The usd prolly will be replaced by a combination of the chinese, russion and yet to form arab coin. The US national debt is way beyond control. In the past big economies in similar problems often started a military war. The once great nation unfortunately is bound to fall deep. Many others will be pulled down with it.

You were never an accountant, were you? The US is wealthy beyond belief. No accountant looks only at someone's liabilities without also looking at his assets to determine a net worth.

Next, you have to separate the private sector from the government and realize that the private sector is huge, rich, global, and thriving. It is rolling in cash. The banking sector has been cleaned up and is solvent. I could go on and on.

But look at the assets of the US government. It owns 1/2 of the land and all of the resources on it from the Rocky Mountains West. That land is loaded with natural resources that have a huge market value. The land itself does too. On that land is more oil than exists in all of the rest of the world combined and it belongs to the US government. So does all of the oil in Alaska and all of the oil off shore in its 88,000 miles of salt water shore line. It's possible that the US government owns as much as 3 times as much oil as exists in all of the rest of the world combined.

All across that land is a monumental amount of timber, rare earth minerals, lots of other minerals, iron ore, coal - you name it.

You have no idea how wealthy the US government really is, much less the private sector which OWNS technology and exports it all over the world. The US has by far the worlds largest economy which is growing, and its technology is outrunning everyone, everywhere, combined.

China ain't shit. It's broke. It's day has passed. It's a faltering communist country which cooks its books but is flat broke.

The US is about to pass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer using only oil found on private land. Within 3 years the US will be energy independent. It has 100 year supply of natural gas already drilled and ready, and that's all on private land too.

YOU are unable to comprehend the enormity or the wealth of the United States of America.

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Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

It worked for Germany.

They're doing pretty well now.

It didn't work out for Germany at all. As a result they got Hitler and the totalitarian regime. Germans are doing pretty well know only because they learned their lessons from the past. They're not printing money without having cover for it. Americans will have terrible time learning how to live within their means. Soon.

Adolf brought back huge unemployment figures to almost zero with the war industry. When growth stagnated, he started that war that ruined everything. German economy got huge mainly thanks to the Marshall help and to the mentality of the German workers and unions in the 50ies. I suggest you google Marshall plan and read some.

I'm not sure what you think that war ruined?

Seems to me to have solved many long term problems, but failed to achieve the final solution promised.

Edited by FiftyTwo
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The US still are printing over 80 BILLION usd each and every month. That is 1 TRILLION usd a year. Ditch the usd as standard or go down with it.

Actually, it's 75 billion now. And with a recently reported growth of 4.1%, the USD isn't going down any time soon. At least not in our lifetimes. There nothing out there to replace it. Bitcoins? 55555

http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/20/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?iid=SF_E_LN

Economists at Jefferies & Co. expect the economy to grow 3.3% next year. That would be the biggest level of annual growth in ten years. They also expect the job market to finally replace all the private sector jobs lost in the recession.

Show any country in history that printed heaps and heaps of extra money to get out of problems and succeeded.

The usd prolly will be replaced by a combination of the chinese, russion and yet to form arab coin. The US national debt is way beyond control. In the past big economies in similar problems often started a military war. The once great nation unfortunately is bound to fall deep. Many others will be pulled down with it.

You were never an accountant, were you? The US is wealthy beyond belief. No accountant looks only at someone's liabilities without also looking at his assets to determine a net worth.

Next, you have to separate the private sector from the government and realize that the private sector is huge, rich, global, and thriving. It is rolling in cash. The banking sector has been cleaned up and is solvent. I could go on and on.

But look at the assets of the US government. It owns 1/2 of the land and all of the resources on it from the Rocky Mountains West. That land is loaded with natural resources that have a huge market value. The land itself does too. On that land is more oil than exists in all of the rest of the world combined and it belongs to the US government. So does all of the oil in Alaska and all of the oil off shore in its 88,000 miles of salt water shore line. It's possible that the US government owns as much as 3 times as much oil as exists in all of the rest of the world combined.

All across that land is a monumental amount of timber, rare earth minerals, lots of other minerals, iron ore, coal - you name it.

You have no idea how wealthy the US government really is, much less the private sector which OWNS technology and exports it all over the world. The US has by far the worlds largest economy which is growing, and its technology is outrunning everyone, everywhere, combined.

China ain't shit. It's broke. It's day has passed. It's a faltering communist country which cooks its books but is flat broke.

The US is about to pass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer using only oil found on private land. Within 3 years the US will be energy independent. It has 100 year supply of natural gas already drilled and ready, and that's all on private land too.

YOU are unable to comprehend the enormity or the wealth of the United States of America.

The issue that is going to screw both the US and China ( with Thailand not far behind) is declining population growth/ageing population; fewer people working to support those who are not. The US is grossly underprepared for how to deal with social security requirements over the next 50 years and China has virtually no system at all. Economically, both are dead in the water.

Thailand, the " old man of Asia" in demographic terms, faces exactly the same issues in the near future. The problems in Thailand today look trivial compared with what's coming, unless they can START to get their act together.

The US has the capacity the re-invent itself, probably China can as well. Thailand ???

Edited by Prbkk
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That is why Benito Sutheppi is so popular with some posters here!!thumbsup.gif

He is increasing the value of their pensions!

The rice scheme has a way higher influence than all of Sutheps actions. Any idea where that scheme came from?

Any idea where that scheme came from?

Yes, commonly used in developed countries. The US provides subsidies to most agriculture crops since food in necessary for all of the citizens of that country. You must do everything in your power to see that the farmers keep farming, because without them...well obviously you know the answer to this. It takes a special person to be a farmer, and it is usually passed down from generation to generation. You don't see business people deciding to become farmers. Don't force farmers to become bankers, because you will not have anyone to grow your food supply.

I must say that the Thai government made the wrong decision to pay subsidies and then thinking they could raise the price of rice on the world market. Sheer lunacy. They should have just risen taxes to support the subsidies and be done with it. Thinking they could move the market price of rice around the world was their downfall here, and made it seem like the entire program (scheme) was faulty. Not so, just their implementation. They were correct in supporting the farmer. (And no, I have never been a farmer. You could never get me to work that hard for so little.)

The US supports corn crops, as coca cola uses corn syrup and the oil industry uses ethanol. It is a corprotocracy, money talks. they sing for the rich.

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