midas Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I watched this guy being interviewed on ABC Australia tonight. One of the main reasons for his bullishness is what he describes as a low youth unemployment rate in Thailand. Agree or disagree? http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-11/investors-sceptical-of-thailands-economy/5253540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Senechal Posted February 12, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted February 12, 2014 Unemployment is not a forward indicator, although many in the economics profession have historically tried to use it as such. Simply put: It's a case of putting the cart before the horse. Low unemployment is a trailing effect ("lagging indicator") of a booming economy,, which in turn may or may not be healthy or sustainable. For example, if one looks at the unemployment rate in the USA, one will see that it looks "healthiest" at the peak of bubbles. The late 1990's for example was a period of low unemployment. But anyone who used that fact as a positive forward indicator would have been sorely mistaken. Thailand has been in a historically unprecedented period of growth and expansion for several years now. Hence the low unemployment figure. Using that figure in turn, to predict another identical period of growth and expansion is circular reasoning and logically flawed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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