Smoke, Smog, Dust 2014 Chiang Mai

[chiang mai]

@chiang mai - fires in neighboring countries are fewer than in thailand. I don't have the time or energy to refute every single one of your posts so I put the burden of proof for this one on you. Show me those maps where Burma has a lot more fires. Because all the ones posted in this forum show either an even number or more in Thailand. Just look 3 posts up.

When you have a fire, don't blame your neighbor for the smoke.

If Thailand cleaned up ITS act, we would have some haze on the horizon, but we would not have choking air and visibilities less than a few kilometers.

^^ exactly!

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/

[chiang mai]

I surely don't dispute that burning is a problem across Southeast Asia and other countries contribute to our local problem. What I know is that when you get 150 kilometers from a fire, you do not have visibilities of 300-1000 meters like we occasionally have around Chiang Mai. The high levels of smoke and particulate that Chiang Mai residents suffer from is from local forest burning. I have spent a lot of time flying near forest fires in Idaho, Washington, and Montana, some as large as 170,000 acres, and I can assure you that when you get 100 miles away from a fire, the visibilities will never be less than five kilometers. Get within 20 miles of a fire, and visibilities are much lower. If Thailand cleaned up ITS act, we would have some haze on the horizon, but we would not have choking air and visibilities less than a few kilometers. You don't have to look far to find scorched forests here, but unfortunately there is no movement to ever change the habits.

"If Thailand cleaned up ITS act, we would have some haze on the horizon, but we would not have choking air and visibilities less than a few kilometers".

I don't know how you can say that with any confidence, without knowing what the air currents are like in a particular area, it's not as though smoke rises only vertically and is not allowed to cross borders. And as has been mentioned earlier, when Indonesia starts to burn and the winds blow North, Singapore and Malaysia catch a serious cold, same principles apply in Northern Thailand but the sources are different. And as a pilot (I presume) you will know that thermals blow in different patterns at different altitudes, case in point is the attached wind map which shows wind currents over northern Thailand are predominantly from the West,South West, Burma, an area of intense burning presently:

http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast#6/17.246/102.964

Edited March 28, 2014 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Regrets P2 if you think the NASA fire maps are not reliable, cannot help either that you are unable to comprehend my posts, not a problem however.

Best.

Read T_Dog's postings #409 and #415 and then you should think about the reliability of the fire maps and your own theory. That are only 2 examples, but there are more.

Your reaction to my posting is the typical answer of somebody who wouldn't like to reply to my questions about the reliability of your theory. May I repeat them?

- Is the view on the (somewhat questionable) fire maps a reliable argument?

- Do you have some dead-sure details or datas about the incoming smoke different from your personal theory ?

- Don't you see any immediate connection between the fires photographed and noticed by some visa members ( i.e.. T_Dog #355, John Clarc #346) and the level of high pollution numbers at the same day? On all those days the pollution stems from the fires here in Thailand and not from anywhere else.

- Do you believe that the wind is blowing only in one direction = into Thailand? Following your dubious theory the wind blows the smog into western direction if coming from Vietnam, blowing into the southern direction when coming from the Nothern Thai-Laos borderline and at the same time blowing into the western direction if stemming from southern Laos? Then we have the Myanmar wind. Your theory says, the wind is blowing= carrying the smoke eastwards and at the same time from the North to Thailand.

P2:

1) How can the NASA fire maps possibly be questionable!

2) "On all those days the pollution stems from the fires here in Thailand and not from anywhere else", Really? Proof please.

3) As for the rest of it, please read my recent posts for the answers.

[valdor]

People here always blame the fires but forget to remember that a lot of the street level pollution comes from the terribly low quality cars, trucks and bikes the locals drive. In China to reduce the air pollution problem in some cities they banned all motorbikes and old cars/trucks from every road. That's what they have to do here, no more motorbikes and old cars/trucks.

[T_Dog]

chiang mai..... One of the big factors the Chiang Mai area has going against it is that it is surrounded by mountains. Inversion layers form and trap the smoke in the basin. This is a common problem in mountainous areas, and that is why you can drive up to the higher heights and find perfectly clear air. The inversion layers can be very distinct from an aircraft.

[chiang mai]

chiang mai..... One of the big factors the Chiang Mai area has going against it is that it is surrounded by mountains. Inversion layers form and trap the smoke in the basin. This is a common problem in mountainous areas, and that is why you can drive up to the higher heights and find perfectly clear air. The inversion layers can be very distinct from an aircraft.

I accept that CM has a well documented inversion issue but all that does is to trap the pollution, nothing more.

[Mapguy]

A couple of observations follow on the ongoing discussion, but first I simply want to thank some newcomers this year, especially, who have provided some valuable contributions. I've been following the problem since 2007, and often I wish that we had some "data bank" in which to save some of the valuable contributions and resources (descriptive, historical, statistical, analytical), especially for alarmed newbies, that have been posted covering most aspects of the problem over the past seven years. Alas, that is not the nature of forums like this. So, that said:

Where does the smoke come from?

All of agricultural SE Asia suffers at this pre-planting time of year. Particulate matter (PM) does travel, sometimes considerable distances. The smaller the particle, the further it will travel, but key questions remain unanswered: How high does PM<2.5 rise? How far does it travel before it finally falls to ground? In what direction does it travel? Heavy PM, like road dust, doesn't rise too high and settles rapidly and locally, for the most part. PM<2.5 is different: it goes higher and travels further. But where ?!

How high? Nobody here, I believe, has yet to give us any substantive information about high high PM<2.5 rises. That requires a meteorologist with his air balloons and more than a few smoke machines. We do know, however, that, regionally, if you report from Doi Inthanon, for example, that there is a seasonal dome of pollution over the general Chiang Mai basin. The dome is due to the geomorphology of the valley trapping rising air under seasonal high pressure lids. The fundamental indication is that we are basically suffering in our own atmospheric latrine.

How far? No one is definite about how far PM<2.5 travels. I wonder if there is sufficient study of this, but there is clearly some (to me, commonsensical) observation as by T_dog noted above about visibility. The indication is that, fundamentally, we are wallowing in our own sh#it. Never mind Myanmar, even Mae Hong Son (which has much narrower valley structure, by the way).

In what direction? The prevailing winds during the seasonal burning period are predominantly SW, the seasonal monsoon. Global wind patterns change significantly with latitude as well as seasonally. Considering that, then we can suggest that Myanmar could be the source of some particulate matter we breathe. It gets neighbors to the East and North off the hook, especially China. A basic knowledge of wind patterns will show you that the abominable Chinese industrial pollution, basically concentrated in the north, is fundamentally a problem for Japan, not SE Asia. (By the way, there was a news report today that of the 70+ Chinese cities measured by the Chinese government last year, only three met national air pollution standards. One was Lhasa !!!!! Now, that's a surprise !!!)

Standards and Reliability of Measurements:

Standards vary and are an exercise in risk analysis. They generally reflect scientific consensus on what is socially and economically tolerable. To bash Thailand on its standards relative to more economically-devloped areas is not appreciating the whole problem. And, even in some areas with advanced economies there are persistent problems, some of which are referred to above. Some of these problems become political. For example, some areas of Central California still permit agricultural burning albeit not on the scale we are familiar with here! And, to me at least, it is clear that there are local political as well as economic problems to surmount in Chiang Mai's valley.

Reliability of Measurement? There's no real reason to criticize the accuracy of measurements (which a lot of us have been monitoring for years), or suggest a conspiracy to deny that the air stinks. The Thai government has a limited number of measuring stations. There are only two in the province of Chiang Mai, a very large area. That's a problem, of course, but more stations probably would only make the self-evident obvious.

All in all, there are many questions that "science" (educated inquiry) simply has not been able to answer (or funded to investigate). Nor are pages and pages of statistical data on regional or local air pollution very useful. What we know is not always attributable to what the scientific method is able to provide. This is not to encourage a Neanderthalic view of the world, but to suggest that "common sense" makes sense a lot of the time. Your nose usually knows when the local conditions are unbearable. Get some air conditioner Flitrete or air purifier, if you can afford one (Most people can't.) . Hunker down --- and for "smoke bunnies" who head for the beach, okay, that's fine, but please appreciate that most people can't manage that. Or move to Tuvalu! Not many malls, but, what the hey, clean air!

[chiang mai]

I've been checking the wind map I posted in post 422 and it makes interesting reading. The map updates regularly hence the pictures changes in the course of a 24 hour period, what seems to be consistent however is the wind pattern is nearly always from the SW all the way into Laos, which seems to bear the brunt of the accumulated pollution from Myanmar and Thailand - I can't imagine how bad the pollution levels must be there, it must be dire.

[John Clarke]

The air is thick with smoke, I think I will choke, in some places you just cannot see......

Sent from my GT-P5110 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Somtamme]

What is evident here from this blog is a presumption that the Thai authorities are not carrying out their public health duties as would be the case in more developed countries. From my observations on the air quality data available, this is not the case. There are continuous analysers monitoring the pollutants albeit not the reference ones, and it is apparent from these results there is a problem from small particulate matter. Continuous analyses actually under report PM10. Also, it should be recognised that at times poor air dispersion and inversion of air will at times compound a problem in known locations.

Part of the solution is to raise public awareness of the health impacts in these areas. During periods of high pollution episodes there is normally more admissions to hospital for the treatment of both respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and symptoms amongst patients suffering from asthma. There is also evidence that it reduces life expectancy for everyone exposed to this pollution. For every 10 or 20 ug/m3 reduction in PM10 will bring with it a significant improvement to these impacts and reduce the health costs to society. These are important messages to make even to the extent of writing to American, British embassy's etc. Request copy of this province's action plan and ask what is being done and by whom to achieve these reductions.

[John Clarke]

Quick with a joke, and to light up a smoke, there is some place I'd rather be.....

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[MESmith]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

[chiang mai]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

How sad it that! Indeed, I missed it, it's pretty damning I reckon.

[John Clarke]

As said before, we are in Pai, each night we see fires in the forest, lit by farmers. Late last week, we had gale force winds for about 40 minutes. I watched from my balcony the fires grow fierce, and 2 green water trucks driving into the forest, as the fires were heading to the humble farmers homes. I took a short drive and witnessed the mums, children and the elderly watching with horror as they feared they would lose all. It reminded me of Australia, however fortunate the trees were not

Sent from my GT-P5110 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[John Clarke]

Eucalypts

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[T_Dog]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

That is unreal! Not a single arrest for burning has been made, but hey everyone, take off those masks as it looks bad. Prediction for 2015: Another long TV thread, more banners, maybe some water sprayed into the air, a lot more sick people, no action or enforcement, and the same chunky crappy air.

[Tywais]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

That is unreal! Not a single arrest for burning has been made, but hey everyone, take off those masks as it looks bad. Prediction for 2015: Another long TV thread, more banners, maybe some water sprayed into the air, a lot more sick people, no action or enforcement, and the same chunky crappy air.

Yep. This is the 3rd year I started this topic and the same trend. Sadly, I did a search through the Chiang Mai forum of the Thaivisa archives a while back and found the same exact noises and issues were being made back in 2004. From a governor's statement, to saying laws are going to be enforced to dropping water to put out fires. I could put those posts from 2004/2005 in the 2015 smoke topic and they would undoubtedly be spot on.

[CNXBKKMAN]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

That is unreal! Not a single arrest for burning has been made, but hey everyone, take off those masks as it looks bad. Prediction for 2015: Another long TV thread, more banners, maybe some water sprayed into the air, a lot more sick people, no action or enforcement, and the same chunky crappy air.

I think you can copy and paste this years posts and drop them into 2015, it will be the same. I don't see any improvements in the future. Could get worse as well .

[T_Dog]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

That is unreal! Not a single arrest for burning has been made, but hey everyone, take off those masks as it looks bad. Prediction for 2015: Another long TV thread, more banners, maybe some water sprayed into the air, a lot more sick people, no action or enforcement, and the same chunky crappy air.

Yep. This is the 3rd year I started this topic and the same trend. Sadly, I did a search through the Chiang Mai forum of the Thaivisa archives a while back and found the same exact noises and issues were being made back in 2004. From a governor's statement, to saying laws are going to be enforced to dropping water to put out fires. I could put those posts from 2004/2005 in the 2015 smoke topic and they would undoubtedly be spot on.

That is correct, and there seems to be less action being taken now than back in 2007-2008. Back then, the public health department made announcements via speaker trucks and the local community loud speaker systems sent health warnings about the dangers of burning and smoke. None of that seems to be happening now or I have just missed them.

edit: A big success back then was the banning of burning within the city of Chiang Mai by the mayor. Was always a pain to wake up with the local restaurants burning their garbage every morning, but you don't see that in the city anymore. Small steps of progress back then.

Edited March 29, 2014 by T_Dog

[Tywais]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

That is unreal! Not a single arrest for burning has been made, but hey everyone, take off those masks as it looks bad. Prediction for 2015: Another long TV thread, more banners, maybe some water sprayed into the air, a lot more sick people, no action or enforcement, and the same chunky crappy air.

Yep. This is the 3rd year I started this topic and the same trend. Sadly, I did a search through the Chiang Mai forum of the Thaivisa archives a while back and found the same exact noises and issues were being made back in 2004. From a governor's statement, to saying laws are going to be enforced to dropping water to put out fires. I could put those posts from 2004/2005 in the 2015 smoke topic and they would undoubtedly be spot on.

Back then, the public health department made announcements via speaker trucks and the local community loud speaker systems sent health warnings about the dangers of burning and smoke. None of that seems to be happening now or I have just missed them.

The current governor probably has banned it, doesn't want the publicity.

[mrmillersr]

Starting off to be another real bad one for you. PM10 levels at Wittayalai school were 186 at 7am, 254 at 8am , 333 at 9am and 244 at 10am.

Doing 24 hour averages beginning at 9am, the hourly averages for PM 10 levels on the 26th were 137, on the 27th were 174, on the 28th 147 and on the 29th 133.

Below is a link to a study that was done 15 years ago on PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels in CM. It was noted back then that high levels of PM 2.5 were found from December to April. While it is the current PM 10 levels that you can see on different sites , it is the more dangerous PM 2.5 levels that you should be more concerned about.

Unfortunately for those who choose to live in CM, there is no short term period to avoid as this deadly pollution can occur over a period of 4 to 5 months in any given year. But you won't read any of this in the travel brochures now will you?

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12160897

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

411 pm #'s

That's China grade pollution.

Who says Thailand can't compete with the big boys?

http://www.aqmthai.com/public_report.php

[Tywais]

411 pm #'s

That's China grade pollution.

Who says Thailand can't compete with the big boys?

http://www.aqmthai.com/public_report.php

Very sharp jump. Wonder what the cause was to create such a sharp spike?

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

There may be something funky about that measurement.

Using the visibility test of looking at the mountains, It seems like it should be lower.

Maybe a homeboy fired up a leaf blower by the sensor?

[Tywais]

March 30, 2014 Firemap snapshot. Shows a pretty significant reduction in fires directly around CM.

[dave2]

re

Using the visibility test of looking at the mountains,

this is what you would have seen of doi suthep at 9 am this morning

dave2

[khwaibah]

re

Using the visibility test of looking at the mountains,

this is what you would have seen of doi suthep at 9 am this morning

dave2

Not good but have seen worse.

[T_Dog]

We had 600 meter visibility here this morning but the afternoon winds blew in hard today. Visibility got to 20 km plus with gloriously good air by 4 PM. Saw a few good sized fires up in the mountains west of us today so the smoke will likely fill in during the night as seems to be the pattern this year.

[Mapguy]

March 30, 2014 Firemap snapshot. Shows a pretty significant reduction in fires directly around CM.

March 30 2014 Overlay.jpg

No doubt about this --- although that is not to say that there still aren't, in particular, a lot of forest fires. Recent satellite reports indicate a lot less blazes in the past three days. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean the smoke disappears until the straw is burnt, the "mushroom fires" abate, the high pressure lid moves on and broad areal rain arrives. Surprise! That is true every year!

I stopped doing serious mapping about ten days ago of the satellite reports for the immediate Doi Suthep-Pui (radius of 15km) that I receive. Too much work! The patterns were clear without a lot of mapping: a LOT more forest burning, and the impact on the PCD PM<10 readings daily that followed reflected the huge spike (lasting a few days last week) in forest blazes. (Note: the satellite sightings are never complete because of the nature of satellite monitoring, but the eyes in the sky certainly pick up trends (not including the leaf trash your neighbors might still be burning).

[Mapguy]

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=3565

for those who didn't notice Vagabond's cryptic thread

That is unreal! Not a single arrest for burning has been made, but hey everyone, take off those masks as it looks bad. Prediction for 2015: Another long TV thread, more banners, maybe some water sprayed into the air, a lot more sick people, no action or enforcement, and the same chunky crappy air.

Yep. This is the 3rd year I started this topic and the same trend. Sadly, I did a search through the Chiang Mai forum of the Thaivisa archives a while back and found the same exact noises and issues were being made back in 2004. From a governor's statement, to saying laws are going to be enforced to dropping water to put out fires. I could put those posts from 2004/2005 in the 2015 smoke topic and they would undoubtedly be spot on.

Yep, indeed!

And I wish the newcomers to Chiang Mai would take the time to review some of those comments and research posted in previous years although that would be a real slog. There is really nothing new to report this year, but newcomers might begin to appreciate that there is much more posted than incidental local comments and opinions, such as research (local, included) and some things understood about the political and socio-economic nature of the problem.

In the meantime --- if I may be allowed to vent a little...

It is difficult to believe how foolish in public relations skills the new governor is. The last one, a very competent man, was still silly enough to climb on top of a fire engine ladder and spray a city street for the cameras. Maybe it is the governor's public relations staff which should be transferred (of fired!), not the governors!

Launching a couple of light "rain-making" aircraft seeding the atmosphere with questionable effect in the best of conditions has been bad enough. There is considerable science plus many practical reports (if you care to search for them) about the futility of that except under limited atmospheric circumstances. At least (if you read carefully), those who are part of the Thai rainmaking squadron quietly (for reasons we need not get into here) admit that if there is insufficient humidity, they are ineffective and that such efforts are only really successful in very local conditions. Now --- OMG! --- someone came up with the idea of drizzling over the city to dampen down the pollution !! Bring on the clowns !!!! At least over my garden, please, so I would not have to water so much!

Then, this year, there is a new wrinkle! The PM herself showed up in Chiang Mai to chair a meeting about abating air pollution! Now, had she launched a rice subsidy program on the condition that recipients would get paid IF they did not burn previous crop refuse (and include corn formers, too) then we might be talking about something sensible, or at least approaching a solution to two problems, not just one very flawed and highly-suspect solution of an agricultural support problem.

By the way, such programs exist in great degree in just about every country on the planet, and most certainly in Europe and North America. Check out your own "home country" agricultural support programs. Why are farmers so important? Well, that is a long story, but for your amusement, you can Google a very recent news story about shepherds leading their sheep into the Louvre in Paris! Really!!! No joke. There are even video clips! Farmers may castrate most of their cattle, but they sure have balls!

Okay, okay. Taking a deep breath (figuratively)...

We are dealing with a complex socio-economic problem here with political overtones.

In a post above someone talked about a local political official who would not report his neighbors burning (that is, those who voted for him) in order to keep his post, we begin to get into some of the grass-roots problems of enforcement. Another approach might be to delegate to the military (who claim a very general responsibility for national security) to ensure national public health security by arresting and charging the miscreants of burning. Start with property owners. You wouldn't have to arrest too many to get the point across. But, some economic incentive has to be created to effect change. My comment above about the rice subsidy problem is not really a joke.

Regarding the "cultural tradition" of burning, "culture" is a very loosey-goosey term to use. The problem is basically economic. Not all Thais do burn crop refuse, but the plowing alternative (although agronomically better, as even the PCD has pointed out for years) is expensive, especially for small holders.

And that isn't the whole picture, friends, but as usual, I have talked too long. So, back to eyeballing Doi Suthep!