EURUSD - I give up ....

[MrWorldwide]

OK - netted close to 30 pips over 3 long trades yesterday, but I'm wary of the 'conspiracy' theory that it's all just market movers trying to get as many people to the top of the cliff before they take profits - the 'dumb money'. I'm looking at the daily and hourly charts and that looks like an upward trend to me - any thoughts from the resident FOREX exports ?

(I know you can't live your life looking for conspiracies, but the dumb money concept completely lines up with my view of Wall St and the big institutions here in Oz - they dont run billion dollar businesses handing their cash to Joe Public. Whether a single market maker can reverse a trend in a (genuinely) trending market is a tougher question - again, I'll defer to the board experts )

[Naam]

since the inception of the €UR and the demise of my beloved Deutsche Mark i am trying to sit on the €/$ fence by holding equal shares. not always successful but reasonably balanced.

[MrWorldwide]

Some would argue that the Euro has been the DM in all but name from day one, but that's probably a topic best left for another thread

[Naam]

Some would argue that the Euro has been the DM in all but name from day one, but that's probably a topic best left for another thread

not enough interested parties to discuss the €UR except for a few who submit ignorant comments... their loss

[MrWorldwide]

Naam, you may recall that little table I posted a week or so back showing how badly the major currencies have fared against the baht between Jan 2015 and 2014. Please take a look at the 10-year charts for the AUD and the EUR against our good friend the baht

[Naam]

in Thaivisa discussions the Baht has very few good friends. i am one of his friends since mid 2005 inspite of his unfriendly behaviour getting stronger vs. most (actually all) currencies from which i derive(d) income. with a bit of luck and some gut feeling i managed to stay on good terms with this friend who presently seems to prove again that all wishful thinking and wet dreams "Thai economy and Thai currency are heading for the abyss" is nothing but bla-bla

[paz]

OK - netted close to 30 pips over 3 long trades yesterday, but I'm wary of the 'conspiracy' theory that it's all just market movers trying to get as many people to the top of the cliff before they take profits - the 'dumb money'. I'm looking at the daily and hourly charts and that looks like an upward trend to me - any thoughts from the resident FOREX exports ?

(I know you can't live your life looking for conspiracies, but the dumb money concept completely lines up with my view of Wall St and the big institutions here in Oz - they dont run

billion dollar businesses handing their cash to Joe Public. Whether a single market maker can reverse a trend in a (genuinely) trending market is a tougher question - again, I'll defer to the board experts )

30 pips in 3 trades, that's scalping. With scalping there is no time nor space for considering any theory, be it of conspiracies or not. Just be there, feel the trend, have your objectives clear and stick to the golden rules.

Personally I do not believe that anybody is able to condition EURUSD except under rare condition and for very short period of time. I know that you like Forex, whish you the best and we can discuss anything, but I think there is better venues to do that, this is too much a generalistic forum, better suited for "which local bank is cheaper", etc.

One last thing, EURUSD is generally considered one of the most difficult pairs to trade, and I do agree on that. Try to diversify and study other pairs as well, some suggestions, EURCHF, USDJPN.

Edited February 12, 2014 by paz

[i claudius]

Now this is one place where i agree with Naam, i would have much prefered to hold the deutsche mark than the euro ,i in no way whatsoever agree with the single currency , I to also (although i would love it to go down against the pound) feel that the Baht will stay fairly strong ,though i do fear that Thailand will not get on too well when they are all in it together ,like we are with Europe. Countrys i feel are better on their own.

Edited February 12, 2014 by i claudius

[MrWorldwide]

So you guys dont favor Singapore starting the push for an 'ASIO'across the region ?

As ludicrous as that sounds, I dont see it as any different to Germany admitting Greece to the Union when they clearly cheated on their 'entrance exam'. We reap what we sow, folks.

[djayz]

How much is a "pip"? I've never heard of this expression in this context.

[JesseFrank]

How much is a "pip"? I've never heard of this expression in this context.

Don't worry, it's a term only used by people who want to sound impressive.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/learn/intro-to-currency-trading/conventions/pips

[SheungWan]

Fortunes have been lost predicting the imminent demise of the Euro.

[Naam]

So you guys dont favor Singapore starting the push for an 'ASIO'across the region ?

As ludicrous as that sounds, I dont see it as any different to Germany admitting Greece to the Union when they clearly cheated on their 'entrance exam'. We reap what we sow, folks.

whor or what is ASIO?

[paz]

So you guys dont favor Singapore starting the push for an 'ASIO'across the region ?

As ludicrous as that sounds, I dont see it as any different to Germany admitting Greece to the Union when they clearly cheated on their 'entrance exam'. We reap what we sow, folks.

whor or what is ASIO?

An hypotetical pan-asiatic currency that is in the dream of few, and just a little less abstract than discussing theology

[Naam]

So you guys dont favor Singapore starting the push for an 'ASIO'across the region ?

As ludicrous as that sounds, I dont see it as any different to Germany admitting Greece to the Union when they clearly cheated on their 'entrance exam'. We reap what we sow, folks.

We reap what we sow, folks

then we slaughter the sow and produce delicious sausages and ham.

[Naam]

So you guys dont favor Singapore starting the push for an 'ASIO'across the region ?

As ludicrous as that sounds, I dont see it as any different to Germany admitting Greece to the Union when they clearly cheated on their 'entrance exam'. We reap what we sow, folks.

whor or what is ASIO?

An hypotetical pan-asiatic currency that is in the dream of few, and just a little less abstract than discussing theology

something like the quest of finding 12 virgins age 21-29 in Pattaya's Walking Street at midnight?

[Tomtomtom69]

Clearly the Asio is a reference to a possible single Asean currency.

[MrWorldwide]

How much is a "pip"? I've never heard of this expression in this context.

Don't worry, it's a term only used by people who want to sound impressive.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/learn/intro-to-currency-trading/conventions/pips

All I care about is whether my pips are positive or negative. I dont like the negative pips

Depending on the currency pair and the size of your trade, a pip can be anything from pennies to serious shekels. Nothing wrong with that if it's only a demo account, but it's easy to see how quickly that could erode anything resembling an overall profit.

DATE/TIME TYPE CURRENCY PAIR QUANTITY ENTRY EXIT PROFIT STOP LOSS T. STOP PROFIT ($) PROFIT (PIPS) REASON

2/11/2014 5:31:24 PM Long EUR/USD 7,000 1.36396 1.36775 26.53 37.9 User Close

2/12/2014 10:06:43 PM Long USD/CHF 15,000 0.8985 0.89605 -41.01 -24.5 Stop Loss

2/11/2014 12:46:22 AM Long EUR/USD 15,000 1.36658 1.36815 1.36801 23.55 15.7 Take Profit

2/10/2014 9:16:26 PM Long EUR/USD 10,000 1.36658 1.36627 -3.10 -3.1 Stop Loss

2/9/2014 10:28:39 PM Long EUR/USD 15,000 1.36268 1.36433 1.36128 24.75 16.5 Take Profit

2/9/2014 9:57:37 PM Long EUR/JPY 75,000 139.538 139.525 -9.52 -1.3 Stop Loss

2/9/2014 8:32:59 PM Long EUR/USD 35,000 1.36246 1.36259 4.55 1.3 Stop Loss

2/9/2014 8:32:59 PM Long EUR/USD 35,000 1.36246 1.36265 6.65 1.9 User Close

2/9/2014 5:58:04 PM Long EUR/USD 5,000 1.36221 1.36247 1.30 2.6 Stop Loss

2/6/2014 7:13:22 PM Long EUR/USD 50,000 1.35905 1.35913 4.00 0.8 User Close

Edited February 13, 2014 by MrWorldwide

[paz]

DATE/TIME TYPE CURRENCY PAIR QUANTITY ENTRY EXIT PROFIT STOP LOSS T. STOP PROFIT ($) PROFIT (PIPS) REASON

2/11/2014 5:31:24 PM Long EUR/USD 7,000 1.36396 1.36775 26.53 37.9 User Close

2/12/2014 10:06:43 PM Long USD/CHF 15,000 0.8985 0.89605 -41.01 -24.5 Stop Loss

2/11/2014 12:46:22 AM Long EUR/USD 15,000 1.36658 1.36815 1.36801 23.55 15.7 Take Profit

2/10/2014 9:16:26 PM Long EUR/USD 10,000 1.36658 1.36627 -3.10 -3.1 Stop Loss

2/9/2014 10:28:39 PM Long EUR/USD 15,000 1.36268 1.36433 1.36128 24.75 16.5 Take Profit

2/9/2014 9:57:37 PM Long EUR/JPY 75,000 139.538 139.525 -9.52 -1.3 Stop Loss

2/9/2014 8:32:59 PM Long EUR/USD 35,000 1.36246 1.36259 4.55 1.3 Stop Loss

2/9/2014 8:32:59 PM Long EUR/USD 35,000 1.36246 1.36265 6.65 1.9 User Close

2/9/2014 5:58:04 PM Long EUR/USD 5,000 1.36221 1.36247 1.30 2.6 Stop Loss

2/6/2014 7:13:22 PM Long EUR/USD 50,000 1.35905 1.35913 4.00 0.8 User Close

It's good to post logs, unfortunately it takes a lot of time for others to analize them. Ideally one would need a chart with the entries and exits shown, so to evaluate on which criteria actions (beside stops) were made, especially in relation to trend. That would be like the mt4 backtesting chart results, if you ever used it. But I'm not aware of such a tool or script that does that.

Edited February 14, 2014 by paz

[MrWorldwide]

I

[onlycw]

The Euro is, to quote a book by Bernard Connoly worth a read, The Rotten Heart of Europe". A requirement for France to allow German reunification. Sick at its core, with festering messes not just in Greece... I would stay well away from the Euro!

[Naam]

The Euro is, to quote a book by Bernard Connoly worth a read, The Rotten Heart of Europe". A requirement for France to allow German reunification. Sick at its core, with festering messes not just in Greece... I would stay well away from the Euro!

it must be because you possess a wealth of no idea concerning forex. your thread "is it time to worry?" is evidence for my claim.

instead of reading obscure books you should look at facts, i.e. how the €UR fared vs. other currencies since its inception.

[paz]

The Euro is, to quote a book by Bernard Connoly worth a read, The Rotten Heart of Europe". A requirement for France to allow German reunification. Sick at its core, with festering messes not just in Greece... I would stay well away from the Euro!

it must be because you possess a wealth of no idea concerning forex. your thread "is it time to worry?" is evidence for my claim.

instead of reading obscure books you should look at facts, i.e. how the €UR fared vs. other currencies since its inception.

An outdated, politically motivated book written by a Briton for British purposes.

While they should worry on what will happen if Scotland gains indipendence and what currency would they adopt.

[MrWorldwide]

How much is a "pip"? I've never heard of this expression in this context.

Don't worry, it's a term only used by people who want to sound impressive.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/learn/intro-to-currency-trading/conventions/pips

It's only impressive when you can consistently make positive pips whilst minimising your negative pips - an estimated 95% of retail FOREX traders cannot do this over a 12-month period. I'm learning slowly - Friday afternoon was the first time I went into a trade with any sort of confidence in the technical indicators revealing a solid trend, and I'm very happy with the outcome - so much for trading like a machine. Onward and upward.

[paz]

It's only impressive when you can consistently make positive pips whilst minimising your negative pips - an estimated 95% of retail FOREX traders cannot do this over a 12-month period.

Not only that, on average 2/3 or more of said accounts have lost more than made.