Conflicting parties are on a road to nowhere: Thai politics

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Conflicting parties are on a road to nowhere
Somroutai Sapsomboon

BANGKOK: -- While the nation is calling for a solution to the political crisis, which is having a severe impact, the parties directly involved in the conflict are facing a dead end.

The People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) continues to move ahead on its own path, although the PDRC leaders themselves do not know when or how they will reach their goal.

PDRC chief Suthep Thaugsuban announced he did not want the military to seize power but he wanted to carry out a people's revolution. He said if the people successfully staged a revolution then the people (actually the PDRC) would have power to rule the country.

He said orders given by the people would become laws that all sides must respect. However, since the caretaker government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra refuses to agree with what the PDRC is doing, how can it accept the PDRC's orders?

And how can orders that no one would obey - be orders?

Although the PDRC cannot win, it can still escalate its rallies to ramp up pressure on the government; and so it has carried out the operation to shut down Bangkok since Monday. However, the Bangkok shutdown operation has not cornered the government so far. As a result, Suthep has had to resort to threatening the capture of Yingluck and some of her Cabinet members.

Suthep said the goal of the Bangkok shutdown operation was to render the government as a failed government. He said he did not want to cause a failed state; he wanted to leave the government unable to run the country and become a lame-duck administration. His final goal is to pressure government officials to announce their stand to support the people. In particular, he wants the armed forces to declare that they side with the people to pressure the caretaker government to resign.

Meanwhile, the government still adheres to what it sees as the prescribed laws and will not give in to the PDRC's demands.

Actually, the government is using the laws as its shield so that it can remain in power as long as possible. Although in the latest move, the government appeared to leave the door to election postponement slightly open, it adhered to its own style that it would not initiate the postponement. Instead, it indicated it would try to go on buying time.

The Election Commission has proposed the government defer the election by enacting a new royal decree to set a new election date. However, the government insists that it cannot do so. The government argued that the EC itself has the authority to set a new election date because the EC is a co-executor of the House dissolution royal decree, which set the election date on February 2. The government also invited all sides to participate in a discussion on the delay proposal. But it turned out that most participants came from the group that supports the government's stand so the meeting did not lead to any change in the February 2 election.

The government realizes - like all others - that the February 2 election would be useless. Although the election can be held, the first House meeting will lack a quorum and cannot be conducted and the next government cannot be formed.

As a result, the best way is to defer the election. But the government would not step back and would not initiate an election delay apparently because it fears that if it issues a royal decree to defer the election, it may face a lawsuit later. And the government apparently believes that it has not been cornered yet and may still be able to contest the election.

"The February 2 election will not end the game but we will have an advantage. If the election is delayed, the game will not be over either but we will be at a disadvantage," a Pheu Thai source said, reflecting the government's attitude.

Actually, if the government does not fear losing face, it could simply say that it is ready to postpone the election and all sides concerned must join a discussion on what laws could be used to defer it. It could say all parties must discuss what should be done during the deferment period and how long the poll should be delayed. In other words, the election must be delayed so that all sides can join in drafting commonly-accepted rules and all sides can agree on a new election date.

But the government must first express its stand clearly - that it is ready to postpone the election so that all sides will join a discussion.

A new measure that has been discussed recently is to seek a ruling by the Constitutional Court. Both the government and the EC said Article 214 of the Constitution might be invoked to seek the ruling because the EC and the government could not agree on the election's delay.

Another way is to have the election held as scheduled on February 2 and the Constitutional Court will be asked to annul it like the annulment of the April 2 2006 poll.

Clearly, the government must initiate efforts to seek a way-out - unless the government wants the country to read it too as having reached a dead end.


-- The Nation 2014-01-17

[noitom]

And what if any countries would "team up" with a government formed by these rogue anarchists?

[PatOngo]

Conflicting parties are on a road to nowhere

So I guess they'll be meeting in Nakhon Nowhere.

[Spalpeen]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

[bigbamboo]

What do you expect from a bunch of talking heads?

[Tatsujin]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

Clearly failed? Been reading that red propaganda again?

With the increasing support of what should have been the Govt's own supporters, namely the rice farmers, I don't think you can in any way claim it has failed at this point.

This thing has only just begun and won't be ending anytime soon.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Tatsujin

[noitom]

The latest Thai fad fades away to return another day.

[kingalfred]

One thing is true , that Thai trait of "not losing face"never backing down,never saying sorry,never admitting being incorrect,never showing weakness.faced it many times.It reaches to the top of political conflicts here and as ever will result in No compromise and violence.

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[fab4]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

Clearly failed? Been reading that red propaganda again?

With the increasing support of what should have been the Govt's own supporters, namely the rice farmers, I don't think you can in any way claim it has failed at this point.

This thing has only just begun and won't be ending anytime soon.

Is every Rice Farmer heading to Bangkok? Are they supporting suthep or just pissed off with the government until they get their money? How many of the rice farmers that are allegedly "backing" suthep are there?

Will it make that large a dent in the PTP's 16 million vote base?

[NongKhaiKid]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

Clearly failed? Been reading that red propaganda again?

With the increasing support of what should have been the Govt's own supporters, namely the rice farmers, I don't think you can in any way claim it has failed at this point.

This thing has only just begun and won't be ending anytime soon.

I can only imagine the confusion if PTP / Red supporting rice farmers join ant-government protests even if they do it away from the current situation.

[Fryslan boppe]

And what if any countries would "team up" with a government formed by these rogue anarchists?

Other countries have a surprisingly clear perspective on this thing..Some quotes from a recent piece written byYuriko Koike, Japan's former defense minister and national security adviser :

• Asia’s democracies now risk confronting the same harsh question that the United States faced when Mao Zedong marched into Beijing, and again when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ousted the Shah in Iran. Who, they will have to ask, lost Thailand?
• What accounts for the armies of protesters – distinguished, gang-like, by the color of their shirts – whose mutual antipathy often borders on nihilistic rage?
• .... his (Thaksin's) victory heralded the political rise of the country’s poor, long-silenced rural majority. Bangkok’s entrenched elite recoiled in alarm. But, instead of learning to compete with Thaksin for the votes of Thailand’s rural poor, the country’s urban elite (including the powerful military) sought to delegitimize his rule....
• For much of her term in office, Yingluck garnered praise for her pragmatism, and for seeking to ameliorate the antagonism of her opponents.
• So, in essence, what is happening in Thailand is an attempted nullification of democracy by the opposition and the country’s entrenched elite. Unable to compete successfully with Thaksin for votes, they now want to dilute Thai democracy in order to prevent the electorate from ever again choosing a government that goes against their will.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Fryslan boppe

[Tatsujin]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

Clearly failed? Been reading that red propaganda again?

With the increasing support of what should have been the Govt's own supporters, namely the rice farmers, I don't think you can in any way claim it has failed at this point.

This thing has only just begun and won't be ending anytime soon.

Is every Rice Farmer heading to Bangkok? Are they supporting suthep or just pissed off with the government until they get their money? How many of the rice farmers that are allegedly "backing" suthep are there?

Will it make that large a dent in the PTP's 16 million vote base?

The answers to your questions remain to be seen.

The very fact that "any" of what are traditionally pro-Govt supporters are now protesting against the Govt is very telling however.

[Spalpeen]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

Clearly failed? Been reading that red propaganda again?

With the increasing support of what should have been the Govt's own supporters, namely the rice farmers, I don't think you can in any way claim it has failed at this point.

This thing has only just begun and won't be ending anytime soon.

Is every Rice Farmer heading to Bangkok? Are they supporting suthep or just pissed off with the government until they get their money? How many of the rice farmers that are allegedly "backing" suthep are there?

Will it make that large a dent in the PTP's 16 million vote base?

The answers to your questions remain to be seen.

The very fact that "any" of what are traditionally pro-Govt supporters are now protesting against the Govt is very telling however.

.

And if enough unhappy rice farmers switch to voting Democrat then the Dems will form the next government.

Oh no, hang on a second! They can't do that because the so called Democrats can't be bothered standing for election. They'd rather sit back muttering "Coup....coup....coup....".

[Ozymandias]

An unusually well balanced assessment from The Nation. As long as Suthep says "no negotiation, no compromise" there's no point in postponing the election. That would just amount to kicking the can down the road.

If I was Suthep I'd be worried for my personal safety at this point. His "peoples revolution" has clearly failed, so he might be of more use as a martyr to the people who back him.

Clearly failed? Been reading that red propaganda again?

With the increasing support of what should have been the Govt's own supporters, namely the rice farmers, I don't think you can in any way claim it has failed at this point.

This thing has only just begun and won't be ending anytime soon.

I can only imagine the confusion if PTP / Red supporting rice farmers join ant-government protests even if they do it away from the current situation.

I would LOVE to see that, just for the kick of seeing hi-so Bangkokians forced to stand alongside those they consider the uneducated. It may actually finally begin to create the understanding and perspective this country has lacked for so long.

[Tatsujin]

And if enough unhappy rice farmers switch to voting Democrat then the Dems will form the next government.

Oh no, hang on a second! They can't do that because the so called Democrats can't be bothered standing for election. They'd rather sit back muttering "Coup....coup....coup....".

I'm not sure those rice farmers will actually vote for the Dems, as the Dems have done absolutely nothing to appeal to that particular group of voters. However those voters are NOT happy with this current Govt and are making those sentiments known.

I don't also remember the Dems asking for a coup either, that seems to be coming from the pro-Govt side to scare people.

With regards to the elections, they are boycotting the elections simply because the likelihood is that (unless nothing is changed/reformed BEFORE elections take place), then the Thaksin clan get another 4 years to ride roughshod over the law, skim even more money and generally make themselves all much richer, with absolutely no checks and balances in place. Not a situation that is helping anyone except themselves.

Personally I don't like the way the PDRC is handling things, but having said that, I am VERY much in favor of some serious reforms BEFORE any elections take place. How that takes place remains to be seen. I sure don't trust the current Govt to do anything much to reform anything, other than to make it easier for themselves to lie, cheat and steal without any punishments.

[belg]

1776 thai style ?

[Gweiloman]

I don't think that any poster here, pro or anti Govt / Suthep / Thaksin (take your pick) disagrees that there should be reforms in Thailand. Less corruption (because to think that one can eradicate it is just naive), higher standards of education, more transparency, better town planning etc etc.

But Suthep played his hand badly. By calling for the Govt to resign plus lots of other ridiculous and impossible demands, he gave the Govt the chance to dissolve parliament and to call for snap elections, thus painting himself into a corner.

What he should have done instead was to have mobilised the people to demand for reforms in a more democratic manner, rather than using thuggish and terrorist tactics while at the same time, campaigning on the reform theme in order to try and garner more votes, even among the North Easterners. The Govt would be forced to hear the voice of the REAL people of Thailand.

One can't win a chess game in 3 moves unless playing against a complete beginner. TS and his elk are grand masters in this game of chess politics. Suthep overreached.

[Scamper]

Half this article is moot, because it centres rather obsessively on whether the administration has the power to delay the election. The EC - the constitutionally empowered authority - has said many times that it can. It is continuing to do so. And now, Yingluck is refusing to answer their phone calls. Another contradiction that is not aired in this article on the same topic, is that the Yingluck administration itself offered to delay the election by three months. The offer was rejected by the PDRC. If the administration claims it can't delay the election, why would they freely make such an offer ? The answer - as is the answer to all the other constitutional entanglements this administration seems prone to - is that they basically do what they want anyway. The real issue - not covered in this article - is that the administration does not respect the constitutional authority of the EC, and has further defamed their authority by staging forums where the EC is compelled to explain themselves. The Yingluck administration might as well have invited the Constitution Court to ask them to explain themselves, as well. Welcome to Pheu Thai's version of democracy.

[Ozymandias]

I don't think that any poster here, pro or anti Govt / Suthep / Thaksin (take your pick) disagrees that there should be reforms in Thailand. Less corruption (because to think that one can eradicate it is just naive), higher standards of education, more transparency, better town planning etc etc.

But Suthep played his hand badly. By calling for the Govt to resign plus lots of other ridiculous and impossible demands, he gave the Govt the chance to dissolve parliament and to call for snap elections, thus painting himself into a corner.

What he should have done instead was to have mobilised the people to demand for reforms in a more democratic manner, rather than using thuggish and terrorist tactics while at the same time, campaigning on the reform theme in order to try and garner more votes, even among the North Easterners. The Govt would be forced to hear the voice of the REAL people of Thailand.

One can't win a chess game in 3 moves unless playing against a complete beginner. TS and his elk are grand masters in this game of chess politics. Suthep overreached.

Absolutely agree. The problem is that, as ever, the pomposity and arrogance of the old elite leaves them under the impression that they're much cleverer than their enemies. When will they realise that - regardless of whatever opinions we may have of them - the Shinawatras are an intelligent clan and know how to play the game.

[kingalfred]

I don't think that any poster here, pro or anti Govt / Suthep / Thaksin (take your pick) disagrees that there should be reforms in Thailand. Less corruption (because to think that one can eradicate it is just naive), higher standards of education, more transparency, better town planning etc etc.

But Suthep played his hand badly. By calling for the Govt to resign plus lots of other ridiculous and impossible demands, he gave the Govt the chance to dissolve parliament and to call for snap elections, thus painting himself into a corner.

What he should have done instead was to have mobilised the people to demand for reforms in a more democratic manner, rather than using thuggish and terrorist tactics while at the same time, campaigning on the reform theme in order to try and garner more votes, even among the North Easterners. The Govt would be forced to hear the voice of the REAL people of Thailand.

One can't win a chess game in 3 moves unless playing against a complete beginner. TS and his elk are grand masters in this game of chess politics. Suthep overreached.

Absolutely agree. The problem is that, as ever, the pomposity and arrogance of the old elite leaves them under the impression that they're much cleverer than their enemies. When will they realise that - regardless of whatever opinions we may have of them - the Shinawatras are an intelligent clan and know how to play the game.

hmmm interesting definition of " intelligent",cheating.corrupt,liars.no respect for court decisions and a priority of putting the Shinawatra empire before that of Thailand.I suppose "intelligent" to warped persons.

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[HiSoLowSoNoSo]

^{The new Thai national anthem ? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWtCittJyr0}

[kingalfred]

The government are clearly going to say "well if you wanna go on streets of Bangkok ,hurting your own supporters .carry on" The only way the PM will go is by a court decision on other issues .certainly not by the action of the protestors

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