Bangkok Shutdown: 'Clashes could intensify'

[webfact]

SPECIAL REPORT
'Clashes could intensify'
Pakorn Puengnetr
The Nation


Police find a cache of weapons inside a deserted building believed to be the hiding place of people behind recent attacks.

'Group of trained people collecting resources to foment violence'

BANGKOK: -- With anti-government protests looking set to continue, Bangkok appears likely to witness intensifying violence as days go by.

Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha believes it is possible that the campaign led by the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) leader Suthep Thaugsuban could stir up violence similar to that created by the so-called "men-in-black" during the 2010 political riots.

"A group of people is using violence because they think without it they will not achieve victory … Their methodology is the same as the one used in 2010, but I do not know if they are the same group," Prayuth said.

The Army chief was speaking after clashes at the Thai-Japanese Stadium left a police officer and an anti-government protester dead. The media ran pictures of men-in-black on the rooftop of a building belonging to the Ministry of Labour.

Clashes also occurred between students at Ramkhamhaeng University and pro-government red shirts from November 30 to December 1.

Suthep took to the rally stage on Tuesday and Wednesday this week and claimed that senior police and leaders of rival political camps were financing attacks against PDRC protesters.

Satit Wongnongtaey, a PDRC leader also referred to the so-called "Kalamae group" last Monday, saying it was believed that this group was heavily armed and responsible for creating violence. Some believe a woman leads the group.

Violence is likely to intensify after the 191 special task force, which set up a checkpoint on Sukhumvit Road, arrested three men and a woman with four grenades, a gun and ammunition. The arrests were made the same night that an M26 grenade was thrown into the grounds of Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's house on Sukhumvit Soi 31.

Bangna police dismissed claims that the arrested suspects were involved in the attack, but PDRC leaders insist they were from the same group and have ties with the government camp. Unconfirmed reports allege that the number of weapons seized during the arrests was much larger than that reported in the press.

Security agencies have said a group of trained people equipped with resources is preparing to create violence at rally sites, and that they are supported by a logistics team that transports the weapons to their networks.

Preparations are also thought to be part of an anti-military coup movement. The group is allegedly assisted by some members of the police, who allegedly co-ordinate attacks from a 'safe house'. Illegal business operators are believed to be financing the operation.

However, National Security Council secretary-general Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut believes an ill-intentioned third-party may be responsible for the violence. He said the people involved disguise themselves as protesters. His agency is carrying out inquiries to find out who the group works for.


-- The Nation 2014-01-18

[Emptyset]

Bangna police dismissed claims that the arrested suspects were involved in the attack, but PDRC leaders insist they were from the same group and have ties with the government camp. Unconfirmed reports allege that the number of weapons seized during the arrests was much larger than that reported in the press.

Voice TV was claiming that the ones arrested were PDRC associated. Take your pick who is more biased, PDRC leaders or Voice. However, as for the anti-government supporters claims about the weapons seized in the arrest being larger than reported... this is what the claim appears to be based on:

The only thing the police don't appear to show in the press conference is the binoculars.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Emptyset

[NongKhaiKid]

Wow, what a profound headline displaying an amazing insight beyond the rest of us to figure out.

The Secy. Gen. of the NSC believes an ' ill intentioned third party ' may be responsible for the violence and isn't it wonderful that this ' unseen hand ' brigade who can never be identified are available to be blamed for everything.

[geriatrickid]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

[ManopY]

Bangna police dismissed claims that the arrested suspects were involved in the attack, but PDRC leaders insist they were from the same group and have ties with the government camp. Unconfirmed reports allege that the number of weapons seized during the arrests was much larger than that reported in the press.

Voice TV was claiming that the ones arrested were PDRC associated. Take your pick who is more biased, PDRC leaders or Voice. However, as for the anti-government supporters claims about the weapons seized in the arrest being larger than reported... this is what the claim appears to be based on:

The only thing the police don't appear to show in the press conference is the binoculars.

And where is the pistol, the machete and the knifes?

[Tarric]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

Indeed, the protests are definetly petering out. However that will make Suthep and the PDRC all the more desperate for a route to victory.

This weekend could be the last time they have anything like the numbers they need to accomplish anything. Some commentators are discussing the possibility of the protests lasting months and to be honest I don't see the PDRC being able to maintain the numbers or the tempo required to do that. While its definetly possible for the PDRC to blockade one key intersection like the Red's did in 2010 the chance of them maintaining the current shutdown dwindles by the day.

At this point only the Democrats getting on board for elections is going to stop this madness before more people get killed. While some PDRC backers say if Yingluck resigns the protests will stop I don't buy that for a second Thaksins influence within the PTP runs far deeper than just his sister. In my opinion the current protests will end in one of two ways, A coup after further violent clashes or the Democrats realise the need to be part of the electoral process for the good of the country.

[stubuzz]

If the police were to search local people in Bangkok on a normal day, no protests, how many weapons would they find?

[EricBerg]

If clashes intensify it could lead to military intervention of some kind.The Shinaclan would be given an easy way out then as the rice scheme bubble exploded. Stepping out because of the military will give the shinaclan the opportunity to a comeback in a few years.

After economic hardship created by themselves they can blame the dems for messing up and show another glimpse of paradise to the farmers. Then perhaps back in business and have a go at the 2.2 trillion again. The missunderstood fugitive could still hit the jackpot. Greed rules.

[millwall_fan]

It is absolutely NOT in the Reds interests to have violence at this stage. The protests are on the wane. I went to Victory Monument on Monday and saw 2,000-3,000 people gathered. . Yesterday,(Friday) I went down between 5pm and 7pm (so including the so called 'after work surge') and saw no more than 200-300. A tenth of the numbers there on Monday. They were still able to cause traffic chaos as they had blocked the road with motor vehicle and set up a market selling 'shutdown Bangkok' T shirts and whistles in the middle of the road (I saw some T shirts reduced from 199 Baht to 150 Baht - which kind of sums up where they are.) There were far more ordinary Bangkokians trying get on minibuses to get home, trying to buy food and engaged in the the usual clutter of Victory Monument. There must be no violence and then by this time next week it will all be over.

If there is violence it is being caused by supporters of Suthep who need violence to justify the continuation of their protests - which, surprisingly is what Prayuth seems to be saying.

[Tarric]

It is absolutely NOT in the Reds interests to have violence at this stage. The protests are on the wane. I went to Victory Monument on Monday and saw 2,000-3,000 people gathered. . Yesterday,(Friday) I went down between 5pm and 7pm (so including the so called 'after work surge') and saw no more than 200-300. A tenth of the numbers there on Monday. They were still able to cause traffic chaos as they had blocked the road with motor vehicle and set up a market selling 'shutdown Bangkok' T shirts and whistles in the middle of the road (I saw some T shirts reduced from 199 Baht to 150 Baht - which kind of sums up where they are.) There were far more ordinary Bangkokians trying get on minibuses to get home, trying to buy food and engaged in the the usual clutter of Victory Monument. There must be no violence and then by this time next week it will all be over.

If there is violence it is being caused by supporters of Suthep who need violence to justify the continuation of their protests - which, surprisingly is what Prayuth seems to be saying.

Do you have a link to Prayuth's comments? I would love to have a read of what he has been saying.

[gabruce]

It is absolutely NOT in the Reds interests to have violence at this stage. The protests are on the wane. I went to Victory Monument on Monday and saw 2,000-3,000 people gathered. . Yesterday,(Friday) I went down between 5pm and 7pm (so including the so called 'after work surge') and saw no more than 200-300. A tenth of the numbers there on Monday. They were still able to cause traffic chaos as they had blocked the road with motor vehicle and set up a market selling 'shutdown Bangkok' T shirts and whistles in the middle of the road (I saw some T shirts reduced from 199 Baht to 150 Baht - which kind of sums up where they are.) There were far more ordinary Bangkokians trying get on minibuses to get home, trying to buy food and engaged in the the usual clutter of Victory Monument. There must be no violence and then by this time next week it will all be over.

If there is violence it is being caused by supporters of Suthep who need violence to justify the continuation of their protests - which, surprisingly is what Prayuth seems to be saying.

There is no way you can know this with the same certainty that you state. At best all you can say is that you believe that it is more likely that it's Suthep's supporters who are doing this to their fellow protestors.

It's possible, however I believe it's less likely than their opponents being behind it.

Who's right. Only the people responsible know. It's entirely possible that the people throwing bombs etc don't know themselves.

As the article said, they don't know if it is a third party whether it's the Red Shirts Men In Black from 2010 or another group.

I am almost certain we will NEVER know who is behind the violence with any certainty.

[crazykopite]

Suthep should take time out as his son is in court on the 20th for dodgy land dealings on Koh Samui the Suthep regime is no better than the shins the only difference is the shins have more and that has upset Suthep hence the reason for all this mayhem the guy should be in jail he has a murder charge against him so what are the police waiting for put the jerk away and lose the key.

[jacko45k]

Looking at that picture, and the items on the table, the item on the front right corner looks like a Walkie Talkie, but is oversized.

The picture appears 'doctored'.......

Am I mistaken?

Edited January 18, 2014 by jacko45k

[diehard60]

You can bet your sweet bippy there will be more. Because this is what surthep and his thugs want and it is the only way they might win. He is doing the same thing that he did in 2010.

[geriatrickid]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

Indeed, the protests are definetly petering out. However that will make Suthep and the PDRC all the more desperate for a route to victory.

This weekend could be the last time they have anything like the numbers they need to accomplish anything. Some commentators are discussing the possibility of the protests lasting months and to be honest I don't see the PDRC being able to maintain the numbers or the tempo required to do that. While its definetly possible for the PDRC to blockade one key intersection like the Red's did in 2010 the chance of them maintaining the current shutdown dwindles by the day.

At this point only the Democrats getting on board for elections is going to stop this madness before more people get killed. While some PDRC backers say if Yingluck resigns the protests will stop I don't buy that for a second Thaksins influence within the PTP runs far deeper than just his sister. In my opinion the current protests will end in one of two ways, A coup after further violent clashes or the Democrats realise the need to be part of the electoral process for the good of the country.

I don't want to quote you out of context so I put your entire comment up. I have a question for you because you make a good point;

At this point only the Democrats getting on board for elections is going to stop this madness before more people get killed

Do you think they'll do it? Suthep controls a large part of the key Democrat vote in the south. My thinking is that if Abhisit took a stand, perhaps easier now that the thorn in his side Suthep is sort of sidelined, could the Democrats keep those votes, and hope to attract the disaffected voters elsewhere and keep the party alive? The worst possible thing that could happen to Thiiland would be a landslide PTP victory because there was no strong opposition party in the running.

Do you think Abhisit might see this as an opportunity to finally leave his mark, by coming out against corruption and making a pledge to try and do something? For all of Abhisit's faults and weaknesses, I think he is one of the least corrupt politicians in Thailand. What do you think of his chances at trying for a coalition of "integrity"? Sure, difficult to do when so many of the MPs from all parties are tainted, but surely people have had enough. The coalition could run along the lines of honouring a large part of the PTP social policy that helps the poor and rural areas, but trading it off against the nightmare of the amnesty proposal. There are many UDD supporters who are aligned with Thaksin only because he backed a social agenda that helped their people. Are there any MPs/candidates in Thailand willing to stick their necks out for the best interests of the country?

Or am I dreaming?

Edited January 18, 2014 by geriatrickid

[Tchooptip]

If the police were to search local people in Bangkok on a normal day, no protests, how many weapons would they find?

Why only in Bangkok...

Everywhere in Thailand?...many many

[GeorgeO]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

...and let the Shin clan continue to rape the country of its assets...?!

[GAZZPA]

Looking at that picture, and the items on the table, the item on the front right corner looks like a Walkie Talkie, but is oversized.

The picture appears 'doctored'.......

Am I mistaken?

I think you're right. Also, another detail. Notice that all the other items slightly hanging over the table cast a shadow,, however the oversized walkie talkie seems to miraculously cast no shadow.

Definitely something wrong with that picture.

[Tarric]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

Indeed, the protests are definetly petering out. However that will make Suthep and the PDRC all the more desperate for a route to victory.

This weekend could be the last time they have anything like the numbers they need to accomplish anything. Some commentators are discussing the possibility of the protests lasting months and to be honest I don't see the PDRC being able to maintain the numbers or the tempo required to do that. While its definetly possible for the PDRC to blockade one key intersection like the Red's did in 2010 the chance of them maintaining the current shutdown dwindles by the day.

At this point only the Democrats getting on board for elections is going to stop this madness before more people get killed. While some PDRC backers say if Yingluck resigns the protests will stop I don't buy that for a second Thaksins influence within the PTP runs far deeper than just his sister. In my opinion the current protests will end in one of two ways, A coup after further violent clashes or the Democrats realise the need to be part of the electoral process for the good of the country.

I don't want to quote you out of context so I put your entire comment up. I have a question for you because you make a good point;

At this point only the Democrats getting on board for elections is going to stop this madness before more people get killed

Do you think they'll do it? Suthep controls a large part of the key Democrat vote in the south. My thinking is that if Abhisit took a stand, perhaps easier now that the thorn in his side Suthep is sort of sidelined, could the Democrats keep those votes, and hope to attract the disaffected voters elsewhere and keep the party alive? The worst possible thing that could happen to Thiiland would be a landslide PTP victory because there was no strong opposition party in the running.

Do you think Abhisit might see this as an opportunity to finally leave his mark, by coming out against corruption and making a pledge to try and do something? For all of Abhisit's faults and weaknesses, I think he is one of the least corrupt politicians in Thailand. What do you think of his chances at trying for a coalition of "integrity"? Sure, difficult to do when so many of the MPs from all parties are tainted, but surely people have had enough. The coalition could run along the lines of honouring a large part of the PTP social policy that helps the poor and rural areas, but trading it off against the nightmare of the amnesty proposal. There are many UDD supporters who are aligned with Thaksin only because he backed a social agenda that helped their people. Are there any MPs/candidates in Thailand willing to stick their necks out for the best interests of the country?

Or am I dreaming?

Suthep has shot his bolt in the eyes of many of the moderate Democrat supporters, while the hardcore anti-Thaksinites back him, they will just as readily follow the next leader who takes a shot as dimantling the Shincorp power base.

I think Abhisit had a great opportunity a few months ago to take his stand against both the PTP and the more extreme members of the Democrat party, however instead of speaking out and fighting for what's right he fell in line behind the rest of the party. His recent comments and rhetoric have possibly cost him his chance at being a moderate leader who Thai's of all creeed's could unite behind.

Before all the recent political conflict I viewed Abhisit as a honourable man of principle who was stuck in a den of thieves, in a way he still is, however he has made too many compromises for the people to view him as anything but a mouthpiece for the Democrats powerful backers. I think he believes in the long run his involvement in the Democrat party will yield a net positive results for the country and is willing to do whatever it takes to maintain his stake in the long term.

If he publicly disavowed Suthep and his minions, with the support of some of the more moderate Democrats in a shake up of the party they could have a real shot at winning the next election especially considering the shambles the PTP is in with its policies blowing up in their faces.

I think doing what's right for the country is practically an impossiblity in Thai politics despite an individuals altruistic ideals, the elite are entrenched on both sides of politics both revelling in their share of the corruption pie. If anyone like Abhisit or another actually genuinely tried to reform the country to reduce corruption they would be politically crushed by both sides who have a vested interest in the status quo.

I don't think the people (as a nation) are politically active or motivated enough to create a viable third party to actually effect change in a system that is essentially two party preferred. That being said its the same throughout most of the democratised world with 2 major parties taking it in turns to govern and do favours for their backers. Its not a uniquely Thai problem its a human one.

Edit: If the Democrats did as you say taking much of the PTP's rural policies as their own and run on a platform of anti-corruption (whether real or imagined) and campaigned for stability and unity they could stand a very good chance of making big inroads in any election and perhaps even win in the form of a coalition government. However unless the Democrats can shed their image as a tool of the Bangkok elite they will not be a viable alternative for quite some time. I think they need a fresh face to lead them, perhaps Korn, someone who is currently untainted in the eyes of most of the populace rather than someone like Abhisit who's image is perhaps beyond repair.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Tarric

[lucjoker]

What is happening in BKK (and politics in general)is a tv-soap,

people like to talk about it,

give their opinions,

discuss it

loose their time

nobody nows what will happen

and if something happens it's the most un-logic!

That's why i give it the attention it deserves: NONE,

Soaps is for dumb people,who believe what they see.

[madmitch]

Looking at that picture, and the items on the table, the item on the front right corner looks like a Walkie Talkie, but is oversized.

The picture appears 'doctored'.......

Am I mistaken?

Got to agree.

That picture look photoshopped.

[lifeincnx]

Looking at that picture, and the items on the table, the item on the front right corner looks like a Walkie Talkie, but is oversized.

The picture appears 'doctored'.......

Am I mistaken?

Good catch. Photoshopped for sure. But why?

When the walkie talkie was pasted into the shot the 'artist' forgot to resize the proportion. Also he forgot to add the shadow under it from the over head lights and camera flashes. Note the shadow just under the rifles on the table.

What's the point unless the whole thing is a scam (considering Blue Sky was the ONLY news coverage allowed in initially).

[xenophon]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

Indeed, the protests are definetly petering out. However that will make Suthep and the PDRC all the more desperate for a route to victory.

This weekend could be the last time they have anything like the numbers they need to accomplish anything. Some commentators are discussing the possibility of the protests lasting months and to be honest I don't see the PDRC being able to maintain the numbers or the tempo required to do that. While its definetly possible for the PDRC to blockade one key intersection like the Red's did in 2010 the chance of them maintaining the current shutdown dwindles by the day.

At this point only the Democrats getting on board for elections is going to stop this madness before more people get killed. While some PDRC backers say if Yingluck resigns the protests will stop I don't buy that for a second Thaksins influence within the PTP runs far deeper than just his sister. In my opinion the current protests will end in one of two ways, A coup after further violent clashes or the Democrats realise the need to be part of the electoral process for the good of the country.

If only your optimism were realisable ...i.e. Democrats were able to remove digit, get out there with some winnable policies and rejoin the political process.

However, many things prevent this including the Democrats incompetence, loss of face, interests in the judiciary, army etc., and, most especially, the future of matters of high importance which we cannot discuss here

[Baerboxer]

It is absolutely NOT in the Reds interests to have violence at this stage. The protests are on the wane. I went to Victory Monument on Monday and saw 2,000-3,000 people gathered. . Yesterday,(Friday) I went down between 5pm and 7pm (so including the so called 'after work surge') and saw no more than 200-300. A tenth of the numbers there on Monday. They were still able to cause traffic chaos as they had blocked the road with motor vehicle and set up a market selling 'shutdown Bangkok' T shirts and whistles in the middle of the road (I saw some T shirts reduced from 199 Baht to 150 Baht - which kind of sums up where they are.) There were far more ordinary Bangkokians trying get on minibuses to get home, trying to buy food and engaged in the the usual clutter of Victory Monument. There must be no violence and then by this time next week it will all be over.

If there is violence it is being caused by supporters of Suthep who need violence to justify the continuation of their protests - which, surprisingly is what Prayuth seems to be saying.

A good story - but no evidence. Your opinion is that the PDRC are orchestrating violence against themselves. But, you have no evidence to support that other than posit violence would not be in the Reds interest at this moment in time.

However, violent attacks on opposition and critics is a trait of the Red/PTP faction, more so than their opposition. Note while the caretaker PM/DM has been trying to portray herself as the voice of reason and calm, her cousin the CAPO leader has been more threatening, as was the DSI director (until he went to ground), and the Interior minister. It's very much a trait of Thaksin proxy parties to behave like this - nice/unpleasant, hot/cold, peace/violence. They are a multi-dimensional faction, How much is down to uncontrollable elements or how much centrally orchestrated - who knows. There is no doubt Thaksin was happy to sacrifice a few cannon fodder minions in 2010 when violence suited, and no, he never came and stood with them as promised.

I really find all these conspiracy theories a joke. Protesters killing and injury a few of their own to make a point. Reds never doing this, only murdered by Abhisit, and the mysterious ill intention third hand who pops up now and then, just like those men in black, Even if the BiB have a clue whats going on, they don't do or say anything until its been spun by their political masters.

You could just as easily posit Thaksin has ordered the reds to make a few attacks to "persuade" the dwindling number of protesters to pack it in, stop the weekend and evening warriors coming out and create some order before the election on 2nd Feb he so desperately wants.

Both sides have their master plans - the protesters, assassins, police, are just pawns in the game.

[tx22cb]

Looking at that picture, and the items on the table, the item on the front right corner looks like a Walkie Talkie, but is oversized.

The picture appears 'doctored'.......

Am I mistaken?

I think you're right. Also, another detail. Notice that all the other items slightly hanging over the table cast a shadow,, however the oversized walkie talkie seems to miraculously cast no shadow.

Definitely something wrong with that picture.

Other websites say that the "rifles" are BB guns, and the other equipment (incl walkie-talkies) are out-of-date.

[nomad127]

In the photo of the story, I don't see a complete weapon or enough pieces to even make a working weapon. I see the barrel to an M-16, the stock, bipod, handguards, but no receiver. It'd just excess parts.

[LomSak27]

Like a good media outlet The Nation telegraphs its punches

The shut down Bangkok is tailing off, game over - this from Bloomberg (not the Nation)

number of people manning roadblocks at Victory Monument and Asoke, two of seven protest sites in the capital, fell below a hundred at times yesterday, down from more than a thousand when the demonstrations began at the start of the week.

the only way now, is military coup, and if that will happen they must need ..... an escalation of violence.

I have never been one to give credence to conspiracy theories or false flag operations but these guys have a verfiable track record of doing both so I assume the PDRC will give it their best effort in hopes the military might save the day at the 11th hour.ith a coup.

and The Nation pumps it out ... yup

Edited January 18, 2014 by LomSak27

[Babytalk]

You could just as easily posit Thaksin has ordered the reds to make a few attacks to "persuade" the dwindling number of protesters to pack it in, stop the weekend and evening warriors coming out and create some order before the election on 2nd Feb he so desperately wants.

Such a strategy would be beyond stupid... The only ones who can benefit from violence in this conflict is the yellow network. They need incidents like this to give the military an excuse for a coup, which is the only way they can win.

The red network can wait this crisis out. The yellow network cannot: they need blood on the streets and lots of it.

[harada]

Looking at that picture, and the items on the table, the item on the front right corner looks like a Walkie Talkie, but is oversized.

The picture appears 'doctored'.......

Am I mistaken?

I agree Im sure that the guy in the blue jacket is actually the Indonesian Foreign Minister on a camping trip.

[Sayonarax]

Reputable observers estimate the protestors on the street to number between 10,000 and 20,000 depending upon the time of day.

If true, then there really isn't much to tussle over. It looks like the protests have run their course and there really isn't anyone to fight with. Perhaps it is time to start clearing out some of the intersections and let the people of Bangkok get on with their lives.

Its their country, let them do what they want.