Analysis
Limbo looms for Thailand after protest-hit polls
by Kelly MACNAMARA

BANGKOK, February 3, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's protest-plagued elections herald a political stalemate that risks unleashing deepening turmoil and potential judicial intervention in the polarised kingdom, experts say.

Voting went ahead largely peacefully despite fears of fresh violence following pre-poll bloodshed sparked by opposition rallies aimed at preventing the re-election of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

But millions were denied the opportunity to cast ballots, with protest blockades causing the closure of some 10 percent of polling stations in an election boycotted by the main opposition party.

Facing possible vote reruns in nearly a fifth of constituencies, election officials have dampened expectations of a quick result.

That has raised the spectre of weeks of uncertainty in a country where military coups and court interventions have a history of reshaping the political landscape.

Without enough MPs to convene the legislature, even if Yingluck wins she will remain in a caretaker role with limited power over government policy until elections are held in the problem areas.

"She will be untenable as a caretaker who doesn't have the authority to really run the country," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, adding that Yingluck would become "more vulnerable to some kind of ouster".

"The longer Yingluck is a weakening caretaker prime minister the greater the likelihood that we will see a decision from the independent agencies to break the deadlock," he said.

Such bodies include the Election Commission and the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which is investigating Yingluck for possible neglect of duty over a controversial rice subsidy scheme. If found guilty she could face impeachment.

Loved and loathed

Thailand has appeared trapped in a feedback loop of street unrest and political upheaval since a military coup deposed Yingluck's brother Thaksin from power seven years ago.

The billionaire tycoon-turned-politician has lived abroad to avoid a jail term for graft since 2008, but his absence has failed to heal the nation's divisions.

The former premier and his allies have won every democratic vote since 2001, riding a wave of popularity in his north and northeastern heartlands for policies like cheap healthcare and rice subsidy schemes.

But Thaksin's electoral strength and leadership style has been decried as tyrannical and corrupt by his foes, backed by the kingdom's powerful establishment forces.

The main opposition Democrat Party -- which has not won an elected majority in some two decades -- refused to take part in Sunday's election, instead throwing its support behind protesters largely made up of the Bangkok middle classes and southerners.

The party on Sunday said it was preparing to petition the Constitutional Court to annul the election.

Such a move "could prolong the protests on the streets of Bangkok and create a situation leading to intervention from the military or the judges," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Japan's Kyoto University.

Fears of protracted civil violence

The political uncertainty hanging over one of Southeast Asia's biggest economies, coupled with recent political violence that has left at least 10 dead, have dented investor confidence and caused tourists to shy away.

"Foreign investors are increasingly worried about the mounting political risks in Thailand, with no political solution in sight," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight, which has cut its Thai economic growth forecast to 3.2 percent for 2014, from 3.9 percent previously.

He said the seemingly intractable political divisions heightened fears over "protracted violent civil unrest" coupled with "a gradual erosion of Thailand's previously sound macroeconomic environment".

The unrest is the worst since mass protests by the largely pro-Thaksin "Red Shirts" against a Democrat-led government in 2010 sparked clashes and a bloody military crackdown that left more than 90 people dead.

The latest rallies were initially sparked by an attempted amnesty that could have allowed Thaksin to return.

But they morphed into an attempt to replace the government with an unelected "people's council" to run the country and implement vaguely-defined reforms before elections in a year or more.

Thailand-based scholar and author David Streckfuss said the opposition missed an opportunity to demonstrate the level of support for their campaign with a tally of 'no' votes.

He said demonstrators were aiming to help create the pretext for the military to step in to remove Yingluck, but were likely to "underestimate" the backlash from the Red Shirts.

"Sooner or later there is going to be a very sharp response."


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-02-03

Thais love dictatorship.

We knew all this well before the election !

As Yingluck has now entered the Bermuda Triangle of Thai politics, we are faced with a stillborn administration - unable to do anything without approval of overseeing monitors - which hasn't really worked up until now as the administration finds their presence objectionable and has resisted them at every turn. This is an administration that is stuck in unilateral mode. They see no reason to concede that any of that has changed. In fact, they're forging ahead with more gambits than they have the means or even thought to carry them out. Pheu Thai have always been terrible administrators - putting all the corruption practices aside, which arguably they do enormously well. They simply have no concept of how to govern. Or rather, their concept is to simply do whatever they want, and call it legitimate simply because they say it is. They need to understand that life is different for them now. They no longer have a parliament behind them. It is gone. They are now under investigation from the NACC. They need to accept the reality of government oversight agencies and the role they are sworn to honour. It's time for the Yingluck administration to do some honouring of its own.

If only Buddhist Thailand could find a few brave and honest souls from somewhere to lead the country and it's people out of this limbo before it gets dumped into ASEAN's slow lane.

Limbo indeed.

Break out the rum and bananas and Harry Belafonte

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The party on Sunday said it was preparing to petition the Constitutional Court to annul the election.

Such a move "could prolong the protests on the streets of Bangkok and create a situation leading to intervention from the military or the judges," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Japan's Kyoto University.

I believe he got it backwards, it will probably be the courts first then the military. I really hope that after Yingluck is impeached, PTP will see the light and drop the fight to keep appointing Shins to the leadership, then there will be no need of military intervention.

Limbo indeed.

Break out the rum and bananas and Harry Belafonte

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Now we are talking ...

Limbo indeed.

Break out the rum and bananas and Harry Belafonte

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

How low can you get?

My circle of friends say that I can limbo under a sh-thouse door with a top hat on. What can they be inferring?

The party on Sunday said it was preparing to petition the Constitutional Court to annul the election.

Such a move "could prolong the protests on the streets of Bangkok and create a situation leading to intervention from the military or the judges," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Japan's Kyoto University.

I believe he got it backwards, it will probably be the courts first then the military. I really hope that after Yingluck is impeached, PTP will see the light and drop the fight to keep appointing Shins to the leadership, then there will be no need of military intervention.

So I guess you want suthep as PM. You people living in BKK have no idea who builds your mansions, works in your factories, acts as your slaves. Do you? All the peole from the North and northeast.

Look they misspelt 'bimbo'.

The party on Sunday said it was preparing to petition the Constitutional Court to annul the election.

Such a move "could prolong the protests on the streets of Bangkok and create a situation leading to intervention from the military or the judges," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Japan's Kyoto University.

I believe he got it backwards, it will probably be the courts first then the military. I really hope that after Yingluck is impeached, PTP will see the light and drop the fight to keep appointing Shins to the leadership, then there will be no need of military intervention.

So I guess you want suthep as PM. You people living in BKK have no idea who builds your mansions, works in your factories, acts as your slaves. Do you? All the peole from the North and northeast.

I have no idea how you got the idea anyone wants Suthep as PM from the advice to PTP to remove Yingluck from leadership, ignoring that she is totally unsuitable for the position based on experience or knowledge.

Furthermore, "we" do not need to keep using all the peole as you describe them (don't know if you are saying prole or people) from the North and Northeast; "we" can just start using more and more foreign labourers - in fact "we" are doing that already because there aren't enough people in Thailand to fill all the jobs here!

No one is insisting anyone has to come to Bangkok or have to work in the factories, or 'be our slaves' - they are most welcome to go do something else if they don't want "our" jobs on offer.

Talk about condescending - there are plenty of perfectly capable people from the north and northeast who are aiming way higher and achieve far more than working 'as slaves'. However "we" don't really like funding the idiotic rice pledging scheme - as it was always destined to crash and burn....as it has done....anyone with basic common sense could see this would have been the end result. And who ends up suffering when it does? the poor farmers. "We" are merely the ones who pay for it (since the government doesn't the taxpayers do).

Edited February 3, 201412 yr by steveromagnino

the Limbo dancers will be glad to hear this and will be warming up to get down LOW LOW LOW

My suggestion is this: If the courts have authority to intervene in the politics at every stage, which I never seen any place on the earth, they should take over the daily running of this country.

Thais love dictatorship.

No, they do not love dictatorship. Most Thais do not know anything about politics.Some says there are vote buying going on, yes that is what politics is about. Everywhere in the world.

The Thai people is currently being robbed by the socaled politicians. After this election it will be a lot of mess. I just hope they will send all the corrupt ones to jail, included the guys from the democrats (face party), which are cleaning their hands now.

The party on Sunday said it was preparing to petition the Constitutional Court to annul the election.

Such a move "could prolong the protests on the streets of Bangkok and create a situation leading to intervention from the military or the judges," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Japan's Kyoto University.

I believe he got it backwards, it will probably be the courts first then the military. I really hope that after Yingluck is impeached, PTP will see the light and drop the fight to keep appointing Shins to the leadership, then there will be no need of military intervention.

So I guess you want suthep as PM. You people living in BKK have no idea who builds your mansions, works in your factories, acts as your slaves. Do you? All the peole from the North and northeast.

It's the Burmese if you hadn't noticed.

I just read in an online dictionary:- Limbo - a place located on the border of Hell.

So, in this instance, the headline writer might be correct.

This is the morphine drip period for Thailand.

How low can you get?

My circle of friends say that I can limbo under a sh-thouse door with a top hat on. What can they be inferring?

Do you come from St Just?

Politics. Money, power, graft, egomania, corruption, and greed.

Are there "any" honest politicians here who would serve the people, and who are not prone to take the whole bait?

Thai people are only presented with a choice between corrupt and fantastically greedy autocrats, for whom the Thai "people" mean nothing.

The rotten little Amnesty brought all this out of the woodwork. As it had to come out.

I hope the money syphoning scheme behind the "rice pledging" will be thrust out into the light of day also.

This is all necessary, but knowing the other side of Thai nature, it could get very noisy, before it gets better.

Those people from the north that eventually beat back the Burmese army, are not good enemies to have,

however the rigid hierarchical nature of Thai life makes the transitioning and transparency necessary for bridging a good modern economy,

with its social structure very difficult to achieve.