Thai Baht Loses Value

[Firefan]

Ups -sorry mate!

$750.000! Congrats! (but that is still only 6 figures...) Cheers!

7 figs in 18 months 750k Year to dat e (sub 6 months)..

Helps to read..

[rainman]

I got scared and decided to transfer half my US $$ to thailand right as the THB hit 37.6

It if goes back up to 40 i'm gonna cry :'(

get your paper tissues ready ...why would you sell half of your USD when the exchange rate is bad?

[britmaveric]

I got scared and decided to transfer half my US $$ to thailand right as the THB hit 37.6

It if goes back up to 40 i'm gonna cry :'(

get your paper tissues ready ...why would you sell half of your USD when the exchange rate is bad?

He wagered it would get worse I suspect.

[Upcountry]

Well, with Mr. T back in the saddle again, I wouldn't be surprised if the Baht gets stronger. Remember how it held earlier in the crisis as foreign investors seemed to think he was doing a good job, or something like that?

Now I wonder if waiting for closer to 40 would be a mistake.

[rainman]

Now I wonder if waiting for closer to 40 would be a mistake.

one day it will surely be back to 40 ...now if you live to see that day is another thing, though. seriously, i'm thinking it'll slowly go back to to 40 over the next 2 months, then hover somewhere around 41.

[britmaveric]

40-42 range by next month

[susah_sih]

Thai Baht is going to slide to Bt39.50/USD according to ABN Amro, Shahab Jalinoos. At any rate, Thai Baht is not a currency where one should put his/her savings, as the Central bank is working to make the currency weaken to have a competitive exports. Thailand is already having difficulty selling its rice with the strong baht.

Asian Currencies Set for Losing Month as Investors Shun Assets

2006-05-30 22:39 (New York)

By Christina Soon

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippine peso and Thailand's baht were poised for losses this month after global investors dumped Asian stocks on concern the potential for higher U.S.

interest rates will curb demand for the region's goods.

Speculation the Federal Reserve will keep raising its key rate may reduce U.S. demand for Asian exports, which account for about half of gross domestic product, slowing profits in Philippine and Thai companies.

``Foreigners are selling Asian assets sizably because of the global risk-aversion story, which clearly puts pressure on Asian currencies,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, head of Asian currency strategy at ABN Amro Bank NV in Singapore. ``That story continues. The signs are still negative.''

The Philippine peso this month dropped 2 percent to 52.84 against the dollar as of 10:25 a.m. Manila time, its largest decline since June, according to the Bankers Association of the Philippines. The baht in May fell 1.7 percent to 38.15 and Indonesia's rupiah slid 4.8 percent to 9,227.

Overseas fund managers sold a net 33 billion baht ($865 million) of Thai equities this month through yesterday after net purchases in April. In the Philippines, the five days of net selling through May 24 was the longest streak in more than two months, according to stock exchange figures.

Fed Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow yesterday said in an interview on CNBC that recent consumer-price data show inflation is at the ``upper end'' of his preferred range, and he would like to see it lower.

The Fed has boosted the fed funds target rate 16 consecutive times in two years, to 5 percent from 1 percent, to help contain inflation.

`Opposite Direction'

In the Philippines, Finance Secretary Gary Teves on may 26 said a rising currency may hurt exporters, but ``an improving peso'' will help lower the costs of debt repayments.

``The Philippine central bank will let the peso move along with the regional currencies,'' said Rafael Algarra, senior vice president and head of treasury at Security Bank Corp. in Manila.

``The only time I would expect the central bank to consider taking some action on the currency is when the peso is moving in the opposite direction of other currencies.''

Investors may also shun the currencies of countries where central banks may not arrest the slide, ABN Amro's Jalinoos said. Thailand's central bank Governor Pridiyathorn Devakula said on May 15 that the weakening baht is ``good news'' for the Thai economy. The baht will probably fall to 39.50 in a month, Jalinoos said.

`Central Bank Support'

By contrast, the Singapore dollar was set for a sixth winning month on speculation the central bank will keep pursuing currency gains to tame inflation. It rose 0.4 percent this month

to S$1.5774.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore on April 11 kept its policy of seeking a ``gradual appreciation.'' The central bank aims to prevent its dollar rising or falling beyond an undisclosed band based on a basket of currencies of its biggest trading partners.

``We favor the currencies where there may be some degree of central bank support, like the Singapore dollar,'' Jalinoos said. Financial markets were closed in South Korea and Taiwan.

[topfield]

THE BAHT IN FACT IS STRONG...STRONGER THAN IN MANY YEARS . ITS NOW NEAR 38 BUT HAS BEEN IN THE 41-43 RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS.

THERE IS ANOTHER " LOCAL" FACTOR CALLED IN THAI NA-GOO OR LOSS OF FACE !

TANONG PITTAYA WHOSE REAL NAME IS LAMYAI THE FINANCE MINISTER CHOSEN BY TAKSIN PERSONALLY AS ITS HIS MATE , THE MAN WHO DEVALUED THE BAHT IN 97 AND RUMOURED TO BE THE ONE WHO SPILLED THE BEANS A WEEK BEFORE ENABLING CERTAIN BUSINESS MEN THEN IN H.K FOR THE HANDOVER MAKE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS , TOLD THE PRESS HE WAS AIMING AT A RATE OF 38 BUT WOULD ALLOW A LITTLE LEEWAY OF 50 STANG EITHER SIDE .

THE SAME EVENING THE BAHT WEAKENED IN NEW YORK TO 38.60 !! GUESS WHAT HAPPENED AT 8.20 THE FOLLOING MORNING...WITH ONE BIG BAHT PURCHASE WHICH CAN ONLY HAVE COME FROM THE BOT , THE BAHT SHOT UP 40 STANG !!! THE GRAPH THAT MORNING SHOWS A VERTICAL LINE AT 8.20 !! CLEARLY LAMYAI WAS KEEN NOT TO LOSE FACE SO ORDERED THE BOT GOVERNOR TO INTERVENE AGRESSIVELY TO DRIVE THE BAHT BACK UP.

[cclub75]

Very interesting.

Another possibility : the BOT prepares the way to... a no increase of interest rates next week (meeting of 7 june). Like a signal.

The political pressure seems enormous. Thaksin must continue to "pump up" money into the system like crazy before the elections. He needs growth, and stability regarding the exhange rate.

And of course, if it's true (the pressures), the BOT can not be seen as an "independant institution".

I bet 20 THB that the BOT will do nothing next week. And they say to the market : "don't play, I want to keep the THB around 38, even if I freeze my interest rate next week".

THE BAHT IN FACT IS STRONG...STRONGER THAN IN MANY YEARS . ITS NOW NEAR 38 BUT HAS BEEN IN THE 41-43 RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS.

THERE IS ANOTHER " LOCAL" FACTOR CALLED IN THAI NA-GOO OR LOSS OF FACE !

TANONG PITTAYA WHOSE REAL NAME IS LAMYAI THE FINANCE MINISTER CHOSEN BY TAKSIN PERSONALLY AS ITS HIS MATE , THE MAN WHO DEVALUED THE BAHT IN 97 AND RUMOURED TO BE THE ONE WHO SPILLED THE BEANS A WEEK BEFORE ENABLING CERTAIN BUSINESS MEN THEN IN H.K FOR THE HANDOVER MAKE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS , TOLD THE PRESS HE WAS AIMING AT A RATE OF 38 BUT WOULD ALLOW A LITTLE LEEWAY OF 50 STANG EITHER SIDE .

THE SAME EVENING THE BAHT WEAKENED IN NEW YORK TO 38.60 !! GUESS WHAT HAPPENED AT 8.20 THE FOLLOING MORNING...WITH ONE BIG BAHT PURCHASE WHICH CAN ONLY HAVE COME FROM THE BOT , THE BAHT SHOT UP 40 STANG !!! THE GRAPH THAT MORNING SHOWS A VERTICAL LINE AT 8.20 !! CLEARLY LAMYAI WAS KEEN NOT TO LOSE FACE SO ORDERED THE BOT GOVERNOR TO INTERVENE AGRESSIVELY TO DRIVE THE BAHT BACK UP.

[susah_sih]

It's difficult to trust the Baht. Thailand's negative current account balance keeps on deteriorating, especially with the continous trade deficits due to oil imports. And Thailand is not the US, where many foreign (non US) entities/persons put their wealth in USD (IMF last report showed that 60% of the world's wealth was in the form of USD one way or another). In contrast, primary holders of Baht are those who reside in Bangkok and foreign hotmoney which trades on Thai stocks. At this time, the Baht is enjoying a free ride along the rise of other Asian currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Chinese Yuan, Korean Won, Japanese Yen, but sooner or later investors will see that these other Asian currencies have a true strong fundamental (huge surplus on the current account and trade balance), but not the Baht.

For a list of countries according to current account balance

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...r/2187rank.html

Edited May 31, 2006 by susah_sih

[oopapasan]

I just wonder at the AAA rating, with the US debt, deficit, and the Iranian bourse going EU, etc. ad infinitum.

Will a wind blow that will make the USD ugly no matter the rate margin, and topple the card house?

If the U.S. has problems the whole world is in trouble.The U.S. rules the economic world,and is the only country that can stand on it's own. They aren't the richest country in the world by accident.

[Meerkat]

If the U.S. has problems the whole world is in trouble.The U.S. rules the economic world,and is the only country that can stand on it's own. They aren't the richest country in the world by accident.

Er...we must be thinking about different USAs. The one I know about has a National Debt of over $8 trillion and is primarily funded by Asian governments - the largest of which is China.

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13048272/site/newsweek/

[LaoPo]

Thai Baht versus main currencies, June 2, 2006

Thai Baht

click on values to see graphs 1 THB in THB

American Dollar 0.0262674 38.07

Australian Dollar 0.0349766 28.5905

Brazilian Real 0.0600341 16.6572

British Pound 0.0139594 71.6364

Canadian Dollar 0.0288968 34.6059

Chinese Yuan 0.21073 4.7454

Danish Krone 0.151728 6.59072

Euro 0.0203434 49.156

Hong Kong Dollar 0.203785 4.90713

Indian Rupee 1.19963 0.833589

Japanese Yen 2.93302 0.340946

Malaysian Ringgit 0.0955871 10.4617

Mexican Peso 0.29803 3.35537

New Zealand Dollar 0.041648 24.0107

Norwegian Kroner 0.158148 6.32319

Singapore Dollar 0.0413239 24.1991

South African Rand 0.175296 5.70465

South Korean Won 24.8989 0.0401625

Sri Lanka Rupee 2.71263 0.368645

Swedish Krona 0.187591 5.33074

Swiss Franc 0.0317389 31.5071

Taiwan Dollar 0.841608 1.1882

Venezuelan Bolivar 56.3331 0.0177516

using values from Friday, June 02, 2006

source: X-rates

LaoPo

[backflip]

Don't you guys ever get tired of watching and worrying over every incremental movement of the THB exchange rate?

[LaoPo]

Don't you guys ever get tired of watching and worrying over every incremental movement of the THB exchange rate?

Of course not. I suppose you watch your own wallet as well, don't you?

LaoPo

[Sing_Sling]

If the U.S. has problems the whole world is in trouble.The U.S. rules the economic world,and is the only country that can stand on it's own. They aren't the richest country in the world by accident.

I seriously hope that was tongue-in-cheek.

[LaoPo]

If the U.S. has problems the whole world is in trouble.The U.S. rules the economic world,and is the only country that can stand on it's own. They aren't the richest country in the world by accident.

With the highest debts/deficit in the world, financed by the Japanese and Chinese, rising every day, for another 'war-on-terrorists'.....or is it OIL?

Poor America.

LaoPo

[Stefan Beck]

Gentlemen

Previous crashes were caused by many factors - one of them had to do with property. Will people (farangs) continue to invest in property (with legal or illegal luca) when there is such a feeling of unease?

Where dos the money go then - certainly not into the country

me