A Suthep dilemma: what if the govt plays soft?

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
A Suthep dilemma: what if the govt plays soft?
ATTAYUTH BOOTSRIPOOM
THE NATION

BANGKOK: -- THE PLANNED "shutdown" of Bangkok as announced by People's Democratic Reform Committee (PRDC) secretary general Suthep Thaugsuban is drawing near.

It has created widespread concern because it's clear there are many people willing to follow Suthep, and the spreading of the occupation to numerous spots around the city could be a high risk.

The announcement of a plan to set up big rally stages mostly in the heart of Bangkok - at the Government Complex at Chaengwattana, Ladprao intersection, Victory Monument, Rajthevi intersection, Asoke intersection and Ratchaprasong intersection - would be enough to paralyse Bangkok traffic.

The announcement that people near any such spot could also join in the demonstration is also worrisome because the chance of a confrontation between those who support and oppose the PDRC is real. The risks of resistance to the PDRC could be classified as both low and high.

Minimum risk would be to hold placards expressing dissatisfaction regarding the shutdown of Bangkok and its adverse impacts. High risk would be violent confrontation that would lead to chaos at various centres around the capital.

The latter scenario is not what caretaker PM Yingluck Shinawatra wants because violent clashes would open the door to the so-called "outside the system" power, namely the military, to intervene. That's why we have been seeing a very compromising role played by the government with its willingness to take a step back on several fronts, which includes forbidding pro-government red shirts from showing force to avoid risk.

Nevertheless, the big question for the PDRC is what it would do if the government played soft on Monday and avoided all forms of confrontation - because the longer it kept Bangkok shut, the fewer supporters and less support there would be.

Let us not forget that the main support base for the PDRC is in Bangkok. While protesters may feel they're having fun, satisfied and even emboldened by the shutdown, the longer it drags on, the more dissatisfaction it will create, and the more they will distance themselves from the PDRC.

But what will the PDRC do if the game drags on while the government is focused on the February 2 election? Although the election may lead to less than 95 per cent of MPs being elected, the Parliament can still be convened and the government will likely maintain its power. These factors will play against the PDRC.

Given such a scenario, the PDRC may speed up its game to thwart the election. There are not that many choices and they include pushing the protesters to areas that are high-risk for violent confrontation in order to call the military out. Let us not forget that it would not be a nice ending and there are many people who would not accept the power of the coup.

There's no certainty of a happy-ending scenario. If all sides, particularly the PDRC, opened their hearts to a true negotiation and reduced the PDRC's impossible pre-conditions - such as insisting on a "people's revolution" or the setting up of a "People's Council", and directing its demands towards the creation of a national reform council in a way that is acceptable to both parties - then there's hope, however.

The Election Commission (EC) could then try to find a legal solution and the Kingdom could hold an election jointly with reform.

Moves in the days ahead by both the government and the PDRC will determine whether Thailand will find a way out or will be trapped in darkness for a very long time.


-- The Nation 2014-01-09

[EricBerg]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

[Cricketnut]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

[noitom]

The Thai military - "outside the system?" The Thai military is very much in the core of Thailand and its politics. One need only look at Thailand's history since 1932 to know that. The Thai military may have an opportunity to top 1976 and and 1992 Bangkok slaughters with this upcoming shutdown. A next slaughter in Bangkok would be outdone only by the Thai south slaughter of 6,000 killings and tens of thousands injured and maimed over the last ten years.

[Yunla]

Suthep is more than capable of taking this movement into oblivion all by himself, if you just give him time. Outside of the damage caused to human life and the economy, which have both already been far too high, there is the big problem of the unelected Assembly, which is a giant leap backwards for Democracy. The further he goes down this road, the worse he will look internationally and also to common-sense Thai people. Not to mention the eventual agrarian worker backlash, the Nature's Wrath, should their elected Party be toppled by this communist-junta type of deal.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Yunla

[Thailand]

The obvious danger is that the ever present third party elements will do the necessary and achieve Sutheps objective of outright confrontation with the caretaker govt and bring in the military. The only play he has left.

If the gov and the "reds" play it cool, stay out of it and let the old fool stew in his own juice then maybe, just maybe it will end peacefully. Suthep may well end up deeply regretting not having the shutdown much closer to the proposed Election Day.

[Mampara]

A bit overboard, but ok!

[Mosha]

After the 15th the farmers will be back, so if the government okays it soft he can wait/

[JohnP1752]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

[khunsiam]

let's not forget the army is divided, don't expect the "watermelons" to support a coup.

[DocN]

So what if they do?

Airports, BTS, water & electricity...there are endless possibilities to push this thing further and further and further!

...and I absolutely 100% think, he will!

[Spalpeen]

PTP and the reds are just too smart for Suthep and his backers. They desperately want the reds to come out and engage in street riots to give the army a target and an excuse. All the reds have to do now is sit tight and let Suthep turn Bangkok against him with his childish antics. You can already see that the wind has gone from Sutheps sails and he's floundering around trying to keep his campaign alive. Roll on the election and the restoration of an elected government.

[mojorison]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

I kind of agree, but it's surely the yellows in the dead end. This is their final play.(which will fail).They don't have the numbers. Simple.

[metisdead]

A post in violation of fair use policy has been removed. It is generally accepted, but not written into law, that quoting the first two or three sentences of an article and giving a link to the source is considered “fair use” and not a violation of copyright.

[gerry1011]

Suthep needs violence to achieve his dirty goal of overthrowing democracy.

His problem is that the government does not react to his provocations, and that the police keeps away, avoiding contact with the yellow thugs as much as possible.

The reds, very wisely, stay away from bangkok...

Till now, all those who support democracy and the elected government have played very smart.

What a dilemma for Suthep, who never stop barking and spit his hate.

His opponents don't want confrontation.

What to do?

What is very well possible is that violence will happen with the displeased Bangkokians themselves, who just can't accept that their lives are hijacked by a group of yellow extremists.

Since Suthep believes that those who are not with him are against him, he must certainly hope that at least some people will confront him. This could be his chance to finally get the bloodshed he is awaiting since the beginning...

Then the usual would happen, blame the government, the police, the reds,... and call for a coup.

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[spirit47]

The stubborness of the Taksin Regime plays in the hands of the PDRC. Anybody think that the army let them lead the country from a "Bunker" in Chiang Mai? They must play softly, if they not want to flee the country. The PDRC will stop the Government working and that was it for the first goal. More interesting is the question about filling the political vacuum, and the constitution of a "Reform Council". The people of the whole country must be involved, I hope the PDRC is aware about this. It would be better, if the people can manage this with help from the army, but without a military coup...

[Thailand]

The stubborness of the Taksin Regime plays in the hands of the PDRC. Anybody think that the army let them lead the country from a "Bunker" in Chiang Mai? They must play softly, if they not want to flee the country. The PDRC will stop the Government working and that was it for the first goal. More interesting is the question about filling the political vacuum, and the constitution of a "Reform Council". The people of the whole country must be involved, I hope the PDRC is aware about this. It would be better, if the people can manage this with help from the army, but without a military coup...

Brilliantly astute observations.

[kimamey]

PTP and the reds are just too smart for Suthep and his backers. They desperately want the reds to come out and engage in street riots to give the army a target and an excuse. All the reds have to do now is sit tight and let Suthep turn Bangkok against him with his childish antics. You can already see that the wind has gone from Sutheps sails and he's floundering around trying to keep his campaign alive. Roll on the election and the restoration of an elected government.

An elected government without Thaksin controlling it? That would work if it were possible.

I think they're scared as well. Abhisit tried the soft approach to start with and they are right to do the same. If they send in the army and people get killed, even if they aren't following ROE then logic says that they should face murder charges the same as Abhisit and Suthep. It's possible that this is Suthep's thinking as well.

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Edited January 9, 2014 by kimamey

[bunny11kk]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

Wow, you know everything! crap!

[Mr Yim]

The stubborness of the Taksin Regime plays in the hands of the PDRC. Anybody think that the army let them lead the country from a "Bunker" in Chiang Mai? They must play softly, if they not want to flee the country. The PDRC will stop the Government working and that was it for the first goal. More interesting is the question about filling the political vacuum, and the constitution of a "Reform Council". The people of the whole country must be involved, I hope the PDRC is aware about this. It would be better, if the people can manage this with help from the army, but without a military coup...

Brilliantly astute observations.

And therein lies the problem. . . "I hope the PDRC is aware about this"

I would add, even it they are aware, would they include the people of the whole country in reform? I think most people believe the answer to that would be a resounding big, fat NO.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mr Yim

[johnmarhall]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

the last 3 letters of your name says it all

[toybits]

This is as much a test of where the Military's loyalty lies. Are they protecting their own skin or the greater good of the Thai people? Which horse are they going to back. To me, crunch time comes on the 13th of January 2014 and they will have to decide which direction they will take. The military cannot antagonize the majority - or it could but with incalculable consequences to the Kingdom.

[DocN]

The stubborness of the Taksin Regime plays in the hands of the PDRC. Anybody think that the army let them lead the country from a "Bunker" in Chiang Mai? They must play softly, if they not want to flee the country. The PDRC will stop the Government working and that was it for the first goal. More interesting is the question about filling the political vacuum, and the constitution of a "Reform Council". The people of the whole country must be involved, I hope the PDRC is aware about this. It would be better, if the people can manage this with help from the army, but without a military coup...

Brilliantly astute observations.

And therein lies the problem. . . "I hope the PDRC is aware about this"

I would add, even it they are aware, would they include the people of the whole country in reform? I think most people believe the answer to that would be a resounding big, fat NO.

Oh, I am sure, they are aware.

If only that would be their goal...

[smutcakes]

What the military should do behind the scenes is tell Suthep to go home as he is leading the country down a road to nowhere and putting the military in an incredibly difficult situation, and tell TS/YS they have 6 months to sort their shit out asap, run the country openly and transparently, cut down and prosecute corruption and generally run the country in a proper responsible way or they will come in behind the scenes or out in the open and cull them, their associates etc out of politics for good. Take it or leave it choice.

[tingtongteesood]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

LOTS of complete bs here. You must be an avid reader of Voice Of Thaksin.....

[catmac]

Judging by the replies from a couple of the Suthep-huggers in this thread, I would surmise that they already know that the Old Fool has run out of steam. If only YS can keep everything calm, he will eventually end up screaming his nonsense drivel about the peoples' revolution to an empty space.

On the other hand, however, maybe he really does intend to shut down the Airport, the internet, etc., etc., as that whiteboard showed. I don't believe a word of his denials. He certainly has enough "student" thugs raring for a good old punch-up to achieve that.

[Old Man River]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

When will the RS's get tired of playing Thaksin's puppets? When will the RS's throw him out and begin negotiating for the people in the northeast by themselves? When will they become a viable political party on their own accord?

Until that happens, democracy won't work in Thailand. It will continue to be proxy governments, possibly (allegedly?) taking money meant for the RS's constituents and leaving people like the poor farmers, to deal with moneylenders, because money that should be available to pay them isn't.

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[smutcakes]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

When will the RS's get tired of playing Thaksin's puppets? When will the RS's throw him out and begin negotiating for the people in the northeast by themselves? When will they become a viable political party on their own accord?

Until that happens, democracy won't work in Thailand. It will continue to be proxy governments, possibly (allegedly?) taking money meant for the RS's constituents and leaving people like the poor farmers, to deal with moneylenders, because money that should be available to pay them isn't.

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When will the yellow shirts get tired of being Suthep's puppets?

[JohnP1752]

The army will act for the demonstrators, most likely by providing weapons to attack the police if required. I doubt they would step in unless its to take control, as in a coup. The whole point is that the PDRC wants violence and chaos to achieve its goal to take over Thailand.

Wow, you know everything! crap!

Give us your insights then, instead of a PDRC style reply.

[Old Man River]

If the government plays it soft - which i do not think they can - then Suthep will keep pushing untill the army does something. It's very well possible that Suthep already negotiated the different scenarios with the military. The reds are in a dead end street.

Hmm, so far they have been relatively restrained. Yingluck has played her cards rather well thus far and I cant see a coup happening. If the Police pullback and let them go for their lives in blowing whistles who cares. If anyone is going to provoke violence it will I imagine come from the PDRC, if this occurs then the Army (and mark my words) will get involved and stop the protestors. There are bigger players then whom we think are involved here. The Army must protect the Police if violence is started by the PDRC, thus avoiding a coup. Suthep is the guy going down a dead end street and remember this post if what I have stated is not correct. Thailand cannot afford another coup and nor will it happen if the reds maintain their distance. I think the government will be as soft as possible to negate any coup and keep the generals out of the picture. Yingluck and her advisors have seen this all play out before, doesnt it seem ironic that the reds are not in town.... speak up anyone....

When will the RS's get tired of playing Thaksin's puppets? When will the RS's throw him out and begin negotiating for the people in the northeast by themselves? When will they become a viable political party on their own accord?

Until that happens, democracy won't work in Thailand. It will continue to be proxy governments, possibly (allegedly?) taking money meant for the RS's constituents and leaving people like the poor farmers, to deal with moneylenders, because money that should be available to pay them isn't.

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When will the yellow shirts get tired of being Suthep's puppets?

The yellow shirts are here in Thailand, not hiding out in London. They are part of the current situation and support Suthep, not because of financial needs, but because of ideology. The RS need Thaksin's financial support. If you think the RS's support Thaksin based on ideology, then you are clueless.

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