Yingluck dithers as emergency decree proves to be a dud

[webfact]

OVERDRIVE
Yingluck dithers as emergency decree proves to be a dud
Thanong Khanthong

BANGKOK: -- The state of emergency declared by the caretaker Yingluck government has turned into a farce, adding more confusion and further complicating a political situation already adrift.

There is no way it can be effectively implemented. To begin with, there is no clear chain of command to take charge of enforcing the emergency decree. This law authorises government authorities to take drastic measures against the Occupy Bangkok Movement led by Suthep Thaugsuban.

Historical precedent suggests the emergency decree will fail. But does the caretaker government have the legal authority - never mind the legitimacy - to issue an emergency decree in the first place? How can the February 2 election proceed under the dark cloud of emergency, given that the poll result is already almost certain to be subject to a court challenge?

Recent failures in the implementation of emergency decrees were witnessed first under the Samak government and then under the Somchai administration. In both cases, the military took charge but were reluctant to employ force against the yellow-shirt protesters. The emergency decree was thus reduced to a paper tiger. The Abhisit government also declared a state of emergency, responding to the red-shirt protests. In that case, the military, after an initial delay, did step in to drive the red shirts from the Ratchaprasong area and end one of the bloodiest episodes in modern Thai history.

Now, there are signs of growing weakness in the caretaker government. The Occupy Bangkok movement has defied the emergency decree, acting as if nothing has happened. Instead of bringing in the military or police to quash the protest, the administration has remained indecisive. The signs are clear. Yingluck and her mentor Thaksin Shinawatra are losing the support of the military. They committed a grave mistake in overestimating their ability to buy up and subjugate the whole security apparatus. The police remain as a pillar of support for the government. But the police force can't mobilise to nab the protest leaders and disperse the crowds at seven locations in Bangkok without confronting the military, who will provide protection to the Occupy Bangkok movement.

Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and Supreme Commander General Thanasak Patimaprakorn have been betting on the wrong horse all along by providing support to the Yingluck government. They have never signalled that the military would like the country to undertake reforms first before holding a new election. With the military in indecisive mode, the political crisis has dragged on for almost three months. General Prayuth opted to travel to the South as Yingluck declared the state of emergency. He was running away from the political reality.

The game-changer is the Royal Thai Navy. Earlier this week Rear Admiral Winai Klom-in, commander of the Thai Navy Seals, came out in support of the Occupy Bangkok movement, saying that the military would not allow the government to use force against the protesters. He also attacked those associated with the torching of Bangkok in 2010, when red shirts, black-shirted militiamen and mercenaries from a neighbouring country battled government forces. By implication, Rear Admiral Winai must have been given the green light by the Navy chief to speak his mind. His words reflect a rift within the military and represent strong evidence of Prayuth's frustration at no longer being fully in charge.

At this juncture, the governing Pheu Thai Party is losing its power quickly. If it decides to use force against the protesters, it will be dealt with decisively by the military. If it hangs on until February 2, the opposition-boycotted election will fail to produce a result and legal challenges will help prevent its comeback. The protesters can only remove the caretaker government with a decisive ruling against the administration from the National Anti-Corruption Commission or the courts. This stand-off cannot continue forever. So who will blink first?


-- The Nation 2014-01-24

[Gsxrnz]

Meanwhile, in Toyland...............

[notmyself]

A naval coup. Would that be a first?

[JRSoul]

A naval coup. Would that be a first?

Formerly known as gunboat diplomacy.

[Thait Spot]

A very Shakespearian plot

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[notmyself]

One day this whole thing will make a great comedy movie called 'Thai hard'.

[steven100]

poor yingluck ... now clutching at straws .... game over

Sent from my TR736 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[Emptyset]

So Thanong didn't realize that the Navy commander is red? Even if he wasn't and was willing to stage a coup, remember the last time the Navy tried to stage a coup? Seems Prayuth is being criticized by both sides. Not surprising as he's obviously trying to play both sides of the coin. I believe he and Thanasak have ruled out a coup, despite the fact that they might be willing to give tacit support to the protesters while ostensibly aiding the government. So if you see Prayuth and Thanasak leaving the country, there's a good chance of a coup, but otherwise...

Problem is Suthep seems to be wandering around aimlessly collecting money despite the fact he knows there's no way out of this without a coup. The anti-govt side don't know what the end game is. That much is clear from Thanong's article. He can't see past the military. Court action alone will not create a "People's Council".

Edited January 24, 2014 by Emptyset

[NongKhaiKid]

" Yingluck dithers... ", now there's a headline to behold.

[harrry]

A naval coup. Would that be a first?

Check out the 1976 coup and the Manhaten Rebellion 1951

Edited January 24, 2014 by harrry

[BSJ]

A military coup needs all the military to be behind it otherwise it could get dirty very quickly.

[chooka]

A naval coup. Would that be a first?

That could start a war with the Army

[notmyself]

A naval coup. Would that be a first?

Check out the 1976 coup

Like a shitp silently passing in the water.

Edited January 24, 2014 by notmyself

[kurnell]

"To begin with, there is no clear chain of command to take charge". Thailand in a nutshell

[simon43]

Heavens sake! It used to be embarrassing to tell folks back home that you live in Thailand. all those winks, nudge nudge, is your wife a ladyboy, are you some sort of sex pervert etc

Now the sniggers and comments have changed...

'Thailand? That's the Keystone Cops place isn't it? That's the Yes Minister country? How on earth can you live in a failed state like that?

I think on my next trip to the UK I'm going to say that I live in Cambodia and smuggle drugs for a living. At least I won't get laughed at so much

Edited January 24, 2014 by simon43

[Spalpeen]

A deeply deluded article. Contrast this nonsense with the thread on how the internetional media sees the situation.

[Emptyset]

A naval coup. Would that be a first?

Check out the 1976 coup and the Manhaten Rebellion 1951

76 coup was lead by an Admiral but with backing of most of the military. Manhattan Rebellion was the one I was thinking of - and was obviously a disaster. In any case, the point is moot because I'm pretty sure the Navy Chief is with the government. Vinai obviously isn't, but I don't think the SEALs could pull off a coup alone.

[ianf]

Reminds me of the Cod War when the Icelanders sent the tanks in.

[CraigSchuler]

I say.....Lets all have a beer!

[Roadman]

Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and Supreme Commander General Thanasak Patimaprakorn have been betting on the wrong horse all along by providing support to the Yingluck government.

What the author has got very astray 'IMHO' that the Army has been supporting the people not this current government. This have been civil to Yingluck and Thaksins Pheu Thai government during Yinglucks puppeteer show. Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha is proving to be the best leader of any that are currently on display in the politicial field, and by a long show.

His allegiance as the one before him was, is to His Most Royal HIghness, The Thai people and Thailand, and what the modern Army General is bringing to the table in a good understanding of leadership...some would also say the Army would be fourth in line to them as well. Nowhere in that script of allegiance do they hold to politicians from all political spectrum's inclusive above any of those three utmost values. Sure they are an old guys club who are at times no better than the rest. But when politicians are running riot at least their three allegiances before theirs sure trumps the current Pheu Thai government with its 'no we are further up the cue" undemocratic performance.

When the political vacuum hits this country with no government to govern, and those that were Caretaker government are fighting for their lives where they should be in the courts, then the Only Wise One in the country would be wise to put Thailand's hands in the General's care.

[waza]

Seems the Thaksin's damage control lacks drive, co-ordination, cohesion and a workable plan, no wonder the "Darling of Issan", Poo, is dithering.

I wasn't there, no one saw me

Edited January 24, 2014 by waza

[Emptyset]

Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and Supreme Commander General Thanasak Patimaprakorn have been betting on the wrong horse all along by providing support to the Yingluck government.

What the author has got very astray 'IMHO' that the Army has been supporting the people not this current government. This have been civil to Yingluck and Thaksins Pheu Thai government during Yinglucks puppeteer show. Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha is proving to be the best leader of any that are currently on display in the politicial field, and by a long show.

You're saying what a lot of reds are saying. Anti-govt people are saying different, they think Prayuth should've at least done more to support them, if not launched an outright coup. I think it's more complicated than those on both sides generally have it. John Cole and Steve Sciacchitano's recent analysis in the Asia Times was spot on. They've been pretty much correct since they started writing. If anyone wants to know what's been going on with the military during the past few years, there's no better source in English (probably in Thai too actually) than their articles. It's worth remembering too - that these entities aren't monolithic - Yingluck talks to Prayuth often and trusts him (supposedly anyway). Others in the government don't. Prayuth doesn't want to stage a coup, certain subordinates would like nothing better...

Edited January 24, 2014 by Emptyset

[millwall_fan]

The emergency decree can only work if the army permit the police to remove the remaining protesters. They wont

[englishoak]

Blatant tabloid trash, about as opinionated as it gets... opinion all one sided of course... this paper is about as credible and unbiased as the SUN back home .... except it peddles itself as a broadsheet intellectual paper... pathetic really cant even quote people in full and has to hack out snippets and realign them...example.... Mr Navy nutjob game changer said things very differently in the original interview lol

[CraigSchuler]

What the hell is "Dithering"?........

[Fryslan boppe]

"Recent failures in the implementation of emergency decrees were witnessed first under the Samak government and then under the Somchai administration. In both cases, the military took charge but were reluctant to employ force against the yellow-shirt protesters. The emergency decree was thus reduced to a paper tiger. The Abhisit government also declared a state of emergency, responding to the red-shirt protests. In that case, the military, after an initial delay, did step in to drive the red shirts from the Ratchaprasong area and end one of the bloodiest episodes in modern Thai history"

>A neat encapsulation of the 'double standards" thing....At least the military version and their Elitist anti-democratic overseers.......

>"....end one of the bloodiest episodes in modern Thai history"..........Really?...With over 90 deaths as a result of this Soldier-in-Civilian perversion, wasn't it rather the beginning?......

>Calling that Coup-rooted Govt. the "..Abhisit government..." also gives it a veneer of normalcy by omission of its' genesis, even though the two principle leaders of this current coup-intentioned version are subject to judicial proceedings for alleged murder in that previous coup incarnation.

>Talking about double standards, another skin-to-this-onion is comparing the military enforcement of the current Emergency Decree and that of clearing the airport. It has an eerily similar pattern. While their attack on a primarily female populated protest in 2010 was conducted as-and-when ordered while the airporters were left undisturbed....No mutiny then.

Is it any wonder the UDD/RS's look upon this military as not only being an extension of the Elitist-rooted coup-mongers, thereby being no better than a foreign occupying force...And all I'm doing is reflecting what I hear from them..

[daboyz1]

Blatant tabloid trash, about as opinionated as it gets... opinion all one sided of course... this paper is about as credible and unbiased as the SUN back home .... except it peddles itself as a broadsheet intellectual paper... pathetic really cant even quote people in full and has to hack out snippets and realign them...example.... Mr Navy nutjob game changer said things very differently in the original interview lol

Sounds like the western media's coverage of Thailand

.

[NongKhaiKid]

Heavens sake! It used to be embarrassing to tell folks back home that you live in Thailand. all those winks, nudge nudge, is your wife a ladyboy, are you some sort of sex pervert etc

Now the sniggers and comments have changed...

'Thailand? That's the Keystone Cops place isn't it? That's the Yes Minister country? How on earth can you live in a failed state like that?

I think on my next trip to the UK I'm going to say that I live in Cambodia and smuggle drugs for a living. At least I won't get laughed at so much

Nice one. Be careful though who you say it to as arriving / leaving you may be introduced to the joys of a body cavity search and if you're suffering from piles ... double Ouch !

[notmyself]

What the hell is "Dithering"?........

dith·er (dr)

n.

A state of indecisive agitation.

intr.v. dith·ered, dith·er·ing, dith·ers

To be nervously irresolute in acting or doing.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/dither

[happynthailand]

"Dithering" - playing with ones weenie