weak thai baht please, NO WEAKER

[TheSwede99]

And in another similiar thread, there is a guy who thinks people like me & you are selfish coz we are hoping for the baht to sink. As the guy mentioned, we are only thinking of ourselves.

Sent from my GT-I9200 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Why should we not be selfish and think of ourselves?

No one else thinks of us, and certainly not the Thais.

We must think of ourselves first and then ourselves, and ultimately ourselves.

[TravelerEastWest]

The weaker the Thai Baht, the more Foreign Tourists will come here and spend money to keep Thai Nationals Employed.

Plus the weaker Thai baht means lots more exports again keeping workers employed.

The weaker Thai baht encourages expats to live in Thailand.

[BusyB]

A weak THB appears good because on the surface it could boost tourist revenues. However, pound for pound, Thailand was still attracting enough paying punters when the THB was over 38.5/EUR. Tourist revenues aren’t a firm basis for an economy either. They’re (hopefully) a small part of the mix. About 6% here I think?

The weaker THB also makes Thai exports cheaper, which also provides far more jobs than tourism. And that boosts other industries in the supply chain. Exports are about two thirds of Thai GDP. It’s true, at first the rice-farmer won’t notice, even if the current rice backlog were to start dwindling. But eventually inflation kicks in – oil imports are one good example, though most commodities are factored in dollars and that means a weak THB boosts the prices of many essential imports. Even if the population only “buys Thai” that will feed through eventually.

The reality is, as Germany discovered a long time ago, and why Berlin is consequently so nervous about weakening the EUR, is that it’s far and away better to have a strong currency. If you need to you can always weaken it a lot easier than you can strengthen it. Strengthening a currency needs real economic performance over the long term. It can be weakened at the stroke of a pen (or the sparking of a revolt).

A strong currency like the $AUS has downsides as well though. It’s why US carmakers are shutting down in Oz – their cars are simply too expensive to make there. They lose out against Asian competitors in OZ and Asia. And the SFR got so hot a while back during the Greece-Euro crisis,some Swiss interest rates turned negative, penalizing deposits in SFR. The government also introduced minimum exchange rates to weaken the franc, because its strength vis a vis € + $ all but killed off tourism and exports.

There is a balance, even if local political upsets can sometimes affect that balance despite economic fundamentals.

So … Thailand great for tourists at the moment. Unfortunately it’ll be a couple of months before I’m in LOS again. I was happy about 43.50/EUR recently. See if that holds till March. Is that “self-centered”? Only until my demand for THB forces the exchange rate up again!

[chiang mai]

The weaker the Thai Baht, the more Foreign Tourists will come here and spend money to keep Thai Nationals Employed.

Plus the weaker Thai baht means lots more exports again keeping workers employed.

The weaker Thai baht encourages expats to live in Thailand.

And so it is that a weaker Pound encourages Romanians to live in England, does that still sound like a great idea!

[FiftyTwo]

The weaker the Thai Baht, the more Foreign Tourists will come here and spend money to keep Thai Nationals Employed.

Plus the weaker Thai baht means lots more exports again keeping workers employed.

The weaker Thai baht encourages expats to live in Thailand.

And so it is that a weaker Pound encourages Romanians to live in England, does that still sound like a great idea!

Strong pound encourages Romanians and Polish and the rest to go to England for work.

Recently with the weak pound they have all been returning home, cos the British pound wasn't worth earning.

As usual you are 100% wrong.

Edited December 22, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[chiang mai]

Strong pound encourages Romanians and Polish and the rest to go to England for work.

Recently with the weak pound they have all been returning home, cos the British pound wasn't worth earning.

As usual you were 100% wrong.

Tommo, provide a link to support your statement that Romainians are returning home because the Pound is not worth owning, otherwise it's untrue, which we all know it is anyway!

Edited December 22, 2013 by chiang mai

[FiftyTwo]

provide a link to support your statement that Europeans are returning home because the Pound is not worth owning, otherwise it's untrue, which we all know it is anyway!

"The Polish government is being warned by its economic advisers that up to a third 400,000 of Britain's Polish population could follow Krzysztof in the next 12 months.

Increased prosperity in Poland and the prospect of a severe recession in Britain mean that the economic gap between the two countries is closing fast. The dream of fast cars, fast living and fast fortunes is as attractive as ever but, for many Poles, the odds of achieving it here are lengthening fast.

For Krzysztof, there was little glamour at the potato farm in Cambridgeshire where he ended up, working back-breaking, 12-hour days for the minimum wage. "I worked a very hard job," he says."

From

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/3248852/Polish-immigrants-leaving-Britain-What-the-Poles-did-for-us.html

Strong currency attracts foreign workers.

Weak currency attracts foreign tourists.

Edited December 22, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[chiang mai]

provide a link to support your statement that Europeans are returning home because the Pound is not worth owning, otherwise it's untrue, which we all know it is anyway!

"The Polish government is being warned by its economic advisers that up to a third 400,000 of Britain's Polish population could follow Krzysztof in the next 12 months.

Increased prosperity in Poland and the prospect of a severe recession in Britain mean that the economic gap between the two countries is closing fast. The dream of fast cars, fast living and fast fortunes is as attractive as ever but, for many Poles, the odds of achieving it here are lengthening fast.

For Krzysztof, there was little glamour at the potato farm in Cambridgeshire where he ended up, working back-breaking, 12-hour days for the minimum wage. "I worked a very hard job," he says."

From

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/3248852/Polish-immigrants-leaving-Britain-What-the-Poles-did-for-us.html

Strong currency attracts foreign workers.

Weak currency attracts foreign tourists.

I said Romainians, you said Poles, er, um not the same thing, Tommo/AOA!

BTW the article in your link is dated 2008 so not 100% current.

Edited December 22, 2013 by chiang mai

[i claudius]

Poles come mainly to work ,Romainians to scrounge and steal.

[KarenBravo]

Romanians aren't allowed in until 1st January.

[spidermike007]

I feel so angry at people ... srry

This isn't your country and never will be, why would you care anyway.

Come the revolution (very soon now) they will throw you out without a second thought.

And the girl you sleep with, all she cares about is the money you give her.

I am absolutely thrilled I can wake up in the morning and not be inside your head. That must be a difficult place to reside. Of course this is not our country. But, that does not mean it is not a place we deeply care about, and adore. So what if it is not the country we were born in. And I am truly sorry your romantic life has gone so poorly, but that is not a good reason to project your bad fortune on the entire ex-pat community. I am very happy to report some of us have had extremely good fortune, and been able to find wonderful women who care about us for far more reasons than just the fact that we are solvent men, and can provide a comfortable life for them. So, enough with your silly, poorly informed generalizations. I do hope and pray that things improve for you.

[FiftyTwo]

I feel so angry at people ... srry

This isn't your country and never will be, why would you care anyway.

Come the revolution (very soon now) they will throw you out without a second thought.

And the girl you sleep with, all she cares about is the money you give her.

I am absolutely thrilled I can wake up in the morning and not be inside your head. That must be a difficult place to reside. Of course this is not our country. But, that does not mean it is not a place we deeply care about, and adore. So what if it is not the country we were born in. And I am truly sorry your romantic life has gone so poorly, but that is not a good reason to project your bad fortune on the entire ex-pat community. I am very happy to report some of us have had extremely good fortune, and been able to find wonderful women who care about us for far more reasons than just the fact that we are solvent men, and can provide a comfortable life for them. So, enough with your silly, poorly informed generalizations. I do hope and pray that things improve for you.

Are you claiming you haven't bought a house and car for your Thai lady?

[chiang mai]

Romanians aren't allowed in until 1st January.

Tell that to the hoards on Oxford Street near Marble Arch, they'll be horrified to know that.

[KarenBravo]

Not allowed to work as an EU citizen until 1st January without the necessity of a visa........but then, you knew that, right?

Edited December 22, 2013 by KarenBravo

[chiang mai]

Not allowed to work as an EU citizen until 1st January without the necessity of a visa........but then, you knew that, right?

Oddly, yes! So now we go full circle in this discussion!

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/690960-weak-thai-baht-please-no-weaker/page-4#entry7192649

[Huayrat]

As a retiree I am required to have a minimum pension of 65,000 THB/month.

65,000 @ 42 THB/£=£1548

52 THB/£=£1250=£298 or 15496 THB better off/month.

I live quite comfortably on 30,000 THB and even if inflation was 10% that would be an increase of 3,000/month therefore in real terms 12496 THB better off.

One last thing my pension is linked to the UK RPI, so April 2014 I get a 2.7% increase 65000 + 2.7% = 667,500.

I've applied logic and simple maths....or if I've made an error, then I'm sure someone will correct me....again I used 65,000 as this is the MINIMUM monthly requirement.

Your pension is linked to the CPI... If it was the RPI you would be getting more but the government soon changed that..

[watso63]

House, car, gold, diamonds, hottub, CSA, big chunks of my pension lump sum etc....UK, NOT THAILAND. Full of boring old women in their 40's waiting for god, nagging any man that has a bit of get up and go. Well I did get up and go and I am happy....even happier as the baht weakens against the £. "It's my life I'll decide not you"....wise lyrics from Beyond the Realms of Death, Judas Priest. Oh yeah and my money not yours!

[watso63]

As a retiree I am required to have a minimum pension of 65,000 THB/month.

65,000 @ 42 THB/£=£1548

52 THB/£=£1250=£298 or 15496 THB better off/month.

I live quite comfortably on 30,000 THB and even if inflation was 10% that would be an increase of 3,000/month therefore in real terms 12496 THB better off.

One last thing my pension is linked to the UK CPI, so April 2014 I get a 2.7% increase 65000 + 2.7% = 667,500.

I've applied logic and simple maths....or if I've made an error, then I'm sure someone will correct me....again I used 65,000 as this is the MINIMUM monthly requirement.

Your pension is linked to the CPI... If it was the RPI you would be getting more but the government soon changed that..

Edited December 22, 2013 by watso63

[chiang mai]

It's Xmas, be happy!

[bangon04]

According to Reuters, much of the weakening of the Baht is due to the withdrawal of currency speculators.

and supposedly by the Fed threatening to taper the QE very soon. If the capital outflow from emerging markets back to the US gains momentum, then one of the side effects would be a weakening of the emerging market currencies .

[Naam]

As a retiree I am required to have a minimum pension of 65,000 THB/month.

65,000 @ 42 THB/£=£1548

52 THB/£=£1250=£298 or 15496 THB better off/month.

I live quite comfortably on 30,000 THB and even if inflation was 10% that would be an increase of 3,000/month therefore in real terms 12496 THB better off.

One last thing my pension is linked to the UK RPI, so April 2014 I get a 2.7% increase 65000 + 2.7% = 667,500.

I've applied logic and simple maths....or if I've made an error, then I'm sure someone will correct me....again I used 65,000 as this is the MINIMUM monthly requirement.

Your pension is linked to the CPI... If it was the RPI you would be getting more but the government soon changed that..

your maths is too simple 'watso63'. let's try again and find out that 65,000 + 2.7% is (unfortunately for you) not 667,500

[rayongchelsea]

All the supposed experts ( on bloomberg cnbc etc..) seem to all agree that the emerging markets currencies will depreciate against the dollar/ sterling/euro.

If they all play the same trade then surely it will happen..

[i claudius]

All the supposed experts ( on bloomberg cnbc etc..) seem to all agree that the emerging markets currencies will depreciate against the dollar/ sterling/euro. If they all play the same trade then surely it will happen..

We can but hope ,but i long ago stopped believing what the experts say , no one really knows they just make informed guesses like us.

[Ulic]

Not sure I really understand your point, the exchange rate fluctuates for the most part based on the Thai governments

policies and the need for foreign currencies and the need of foreign companies/ individuals wanting baht. Perception

of the rice scheme being a currency looser, high interest rates in relation to borrowing from Japan/US a currency winner

until the money decides to leave Thailand. Of course a stronger baht is good for the bulk of Thais with the exception

of the tourist and export sectors. Many benefit during the artificial good times, and suffer when those artificial good times

end. Greece is an excellent example. The population was living like kings when the government was promising the people

everything to get elected. Double the number of civil servants per, person as the rest of Europe. Fantastic wages for

civil servants, great pensions, lying on income tax filings was national pastime. Now the good times are over and the

the hangover is being felt world wide as bond holders took a 50% haircut. All those losers subsidizing the Greek good times.

Now they moan the austerity is unfair. Here in Thailand it is difficult to raise the minimum wage by 33% pay rice farmers a

40% premium for there crop print up baht to buy USD for currency reserve after the 97 crisis, pay a 35% premium on

infrastructure projects to cover the corruption costs and not expect the baht to go down. For the standard of living to

go up production also has to rise. The government should help the farmers to increase yield and crop quality to increase value.

Infrastructure projects should be based on need and return on investment not so officials can get there snouts in the trough.

Rail, roads, water management sound reasonable, high speed trains is a waste of money. Here people have time not money.

Who cares if a trip is 2 hrs versus. 4 hrs. Thais can build/upgrade rail lines for high speed but they would have to get the Germans

French or Chinese to build. This project will increase the debt, the money leaving the country lowers the value of the baht.

If the Chinese want this high speed rail to Singapore let them finance, build, own and run it. Just charge them a land lease.

The point is the strength of the baht is based on what decisions on Thais make. Expats bringing there retirement money in

strengthen the baht, is an excellent source of foreign currency and it does not matter what rate they get they spend it here so

if the baht goes down and ex-pats get 2k-4k more a month don't worry, it all is spent here on whatever there proclivities are.

[keith7777]

As I see it the baht has been climbing for the last few years and it has hurt me a great deal. Every thing you buy or pay for has gone sky high during this time and I get less and less of a bank for my baht. I think the baht should weaken a lot more than it has so that I can recoup some of my money and buying power. The average Thai does not feel any change in his spending power if the baht goes up or down. I say let it fall!!!!!!!!! I like it.

[David48]

It's Xmas, be happy!

Well Said ...

So, for all those exchange from coin on the left to coin on the right ... a Merry Christmas to you all.

[watso63]

As a retiree I am required to have a minimum pension of 65,000 THB/month.

65,000 @ 42 THB/£=£1548

52 THB/£=£1250=£298 or 15496 THB better off/month.

I live quite comfortably on 30,000 THB and even if inflation was 10% that would be an increase of 3,000/month therefore in real terms 12496 THB better off.

One last thing my pension is linked to the UK RPI, so April 2014 I get a 2.7% increase 65000 + 2.7% = 667,500.

I've applied logic and simple maths....or if I've made an error, then I'm sure someone will correct me....again I used 65,000 as this is the MINIMUM monthly requirement.

Your pension is linked to the CPI... If it was the RPI you would be getting more but the government soon changed that..

your maths is too simple 'watso63'. let's try again and find out that 65,000 + 2.7% is (unfortunately for you) not 667,500

[GAZZPA]

Utter tosh, ........

Are you claiming your partner isn't Thai?

I'm claiming that your previous post, "We are here for cheap sex, age of customer not relevant.

99% of the guys here, are single or were single when they arrived", is utter tosh and totally inaccurate!

And I'm claiming if your bed partner is Thai, you would have great trouble refuting my claim.

Well my partner isn't Thai. Many people I know are here as expats and their wives are with them. There are of course many foreign men with Thai women but would do you expect when they have come to Thailand.. You're generalisation is wrong though, sounds like you are telling us more about yourself then everyone else.

[GAZZPA]

House, car, gold, diamonds, hottub, CSA, big chunks of my pension lump sum etc....UK, NOT THAILAND. Full of boring old women in their 40's waiting for god, nagging any man that has a bit of get up and go. Well I did get up and go and I am happy....even happier as the baht weakens against the £. "It's my life I'll decide not you"....wise lyrics from Beyond the Realms of Death, Judas Priest. Oh yeah and my money not yours!

blimey, are you feeling a little bitter...

[GAZZPA]

If exports of goods and services accounts for a large percentage of the Thai economy, then a strong Thai Baht is a negative. It shouldn't be too hard to understand, really. Thai exports are less competitive at a higher price due to a strong Baht relative to other currencies. Many Thai exports can be easily sourced elsewhere, and if they are only competitive on price the exchange rate becomes very important. Sure, the cost of imported items go up, but this probably does not impact the average Thai. Thailand is always trying to promote domestic goods vs foreign alternatives, so a weak Baht helps in this respect, too. Why do you think foreign goods are subject to such high taxes?

If exports (and tourism) decline, unemployment will rise. Unemployed people do not usually receive incomes. This is a bad thing. Wage growth has more than kept up with inflation, so the "average" Thai is unquestionably better off than they were 10-15 years ago.

By the way, the price you pay for noodles and beer is not a good measure of inflation. The amount of money one guy has in his wallet is also not a valid economic indicator. The amount of money you have in your wallet probably says as much (or more) about you than it does about the macroeconomic environment.

How much disposable income a person has is the only real relevant economic indicator as it is a consequence of everything else. If people have no money each month and they are just surviving with no disposable income then the economic environment is rubbish, that's how the man on the street will see it and therefore that is how it will be perceived by everyone.